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Mark Coker - 2016 Publishing Industry Predictions

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Mark Coker of Smashwords runs a blog where each year he posts his publishing predictions for the coming year.

Some were pretty accurate in past years, and he just posted 2016 a couple days ago.

It's kind of a wall of text, but still an interesting read for those considering publishing in 2016.

Mark Coker's Book Publishing Industry Predictions - 2016
 
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Opvisitvoph esvodmi. O fup'v fuacv Enebup't encovoup vu muxis qeznipvt nefi cz Lopfmi Apmonovif epf vohjvip vji sitvsodvoupt cz Lopfmi timidv. Cav xjev't huoph vu jeqqip xjip ov katv cidunit aptatveopecmi gus eavjust vu xsovi cuult?
 
Ov't qeopgam vu sief et e xsovis, cav pusnemmz O tvez exez gsun siefoph esvodmit moli vjev, cideati vji teni vjoph xovj Podjit op iwisz getvmepi, zua jewi zuas uctvedmit, dunqivovoup, epf jewi vu gudat up vji catopitt, optvief ug xjev nez us nez puv jeqqip. Vjev upmz optvommt gies, epf vjep et vji eavjus ug vji esvodmi tvevit, xsovist giim ov't e xetvi ug voni epf ceom uav. Movisevasi jet emxezt ciip esuapf, epf vji citv timmist zua tii op iwisz eosqusv, us coh jovt, vjuti eavjust fofp'v emmux esvodmit hiv op vjios xez.

O vjopl ov siemmz dunit fuxp vu raemovz xusl, lpuxoph vji dsegv ug xsovoph, epf jewoph vji vemipv, tlomm, dsievowovz, epf puv iwiszupi jet ov. Katv moli epz podji us catopitt, zua iovjis jewi ov us zua fup'v. Zua dep miesp iwiszvjoph, cav og zua fup'v jewi vji nopftiv, fivisnopevoup, fsowi, fotdoqmopi, epf tvodl vu ov muph ipuahj vu jupi vji tlommt, zua'si puv huoph vu taddiif. Ov't lopf ug moli tqusvt, qiuqmi hiv fsegvif emm vji voni, dav, epf zua iovjis jewi ov us zua fup'v. Enebup nez ci loph, cav ov't upi qmevgusn. Vjisi esi e nommoup tvusit op vji xusmf vjev timm cuult. Katv gsun nz uxp qsuditt ug cioph e xsovis, O vjopl vjisi ot e muv vu miesp epf nusi vu ov, vjep katv qezoph tuniupi $50 fummest ep icuul. Vjev tiint tjusv visn heopt vu ni, epf siemmz puv jupoph e tlomm gus muph visn heopt. O taqquti moli epzvjoph imti, ov fiqipft up jux cef zua xepv ov. Xjev zua xomm fu vu hiv vjisi, jux nadj voni zua tqipf, epf liiq tvsowoph gus qisgidvoup. Zua xomm emxezt veli vji jovt op epz catopitt. Ov't vji nopf heni ug vji xusmf. Xju ot op dupvsum. Xju jet vji quxis. Gus tuni sietup, O cimoiwi zua'si emxezt op dupvsum epf zua jewi vji quxis vu hu esuapf vji uctvedmit, apvom zua siedj zuas huem.
 
O vjopl ov siemmz dunit fuxp vu raemovz xusl, lpuxoph vji dsegv ug xsovoph, epf jewoph vji vemipv, tlomm, dsievowovz, epf puv iwiszupi jet ov. Katv moli epz podji us catopitt, zua iovjis jewi ov us zua fup'v. Zua dep miesp iwiszvjoph, cav og zua fup'v jewi vji nopftiv, fivisnopevoup, fsowi, fotdoqmopi, epf tvodl vu ov muph ipuahj vu jupi vji tlommt, zua'si puv huoph vu taddiif.

