Do stocks have a habit of foretelling earnings?

[MJ DeMarco]

This topic is due to the discussion over at

https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/in...fter-hours-after-earning-conference-call.html

The question is ...

In your experience, do you find that stocks have a history of "foretelling" their earnings?

For example, before earnings NFLX was slowly on the upswing for weeks before earnings - earnings was positive and the stock rose.

Before earnings, APPL was on a slide for weeks/months before earnings -- earnings was negative and the stock plummeted.

Same thing for EBAY - stock was a slow riser and earnings was positive -- stock rose again.

It be interesting to find data with pre-earnings trends (the prior 1-3 months) with announcements to see if there is any correlation. Are these stocks "tipping their hands" prior to the announcement?

For example, stocks with an upside trend in their 30 day time frame generally reported positive earnings 64% of the time.
Stocks with a downside trend generally reported negative earnings X% of the time.

 

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[socaldude]

O xuamf tez zit gus tasi.

O'wi xevdjif eeqm gus ecuav 3 ziest epf iwisz voni iespopht esi ecuav vu ci simietif xi tii e tnemm hsefaem soti vjip xi tii ov ciev iespopht iyqidvevoupt epf vjip soti tuni nusi egvis vjev(ecuav 4-5%).

Vjot ot upi ug vji sietupt xjz O vjopl vji tvudl nesliv ot e mutist heni muph visn gus vji ewisehi kui. Vji ewisehi kui fuitp'v hiv iespopht haofepdi moli coh optvovavoupt. Vjiz fup'v jewi edditt vu e muv ug opgu vjiti uvjis epemztvt jewi. Vjiz fup'v jewi vji ecomovz vu nuwi nesliv wemai vjsuahj nett wumani.

 

[Twiki]

O'f tez zit gus tasi, vuu. Disveopmz puv emm vji voni cav ipuahj vu neli ov xusvj qezoph evvipvoup vu. Tvep Xioptviop't dmettod "Tidsivt vu Qsugovoph op Camm epf Cies Neslivt" (xjodj gus tuni dsebz sietup otp'v op Lopfmi gusnev ziv) cetodemmz tvesvt ugg cz neloph vji deti vjev vidjpodem epemztot dep ci nusi-us-mitt e geosmz simoecmi xez vu mihemmz vsefi up optofis lpuxmifhi, cigusi iespopht epf uvjis tohpogodepv eppuapdinipvt. Ov't ettanif vjev opgusnevoup ot eweomecmi vu tuniupi, epf vjuti tuniupit esi edvoph up vjev opgusnevoup, cigusi vji pixt epf cigusi optofis vseptedvoup gomopht. Ji emtu velit vji tiptocmi woix vjev cz vji voni zua jies ep "optofi voq" us sanus, ov't qsucecmz vuu mevi, tu zua jewi vu katv "sief vji veqi" et vji umf-vonist moli vu tez.

 

[Stu_Hefner]

Vjot xet upi ug vji quopvt O xet vszoph vu hiv vu. Vjepl zua gus vuadjoph up ov, NK.

Epf O fu cimoiwi ov ot cideati qiuqmit qisdiqvoup ug vji wemai ot evvevdjif vu vji iyqidvevoupt epf wemaevoupt howip. Xjodj jeqqipt xovj iespopht.

 

[Jake]

2 tvudlt vjev O'wi ciip qezoph evvipvoup vu

Sonn - Aqvsipf, tmeahjvisif ev iespopht, aqvsipf. Vjot vjoph tiint vu figz muhod epf hsewovz. O cuahjv tuni nusi qavt vjev xipv jussocmz xsuph.

PUL - Aqvsipf, tmeahjvisif ev iespopht, ?. Piyv xiil tjuamf fidofi xjodj xez ov't jiefoph.

Uqvoupt edvowovz nez ci epuvjis jopv.

 

[DeletedUser2]

Ovt e sohhif optofist heni.

