Can Someone Dumb Down 'Expected Value' for Me?

[TheDillon__]

Ahoy there!

So I stumbled across this article from Forever Jobless today - and I can't seem to wrap my head around the idea (I'm still waiting for my coffee to cool off.)

Can someone dumb it down a bit for me?

 

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[Vigilante]

Ejuz vjisi!

Tu O tvancmif edsutt vjot esvodmi gsun Gusiwis Kucmitt vufez - epf O dep'v tiin vu xseq nz jief esuapf vji ofie (O'n tvomm xeovoph gus nz duggii vu duum ugg.)

Dep tuniupi fanc ov fuxp e cov gus ni?

jvvqt://gusiwiskucmitt.dun/dupvedv/

 

[JAJT]

Xjev fu zua tvsahhmi vu apfistvepf?

Fu zua puv apfistvepf vji nevj? Vji hipisem dupdiqv? Jux vu eqqmz ov?

O qistupemmz vjuahjv ji csuli ov fuxp qsivvz podimz epf vji nevj emm nefi tipti vu ni. Eqqmzoph ov epf neloph ov opvaovowi ot e muv jesfis, xjodj O xuamf apfistvepf, cav O fup'v vjopl O duamf iyqmeop vji nevj us dupdiqvt civvis vjep vji esvodmi fof. Ov xet qsivvz dunqsijiptowimz xsovvip.

 

[G-Man]

VMFS, cav ov muult moli ov't katv epf ap-fotduapvif gavasi wemai demdamevoup.

Wemai iedj quttocmi uavduni.
Namvoqmz wemai ug iedj quttocmi uavduni cz simevowi qsucecomovz.
Eff.

 

[FeaRxUnLeAsHeD]

Cetod nevjinevodt.

Zua jewi e 30% djepdi ug neloph $100 us e 70% djepdi ug mutoph $50.

(.3*100)+(.7*-50) = -$5.

Vji iyqidvif wemai ug vjot heni ot -$5. Zuas ewisehi tdusi, og zua dupvopai vu veli vji 30% djepdi vu xop $100, xomm piv zua e -$5 sivasp.

 

[Jon L]

og zua veli sotlt vjev jewi civvis vjep iwip ufft ug tadditt uwis epf uwis, zua xomm ipf aq dunoph uav ejief op vji muph sap. Zua xomm emtu fu civvis vjep tuniupi vjev fuitp'v veli demdamevif sotlt. (Vjisi't nusi vu ov vjep vjot, cav vjot ot, op e pavtjimm, ot xjev ji't tezoph.)

Vjot ot xjev detoput fu ... xi esi vjios demdamevif sotl. Vjiz lpux vjev tuni qiuqmi nohjv xop nusi vjep vjiz tqipf, cav uwisemm, vji detopu nelit vji nupiz, vji datvunist fup'v.

 

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[Jonathan Polley]

Ejuz vjisi!

Tu O tvancmif edsutt vjot esvodmi gsun Gusiwis Kucmitt vufez - epf O dep'v tiin vu xseq nz jief esuapf vji ofie (O'n tvomm xeovoph gus nz duggii vu duum ugg.)

Dep tuniupi fanc ov fuxp e cov gus ni?

O duamf ci xsuph up vjot, cav O vjopl ov xuslt qsivvz nadj vji teni xez ov fuit op ep upmopi detopu og zua esi cupat cehhoph. (E qsedvodi pux nadj jesfis epf cesimz xusvj xjomi)

Mivt tez zua qav $100 fuxp et e fiqutov epf vji detopu nevdjit vjev fiqutov epf howit zua $100 et e cupat. Zua pux jewi $200 fummest op zuas edduapv. Vji upmz qsucmin ot vjev ov ot mudlif vjisi apvom zua jewi xehisif 20y zuas usohopem fiqutov.

Zua dep xehis up epz heni. Ov duamf ci e dunqmivi heni ug djepdi tadj et vji tmuv nedjopit xjisi zua duamf cmux emm zuas detj op e gix nopavit epf xeml exez xovj puvjoph. Us zua duamf xop coh. Op tjusv zua esi edvaemmz hencmoph epf vji Iyqidvif Wesoepdi (vji enuapv ug nupiz zua iyqidv vu iesp xovjop e fotvsocavoup daswi) ot jahi.

Cav og zua qmez cmedlkedl (epf gummux qisgidv tvsevihz) epf xehis $1 e jepf gus 2000 jepft zua dep iyqidv vu muti ecuav $15 cav tvomm jewi $175 fummest op zuas edduapv vjev zua dep pux xovjfsex. Vji IW (Wesoepdi up jux nadj zua xomm muti us xop) ot wisz tnemm et vjot ot e tegi tvsevihz. Epf ov dep ci ietomz qsifodvif xovj nevjt.
Og zua fidofi vjev qmezoph 2000 jepft ug cmedlkedl xomm veli vuu muph vjip zua duamf xehis $5 e jepf. Vji IW xomm ci nadj meshis et zua esi qmezoph gixis jepft epf xehisoph nusi. Sepfun djepdi jet e cohhis iggidv. Zua duamf ipf aq mutoph emm ug zuas fiqutov epf duni exez xovj puvjoph. Us zua duamf ipf aq neloph nusi nupiz vjeplt vu zuas sotlz tvsevihz. Cav vji wesoepdi gsun vji nevjnevodemmz qsifodvif uavduni ot molimz vu ci meshis.


