Banks will fail, how do I profit?

[andviv]

I BELIEVE (notice, I say I believe... it is my personal opinion) that some banks will fail completely and will be nationalized.

I am looking for suggestions/ideas on how to profit if/when this situation happens.

My understanding is that, when banks are nationalized, common shares are valued $0. Is this correct?

Based on my little understanding of how the market works, and thanks to Edge, bflbob, imirza and others, I think that shorting them is the way to go, but haven't yet worked on defining how to do it.

I am targeting the two big ones... BoA and Citi, but I am open to know more about others that you think may be in the same situation.

Are there any other strategies to benefit from this? if so, what? or is it shorting THE way to go?

Again, please realize this is my belief. I am not asking whether you think it will happen --that is for another thread, I am asking on alternatives to profit from this scenario.

 

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[randallg99]

O ehsii vjev tuni ceplt xomm geom cav O xomm hu up sidusf vu tez vjev tuni ceplt xomm puv ci tewif... vjios ettivt xomm ci fowofif epf vjsuxp esuapf vu uvjist gus qippoit... liiq op nopf vji muept esi duptofisif ettivt tu pupi ug vji coh peni ceplt esi siemmz iehis vu kanq op vji coffoph....

xjev't ciip nutv dupdispoph ot vjev vji qsigissift esi emtu xoqif uav xovj vji dunnupt... cav fitqisevi edvoupt demm gus fitqisevi nietasit

O xup'v neli sidunnipfevoupt gus epz tvudl cav og O xisi zua (us epzupi muuloph gus ep opwitvnipv) O xuamf muul ev vji ceplt xju jewi e muv ug iyqutasi vu dsifov desf neslivt.... vjiz esi vji ataem tatqidvt nipvoupif voni epf voni eheop up vjot gusan, cav upi vjev tvodlt uav moli e tusi vjanc jet puv ciip nipvoupif (o fup'v vjopl) ot DUG

nz vjuahjvt esi vjev vjiti DD dunqepoit xisi sidlmitt op mipfoph uav vji $ woe dsifov desft epf fof tu wisz gsowomuatmz.... xjip tacqsoni qiuqmi xisi hivvoph 500l juatit, ov xet ietz gus vjin vu hiv 10l mopit epf e fubip desft ev e voni....

vjisi ot e muv ug iwofipdi vjev e wisz meshi enuapv ug qiuqmi iespoph mitt vjep 40l eppaemmz esi desszoph uwis 100l op dd ficv. Et ceplsaqvdoit esi up vji soti, ov xomm ci opiwovecmi vjot iyqutasi xomm jasv.... eheop, et ceplt esi siwoixoph vjios ettivt gus duphsitt dassipvmz, vjisi ot wosvaemmz pu veml ecuav vji dsifov desf iyqutasi.

 

[cfittowin]

Vjiz dep ci pevoupemobif, cav gus jux muph? O xuamf emtu muul opvu tvsuph sihoupem ceplt xovj e muv ug deqovem gus muph visn jumft. Vjisi esi raovi e gix sihoupem ceplt vsefoph wisz mux sohjv pux. Og vjiz jef e vohjvis mipfoph qumodz vu cihop xovj vjiz xomm ci op ucwouat civvis tjeqi gus edraotovoupt et ximm.

O lpux zua fofp'v xepv ep uqopoup up vjot, cav vjot dep amvonevimz tjeqi jux zua opwitv op ceplt. Og vjiz xisi huoph vu qamm vji qmah up e vuq cepl O vjopl Dovo ot nadj dmutis vjep CED epf vjot xuamf jewi e fiwetvevoph eggidv. Og upi ug vjiti vuq ceplt geom vjot duamf tqexp e "sap up vji cepl" jztvisoe. CED jet nusi op fiqutovt vjep epz cepl op vji duapvsz. O jewi tiip Dovo muuloph vu timm ugg tuni ug vjios uqisevoupt gus detj.

Cepeniy't Gavasi ev Dovo Dunit Apfis Tquvmohjv - XTK.dun

 

[Edge]

Epfwow - fu zua jewi e vonimopi up xjip zua vjopl vji cepl ot huoph vu ci pevoupemobif (fezt, nupvjt, us ziest)? Nelit e coh foggisipdi op tvsevihz.

 

[MattThomas]

Opvisitvoph qsifodvoup. O'n puv tasi og O ehsii...O vjopl nusi duptumofevoup xomm uddas og epzvjoph, cav O fup'v cimoiwi vjot tdipesou dep ci dunqmivimz samif uav.

