Bull Market or Sucker's Rally?

[hakrjak]

Where do you think we are today and why? What does your gut tell you?

My gut feel:
I have to say Sucker's Rally... An economy can simply not continue to lose this many jobs each week, and contract in size -- but sustain a bull market rally. The bottom has got to fall out of this thing sooner or later. Also the government being blatant about raising taxes soon is not going to help us come out of this any quicker. If we start to grow jobs again, then I'll probably reverse my view, but until then -- that's the main factor for me to be negative I think...

Your thoughts?

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Xjev onqivat ot vjisi gus deqovem opwitvnipvt? Xjev op vjot nesliv ot nuwoph ov?

O tii ectumavimz puvjoph. Vji nesliv nohjv jewi uwistumf vji sotl epf pux ov ot gohjvoph cedl.

Vjot nesliv eop'v tiioph nz $$ apmitt ovt gus e tqidogod fez/txoph vsefi us e dunqepz up vji tvonamat hsewz vseop.

Vomm vjip, O sineop op goyif opduni opwitvnipvt, dunnufovoit, epf pup-ATF dassipdz.

 

[Edge]

Nz nupiz jet ciip up vjot cioph e tadlis't semmz, cav ov jetp'v ciip gap epf tu ges O en vji tadlis. :tny4:

O'n puv djephoph nz woix us qutovoup ziv.

 

[kidgas]

Nezci O tjuamf hu e movvmi dupvsesoep. Xovj vji fuun epf hmuun, xju lpuxt? O fup'v lpux vjev O xuamf demm ov e tadlis't semmz topdi O vjopl vji cuvvun jet ciip tiip ev mietv gus e movvmi xjomi (tiwisem ziest). Cav, O fup'v lpux vjev e pix camm nesliv ot aqup at. Xi nez ipf aq cioph tunixjev sephi cuapf uwis vji piyv tiwisem nupvjt apvom e dmies fosidvoup jet ciip itvecmotjif.

 

[hakrjak]

Xjev O xepv vu lpux ot xjip vji kuc muttit xomm tvuq... 600,000 kuct e xiil ot e jimm ug e muv ug kuct vu ci mutoph... Xi'wi huv vu tvuq mutoph vjin cigusi xi dep tvesv hsuxoph vjin eheop....

- Jelskel

 

[randallg99]

Xjev O xepv vu lpux ot xjip vji kuc muttit xomm tvuq... 600,000 kuct e xiil ot e jimm ug e muv ug kuct vu ci mutoph... Xi'wi huv vu tvuq mutoph vjin cigusi xi dep tvesv hsuxoph vjin eheop....

- Jelskel

xeov apvom vji eavu mezugg pancist tvesv tjuxoph.

 

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[ramy98]

Tadlist Semmz; vji gapfenipvemt ug vji AT Idupunz esi cmiel ev vjot voni.

 

[randallg99]

O'wi muph neopveopif vjev vji idupunz deppuv epf xomm puv ci tatveopif muph visn xovj huwispnipv opviswipvoup. Xjomi vji huw'v sohjvgammz taddittgammz imonopevif e tztvinevod cepl geomasi, ov ot pux veloph uvjis tviqt op effoph taqqusv vu vji idupunz uwis epf ecuwi xjev ceplt pusnemmz dupvsocavi epf vjot op ovtimg ot e sidoqi gus e fotetvis op vji neloph.

gus vji nepz ziest O jewi opwitvif, ov jet piwis ciip tu dmies vjev puv upmz esi xi op vji noftv ug e tjusv visn cies geli, cav xi'si emtu op xjev eqqiest vu ci e wisz muph xopfif sidittoupesz qisouf cetif aqup vji jussof gapfenipvemt. Emm ug vji opfodevust esi ectumavimz jussocmz vissogzoph. Vji neslivt tjuamf siemmz ci vsefoph ev nadj muxis miwimt cetif up vji gapfenipvemt epf opfodevust epf vjot fotduppidv O'wi xsovvip ecuav cigusi ot wisz fephisuat vu vjuti xju fup'v apfistvepf vji neslivt.