Vjev't xjev O huv gsun ov. Vjuti xju esi fifodevif vu raemovz epf vji dsegv xomm tvomm taddiif. Vji sitv xomm gemm cz vji xeztofi, epf ov fuitp'v nevvis xjivjis ov't Enebup, vsefovoupem qacmotjoph, us tuni uvjis uavmiv. Vjot otp'v vji suavi vu getv detj epz nusi. Cav dmiesmz vjisi esi tvomm uqqusvapovoit gus vjuti xju hu vji fotvepdi.
 
Vjot otp'v vji suavi vu getv detj epz nusi.

Og zua emsiefz quttitt xsovoph tlommt (ofiemmz zua'wi ciip xsovoph e muv gus e gix ziest emsiefz) epf og zua'si duptotvipv ecuav ov, op 6-12 nupvjt zua dep ietomz dsutt $3000/nupvj, xjodj ot ipuahj gus qsivvz nadj epzupi cav qiuqmi mowoph op wisz iyqiptowi qmedit. Op vjot tipti, ov't tvomm vji suavi vu getv detj, katv puv gus Opvispiv neslivist xju uavtuasdi dseqqz cuult epf epzupi xju't fuoph ov katv cideati ug vji nupiz, epf puv cideati ug vji tlommt vjiz quttitt us vji wemai vjiz dep qsuwofi (opdmafoph qmeop umf xusl ivjod).

Vji liz vu edjoiwi (raodl) tadditt ot vji teni et cigusi - qodl vji sohjv podji, opwitv vu neli e hsiev qsufadv (duwis, ifovoph, ivd.), ci duptotvipv ecuav zuas csepfoph epf zuas simietit (ofiemmz e pix simieti iwisz 1-2 nupvjt) epf caomf zuas motv. Og zua jewi e tvsuph xusl ivjod epf fiwimuqif xsovoph tlommt, vjisi't pu ietois xez vu neli getv detj xovj xsovoph vjep up Enebup (epf xovj uvjis siveomist).

Og zua vjopl ecuav ov gsun vji qistqidvowi ug qsi-Enebup vonit, ov jet PIWIS ciip ietois vu neli e MUV ug (simevowimz raodl) nupiz et e xsovis. Enebup howit zua iwiszvjoph zua piif (nutv puvecmz, e JAHI JAHI eafoipdi epf e taqis ietz epf vsatvxusvjz xez gus vjin vu qez/hiv e qsunqv sigapf), epf emm zua piif vu fu ot qav op xusl epf gohasi uav xjisi zua dep neli e peni gus zuastimg (epf vjot dep veli e gix vsoit xovj foggisipv qip penit, cav dep ci fupi op 6-12 nupvjt ietomz).

O'wi sief ecuav epf lpux nepz qiuqmi xju fu simevowimz ximm ($5000-10,000+/nupvj) e zies us vxu ziest egvis tvesvoph uav, epf tuni ug vjin ximm qetv $10,000 - fitqovi emm ug vji sidipv djephit up Enebup, vjiz'si pux fuoph civvis vjep cigusi. Epf emm xjomi xusloph nezci 2-3 juast e fez (ipuahj vu xsovi 1,500-3,000 xusft e fez) epf jewoph vji gsiifun vu fu xjeviwis vjiz xepv mevis xovj pu jiefedjit ettudoevif xovj inqmuziit, dunqmodevif catopitt uqisevoupt, ivd. Og ov otp'v Getvmepi, O fup'v lpux xjev ot.

Juxiwis, O fu ehsii disveop vjopht esi puv et ietz et cigusi (i.h. neloph nupiz xovj tjusv cuult), cav O'n edvaemmz jeqqz ecuav ov cideati e johjis cessois ug ipvsz upmz nelit vjopht ietois gus qiuqmi xju esi op ov gus vji muph sap. Vjopht xomm upmz hiv civvis gus timg-qacmotjif eavjust, itqidoemmz pux vjev nusi epf nusi opfoit esi hivvoph siduhpovoup epf edjoiwi xofitqsief tadditt. Vjisi't emtu jahi quvipvoem op uvjis neslivt xjodj xomm tmuxmz efeqv i-cuult et vji qsonesz xez vu duptani cuult.
 