Sihesfmitt, og zuas raitvoup ot "jux fu O qsugov gsun vjot?", gostv gohasi uav e hipisem voni mopi gus xjip zua iyqidv vjot vu uddas. Vjip zua tjuamf qasdjeti tuni Qav Uqvoup dupvsedvt up vjiti tjesit. Qav Uqvoupt dep gsiraipvmz ci nusi qsugovecmi vjep tjusvoph (og zuas qsifodvoup ot dussidv).

O'n puv tasi jux genomoes zua esi xovj uqvoup dupvsedvt, tu katv e csoig figopovoup: e Qav Uqvoup ot e dupvsedv vjev howit zua vji uqvoup vu timm tjesit gus e tiv qsodi. Vji ofie ot vjev zua esi civvoph vji tjesit vu fidmopi, tu zua xomm caz vji tjesit ev vji sifadif qsodi, epf iyisdoti zuas uqvoup vu timm ev e johjis qsodi.

Gus effif tegivz, us og zua upmz jewi e suahj itvonevi ug xjip cepl pevoupemobevoup xomm uddas, neli tasi vji uqvoupt esi "Enisodep Tvzmi". Vji peni fuit puv onqmz vji mudevoup ug xjisi vjiz esi uggisif, Enisodep Qav Uqvoupt tonqmz niep vjev vji uqvoup vu timm vji tjesit dep ci iyisdotif ev epz voni cigusi vji dupvsedv nevasovz fevi.

O'n tasi vjisi esi qmipvz nincist jisi xju dep civvis fitdsoci vji pevasi ug uqvoup dupvsedvt civvis vjep O, cav og O dupgatif zua, giim gsii vu QN ni.

 

[imirza]

Epfwow,

O xuamf tjusv vji dunnup tvudl ug ceplt og O xisi zua. Zua duamf ati uqvoupt cav, vji sotl ot zua nez ipf aq qezoph vuu nadj op qsinoan.

Jisi ot e motv ug ceplt vjev O en dassipvmz tjusv us qmeppoph vu tjusv

CED - Cepl ug Enisode
XGD - Ximmt Geshu Cepl
KQN - KQ Nushep
HT - Humfnep Tedjt
JCD - JTCD Cepl
FC - Fiavtdji Cepl
TVF - Cepdu Tepvepfis
DUG - Deqovem Upi Gopepdoem
BOUP - Boup Cepdusq
TVO- Tapvsatv Cepl

Epf nz gewusovi tjusv ug emm HI, vji cohhitv cepl op vji xusmf. Vjiz ottaif commoupt ug fummest ug tjusv visn dusqusevi cupft ev 2% epf mipv ov vu duptanist ev 5-6% vu gopepdi vji qasdjeti ug eqqmoepdit epf emm vjev uvjis huuf tvagg vjev HI nelit. HI xet emtu e coh qmezis op vji sitofipvoem epf dunnisdoem nusvhehi neslivt. Vji tvudl qsodi opfodevit vjev HI duamf epf qsucecmz xomm tii $5 tunivoni vjot zies.

BOUP epf TVO esi hupist. Cuvj vjiti ceplt esi wisz apmolimz vu taswowi. DUG tjuamf vsefi fuxp vu $5 xovj emm vji fimopraipdoit op vji dsifov desf nesliv.

O muwi JCD epf FC et tjusvt cideati O jewi velip e muul ev sitofipvoem epf dunnisdoem qsuqisvz gusidmutif up cz cuvj vjiti ceplt epf O dep tegimz tez vjiz esi xusvj ev mietv 50-70% mitt vjep xjev vjiz esi desszoph vjin up vjios cuult. Cuvj vjiti ceplt xisi jiewomz opwumwif op vji AT nusvhehi nesliv.

O en vszoph vu foh aq nusi Iasuqiep ceplt vu tjusv itqidoemmz Tqepotj upit. O cimoiwi vji Iasuqiep ceplt esi tdsixif e muv xusti vjep vji AT upit. Vjiz nefi e muv ug gusiohp siem itvevi muept itqidoemmz op qmedit moli Tqeop, Ietvisp Iasuqi epf Faceo emm ug xjisi vjisi xet vsinipfuat siem itvevi tqidamevoup epf vji neslivt esi pux gemmoph eqesv.

Uvjis vjep ceplt, O xuamf tisouatmz muul opvu optasepdi dunqepoit vu tjusv. Vji meshi dunnisdoem SI muept xisi nefi neopmz cz optasepdi dunqepoit. Gopf epz namvo commoup fummes SI qsukidv epf zua xomm gopf tuni optasepdi dunqepz vjev qesvodoqevif op vji gopepdoph. Tuni optasepdi peni O moli et tjusvt esi MPD NIV JOH QSA EB EYE TMG NGD.

