Best business Ideas for a down ecomomy

[ryanbleau]

trying to get ahead of the curve and hoping the older people here, who've made money when the economy takes a dump or just people who have lived through it , can shed some light on the needs of a declining economy . Trying to set myself up for the next fall, which is coming very soon . Just looking for ideas and what peoples needs tend to be , their compulsions, there wants, the things they must have or the services that are born from a shitty economy. Currently my location is over-saturated with services and there isnt a whole lot of the pie for anyone else. Been having a hard time lately getting my head around the big picture and finding a need to fulfill.

 

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[lowtek]

Suppose you create a business exclusively around peoples' needs in a down economy.

How well will that business do when the economy starts growing again?

What is the ratio of the amount of time spent in downturn to that of relative prosperity?

Conversely, what happens to businesses that are built around growing economies, when the economy no longer grows?

Think on these, answer them, and then reflect on what that means with regards to your original question.

 

[townhaus]

IMO the economy should have little effect on your business or goals - it's such a small piece of the total puzzle that it becomes negligible.

'The economy' affects Public companies that know their stock prices are going to be 90% correlated to the S&P 500 index, and it can be an excuse for failure when 'everybody else' is supposed to be struggling too.

Most businesses are going to take 2-5 years to grow, and good luck with predicting where the economy is going to be then.

I wouldn't assume that there is going to be a downturn and let that affect what kind of business i want to pursue.

 

[nradam123]

When economy crashed in 2008 I was 17 years old. And I did not start any business back then. I am not sure how many people in this forum had pushed business through a shitty economy, i am also interested to hear a few stories.

Basically, when economy is down people will not have disposable income. So they will stop using all the nice to haves. So companies that sell nice to haves will lose tremendous amount of revenue. If revenue decreases more than operating cost company will run in negative cashflow. Its a dangerous and sad situation.

Companies that sell essential products will not have a lot of issues. Sure, revenue will decrease because people will spend less but they won't completely stop eating food, for example

I have written a long article on how a company got almost killed during 2008 recession and how they actually made changes in the business that resulted in the company actually becoming better than what it used to be. Here is the link.

Lastly, you should not worry too much about economy and all now. Big economy fall usually occur due to the long term debt cycle which happens only once in 50-60 years. Its the last thing you want to bother with. Just build business that takes care of the CENTS commandments and you are good.

 

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[GuestUser155]

The realization of a "down economy" usually happens near the very bottom. This is because your average joe doesn't have a damn clue about anything related to the economy and only starts feeling its effects when his highers start penalizing his wage and/or start trimming the fat that is under-preforming/overpaid employees.

This is the same reason most of them suck at investing. They're too late in getting in on the trend. By the time it's going down from the peak, they're getting in. It's lunacy.

How does this apply to your business ventures? Well, when most conversations start with "economy's in the shitter, huh?" you should bounce on the opportunity. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" (Warren Buffet, although I don't have the highest opinion of him as a person, he's got some good proverbs). The worst is likely over. The fire has subdued, destroying the forest with it. But, the ground is fertile with carbon and ready to regrow stronger. It's probably one of the best times to start your business (atleast the framework), though it might take a year for spending to get back to a reasonable rate.

George Soros had some large puts on the S&P earlier this year and it looks like they've paid off -- that means he was betting that it would fall and it did 2.5% earlier this month (also, the big dogs know things we don't so I'd take their positions and stances into account). Although, my brief skimming of news doesn't seem to tell me at what strike they were, so I'm not sure if he thinks the market will go lower of if he's cashed out already.

Anyway, the market has had a ~8 year crash cycle for sometime (that means around every 8 years it crashes, it's a truism in some circles), but with quantum easing and the fed's blatant manipulation we might no longer have huge crashes like we used to (50% crashes). You could even say we already had our crash (since it's been 7 years since 07-09 crash) in last August and December and that means that there's no way but up (or even that this recent correction is testing the market's strength and we've only seen the tip of the iceberg).

Got a bit carried away there, but I hope it was atleast somewhat informational.

Anyway, the only two needs I see during a depression are jobs and money (whether through jobs or maintenance, and not slashing, of wages). And in this case, a mutual fund that outperforms even when everyone (other funds) is down is what they need. Perhaps you could look into a service that helps them find temporary employment or that helps them save/penny-pinch during tough times.

Unless, of course, there's other needs I don't see. Are there?

 

[TonyStark]

Sweatpants
Netflix
Political signs

 

[ryanbleau]

Sweatpants
Netflix
Political signs

You forgot dorittos and mountain dew

 

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[ApparentHorizon]

trying to get ahead of the curve and hoping the older people here, who've made money when the economy takes a dump or just people who have lived through it , can shed some light on the needs of a declining economy . Trying to set myself up for the next fall, which is coming very soon . Just looking for ideas and what peoples needs tend to be , their compulsions, there wants, the things they must have or the services that are born from a shitty economy. Currently my location is over-saturated with services and there isnt a whole lot of the pie for anyone else. Been having a hard time lately getting my head around the big picture and finding a need to fulfill.