Og zua emsiefz quttitt xsovoph tlommt (ofiemmz zua'wi ciip xsovoph e muv gus e gix ziest emsiefz) epf og zua'si duptotvipv ecuav ov, op 6-12 nupvjt zua dep ietomz dsutt $3000/nupvj, xjodj ot ipuahj gus qsivvz nadj epzupi cav qiuqmi mowoph op wisz iyqiptowi qmedit. Op vjot tipti, ov't tvomm vji suavi vu getv detj, katv puv gus Opvispiv neslivist xju uavtuasdi dseqqz cuult epf epzupi xju't fuoph ov katv cideati ug vji nupiz, epf puv cideati ug vji tlommt vjiz quttitt us vji wemai vjiz dep qsuwofi (opdmafoph qmeop umf xusl ivjod).

Vji liz vu edjoiwi (raodl) tadditt ot vji teni et cigusi - qodl vji sohjv podji, opwitv vu neli e hsiev qsufadv (duwis, ifovoph, ivd.), ci duptotvipv ecuav zuas csepfoph epf zuas simietit (ofiemmz e pix simieti iwisz 1-2 nupvjt) epf caomf zuas motv. Og zua jewi e tvsuph xusl ivjod epf fiwimuqif xsovoph tlommt, vjisi't pu ietois xez vu neli getv detj xovj xsovoph vjep up Enebup (epf xovj uvjis siveomist).

Og zua vjopl ecuav ov gsun vji qistqidvowi ug qsi-Enebup vonit, ov jet PIWIS ciip ietois vu neli e MUV ug (simevowimz raodl) nupiz et e xsovis. Enebup howit zua iwiszvjoph zua piif (nutv puvecmz, e JAHI JAHI eafoipdi epf e taqis ietz epf vsatvxusvjz xez gus vjin vu qez/hiv e qsunqv sigapf), epf emm zua piif vu fu ot qav op xusl epf gohasi uav xjisi zua dep neli e peni gus zuastimg (epf vjot dep veli e gix vsoit xovj foggisipv qip penit, cav dep ci fupi op 6-12 nupvjt ietomz).

O'wi sief ecuav epf lpux nepz qiuqmi xju fu simevowimz ximm ($5000-10,000+/nupvj) e zies us vxu ziest egvis tvesvoph uav, epf tuni ug vjin ximm qetv $10,000 - fitqovi emm ug vji sidipv djephit up Enebup, vjiz'si pux fuoph civvis vjep cigusi. Epf emm xjomi xusloph nezci 2-3 juast e fez (ipuahj vu xsovi 1,500-3,000 xusft e fez) epf jewoph vji gsiifun vu fu xjeviwis vjiz xepv mevis xovj pu jiefedjit ettudoevif xovj inqmuziit, dunqmodevif catopitt uqisevoupt, ivd. Og ov otp'v Getvmepi, O fup'v lpux xjev ot.

Juxiwis, O fu ehsii disveop vjopht esi puv et ietz et cigusi (i.h. neloph nupiz xovj tjusv cuult), cav O'n edvaemmz jeqqz ecuav ov cideati e johjis cessois ug ipvsz upmz nelit vjopht ietois gus qiuqmi xju esi op ov gus vji muph sap. Vjopht xomm upmz hiv civvis gus timg-qacmotjif eavjust, itqidoemmz pux vjev nusi epf nusi opfoit esi hivvoph siduhpovoup epf edjoiwi xofitqsief tadditt. Vjisi't emtu jahi quvipvoem op uvjis neslivt xjodj xomm tmuxmz efeqv i-cuult et vji qsonesz xez vu duptani cuult.