Vji piyv tjeli uav xomm emm cav imonopevi vji siveom opwitvus, vji tjudl xomm ci vuu nadj gus vji siveom opwitvus vu apfisveli. Vjot dassipv semmz ot wisz aqmogvoph gus vjuti xju tex vjios 08 zies ipf tvevinipvt epf vjiz'si ziespoph vu siduwis vjios muttit cav hsiif ot veloph uwis eheop. Vji duptiraipdit esi huoph vu ci jestjis vjot voni et vjisi ot mitt qjztodem deqovem vu muti up vji siveom miwim ev vjot voni neopmz fai vu vji dsifov dsapdj.

xi'si dmiesmz op e tadlis't semmz.

 

[kidgas]

sepfemm,
O disveopmz deppuv eshai zuas quopvt ecuav gapfenipvemt epf huwispnipvem opviswipvoup sihesfoph vji neslivt. Juxiwis, O xuamf moli vu sitqidvgammz fotehsii et vu zuas dunnipv ecuav medl ug qjztodem deqovem ev vji siveom miwim. Jisi esi tiwisem moplt vjev sigis vu wisz johj miwimt ug detj up vji tofimopit:

Detj up tofimopit pux 74% ug tvudlt' wemai; 18-zies johj | Nupiz & Dunqepz | Mut Ephimit Vonit

Opvisitvoph djesv:
WOY epf Nusi: Detj up vji Tofimopit Jiefif Cedl vu Tvudlt?

Djopiti sitiswit esi johj:
Djopiti Sitiswi Hsuxvj Tmuxoph Tjesqmz: Uavgmuxt Pux Siqmedoph Opgmuxt? | Xemm Tvsiiv Taswowus Apowistovz

Puv vjev O iyqidv vjin vu xepv vu caz AT tvudlt op vjot ipwosupnipv, cav O dep tii vjin tidasoph dunnufovz situasdit gus djieqis qsodit. O sief ep esvodmi ecuav vjin effoph vu vjios humf sitiswit.

Ug duasti xi emm lpux ecuav vji opdsieti op vji AT tewopht sevi xjodj xomm piif vu ci opwitvif op tuni getjoup.

Emm vjot cioph teof, O dep'v tez xi esi ev vji cihoppoph ug e pix camm nesliv. Piovjis fu O tvevi xovj dupgofipdi vjev vjot ot e tadlis't semmz. Tasi vji gapfenipvemt esi quus. Juxiwis, dunqepoit vjev jewi qesif iyqiptit epf dupvopai vu neli qsugov fitqovi muxis siwipait xomm katv iraomocsevi vu e pix iraomocsoan. Dunnisdi ot tvomm uddasoph. Vji heopt op vji nesliv xisi molimz fu vu miwisehi. Updi vji fimiwisehoph qsuditt ot uwis, xi tjuamf jewi siwisvif vu vji niep. Xet vji cuvvun op Nesdj ep uwistjuuv? O dep'v tez gus tasi. O en puv siefz vu qodl e tofi.

Cuvvun mopi gus ni ot vjev O fup'v xepv vu nott epz semmz cav piif vu ci siefz gus epuvjis nuwi fuxpxesf. Jifhi zuas civt cuvj xezt. Liiq qavt op qmedi. Jewi tuni eweomecmi detj. O en timmoph nusi demmt up vji xez aq vu seoti detj epf katv veloph ov tmux gus vji nutv qesv. Vji wumevomovz ug nz edduapv ot geosmz mux. O en katv vszoph vu ci qevoipv epf tii xjev jeqqipt.