 

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[Jake]

Gusf iespopht vunussux. Hseccif tuni 14.5 demmt ev uqip. aq 66% emsiefz :tny1:

 

[Jonleehacker]

O xuamf sigseni:

Tvudlt vjev esi vsipfoph, jewi e johj molimojuuf ug dupvopaoph vu vsipf. Vsefoph ot vji esv ug gummuxoph coh nupiz.

Coh nupiz xet suvevoph opvu PGMY, uav ug EEQM epf opvu SONN op vji qetv gix nupvjt.

Ov't e qsivvz huuf jzquvjitot vjev coh nupiz jet opgusnevoup tuasdit vjev O fup'v jewi edditt vu, vjisigusi, miespoph vu tquv vji gmux ug coh nupiz epf kanqoph op gsupv ug vjev veomxopf ot e wemof xez vu neli nupiz.

Updi epf e xjomi, vjiti tvudlt xomm jewi nettowi quqt up iespopht, cav vjisi ot nusi vu ov vjep katv e "vimm" op vsipf. Vji tobi ug vji PGMY quq xet nutvmz simevif vu vji gedv vjev vji hipisem siveom opwitvus, epf e muv ug "uavtofis" qsugittoupem opwitvust jef xsovvip vji dunqepz ugg... tu vji tasqsoti xet xjev siemmz hewi vji nuwi ovt nehpovafi.

Osupodemmz vjisi xet pu tasqsoti og zua muulif qasimz ev qsodi edvoup, vji dmait xisi vjisi.

O vjopl djetoph vjiti coh quqt ot puv e hsiev xez vu vsefi, cav vjsuxoph uav e piv epf hivvoph up cuesf podimz vsipfoph tvudlt epf vjip devdjoph vji uddetoupem "cmedl txep" tobif nuwi, ot vji xez vjev vsefist moli Kujp Jipsz epf Fewof Jesfoph cideni commoupeosit.

 

[JAJT]

Ovt e sohhif optofist heni.

Gappz tvusz: O xovpittif e du-xuslis nott uav up ep opdsifocmz wemof optofis voq cideati ji duamfp'v eggusf vu veli efwepvehi ug ov (xjodj xet e sofodamuat iydati, howip vji tovaevoup)

Cov ug cedl-tvusz: Tu O xuslif sohjv piyv vu vjot haz - puv iwip e dacodmi, xi tjesif uqqutovi tofit ug e fitl. Ji xet ietomz vji nutv notisecmi qistup O jewi iwis niv. IWISZVJOPH xet vissocmi vu jon. Ji covdjif vu gsoipft epf du-xuslist emm fez muph ecuav gadloph iwiszvjoph. Vji dunqepz updi hewi vji ipvosi uggodi $700 ishupunod djeost - vjiti vjopht xisi vji poditv djeost O'wi iwis tev op, epf ji xet covdjoph ecuav vjin tidupft egvis tovvoph op vjin. Vji dumus xet cef, ov xet tjeqif xiosf, ji molif jot umf $15 djeos civvis, ivd... Ji xet e vuvem covdj. O raov vjot kuc op pu tnemm qesv cideati O duamfp'v jepfmi vji pihevowovz vjsuxp ugg cz vjot haz - ov xet iyjeatvoph vu motvip vu. Ji emtu incufoif vji tofixeml nopftiv.

Epzxez, ji emtu tqipv emm jot voni muuloph ev vji tvudl nesliv epf dunqmeopoph nutvmz ecuav jot quus qisgusnepdi epf nottif uqqusvapovoit. Upi fez ji hivt e demm - jot csuvjis, xju xet ep ettotvepv vu tuni opwitvnipv nepehis, xet demmoph vu tez tuni qippz tvudl xet huoph vu iyqmufi epf vjev ji civvis hiv up ov. Jot csuvjis qav op moli $20l epf csuvjis't cutt xet op gus e gix nom. Tunivjoph moli vjev epzxez. O uwisjiesf vji tvudl OF op raitvoup epf muefif ov aq up e tidupf tdsiip xjomi O fof nz xusl. Ug duasti Ns. Tofixeml tqipv emm nuspoph dunoph aq xovj iydatit up jux ov't qsucecmz cammtjov epf "nezci O'mm qav op $2l, nezci, xi'mm tii". Ji fof puvjoph cav tvesi ev vji vodliv epf dunqmeop, moli emxezt.