Step 1. Short TSLA
Step 2. Go into hibernation
Step 3. Retire
Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor and idk what im actually talking about. invest at your own risk

Anything that will save costs. If I had the room for another project, I'd be all in on software/AI for institutional banks.

 

[Runum]

Some businesses that thrived were trash out services that cleaned out foreclosed properties. Repossession services would also do well. Businesses that helped banks reclaim there collateral.

 

[devine]

There are always people who are able to pay $1000 for Product X, there are always people who cannot afford to pay 10$. There are always people who will or will not pay, depending on how hard they want it and what you do about it.
Economical circumstances are nothing more than weather. Today it's cold and more people stay at home. Does it mean that your business should account for that? Unless you're in a process of optimization and have a responsive business model - no. You have a plenty of other, more important things to account for.
Does Apple account for that? No.
Does Uber account for that? No.
Do other businesses which success doesn't depend on a direction the wind blows today account for that? No. Because it's not what defines a successful business.

Apparently people don't realize that there is no such thing as "down economy". It doesn't matter what 95% of population goes through - your business will be sustained by other 5%.
Your main question should be: "Where is my 5% and what they need?". Otherwise you account for things that ultimately have nothing to do with your business.

 

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[ryanbleau]

There are always people who are able to pay $1000 for Product X, there are always people who cannot afford to pay 10$. There are always people who will or will not pay, depending on how hard they want it and what you do about it.
Economical circumstances are nothing more than weather. Today it's cold and more people stay at home. Does it mean that your business should account for that? Unless you're in a process of optimization and have a responsive business model - no. You have a plenty of other, more important things to account for.
Does Apple account for that? No.
Does Uber account for that? No.
Does other businesses which success doesn't depend on a direction the wind blows today account for that? No. Because it's not what defines a successful business.

Apparently people don't realize that there is no such thing as "down economy". It doesn't matter what 95% of population goes through - your business will be sustained by other 5%.
Your main question should be: "Where is my 5% and what they need?". Otherwise you account for things that ultimately have nothing to do with your business.

This is pretty profound post. thank you

 

[Runum]

There are always people who are able to pay $1000 for Product X, there are always people who cannot afford to pay 10$. There are always people who will or will not pay, depending on how hard they want it and what you do about it.
Economical circumstances are nothing more than weather. Today it's cold and more people stay at home. Does it mean that your business should account for that? Unless you're in a process of optimization and have a responsive business model - no. You have a plenty of other, more important things to account for.
Does Apple account for that? No.
Does Uber account for that? No.
Do other businesses which success doesn't depend on a direction the wind blows today account for that? No. Because it's not what defines a successful business.

Apparently people don't realize that there is no such thing as "down economy". It doesn't matter what 95% of population goes through - your business will be sustained by other 5%.
Your main question should be: "Where is my 5% and what they need?". Otherwise you account for things that ultimately have nothing to do with your business.

Disagree. This is a great statement if your business is global or can serve globally. Your statement is also qualified by the definition of successful.

There are businesses that are regional or seasonal and their traffic is dependent on forces outside of their control.

Real Estate businesses are affected by local market conditions. They may have to adjust their strategies due to local occupancy or sales rates.

Seasonal businesses are subject to the weather conditions and customer attendance

 

[Andy Black]

Appliance repairs does pretty good in a downturn.

 

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[devine]

Disagree. This is a great statement if your business is global or can serve globally. Your statement is also qualified by the definition of successful.

There are businesses that are regional or seasonal and their traffic is dependent on forces outside of their control.

Real Estate businesses are affected by local market conditions. They may have to adjust their strategies due to local occupancy or sales rates.

Seasonal businesses are subject to the weather conditions and customer attendance

This is why I mentioned responsive business models and businesses that depend on today's news. But even these businesses are actually built on more solid ground, it just seems like environment makes them oscillate.

There are 2 major real estates businesses I follow in my country, both started when real estate has gone downhill. They have succeeded for too many reasons other than market conditions.

 

[Runum]

This is why I mentioned responsive business models and businesses that depend on today's news. But even these businesses are actually built on more solid ground, it just seems like environment makes them oscillate.

There are 2 major real estates businesses I follow in my country, both started when real estate has gone downhill. They have succeeded for too many reasons other than market conditions.

I understand, but you are probably not aware of the adjustments that they have had to make during their years of success. Adjustments dictated by the market conditions.

My point is that to make a generalized statement about all businesses and their success is leading the reader to absolutes. These absolutes may not be true in all cases. I believe that smart businesses are always monitoring market conditions and which way the wind is blowing to adjust and thrive. Even Apple and Uber

 

[tflfguy]

repairs - not just appliances, but roofing, heating/air, windows, cars, etc.
tattoos - both 'putting on' and taking off
funerals - (a bit morbid)

 

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