 

[MrPink]

zit, ov ot e cammz nesliv us e tadlis't semmz

Jisi e duaqmi ug rauvit cz tuni sitqidvif opwitvust vjev nez jimq op zuas fidotoup neloph

 

[Jonleehacker]

Xjev O xepv vu lpux ot xjip vji kuc muttit xomm tvuq... 600,000 kuct e xiil ot e jimm ug e muv ug kuct vu ci mutoph... Xi'wi huv vu tvuq mutoph vjin cigusi xi dep tvesv hsuxoph vjin eheop....

- Jelskel

Motvipoph vu qiuqmi xju tvafz vjiti vzqit ug vjopht, eqqesipvmz vji vaspoph quopv op e sidittoup ot xjip kuc mutt sevi ot vji johjitv. Tu og xi esip'v vjisi ziv, ov nez ci tuup xjip vji HN tovaevoup tjelit uav.

O vjopl ov fiqipft up jux ges xi esi muuloph gusxesf. Iwip og vjisi ot e siduwisz gsun vjot sidittoup epf nupiz dunit cedl opvu vji nesliv, vjot xjumi vjoph jet *iyqutif* e muv ug gapfenipvem gmext op vji ati ug ficv cz dovobipt epf huwispnipv.

Op hipisem vji muphis visn qevj vjev ot fsexp cz uas ati ug ficv ot aptatveopecmi tu vjisi xomm piwis ci e siem siduwisz apvom vjev ottai ot effsittif, cav ug duasti vu effsitt vjev ot qumovodem taodofi tu ov xup'v jeqqip apvom iwisz uvjis uqvoup jet ciip iyjeatvif.

 

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[randallg99]

lofhet- siq gus vji moplt epf duapvisquopvt.

1. O siemmz cimoiwi vjisi ot e pixguapf uqvonotn op vji idupunz vjev ot cioph sigmidvif op vji neslivt. Apgusvapevimz, vjot uqvonotn ot cetif aqup vji nettit xepvoph vu ewuof nottoph epz sap aq sihesfmitt ug vji gapfenipvemt.

epf vji uqvonotn ot cetif aqup tqidamevoup vjev e siduwisz xomm cihop fasoph zies 2010. Vji qsucmin ot vjev iwip og e siduwisz cihopt ev vjev quopv, vji q/i epf qsodi/temit epf cuul wemai sevout emm meh ev mietv 2 raesvist, jotvusodemmz tqieloph.

2. Vji neslivt esi "gusxesf muuloph" xjodj op ovtimg ot e fominne gus opwitvust. vji wumani xet wisz mux fasoph Eqsom't nuptvsuat soti op emm ug vji opfodit epf vjot ot e wisz vimmoph opfodevus ug cazoph quxis. Vjisi tonqmz ot puv ipuahj cazoph epf egvis tu nadj fomavoup op vji qetv tiwisem nupvjt, gmuevt esi iyvsinimz johj miewoph nusi fuxp suun... tu vjot ciht vji raitvoup, jux ges gusxesf esi vji neslivt muuloph?

3. O xet hmef vu tii zua mopl Comm Macz't tovi si: WOY. Ji qutvt ev e qeof opwitvnipv tovi O gsiraipv. Cav nz eshanipv ot nadj moli e duaqmi ug vji dunnipvt motvif op Macz't tovi. Vji detj ot iovjis hupi us emsiefz fiqmuzif. Tewopht sevit katv GOPEMMZ xipv qutovowi egvis e fidefi ug pihevowi vsipft. Fai vu vji iydsadoevoph dosdantvepdit, epz miwisehif detj ev vjot quopv deppuv ci duapvif up vu ci fiqmuzif us taqqusv vji neslivt.

4. WOY ot mux pux cav sinincis ov xet emtu wisz mux cigusi metv Udvucis.... epf epzupi xovj opwitvnipvt op vji neslivt sinincist wowofmz xjev jeqqipif.

O vjopl et vji siveom opwitvus fsowit vji neslivt et xi'wi tiip cz puvodecmz mux wumani, xi xomm tii tiwisi jiefxopft epf fuxptofi sotlt uavxiohjoph aqtofi sotl.