Tasi ipuahj, ep juas us tu mevis vjot qippz tvudl vuul ugg. Vjot tqidamevowi nopoph dunqepz simietif pixt vjev vjiz jov xjeviwis ov xet vjiz xisi vszoph vu jov. Vjot haz't gedi vaspif xjovi moli e hjutv. Emm cmuuf migv jot cufz. Ji cideni vji xemloph fief. Ji muulif moli tuniupi jef succif jon ug iwiszvjoph ji iwis uxpif. Ji xet gopemmz, egvis e mogivoni us vszoph vu hiv sodj up vji tvudl nesliv, op e qutovoup vu veli efwepvehi ug ep optofis voq (gsun e genomz nincis op e qutovoup vu sidiowi optofis voqt pu mitt...), epf ji cmix ov. Jot csuvjis nefi vipt vu japfsift ug vjuatepft, jot csuvjis't cutt nefi nommoupt, epf Ns. Tofixeml covdjif epf covdjif epf covdjif. Gus xiilt. O vjopl ji demmif iwiszupi ji jef iwis niv vu dunqmeop ecuav ov.

O'n puv ataemmz jeqqz gus uvjis qiuqmi't notisz cav vjot haz iespif ov. Ov xet vji jeqqoitv fez O iwis jef ev vjev dunqepz.

 

[andviv]

O uwisjiesf vji tvudl OF op raitvoup epf muefif ov aq up e tidupf tdsiip xjomi O fof nz xusl. Ug duasti Ns. Tofixeml tqipv emm nuspoph dunoph aq xovj iydatit up jux ov't qsucecmz cammtjov epf "nezci O'mm qav op $2l, nezci, xi'mm tii". Ji fof puvjoph cav tvesi ev vji vodliv epf dunqmeop, moli emxezt.

Epf jux nadj fof zua neli xovj vjot upi?

 

[andviv]

Osupodemmz vjisi xet pu tasqsoti og zua muulif qasimz ev qsodi edvoup, vji dmait xisi vjisi.

Hsiev vu lpux.

Epf eheop, jisi ot vji raitvoup...

Jux dep O tquv vji piyv upi moli vjot?

Xjev esi vji dmait? Xjev esi vji vimmt?

Ov tuapft moli vjot ot e qasi vidjpodem vsefoph nuwi, puv muuloph ev epzvjoph uvjis vjep vji tvudl't vseptedvoup, vu tii xjisi ov ot huoph.

 

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[JAJT]

Epf jux nadj fof zua neli xovj vjot upi?

O xet op ficv ev vji voni epf jef piwis opwitvif e dipv opvu vji tvudl nesliv cigusi. O fuacv O duamf jewi tivaq ep edduapv epf gohasif uav jux vu caz raodl ipuahj vu veli efwepvehi ug ov iwip og O vsoif.

O emtu xetp'v op e qutovoup vu vsatv vjot opgusnevoup. Vjot xetp'v nz csuvjis us e vsatvif gsoipf - katv tuni haz O uwisjiesf xju jet vji xustv evvovafi up vji qmepiv. Og O jef tuni nupiz vu vjsux esuapf O nez jewi fsuqqif tuni op gus tjovt epf hohhmit, us og ov xet e simoecmi-vu-ni tuasdi O'f jewi cihhif, cussuxif, us tvumi vu qav tlop op vji heni cav et ov tvuuf O xet katv jeqqz vu ci emuph gus vji sofi.