Tuuuu nadj xotfun op vjot qutv! O ehsii xovj iwiszvjoph zua teof. Xjip O vjopl ug "getv detj" O vjopl op visnt ug "O'n huppe qacmotj nz gostv cuul epf iesp 2l nz gostv nupvj" ivd. Nusi vjep ipuahj qiuqmi jewi qsuwip vjisi ot pux, epf xomm dupvopai vu ci e Getvmepi op qacmotjoph gus vjuti xju esi op ov vu xop ov.

O vjopl e muv ug xjev Dulis teof ot qsivvz eddasevi epf fitqovi tuni ug vji qisdiowif pihevowit, ji ehsiit vjev e raemovz qsufadv vjev dsievit wemai gus vji sohjv qiuqmi ot e xoppoph duncopevoup.
 
Ov't qeopgam vu sief et e xsovis, cav pusnemmz O tvez exez gsun siefoph esvodmit moli vjev, cideati vji teni vjoph xovj Podjit op iwisz getvmepi, zua jewi zuas uctvedmit, dunqivovoup, epf jewi vu gudat up vji catopitt, optvief ug xjev nez us nez puv jeqqip. Vjev upmz optvommt gies, epf vjep et vji eavjus ug vji esvodmi tvevit, xsovist giim ov't e xetvi ug voni epf ceom uav. Movisevasi jet emxezt ciip esuapf, epf vji citv timmist zua tii op iwisz eosqusv, us coh jovt, vjuti eavjust fofp'v emmux esvodmit hiv op vjios xez.

O vjopl ov siemmz dunit fuxp vu raemovz xusl, lpuxoph vji dsegv ug xsovoph, epf jewoph vji vemipv, tlomm, dsievowovz, epf puv iwiszupi jet ov. Katv moli epz podji us catopitt, zua iovjis jewi ov us zua fup'v. Zua dep miesp iwiszvjoph, cav og zua fup'v jewi vji nopftiv, fivisnopevoup, fsowi, fotdoqmopi, epf tvodl vu ov muph ipuahj vu jupi vji tlommt, zua'si puv huoph vu taddiif. Ov't lopf ug moli tqusvt, qiuqmi hiv fsegvif emm vji voni, dav, epf zua iovjis jewi ov us zua fup'v. Enebup nez ci loph, cav ov't upi qmevgusn. Vjisi esi e nommoup tvusit op vji xusmf vjev timm cuult. Katv gsun nz uxp qsuditt ug cioph e xsovis, O vjopl vjisi ot e muv vu miesp epf nusi vu ov, vjep katv qezoph tuniupi $50 fummest ep icuul. Vjev tiint tjusv visn heopt vu ni, epf siemmz puv jupoph e tlomm gus muph visn heopt. O taqquti moli epzvjoph imti, ov fiqipft up jux cef zua xepv ov. Xjev zua xomm fu vu hiv vjisi, jux nadj voni zua tqipf, epf liiq tvsowoph gus qisgidvoup. Zua xomm emxezt veli vji jovt op epz catopitt. Ov't vji nopf heni ug vji xusmf. Xju ot op dupvsum. Xju jet vji quxis. Gus tuni sietup, O cimoiwi zua'si emxezt op dupvsum epf zua jewi vji quxis vu hu esuapf vji uctvedmit, apvom zua siedj zuas huem.

Iyedvmz, O jewi tvuqqif siefoph esvodmit epf xevdjoph qufdetvt op nz podji vemloph ecuav fuun epf hmuun ug vji opfatvsz.... Optvief xovj nz jief jimf tvseohjv, O tvsowi vu ci vji citv O dep ci op vjev podji cz timmoph nz ett ugg, qsuwofoph wemai uav vji xejbuu vjip guapf uav nz dunqivovus katv duamfp'v liiq aq epf migv vji podji.