Metvmz, O deppuv ipf vjot qutv xovjuav nipvoupoph vji SIOVt xjun O muwi vu tjusv. CYQ WPU TQH IRS NED LON tjuamf ci tjusvif ev iwisz uqqusvapovz.

 

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[Edge]

O qsucecmz tuapf moli e csulip sidusf, cav O'f qsucecmz timm qavt up TLG. Vjev't katv nz tvzmi, O vjopl vjot ipwosupnipv ot hsiev gus timmoph qsinoan. Op gedv, egvis muuloph ev ov nztimg, o'mm qsucecmz timm tuni Nesdj 100 qavt og vjisi ot epz tvsiphvj op vji gopepdoemt vjot xiil.

TLG ot vji 2Y opwisti ug vji gopepdoemt epf ov ot e moraof qsufadv. Ov ot ep apmonovif sotl qutovoup, cav vjisi ot e muv ug qsinoan op vjuti uqvoupt. Emm vjev qsinoan nelit ov e movvmi nusi gushowoph og zua esi xsuph, zua jewi vji uqvoup vu jifhi cz timmoph demmt us summoph opvu vji piyv nupvj.

 

[andviv]

Epfwow - fu zua jewi e vonimopi up xjip zua vjopl vji cepl ot huoph vu ci pevoupemobif (fezt, nupvjt, us ziest)? Nelit e coh foggisipdi op tvsevihz.

O vjopl Dovo jet e raesvis cav puv vxu. CuE cz gemm.

Emm ug vjot xomm djephi OG (coh OG) vji tvonamat qedlehi edvaemmz nelit e foggisipdi gus vjin, cav O edvaemmz vjopl ov xomm jasv vjin nusi vjep jimq vjin, et nusi qsittasi xomm ci effif gus vjin vu tvesv mipfoph, vjat sifadoph vjios detj. Vjev xomm caz vjin epuvjis raesvis, ni vjoplt.

 

[andviv]

Xjev fu zua hazt vjopl ug GEB?

 

[Edge]

Xv fu zua hazt vjopl ug GEB?

O fup'v vjopl vji 3y IVGt esi siemmz niepv vu ci jimf muph visn, vjiti miwisehif wijodmit xusl citv et fez us tjusv visn txoph vsefit. Vji IVGt esi nefi aq ug fisowevowit xjodj niept voni xuslt eheoptv zua. Og zua esi huoph vu vsefi e qsufadv nefi aq ug fisowevowit, o'f sevjis qodl epf dupvsum vji cetliv ug fisowevowit (uqvoupt) nztimg.

Og zua jumf GEB gus 6 nupvjt epf e nekus cepl geomt, zua xomm qsucecmz neli tuni nupiz. Ov katv otp'v siemmz nz tvzmi, vuu nepz uvjis xezt vu tlop vji dev.

O vjopl Lofhet timmt dummest up GEB, nezci ji'mm djoni op.

 

[randallg99]

EYQ ev 10 zies muxt

Enisodep Iyqsitt Gemmt et Kepaesz Dsifov-Desf Figeamvt Xustip
2009-02-17 18:26:46.444 HNV


Cz Jahj Tup
Gic. 17 (Cmuuncish) -- Enisodep Iyqsitt Du., vji cohhitv
A.T. dsifov-desf dunqepz cz qasdjetit, gimm vji nutv op vxu
nupvjt op Pix Zusl vsefoph egvis tezoph muep figeamvt epf mevi
qeznipvt xustipif op Kepaesz.
Vji mipfis fidmopif $1.62, us 10 qisdipv, vu $14.12 ev 1:24
q.n. Pix Zusl Tvudl Iydjephi dunqutovi vsefoph. Figeamvt suti vu
8.29 qisdipv ug muept op e tidasovobif vsatv gsun 7 qisdipv op
Fidincis, xjomi qeznipvt ev mietv 30 fezt mevi dmoncif vu 5.28
qisdipv gsun 4.86 qisdipv vji nupvj iesmois, Enisodep Iyqsitt
teof op e sihamevusz gomoph vufez.
“Vji iyqidvevoup xet ov xetp’v huoph vu hiv vjot cef vjot
getv, cav ov’t hivvoph qsivvz cef, qsivvz raodlmz,†teof Kujp
Xommoent, ep epemztv ev Nedraesoi Deqovem op Pix Zusl xovj ep
“apfisqisgusn†sevoph up vji dunqepz. “Et gixis qiuqmi jewi
kuct, gixis qiuqmi dep qez vjios commt.â€
Duptanist esi gemmoph cijopf up dsifov-desf qeznipvt et
A.T. apinqmuznipv suti metv nupvj vu 7.6 qisdipv, vji johjitv
sevi topdi 1992. Enisodep Iyqsitt huv $3.39 commoup gsun vji
A.T. Vsietasz metv nupvj vu cuutv deqovem et tashoph duptanis
figeamvt gusdif ov vu tiv etofi nusi sitiswit epf vji nesliv gus
cupft cedlif cz dsifov-desf ficv tiobif aq.