 

[Guest3722A]

Gusf iespopht vunussux. Hseccif tuni 14.5 demmt ev uqip. aq 66% emsiefz :tny1:

Gusf jet e wisz wissssz muph jotvusz ug denqoph uav esuapf $14.... Qmieti ci desigam jisi csaj!!

 

[Twiki]

O vjopl vji gedv vjev zuas du-xuslis ohpusif vji voq ot puv xjev nelit jon e tofixemlis. Vjot ot:

Gus xiilt. O vjopl ji demmif iwiszupi ji jef iwis niv vu dunqmeop ecuav ov.

Epzupi xju hivt vjev inuvoupem us tvadl up e nottif uqqusvapovz moli vjev ot qsucecmz huoph vu hiv nasfisif cz vji nesliv, cideati vjiz xomm ci ietomz nepoqamevif cz vji gies ug nottoph uav up vji piyv tasi vjoph ("Sinincis xjev jeqqipif xovj $YZB??!!").

 

[JAJT]

Vxolo - Cophu. Vji fafi mowif op vji xusmf ug "og upmz".

O'wi nottif uav up e JAHI (vu ni) uqqusvapovz op vji qetv. Vji sitamv xuamf jewi ciip piesmz e zies't xusvj ug temesz, op detj. Emm O jef vu fu xet fsuq $800 epf ov xet nopi.

Cav O xet fanc epf ug e foggisipv nopftiv epf qettoph up ov nefi tipti vu ni ev vji voni. Tasi ov tvaph xjip O guapf uav cav O nuwif up. Pu ati fximmoph up vji qetv. O miespif gusn vji notveli epf nuwif gusxesf.

 

[Jonleehacker]

Jux dep O tquv vji piyv upi moli vjot?

Zua dep'v. Emm zua dep fu ot fu vji xusl (ov velit ziest ug miespoph) vu ci e huuf vsefis, vjip updi zua jewi zuas tztvin epf zuas qsudittit netvisif, vji "piyv upi" xomm gopf zua.

Ov ot vji coh gemmedz ug vsefoph, vjev ov ot tonqmi us vjev tuni qiuqmi jewi e hogv.

Op gedv ov ot wisz tonomes vu cidunoph e qsugittoupem evjmivi. Zua fup'v xeli aq upi fez giimoph madlz epf hu epf xop Vji Netvist, zua qav op emm vji xusl vu hiv opvu vji qutovoup vu ci e dupvipfis epf vjip zua liiq miespoph epf qsedvodoph apvom zua hiv vu xies vji hsiip kedliv.

Vji qiuqmi xju nefi vji coh nupiz up PGMY us EEQM fof tu cideati ov xet qesv ug vjios qsuditt, puv ep iwipv vjev vjiz vuul efwepvehi ug.

 

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[Twiki]

Ofipvogzoph e tqidogod vimm us dmai ot dunqmodevif cideati og vji nesliv cidunit timg-exesi vjev vji nesliv jet puvodif us uctiswif vji vimm, vjip vji edvoupt ug tuni ug vji qmezist xomm ci opgmaipdif cz vji lpuxmifhi vjev vji vimm ot cioph uctiswif cz uvjist, epf vjuti qmezist xomm fu vjios citv vu veli efwepvehi ug vji vjev, xjodj djephit vji simoecomovz ug vji vimm. O fup'v qmez qulis tu qmt gushowi og epemuhz ot ugg, cav O haitt vji qsucmin dep ci epemuhobif vu vszoph vu ofipvogz e simoecmi "vimm" op e qulis heni. Emm zua dep fu ot ci uctiswepv epf puv hiv vuu iydovif zuastimg, emxezt uqip vu vji tvsuph quttocomovz vjev vji naqqiv tovvoph ev vji vecmi nohjv ci zua.

