Why do some people make 10x profits in crypto while others see their investments vanish?
Would you like to be a winner or a loser?
The crypto market is like a game where if you win, someone else has to lose. It’s all about knowing more, acting faster, and having better insights. As we approach the end of the year, it's crucial not to let greed cloud your judgment. In this post, you'll discover key indicators that suggest the crypto cycle might be ending soon and how you can stay ahead of the curve.
Metric presented by Cryptocon. It shows us a possible ATH in the future. It suggests that we could see an all-time high (ATH) in December 2024. While we can’t know for sure, if other on-chain data turns negative, it would be wise to consider realizing at least part of your profits.
Long Term Holder Supply
Another red sign for Bitcoin. In the past two cycles, when Long Term Holders (LTHs) started selling their positions, one year later we had ATH and the end of the cycle. This means that somewhere around December 2024 and January 2025 we can have ATH. You should know that in the first quarter of 2025, many altcoins, such as Wormhole and Ethena, will experience an increase in supply, which can create significant selling pressure. This aligns with the theory that we will have BTC ath at the end of this year.
CBBI - Crypto Bull & Bear Index
CBBI, or Crypto Bull & Bear Index, is a tool to gauge market sentiment and trends. It combines various indicators and metrics. If the CBBI Confidence goes above 90 and the BTC price is a dark red, it means that the market is overheated and it's time to realize profits. Also, it helps us find the moment to buy Bitcoin at the lowest possible price in a bear market. Observing this Index will be crucial in the near future.
Inverted Yield Curve
The next worrisome fact is our timing with the inverted yield curve. At the beginning of 2023, we observed this phenomenon, indicating that a recession might be approaching soon. It suggests that this recession could occur by the end of this year.
Accuracy: It is estimated that this indicator has had a success rate of about 70-80% in predicting recessions.
Lead Time: Typically, a recession would follow within 6-24 months after the occurrence of an inversion.
False Signals: There have been very few instances where an inversion did not lead to a recession (1966 is one of the rare exceptions).
Recent Instances: An inversion preceded recessions in 1980, 1981-82, 1990-91, 2001, 2008-09, and 2020.
Market Reaction Delay: Typically, the stock market peaks a few months after the inversion of the yield curve.
Cryptocurrency Popularity: App Store Rankings, Social Media Metrics, and Market Interest
A good indicator of the market being overwhelmed by retail investors is Coinbase's ranking in the app store. If Coinbase is in first place, it's a strong sign that retail investors have entered the market. This often leads to 'whales'—large investors—dropping their bags onto them, creating a correction or even ending the bull run. Don’t forget, in the market, gains for one party mean losses for another.
You can measure the number of new investors with Social Media Metrics like New Weekly YouTube Views Of Influencers' Videos. One of the websites, where you can track this, is The Block. As you can see below, right now the views aren't as high as it was in the previous bull market.
Another thing. Imagine you sit at dinner with your family. Suddenly, your aunt or uncle starts talking about Bitcoin even though they have never invested in it and have zero knowledge about blockchain. Then, you know for sure that something is wrong.
Other Important Signals I didn't mention:
While crypto may not turn you into a millionaire in 95% of cases, as it's not about creating a productocracy, understanding how it works can still boost your earnings potential and protect against financial losses. I've mentioned only a few tools and metrics here, but there are hundreds more to explore. Knowing this gives you an edge over other investors.
Let me know which key metrics you're watching and why—your insights can be crucial.
Would you like to be a winner or a loser?
The crypto market is like a game where if you win, someone else has to lose. It’s all about knowing more, acting faster, and having better insights. As we approach the end of the year, it's crucial not to let greed cloud your judgment. In this post, you'll discover key indicators that suggest the crypto cycle might be ending soon and how you can stay ahead of the curve.
RVGI New ATHsMetric presented by Cryptocon. It shows us a possible ATH in the future. It suggests that we could see an all-time high (ATH) in December 2024. While we can’t know for sure, if other on-chain data turns negative, it would be wise to consider realizing at least part of your profits.
Long Term Holder Supply
Another red sign for Bitcoin. In the past two cycles, when Long Term Holders (LTHs) started selling their positions, one year later we had ATH and the end of the cycle. This means that somewhere around December 2024 and January 2025 we can have ATH. You should know that in the first quarter of 2025, many altcoins, such as Wormhole and Ethena, will experience an increase in supply, which can create significant selling pressure. This aligns with the theory that we will have BTC ath at the end of this year.
CBBI, or Crypto Bull & Bear Index, is a tool to gauge market sentiment and trends. It combines various indicators and metrics. If the CBBI Confidence goes above 90 and the BTC price is a dark red, it means that the market is overheated and it's time to realize profits. Also, it helps us find the moment to buy Bitcoin at the lowest possible price in a bear market. Observing this Index will be crucial in the near future.
Inverted Yield Curve
The next worrisome fact is our timing with the inverted yield curve. At the beginning of 2023, we observed this phenomenon, indicating that a recession might be approaching soon. It suggests that this recession could occur by the end of this year.
Accuracy: It is estimated that this indicator has had a success rate of about 70-80% in predicting recessions.
Lead Time: Typically, a recession would follow within 6-24 months after the occurrence of an inversion.
False Signals: There have been very few instances where an inversion did not lead to a recession (1966 is one of the rare exceptions).
Recent Instances: An inversion preceded recessions in 1980, 1981-82, 1990-91, 2001, 2008-09, and 2020.
Market Reaction Delay: Typically, the stock market peaks a few months after the inversion of the yield curve.
SentimentCryptocurrency Popularity: App Store Rankings, Social Media Metrics, and Market Interest
A good indicator of the market being overwhelmed by retail investors is Coinbase's ranking in the app store. If Coinbase is in first place, it's a strong sign that retail investors have entered the market. This often leads to 'whales'—large investors—dropping their bags onto them, creating a correction or even ending the bull run. Don’t forget, in the market, gains for one party mean losses for another.
You can measure the number of new investors with Social Media Metrics like New Weekly YouTube Views Of Influencers' Videos. One of the websites, where you can track this, is The Block. As you can see below, right now the views aren't as high as it was in the previous bull market.
Another thing. Imagine you sit at dinner with your family. Suddenly, your aunt or uncle starts talking about Bitcoin even though they have never invested in it and have zero knowledge about blockchain. Then, you know for sure that something is wrong.
Other Important Signals I didn't mention:
- MVRV Z-Score
- Bitcoin and M2 Growth Correlation
- Bitcoin Binary Spending Indicator
- Cryptocurrency Monthly Exchange Volume
- Bitcoin Monthly RSI
- Fear And Greed Index
- Tracking Coinbase Ranking
While crypto may not turn you into a millionaire in 95% of cases, as it's not about creating a productocracy, understanding how it works can still boost your earnings potential and protect against financial losses. I've mentioned only a few tools and metrics here, but there are hundreds more to explore. Knowing this gives you an edge over other investors.
Let me know which key metrics you're watching and why—your insights can be crucial.
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