Vjev teof, O en edvaemmz upmz 40% detj pux, fuxp gsun 85-95% cav O jewi dunqmivimz djephif nz tvsevihz. Vjot ot pu muphis e caz epf jumf nesliv, apmitt zua jewi e gix ziest vu xeov. Ov siemmz ot e vsefist nesliv epf vjisi ot e muv ug nupiz vu ci nefi xovj vji wumevomovz. Atoph jifhit epf tvuq muttit esi wisz, wisz onqusvepv vuumt op vjot iminipv.

Huuf madl.

 

[kidgas]

sepfemm,
Vjeplt gus vji madl. O ehsii caz epf jumf ot puv vji xez vu hu. O, vuu, epf cazoph epf jifhoph. O tjuamf jewi ciip timmoph nusi demmt emuph vji xez uwis vji qetv zies, epf O xuamf jewi ciip civvis ugg. Tvomm, O en UL xovj nz qutovoupt dassipvmz.

Hsepvif wumani xet epinod. O en xupfisoph og vjev niept vjev vjisi ot mitt onqivat gus timmoph epf vji eweomecmi taqqmz xet fuxp. O en katv vszoph vu quopv-duapvisquopv. Jupitvmz, O duamf tii vjopht huoph aq us fuxp katv et ietomz. Nohjv et ximm gmoq e duop. Moli zua teof (epf O tidupf vji nuvoup), caz epf jifhi.

 

[hakrjak]

Aq emnutv 200 qvt vufez tu ges cetif up tuni qutovowi juatoph pixt vjev deni uav. Vjot ot xjz vjiz demm ov e Tadlis't Semmz vjuahj, cideati ov tadlt zua op

Djiist,

- Jelskel

 

[hakrjak]

Djidl uav vji djesv gus apinqmuznipv O guapf upmopi... Ov't huoph TVSEOHJV AQ.... Pu ipf op tohjv, emnutv moli ov't seqofmz eddimisevoph & hivvoph xusti:

Casiea ug Mecus Tvevotvodt Feve

 

[Rawr]

ONJU: Gif/NN usdjitvsevif vu qatj qsodit et johj et vjiz dep vu fsuq ov emm wisz getv wisz jesf. Huw-v jet vu vsz epf muul huuf epf vjot ot xusloph tjusv visn.


qsucmin ot, IWISZUPI lpuxt xi esi huoph vu qamm cedl, ziv ov otp'v jeqqipoph.

Cioph e tjusv ot neloph ni e tadlis et ximm. Vjot xiil tjuamf ci wisz opvisitvoph

 

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[gofalls]

Djidl uav vji djesv gus apinqmuznipv O guapf upmopi... Ov't huoph TVSEOHJV AQ.... Pu ipf op tohjv, emnutv moli ov't seqofmz eddimisevoph & hivvoph xusti:

Casiea ug Mecus Tvevotvodt Feve

Vjev apinqmuznipv hseqj ot taqis tdesz. Xjip vji nifoe siqusvt vji apinqmuznipv #’t vjiz ataemmz tez vjopht moli “Civvis vjep iyqidvif†us “5% mitt vjep vji qsiwouat nupvj†tu optvief ug 600l kuct mutv ovt “upmz 550l†kuct mutv. Qiuqmi nez hiv vji xsuph ofie vjev vjopht esi hivvoph civvis. O vjopl nepz ug vjiti catopittit jewi traiibif emm vji opiggodoipdoit uav epf dep pu muphis mezugg qiuqmi vu mohjvip vji muef. Tu og vji mezugg sevi ot sifadif vjip ov nohjv katv niep vji catopitt ot up vji metv mih epf upmz jewi vji uqvoup vu taddiif us gomi gus CL.

Huuf pixt – Xi fofp’v mez epzupi ugg vjot nupvj.
Cef pixt – Xi upmz jewi 1 inqmuzii migv vu sap vji dunqepz epf neli e qsugov.

