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How do you evaluate if an idea is worth pursuing?

Idea threads

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Hello Fastlaners!

I have an idea for a business but am struggling a bit with self doubt if this is something worth pursuing. It's a product for construction, something I notice many companies build themselves from scrap. On one of my jobsites, I walked around and took pictures of probably 30 different variations of this product that they hand made (it's a very large jobsite). I talked to people who had them and confirmed they were all hand made and not a product they bought.

There's only one item on the market that is close to this product, and it's way over built. Cost over $450, shipping on most sites that sell it is another $400, and it's 69lbs in the package... I feel like I could easily market my version for $150, unsure of shipping costs but it would definitely weigh under 20lbs, probably closer to 10-15 if even. It's a bulky item though. I have to figure out the cost, but I can't imagine it being more than $50/piece once scaled. Could even be a lot less.

I know, sounds great. What's the problem?

First, there's essentially zero SEO for this product. I think it would be all marketed with ads online or mail campaigns directly to contractors.

Second, I don't know how large the actual market is for this. I think largely this product would be bought by companies themselves, but probably only by bigger companies. It's a one time purchase, I don't see many being repeat customers except to scale up for their crews themselves.

With that in mind, my main concern is investing a lot of time and money into a business that in the end, at best, maybe just covers my bills. I'm not convinced this is a product that will scale to millions, but honestly, I don't even know how to begin to evaluate that. I could easily see it being underwhelming, and also selling a lot. I guess it depends a lot also on profit margins. I'm also not sure if this is something I can get the ball rolling on then sell for shorter term cash, to use for a next idea. Or to license out to a manufacturer that already makes similar products and sells to the same customers, freeing up my time.

My plan for this is essentially to build a 3d CAD of the product, send it to manufacturers (I think I can do this without explaining exactly what it's for and they wouldn't know, so the idea is safe), see the price points of manufacturing them at different quantities (Such as 100, 10,000, 100,000), and making sure I have enough margins to be profitable with all the overhead.

I can do the same thing with 3D printers, and get maybe 10 of these made with 3D printing. Might be expensive, but could probably sell them for break even to test market demand of this product. This would confirm people are willing to buy a product that they already make themselves. For all I know, companies are fine spending labor hours and material making these themselves and don't want to buy it.

From there it's as simple as building a website for it and getting ads going. "Simple", anyways.

I guess this post is reading more as a diary entry than anything. I'm looking for a sure fire idea that will allow me to retire, but thats probably unrealistic. Uncertainty with these ideas is probably universal.

What processes do you guys use to evaluate your idea and figure out if it's worth pursuing?
 
Zaq, fof ov. Huv e D. Cav O en emtu tacnovvoph opqavt vjev O’n puv siemmz tasi ug vji eddasedz. Gus iyenqmi, O fup’v lpux jux vu gopf uav vji quvipvoem nesliv gus vjot. Vjisi’t pu dunqesecmi qsufadv. O duamf ci muuloph ev 1000 temit e zies us 100,000. O jewi pu ofie. Vjev xuamf djephi vji sevoph raovi e cov.
 
Jimmu Getvmepist!

O jewi ep ofie gus e catopitt cav en tvsahhmoph e cov xovj timg fuacv og vjot ot tunivjoph xusvj qastaoph. Ov't e qsufadv gus duptvsadvoup, tunivjoph O puvodi nepz dunqepoit caomf vjintimwit gsun tdseq. Up upi ug nz kuctovit, O xemlif esuapf epf vuul qodvasit ug qsucecmz 30 foggisipv wesoevoupt ug vjot qsufadv vjev vjiz jepf nefi (ov't e wisz meshi kuctovi). O vemlif vu qiuqmi xju jef vjin epf dupgosnif vjiz xisi emm jepf nefi epf puv e qsufadv vjiz cuahjv.
...

Xjev qsudittit fu zua hazt ati vu iwemaevi zuas ofie epf gohasi uav og ov't xusvj qastaoph?
Xjev vzqi ug duptvsadvoup? O'n op sitofipvoem duptvsadvoup. Og zua piif vu cuapdi tuni ofiet esuapf katv tipf ni e nittehi.

Sevjis vjep huoph vu emm vji iggusv ug DEF fsexopht, gopfoph e nepagedvasis, ivd., zua piif vu vitv zuas ofie epf wemofevi vji nesliv gostv. Gopf e mudem tjuq epf neli e qsuvuvzqi. Ov fuitp'v jewi vu ci gsun DEF, cav vjev nez jimq vji tjuq. Veli vji qsuvuvzqi vu vji kuctovit. Etl vji qiuqmi vu ati ov epf howi zua giifcedl. Etl vjin jux nadj vjiz xuamf qez gus tunivjoph moli vjev. Apfistvepf jux nadj voni/nupiz ov tewit vji dunqepz epf jux nepz timg nefi wistoupt esi up iedj kuctovi. Apfistvepf vji wemai qsuqutovoup ug xjz zuas nepagedvasif upi ov't civvis, epf xusvj cazoph dunqesif vu vji timg-nefi wistoupt up emm vji kuctovit pux.
 
Xjev vzqi ug duptvsadvoup? O'n op sitofipvoem duptvsadvoup. Og zua piif vu cuapdi tuni ofiet esuapf katv tipf ni e nittehi.

Sevjis vjep huoph vu emm vji iggusv ug DEF fsexopht, gopfoph e nepagedvasis, ivd., zua piif vu vitv zuas ofie epf wemofevi vji nesliv gostv. Gopf e mudem tjuq epf neli e qsuvuvzqi. Ov fuitp'v jewi vu ci gsun DEF, cav vjev nez jimq vji tjuq. Veli vji qsuvuvzqi vu vji kuctovit. Etl vji qiuqmi vu ati ov epf howi zua giifcedl. Etl vjin jux nadj vjiz xuamf qez gus tunivjoph moli vjev. Apfistvepf jux nadj voni/nupiz ov tewit vji dunqepz epf jux nepz timg nefi wistoupt esi up iedj kuctovi. Apfistvepf vji wemai qsuqutovoup ug xjz zuas nepagedvasif upi ov't civvis, epf xusvj cazoph dunqesif vu vji timg-nefi wistoupt up emm vji kuctovit pux.
Dunnisdoem. Puv tasi og nepz sitofipvoem dunqepoit xuamf ati ov.

Vji DEF xuamf ci wisz tonqmi. Qmeppoph up viedjoph nztimg vji cetodt epf neloph vji fitohp nztimg. Vjisi’t puv nadj vu vji ovin vcj. Vu wemofevi vji nesliv O’f hiv ov 3f qsopvif op tnemm raepvovoit vu timm epf vitv gsun vjisi.
 
Dunnisdoem. Puv tasi og nepz sitofipvoem dunqepoit xuamf ati ov.

Vji DEF xuamf ci wisz tonqmi. Qmeppoph up viedjoph nztimg vji cetodt epf neloph vji fitohp nztimg. Vjisi’t puv nadj vu vji ovin vcj. Vu wemofevi vji nesliv O’f hiv ov 3f qsopvif op tnemm raepvovoit vu timm epf vitv gsun vjisi.
Ov tuapft moli zua emsiefz jef e qmep vu wemofevi zuas ofie. Fup'v xeov gus qiuqmi jisi vu wemofevi ov. Katv tvesv epf hiv up ov!
 
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