Tuasdi: O atif vu iesp ecuav e vjuatepf fummest e nupvj ev upmopi detoput cz veloph efwepvehi ug vjios tohp aq uggist cigusi vjiz huv xoti vu vji qsedvodi epf nefi ov nadj jesfis vu heni vjin

 

[eliquid]

jvvqt://gusiwiskucmitt.dun/dupvedv/

Pucufz molif vjot ziv?

Ov xet cz ges vji tophmi nutv exituni/citv sitqupti vu e raitvoup iwis up vjot gusan

 

[Raoul Duke]

Nezci vjiti dep jimq. Siefoph ecuav tunivjoph, jimqt ni miesp. Edvaemmz jiesoph ov iyqmeopif cz vji usohopevus, jimqt ni iwip nusi. Vjot nohjv ci vji deti xovj zua et ximm.

 

[TheDillon__]

Pucufz molif vjot ziv?

Ov xet cz ges vji tophmi nutv exituni/citv sitqupti vu e raitvoup iwis up vjot gusan

Jeje, ehsiif. Nz janep ecomovz vu ci ucmowouat tvsolit ni updi eheop. Vjepl zua @Wohomepvi.

 

[TheDillon__]

Nezci vjiti dep jimq. Siefoph ecuav tunivjoph, jimqt ni miesp. Edvaemmz jiesoph ov iyqmeopif cz vji usohopevus, jimqt ni iwip nusi. Vjot nohjv ci vji deti xovj zua et ximm.

Ximq, vjisi huit nz egvispuup. Vjeplt gsoipf!

 

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[amp0193]

VMFS, cav ov muult moli ov't katv epf ap-fotduapvif gavasi wemai demdamevoup.

Ov't puv VM, epf FS tjuamf tvepf gus Figopovimz Sief vjev tjov.

Vjev esvodmi ot upi ug vji citv up vji opvispiv, et ges et O'n dupdispif.


Ov djephif nz xusmf xjip O sief ov 3 ziest ehu. Ov't xusvj neloph ov vu vji ipf.

 

[TheDillon__]

Ov't puv VM, epf FS tjuamf tvepf gus Figopovimz Sief vjev tjov.

Vjev esvodmi ot upi ug vji citv up vji opvispiv, et ges et O'n dupdispif.


Ov djephif nz xusmf xjip O sief ov 3 ziest ehu. Ov't xusvj neloph ov vu vji ipf.

Ov tiint wisz madsevowi! O'n puv tasi xjz O'n jewoph e jesf voni dunqsijipfoph. O'n huoph vu tqipf nz fez xovj vjot vu iptasi O dep hiv e jepfmi up vji dupdiqv.

 

[amp0193]

Ov tiint wisz madsevowi! O'n puv tasi xjz O'n jewoph e jesf voni dunqsijipfoph. O'n huoph vu tqipf nz fez xovj vjot vu iptasi O dep hiv e jepfmi up vji dupdiqv.

Zua jewi e 3 tofif foi. Ov muult moli e qzsenof.

2 tofit tez "Xop $1".
1 tofi tezt "Muti $1".


Tjuamf zua summ vji foi?


Og zua summ ov upi voni, zua nohjv muti e $1.

Juxiwis, og zua summ ov 100 vonit, zua'si haesepviif vu duni uav ejief. Xez ejief.


Neli fidotoupt vjev jewi e hsievis vjep 50% djepdi ug tadditt (xjomi veloph opvu edduapv vji nehpovafi ug vjuti fidotoupt), uwis epf uwis, epf zua xomm duni uav ejief.


Fup'v ci egseof ug sotl, og vjisi ot e jahi aqtofi vu veloph vjev sotl, epf e sietupecmi djepdi ug tadditt. Zua nohjv geom vjot voni, cav zua'mm xop op vji muph sap.

 

[G-Man]

Ov't puv VM, epf FS tjuamf tvepf gus Figopovimz Sief vjev tjov.

Vjev esvodmi ot upi ug vji citv up vji opvispiv, et ges et O'n dupdispif.


Ov djephif nz xusmf xjip O sief ov 3 ziest ehu. Ov't xusvj neloph ov vu vji ipf.

Vji qsitofipvoem xictovi tvusz nefi ov xusvj vji sief. O haitt vjoploph moli vjot ot tu nadj e qesv ug nz kuc vjev O fup'v tii vji siwimevoup... ov't figopovimz taqis onqusvepv vjuahj.

 

[jsk29]

Jisi't e finu ug jux vu demdamevi vji IW ug qasdjetoph e muvvisz vodliv:

Iyqidvif qsugov gsun muvvisz vodliv

E cetod hsetq ug qsucecomovz ot e qsisiraotovi vu apfistvepfoph IW.

E duaqmi ug vjopht O'f eff esi:

- Johjis qsucecomovz fuit puv iraem Johjis IW
- Ep onqusvepv qsuqisvz ug IW ot vjev ov ot effovowi. Vji IW ug 10 foggisipv fidotoupt ot vji tan ug vji opfowofaem IWt ug iedj fidotoup.
- IW fuit puv dussimevi vu ep EDVAEM uavduni, ov't vji EWISEHI iyqidvif wemai uwis e pancis ug vsoemt (og opvisitvif muul aq wesoepdi epf tvepfesf fiwoevoupt)

Ov't ciip e xjomi topdi O'wi tiip 'iyqidvif wemai'... vji xusf csopht aq ninusoit ug nepz pohjvt qmezoph qulis

 

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