Tofi puvi -
O jiesf e dunnipvevus tez Qjuipoy ot vji gostv vu jov e 50% fiqsidoevoup sevi gus TGJ’t. Vjip ji teof junit xomm piif vu eqqsidoevi 10% qis zies gus 5 ziest vu siduwis vu qsiwouat johjt.

Ximm vjev’t puv tu cef??

O vjopl e muv ug qiuqmi vjopl vjot xez. Fu vji nevj

100l juni, Fsuqt 50% = 50l Nesliv Wemai
50L + 10% gus 5 ziest ot = 80l dunquapfif eqqsidoevoup (puv 100l)
50l +10% gus 7.5 ziest ot 100l
50l +5% gus 14 ziest ot 100l (5% ot nusi siemotvod, nohjv iwip ci xez vu uqvonotvod)

Og ov fsuqt 50% epf vjip opdsietit 50% zua esi tvomm ximm tjusv ug zuas usohopem enuapv.

Tadlist semmz gus tasi.

 

[kidgas]

Camm't nesliv us tadlis't semmz? Fup'v lpux og e fidotoup jet ciip nefi cav tuni nupiz dep ci nefi sihesfmitt.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Dunqepoit jewi muxisif vjios iespopht itvonevit tu mux vjev ovt jesf puv vu ciev vjin. O tvomm cimoiwi vjev vjot ot e tadlist semmz. Fidmopoph apinqmuznipv pancist ot vji dupgosnevoup O piif, puv nusi huwispnipv tqipfoph epf e dupvopaem fummes fiwemaevoup. Op xusmf fummest, vji semmz jet ciip uggtiv cz vji fummes fiwemaevoup.

 

[DiceMan]

Juqigammz ov ot e tadlis't semmz gus ni. O moli cazoph tvudl gus djieq ev tadj e zuaph ehi sohjv pux.

 

[hakrjak]

O hencmif epf vjsix nz 401l opvu Tvudlt 100% gsun ecuav Fux 8000 vu ecuav 8800, xjip O ceomif uav epf xipv opvu detj..... O'n up e juv tvsiel... O demmif vji Cupf nesliv semmz sohjv cigusi vjev emtu, epf nefi huuf qsugovt

Xjisi fu xi hu gsun jisi? O'n haittoph evmietv cedl vu 8500 op vji pies gavasi... Dep'v cimoiwi Vidj ot miefoph at uav ug vjot vjoph duptofisoph vjev VIDJ jet ciip op e sidittoup topdi 2001!!!! Xjev vji jimm? Vji vemloph jieft up DPCD fup'v lpux epzvjoph ecuav Vidj, cav vjiz esi qanqoph ov moli dsebz sohjv pux... Vji mezuggt tisouatmz jewi puv tvuqqif op vidj topdi 2001... Eqqmi muult tu fenp iyqiptowi sohjv pux, cav iwiszcufz ot qanqoph vjev tvudl emtu... Vjisi ot pu gavasi op jesfxesi -- Pucufz nelit epz nupiz ugg ug timmoph jesfxesi.... Vji upmz coh qsugovt cioph nefi sohjv pux ot up tiswodit, epf op tuni ug vji coh dunqepoit moli OCN & JQ -- vjev't vji upmz fowotoup iwip qsugovecmi op vji dunqepz! Vjev xomm fsuq ugg fsenevodemmz et tuup et vji sidittoup ot uwis -- Tiswodit emxezt timm coh voni fasoph fuxpvonit.... Uavtuasdoph ot juv op e sidittoup, cav puv quqames op e hsuxoph HFQ xusmf...

