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TrillAmbition
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I really don't like to do the altcoin casino for price action since I tend to look for undervalued sectors that can survive multiple marketcycles. That said, here is my 3 cents:I'll bite. I am a BTC hodler with some Eth as well. What would you say are the best bets (gambles) one can take on the altcoins to make the biggest gains with throwaway money between say now and February?
I would say I have a moderate understanding as i've been in the space for a little. Curious to hear your opinion on which altcoins? thanks
I like to break down all the categories for different sub crypto use cases.
Boomer coins - OG coins that have survived different market cycles. Litecoin and BCH really should eventually have their own run. Historically they like to oscillate on the btc ratio. So historically their time will come.
Computer utility tokens- Think storage and computing. So Storj, sia, filecoin etc.
Privacy - I believe this is one of the most undervalued sectors. Monero's transactions are 10.4% of bitcoin's daily transactions but the matkercap is under 5 billion. There already are some problems with blacklisting of bitcoin addresses and UTXO taint.
I will add a bonus one since I think DEFI is really hot as a topic but it is really undervalued in the long term. AAVE has an institutional play that big players want to get into since there is such a need for liquidity in crypto and the big boys are getting fomo.
Are most coin’s parabolic rise due to whales and vested big players’s pumping?
There has been research about btc being pumped by tether printing in 2017.
There has been article writing about ten wallets owning 70 percent of shiba inu token.
If you look at most infrastructure layer one coins that rise to the top of the table today, these so called ether they have a gigantic market cap but relative much few address holders.
It seems like unlike regulated industry in which improved fundamental leads to price discovery, big crypto players seem to pump their coin price up as a form of marketing.
The fear that that exchanges have been operating at a fractional reserve has been an ongoing fear since before mt gox. For good reason since there have been many exchanges that have operated at a fractional reserve and that leads to users losing funds when their scheme collapses. Tether has been a lot more transparent with their proof of funds. They hold cash equivalent hodlings for their cash reserves which worry me since this adds systemic risk if the real world market outside of crypto also has issues (they hold commercial paper, junk bonds , cd blah blah. ) It isn't as bad in my opinion as it is portrayed. I believe that they are secretive on some parts since they enable liquidity to a lot of exchanges when bank accounts would close and nobody would give exchanges a bank account. So they operate as a shadowy middle layer.
I am not a fan of a lot of the meme tokens. I had doge way back in the day. I got tired of keeping up with a lot of the random projects last market cycle. There has always been coins that come and go during market cycles. Back in 2015 there were a lot of random altcoins which where just heavy marketing and nothing added forks that didn't survive the bear market. There were masternode coins that never survived. There were NFTs on top of bitcoin back in the day. There is a lot of "history doesn't repeat itself but sure rhymes" to a lot of crypto.
I will tell you that since most coins are on public chains the distribution is really easy to follow.
I honestly missed out on a lot of the "ethereum" killer projects. I was around during the early ethereum days and saw the project grow really big. I saw the DAO hack and fork that created ETC. I don't find a lot of the solutions out there interesting. Many like BSC are centralized and only have 21 nodes. I am interested in a couple of chains like xdai chain and polygon (matic) since they offer a right now solution for lower txs cost in a more "decentralized" way. But at the end of the day, most of these chains are really just offloading what ethereum does into their own smaller used chain which is cheaper or more centralized. Ethereum's virtual machine (EVM) is the goto world standard for smart contracts. Every chain seems to be compatible with it. The world of tomorrow will have many chains but I am biased and believe ETH will be the top dog for a long time to come. You can easily bridge assets from one chain to another now.So all chains win.
I will say that the biggest industry innovation in smart contracts would be a trustless private smart contract platform.
The industry is way more regulated now. I miss the real wild west days. There was a time that you could launch revolutionary tech, crowd fund it and create an exchange and nobody would bother you.Now people go to jail or get fined for not adhering to outdated regulation that has been retrofitted for technology which does not play well with borders when the internet has no borders.
There will always be pump and dumps, there will always be marketers selling shit. Same as "buy my course" bro marketers etc. The more popular a technology gets the more you will have scammers and snake oil salesmen. Don't be a money chaser and look for building value
I'd like to hear a little more about your story and would like your opinion on something
1. Did you start with mining or trading?
2. What are you mostly focused on now?
3. Also, what are your thoughts on GameFi?
I started with developing. I wasn't interested in the money for dollars. I was dumbfounded that there finally was open source money and it allowed digital wealth in a way that nobody could stop. I have a pretty big bias to free markets and believe that Keynesian economics create more problems as evident by 2008. I think austrian economics has more merits and the markets need to let themselves be the real force behind growth and decay. Bitcoin has those economic politics hard coded in its existence. Many of those early bitcoiners were liberterian for a reason. They saw bitcoin as a power dynamic shifting technology which could take power away from centralized money printers. This is what drew a lot of the early folks.
I think the market is ready to finally bridge digital ownership to physical objects. I have had some ideas for real estate on ethereum since 2016 but the market was just not there yet and there was some less than clear words coming from the sec (I had lawyers look into it). NFTs have their real power in digital titles and reits and that is soemething that I have been waiting to get back to building. Another thing that I am curious on is public chain analysis for trading / data. There already is trading quants who analyse bitcoin in/out flows to exchanges to predict short term price volatility. Facebook built billion dollar business on your user data. There is way more valuable data on public chains. I think privacy coins are really important for those reasons .
I am not much of a gamer so will tell you this is one sector I am not super firsthand on. But I do have some out the box view on the metaverse in general. The last 2 years has seen an explosion in money printing. So this is unlimited liquidity. Inflation is about to get a lot worse and CPI does not accurately reflect that. "Income inequality" really should be "Inflation ruined the standard of living". I see that as the biggest asset buble for everything of all time. So if you own real estate it will go to the moon. But there are many people who will never get to own it now and will be priced out from a lot of what people used to be able to get. So there will be a large influx of life long renters who will spend most of their income since they have no point to saving or investing (in their eyes). Stuck in a lifelong hourly job with no outlook in romantic partner, families or home ownerhsip they will become the ultimate consumer.
Enter the metaverse. With VR the escapism that virtual worlds will bring will be huge. Crammed in a tiny apartment they will spend real world money to own digital real estate in a video game.
I know that is a depressing view but I really do think there will be a new class of ultimate consumers that have been left behind by the explosive changes in the world of tomorrow.