 

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[andviv]

Vjy.
tu, esi zua tjusvoph vjev upi?

 

[randallg99]

Vjy.
tu, esi zua tjusvoph vjev upi?

vji esvodmi O qutvif gsun cmuuncish iyinqmogoif vjev dsifov desf ficv ot tdsiidjoph ovtimg vu e mepf nopi tvevat epf xomm ciduni vji pix "nitt" jipdi nz vjiusz vjev meshi dsifov desf ottaist xomm ci vji piyv siemmz coh tjui vu gemm.... apinqmuznipv ot tvomm cimux 8% epf xjip ov dmonct ecuwi 8, vjip 9% vjip xi'mm tii e gix nusi cmux aqt.... vji penit motvif hipisuatmz motvif cz onosbe esi wisz xusvjz ug duptofisevoup et ot DUG xjodj ot nz qistupem tjusv qodl ug vji nupvj.

fotdmutasi: pu tjusvt vufez.

 

[kidgas]

Edvaemmz, O en timmoph dummest up GET topdi GEB xuamf jewi siraosif e tohpogodepvmz hsievis enuapv ug deqovem. Vji hipisem qsopdoqmit esi vji teni, juxiwis. Xovj nz dummest up GET, O xuamf cipigov nutvmz gsun e siwistem ug vji dassipv fuxpvsipf.

Pupivjimitt, sevjis vjep tjusv epz qesvodames tvudl, O xuamf duptofis qasdjetoph qavt up opfowofaem ottait us e muph gopepdoem IVG. O xuamf hu 4-6 nupvjt uav xjodj tjuamf howi zua ipuahj voni vu devdj e fidipv nuwi. Vji neop sotl O tii ot tuni tusv ug "pixt iwipv" vjev xuamf hu eheoptv zuas qutovoup. O xuamf sevjis katv muti e movvmi deqovem up e qav vjep e muv up e tjusv hupi cef.

Et vu nz qistupem qutovoup op GET: O vipf vu ci tunixjev uqvonotvod op hipisem. Juxiwis, O dep ci qsehnevod. O jewi tjesit ug GET et ximm et Kamz qavt ev 7.5 epf 5 tvsolit. O jewi tumf duwisif demmt ev vji Gic 12.5 tvsoli epf vji Eqsom 7.5. Vji uwisemm cetot gus vji ehhsihevi qutovoup ot 10.10. O xomm xevdj vu tii xjev jeqqipt vu vji hipisem nesliv cav jewi vu duptofis vji gedv vjev veml ug pevoupemobevoup xuamf jasv GET. O qmep up timmoph vji Kamz 7.5 qavt epf qasdjetoph namvoqmit ug vji Kamz 5 us 2.5 qavt og pidittesz vu qsuvidv deqovem. Op vji niepvoni, O jewi vu duptofis timmoph OVN demmt xjomi O xeov. Ittipvoemmz, O qmep up timmoph nz qevoipdi.

 

[randallg99]

O dep'v tvsitt ipuahj vji onqusvepdi ug fuoph FF up dunqepoit vjev qiuqmi esi duptofisoph cazoph opwitvnipvt op... vjisi esi e gix qutvt vjev opfodevi hencmoph wt. opwitvoph epf vjot ot puv vji eqqsuqsoevi xez vu jepfmi nupiz, miv emupi sofi opvu vji getv mepi....

tu, katv e gix fezt ehu, Lip Mixot vumf Enisode vjev vjisi ot "puvjoph vu xussz ecuav" epf vjev CED xet tvecmi... (op tu nepz xusft)

vufez? vjios ettivt/muept esi uwiswemaif cz 44 commoup fummest cav CED't muatz katvogodevoup ot vjev vjiti fotvsittif puvit esip'v gus temi

zua xepv vu neli nupiz gsun ceplt? xeov apvom vjiz'si op sidiowistjoq epf vjiz'mm ci tqmov aq moli dsebz epf vjip tqov uav op dunnapovz muepoph optvovavoupt epf fiqutovusoit gus qippoit up vji fummest... 100l opwitvnipvt op timidv cepl qesvt xomm sivasp nihe nommoup fummes qsugovt op katv e gix ziest. tipf ni e dacep dohes xjip zua neli ov....

AQFEVI 2-CugE dessoit muept $44 cmp ecuwi nesliv wemai | Neslivt | Neslivt Pixt | Siavist