tradingadvan
Banned
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2012
- Messages
- 14
Rep Bank
$110
$110
User Power: 7%
Greece may soon be back dealing in drachmas adrift alone in the Adriatic, JP Morgan and the other banks continue to be loosely regulated trading liabilities, and job growth continues to be anemic at best.
But fear not, the media trumpeted the headline this morning that homebuilder confidence in the U.S. rose more than estimates according to the National Association of Home Builders Index. While this NAHB release couldn’t bring the market higher on the day, the market had been in positive territory earlier in the day.
But really, who cares?
Like most of the economic that we are subjected to, not only are the numbers interpreted incorrectly, the data is mostly meaningless.
The NAHB home builder’s survey uses "a diffusion index on a scale of 0 to 100, based on a survey of builders. The index has 3 components--current sales, model home sales traffic, and builder expectations for 6 months hence rated on the basis of good, fair, or lousy. The most important of these is traffic, which reflects future sales. A reading below 50 means that more builders rate conditions as poor or very poor, rather than good or very good.
The HMI rose from 13 in June to 15 in July. That's the "good" news, but there was a catch. As bad as that was, the gain was based mostly on a big jump in the expectations component which surged from 15 to 22.
Now I ask you; how would a home builder have any clue what conditions would be like 6 months from now? Right. They don't. True, the present conditions index rose from 13 to 15, but that is not material in the overall scheme of things. The key number is still traffic, because without traffic you can't have sales, and weak traffic foreshadows weak sales.
Weak numbers on top of more weak data. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.â€
Larry Levin
President & Founder - TradingAdvantage
But fear not, the media trumpeted the headline this morning that homebuilder confidence in the U.S. rose more than estimates according to the National Association of Home Builders Index. While this NAHB release couldn’t bring the market higher on the day, the market had been in positive territory earlier in the day.
But really, who cares?
Like most of the economic that we are subjected to, not only are the numbers interpreted incorrectly, the data is mostly meaningless.
The NAHB home builder’s survey uses "a diffusion index on a scale of 0 to 100, based on a survey of builders. The index has 3 components--current sales, model home sales traffic, and builder expectations for 6 months hence rated on the basis of good, fair, or lousy. The most important of these is traffic, which reflects future sales. A reading below 50 means that more builders rate conditions as poor or very poor, rather than good or very good.
The HMI rose from 13 in June to 15 in July. That's the "good" news, but there was a catch. As bad as that was, the gain was based mostly on a big jump in the expectations component which surged from 15 to 22.
Now I ask you; how would a home builder have any clue what conditions would be like 6 months from now? Right. They don't. True, the present conditions index rose from 13 to 15, but that is not material in the overall scheme of things. The key number is still traffic, because without traffic you can't have sales, and weak traffic foreshadows weak sales.
Weak numbers on top of more weak data. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.â€
Larry Levin
President & Founder - TradingAdvantage
Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member:
Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)
Membership Required: Upgrade to Expose Nearly 1,000,000 Posts
Ready to Unleash the Millionaire Entrepreneur in You?
Become a member of the Fastlane Forum, the private community founded by best-selling author and multi-millionaire entrepreneur MJ DeMarco. Since 2007, MJ DeMarco has poured his heart and soul into the Fastlane Forum, helping entrepreneurs reclaim their time, win their financial freedom, and live their best life.
With more than 39,000 posts packed with insights, strategies, and advice, you’re not just a member—you’re stepping into MJ’s inner-circle, a place where you’ll never be left alone.
Become a member and gain immediate access to...
- Active Community: Ever join a community only to find it DEAD? Not at Fastlane! As you can see from our home page, life-changing content is posted dozens of times daily.
- Exclusive Insights: Direct access to MJ DeMarco’s daily contributions and wisdom.
- Powerful Networking Opportunities: Connect with a diverse group of successful entrepreneurs who can offer mentorship, collaboration, and opportunities.
- Proven Strategies: Learn from the best in the business, with actionable advice and strategies that can accelerate your success.
"You are the average of the five people you surround yourself with the most..."
Who are you surrounding yourself with? Surround yourself with millionaire success. Join Fastlane today!
Join Today