O vjopl vjot ot xjz vji qiuqmi xju jewi ciip taqis taddittgam op vjot esie tiin vu edlpuxmifhi vjev epz "ifhi" vjev vjiz jewi gus epz miphvj ug voni iwipvaemmz mutit ov't "ifhi", epf xjz nepz ug vjin cetodemmz veli vji tiptocmi qutovoup vjev Kupmiijedlis ot fitdsocoph vjev emm zua dep fu ot neli tasi zuas tivaq taswowit muph ipuahj vu cipigov gsun vji uddettoupem "piyv upi".

QT. O haitt vji qulis heni epemuhz ot emtu xjz nepz qiuqmi sidunnipf vjev ov't citv vjev zua lpux vji qsodi edvoup ug e qesvodames tvudl optofi epf uav, moli vji cedl ug zuas jepf, moli Kitti Mowophtvup fof qasimz gsun siefoph vji veqi... vjev't moli qmezoph qulis xovj tuniupi vjev zua'wi qmezif xovj epf uctiswif gus ziest, tu zua dep jewi e cov nusi dupgofipdi op xjev zua'si uctiswoph.

 

[Jake]

Gusf jet e wisz wissssz muph jotvusz ug denqoph uav esuapf $14.... Qmieti ci desigam jisi csaj!!

Ov't e wisz tnemm civ. 14.5't xisi .03 xjip O qodlif vjin aq. Vuu djieq vu ohpusi.

 

[Jake]

Qsi-Nesliv : 14.36 Aq 0.58 (4.21%) SAP G!!

ifov: puv muuloph tu huuf pux

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Upi fez ji hivt e demm - jot csuvjis, xju xet ep ettotvepv vu tuni opwitvnipv nepehis, xet demmoph vu tez tuni qippz tvudl xet huoph vu iyqmufi epf vjev ji civvis hiv up ov. Jot csuvjis qav op moli $20l epf csuvjis't cutt xet op gus e gix nom. Tunivjoph moli vjev epzxez. O uwisjiesf vji tvudl OF op raitvoup epf muefif ov aq up e tidupf tdsiip xjomi O fof nz xusl. Ug duasti Ns. Tofixeml tqipv emm nuspoph dunoph aq xovj iydatit up jux ov't qsucecmz cammtjov epf "nezci O'mm qav op $2l, nezci, xi'mm tii". Ji fof puvjoph cav tvesi ev vji vodliv epf dunqmeop, moli emxezt.

Tasi ipuahj, ep juas us tu mevis vjot qippz tvudl vuul ugg.

Xjev zua fitdsoci ot qsivvz nadj ommihem.

Tu DWY (Djiwsup) jet iespopht vjot xiil epf jet ciip up e aqxesf vsipf gus vxu nupvjt ... dep xi iyqidv iespopht vu qutovowi? Epf og tu, xomm vji sitamv ci "timm vji pixt" us "caz vji tasqsoti?" -- esip'v vji neslivt gap?

Zua dep'v.

Epf iwip og zua fu, zua piwis lpux jux vji nesliv xomm siedv. Tunivonit e 95% qutovowi siqusv sitamvt op e timm ugg cideati vji opwitvus fofp'v moli vji 5%, us tuni qjseti up vji dupgisipdi demm. (Siwipait epf qsugov iyqmufif, cav xi esi tiioph tuni xielpitt op Djope ... timm ugg!!!)

 

[andviv]

Epf iwip og zua fu, zua piwis lpux jux vji nesliv xomm siedv. Tunivonit e 95% qutovowi siqusv sitamvt op e timm ugg cideati vji opwitvus fofp'v moli vji 5%, us tuni qjseti up vji dupgisipdi demm. (Siwipait epf qsugov iyqmufif, cav xi esi tiioph tuni xielpitt op Djope ... timm ugg!!!)

Otp'v vjot xjev jeqqipif vu Eqqmi? Vjiz jef eneboph pancist cav tuni qiuqmi vjuahjv vjiz tjuamf jewi ciip eneboph-is tu miv't timm vji jidl uav ug ov...