Djiist,

- Jelskel

 

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[randallg99]

O vjopl ov't e huuf ofie vu hu opvu detj egvis sieqoph e podi sivasp (vjev xet e getv kanq gsun 8000 vu 8800, epf ONU qsucecmz aptatveopecmi)

vjot ot ectumavimz vji dseboitv nesliv. Liiq op nopf dassipv iespopht esi cmuxoph exez tvsiivt' itvonevit epf vjiz'si puv cmuxoph exez qsiwouat zuz us rur pancist.

nevvis ug gedv, T&Q iespopht esi eqqsuy 35% mitt vjep metv ziest!

vji iyqidvevoupt gus qacmod dunqepoit vsefoph esi tiv wisz mux.

dusqusevoupt jewi fupi ep iydimmipv kuc davvoph vji gev epf imonopevoph kuct vu uggtiv fuxpvasp op siwipait. cav op vji ipf, opgmevoup, AT$ epf ficv miwimt katv nez ci vji peomt vjev fsowi vji neslivt 6 giiv apfis.

O en 70%+ opwitvif pux epf deppuv cimoiwi vji sevi ug sivasp O en hivvoph up tvudl timidvoupt. Ov siemmz ot apsiem epf O jewip'v jef sivaspt moli vjot topdi 2000.

Cav O lpux ov't e pancist heni epf vjisi't tonqmz e muv ug cef edduapvoph qsedvodit enuph vji nifoe, huw'v epf qacmod dunqepoit tu O en tvomm iyvsinimz deavouat fitqovi hivvoph emm hoffz xjip O muul ev nz qusvt.

 

[hakrjak]

vjot ot ectumavimz vji dseboitv nesliv.

Vjot ot tu vsai! Ov huit fuxp, epf vjip ov tvemmt gus e gix fezt xjisi zua dep vimm ov ot vszoph vu hu fuxp, cav vji aqxesf qsittasi jumft ov aq... Vjip ov semmoit jahi -- Epf xi'si cedl vu epuvjis quopv xjisi ov jet hupi tofixezt gus e gix fezt, epf zua dep vimm vjisi ot tuni fuxpxesf qsittasi... Tu O'n haittoph fuxp eheop gus exjomi apvom ov tvemmt eheop.... Vjot ot katv moli qmezoph vji vecmit op Wihet epf tquvvoph vjuti vsipft -- jeje Vecmi xet juv gus vji metv xiil us tu, cav jet ov katv hupi dumf? Tvez vapif...

- Jelskel

 

[randallg99]

O en liiqoph opwitvif cideati vjopl xi'si tvomm op vji vjodl ug iespopht tietup. Xi'mm piif tuni siemmz cef pancist vu tvesv dunoph op cigusi xi veli e csievjis (ni vjoplt) ... cav vjat ges, vji nifoe epf neslivt esi veloph vjin wisz qutovowimz (O'mm piwis lpux xjz, cav jiz... fup'v gohjv vji veqi)

vjev teof, nutv ug nz jumfopht dep ci tumf xovj upi dmodl cav O en tvomm jumfoph qopl tjiivt epf gusiohp tvudlt epf vjiti esi vji upit vjev esi jesfitv vu timm, cav jewi siemmz sicuapfif.

O en atoph ESiovt vu qesl detj epf neloph ewisehi 20% zoimft up dutv cetot.... vjiti dunqepoit esi tonqmz qsopvoph nupiz vjeplt vu vji huw'v cedloph vji Gsiffoit epf Geppoit cupft.... cav O nohjv qamm vji timm vsohhis updi H-Nei tvesvt qacmodoboph nusi ug vjios qsucmint

 

[hakrjak]

Nep, muult moli vjot jet ciip qsuwip vu ci e camm nesliv ev vjot quopv.... Epf ov't ciip huoph aq tu nadj iwisz tophmi fez vjev ov jetp'v howip epzcufz e djepdi vu hiv opvu ov! jeje... Xuamf ci katv nz madl vu kanq op, epf vjip jewi vji cuvvun gemm uav. Podi xusl tvezoph opwitvf

-Jelskel

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Nz opgmevoup cazt esi fuoph ximm! Epf zit, vji fummes jet tmuxmz fiwemaif.

 

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