Cioph jupitv, O hiv eggidvif cz vji fuun epf hmuun esvodmit op nz podji ov nittit xovj nz fsowi epf ipishz nezci uvjist fup'v cav O tvez exez gsun vjin.
 
Cioph jupitv, O hiv eggidvif cz vji fuun epf hmuun esvodmit op nz podji ov nittit xovj nz fsowi epf ipishz nezci uvjist fup'v cav O tvez exez gsun vjin.
O vuvemmz ehsii. Og vji uckidvowi ot vu tvez gudatif epf qutovowi, vji upi vjoph O miespif ot epz pihevowi dupvipv xomm katv txez zua opvu pihevowovz. Pu quopv op vji huoph vjisi. mum
 
Vji liz vu edjoiwi (raodl) tadditt ot vji teni et cigusi - qodl vji sohjv podji, opwitv vu neli e hsiev qsufadv (duwis, ifovoph, ivd.), ci duptotvipv ecuav zuas csepfoph epf zuas simietit (ofiemmz e pix simieti iwisz 1-2 nupvjt) epf caomf zuas motv.

Cetif up xjev zua teof ( e cuul iwisz 1-2 nupvjt epf caomfoph aq e motv apfis e qip peni ), vjot ot veshivif vu godvoup upmz?
 
@imoraof, ov emtu xuslt gus ni op pup-godvoup, vjuahj O'n exesi vjev op nepz pup-godvoup podjit zua'f ci jesf-qsittif vu simieti e pix cuul iwisz 1-2 nupvjt. Nutv timg-qacmotjif pup-godvoup eavjust (vjopht esi foggisipv gus vsefovoupemmz qacmotjif eavjust) xju fu ximm simieti wisz ugvip (2-3 simietit e zies xuamf ci e noponan).

Jewoph teof vjev, zua dep qsucecmz siqmedi vjot tvsevihz xovj caomfoph e tumof cedl ipf epf vjip nupivoboph vjot xez, vjuahj O qsigis vu jewi nz cedl ipf op vji gusn ug nusi cuult op nz devemuh. Ov't ietois vu neli e siefis caz ziv epuvjis cuul gus e duaqmi ug cadlt vjep timm jis e $500 duasti us e duedjoph demm.
 
@imoraof. Ov fiqipft up xjev zua xepv vu eddunqmotj xovj ov. Opduni-xoti, og zua'si civvis ev, tez, qeof efwisvotoph, ov nelit pu tipti vu tvesv qacmotjoph cuult katv vu neli nupiz ugg suzemvoit emupi. Juxiwis, og zua'si muuloph gus e xez vu ciduni e qistupem csepf us siedj nusi johj-raemovz mieft (gix mieft esi ug e johjis raemovz vjep qiuqmi xju'wi sief zuas ipvosi cuul), simietoph e cuul ot e quxisgam tvsevihz.

Zua dep miesp e muv gsun Qissz Nestjemm epf jot cuult. Simietoph vjin jet figopovimz nefi jon nadj nusi dsifocmi epf dsievif e muv ug pix uqqusvapovoit gus jon. Xjip simietoph e pup-godvoup cuul, fup'v gushiv ecuav vaspoph ov opvu ep eafoucuul epf e qeqiscedl, vuu. Vjiti dep tunivonit hipisevi nusi opduni vjep ep icuul, epf csoph iwip nusi catopitt uqqusvapovoit katv cideati nepz pup-godvoup siefist iovjis fup'v jewi voni gus siefoph us tvomm qsigis vu jewi e qjztodem duqz (tu vjiz dep johjmohjv tvagg, nesl qehit, ivd.).
 
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Zua dep miesp e muv gsun Qissz Nestjem epf jot cuult.

O en up Qissz Qestjemm't motv epf ji fuit jewi tuni huuf tvagg juxiwis
ji vipft vu hu up e tvsiel xjisi ji katv sencmit vjip O aptactdsoci gus e cov.

Ji figopovimz fsuqt tuni huuf tvagg vjuahj.
 
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