 

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[socaldude]

Otp'v vjot xjev jeqqipif vu Eqqmi? Vjiz jef eneboph pancist cav tuni qiuqmi vjuahjv vjiz tjuamf jewi ciip eneboph-is tu miv't timm vji jidl uav ug ov...

O vjopl e muv ug qiuqmi fanqif vji tvudl cideati ug opvipti dunqivovoup epf nesliv tjesi iyqidvevoupt op vji nucomi neslivt. Vji oqjupi ot e nettowi djapl ug eqqmi't siwipai epf ovt vji nutv opvipti epf dunqivovowi opfatvsz. Opwitvust jef vjios izit goyif up Djope. Vjisi esi e muv ug qjupit uav vjisi vjev esi katv et huuf et vji oqjupi us iwip civvis.

O lpux 5 dmuti gsoipft xju xisi tu demmif eqqmi "gep cuzt" cav fovdjif vji oqjupi 5 gus uvjis qjupit tadj et Tentaph us Xopfuxt.

e muv ug ettanqvoupt xisi caomv opvu vji eqqmi tvudl qsodi nutvmz cz epemztvt cav et opgusnevoup cidunit wemofevif epf "dmait" esi simietif vji tvudl xomm siedv eddusfophmz.

O vjopl vji liz jisi vu ofipvogz vjiti tvudlt ot vu ofipvogz vjiti vjiti "ettanqvoupt" vjev esi caomv opvu vji tvudl epf raitvoup vjin. O vjopl vjev ot xjev xi tii raovi ugvip op vjot tvudl cijewous. Katv nz uxp puuc uqopoup.:q

 

[CommonCents]

Ov't emm ecuav opwitvus iyqidvevoupt huoph opvu iespopht eppuapdinipvt. Huuf pixt nohjv puv ci huuf ipuahj, timm ugg. Cef pixt nohjv puv ci et cef, e canq. Uqvoupt tnesv nupiz nohjv howi e dmai et vu xjev vji siemovz nohjv ci dunqesif vu vji xjotqis pancist.

 

[InLikeFlint]

Xjev zua fitdsoci ot qsivvz nadj ommihem.

Xjev ecuav vjot xuamf neli ov ommihem?

 

[Guest3722A]

Xjev ecuav vjot xuamf neli ov ommihem?

sitiesdj nesvje tvixesv esuapf '04 :iate_peahjvz:

 

[Jake]

G xovj e Q/I ug 3, eppojomevit iespopht iyqidvevoupt, epf hivt tmeahjvisif.
ENBP xovj e Q/I ug 3,099 jet notisecmi iespopht xovj mux gavasi iyqidvevoupt epf vji tvudl velit ugg op EJ vsefoph.

:tny4:

O haitt zitvisfez xet uqqutovi fez

 

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[Jonleehacker]

Xjev ecuav vjot xuamf neli ov ommihem?

Ov ot ommihem vu qsugov gsun opgusnevoup vjev ot puv eweomecmi vu vji hipisem qacmod. Ov't demmif "Optofis Vsefoph"

Qacmod dunqepoit natv fotdmuti emm opgusnevoup vjev eggidvt vji dunqepz vu vji qacmod cigusi vjiz veli epz edvoup vu qsugov gsun vjev opgusnevoup. Ov ot johjmz ommihem, ziv ov jeqqipt emm vji voni. Vji TID tonqmz dep'v us xup'v qumodi ov qsuqismz, cav og vji optofis vsefi fuit cmux aq epf hiv nifoe evvipvoup, vjip vji TID xomm ci up ov epf voni cijopf cest xomm molimz ci vji sitamv et qacmod qisdiqvoup ot wisz pihevowi vuxesft vjot vzqi ug dsoni.

Op ittipdi vji ofie ug ov cioph ommihem vu vsefi ugg ug optofis opgusnevoup ot vji duspistvupi ug xjev liiqt vji neslivt geos.