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Wow. My mind just got blown by a post from @MJ DeMarco. Some background: In the recently closed thread titled: "Quit now, get a job, and why bother. Everything is luck". The OP was complaining that his few half-assed attempts didn't get him anywhere and started to blame luck and basically descend into a quitting mentality. MJ closed the thread with a post about influencing probability that helped me to grasp the concept more clearly than I ever have before, and so I wanted to immediately start a thread about it because it is HUGELY important.
Especially if, like me, you've been a wantrapraneur for a long period of time. Even though that thread is infected with nihilism and closed, I recommend looking it up just to read the last two posts which MJ made.
I titled the thread "Moving the Needle on Probability" because what helped me to really grasp probability was the insight that you can manipulate probability. The question is, how? That question opens up a world of possibilities. Understanding this concept can help you A) Choose an idea you can feel good about committing to, B) Come up with a game plan of actionable steps, and C) Devise a way to measure your progress so that when you're in that desert of desertion, working without reward, you can take solace in the fact that you know you are improving your odds for success.
DISCLAIMER: I'm making the following numbers up, and reality is a little more complex than I will represent it.
So how do you manipulate probability? Well lets say, like me, you want to make $1,000,000 as a fiction author. Let's say 1 in every 5000 fiction writers makes that. So to start, I have a 0.0002% chance of success. Not very great. Okay. How do I improve my probability?
Well let's say that of those 4999 authors who never make it, 300 of them have really shitty covers on their books. Okay, there is an Actionable Step to improve probability. So I pay to get a decent cover made. Now my odds are 1 in 4700, or 0.00021%. Boom! I just Moved the needle on probability! Pretty sweet, right? Not by much, but still. It moved.
Okay, what else can be done? Let's say I discover that of the remaining 4699 authors who never make it, 1000 of them have only written 1 book. So, I write another book. Boom! Now my odds of success are 1 in 3700, or 0.00027%. The needle is moving people!
Now I'm on a role. Now I get another idea: reaching out to individual readers to review my book on book forums. Turns out that of the 3699 remaining that never make it, 400 of them never do that. So I do that. Boom! My odds just became 1 in 3300. I just hit 0.0003%!
I'm getting addicted to this! I discover that of those 3299 that never make it, 2500 of them never write more than 3 books. So over the next year I write 2 more books. 1 in 800! 0.00125%!
25% of unsuccessful authors who do all those things never sell in multiple mediums! In addition to my ebooks, I publish in paperback, hardcover AND audiobooks! 1 in 600! 0.0017% !
400 of those 599 never advertise! I buy some FB ads! 1 in 200! 0.5% ! NOW I'M COOKING!
100 of those 199 never improve their copywriting skills! I do! 1 in 100! Now I have a 1% chance! WHAT ELSE CAN I DO???
Now let's say that of those 99 remaining writers who never make $1,000,000 writing, 92 of them never take the time to study character and plot development, to listen to how their writing sounds to improve the flow, they never take the time to study how to build suspense, how a story can make somebody feel sadness, joy, anger, wonder, or otherwise emotionally impacted. They never take the time to study how to create the context in a story to build intensity in a conflict.
Let's say I put the work in, and I do all of these things. Now my odds are 1 in 7, or 14%. Pretty damn good.
This is an example of how engaging in certain processes can manipulate probability. It can work in any industry. What is the value array? Improve in any area, and you can move your own needle.
Some more random examples:
- Packaging sucks? Improve it!
- Shitty lead time dropshipping? Order stock ahead of time.
- Lack of success cold calling? Record your calls and listen to yourself. Are you talking too fast? Learn to slow down. Congratulations, you've just moved the needle.
I never understood before why MJ put so many "To Do's" on the "My Fastlane Daily" worksheet. Now I do. There are so many ways to move the needle. If any of you are pursuing self publishing, here is the To Do list I just laid out:
1. Get a better cover.
2. Write another book.
3. Reach out in book forums.
4. Write more books.
5. Publish an audio book.
6. Publish in paperback and hardcopy
7. Advertise
8. Improve copywriting
9. Study plot development
10. Study emotional scenes
Etcetera.
Funny story, while writing this post I found this article by a writer who says the same thing: What Are the REAL Odds of Being a Successful Author? - Kristen Lamb
Again, you can apply this principle to any business. Pretty cool right?
Especially if, like me, you've been a wantrapraneur for a long period of time. Even though that thread is infected with nihilism and closed, I recommend looking it up just to read the last two posts which MJ made.
I titled the thread "Moving the Needle on Probability" because what helped me to really grasp probability was the insight that you can manipulate probability. The question is, how? That question opens up a world of possibilities. Understanding this concept can help you A) Choose an idea you can feel good about committing to, B) Come up with a game plan of actionable steps, and C) Devise a way to measure your progress so that when you're in that desert of desertion, working without reward, you can take solace in the fact that you know you are improving your odds for success.
DISCLAIMER: I'm making the following numbers up, and reality is a little more complex than I will represent it.
So how do you manipulate probability? Well lets say, like me, you want to make $1,000,000 as a fiction author. Let's say 1 in every 5000 fiction writers makes that. So to start, I have a 0.0002% chance of success. Not very great. Okay. How do I improve my probability?
Well let's say that of those 4999 authors who never make it, 300 of them have really shitty covers on their books. Okay, there is an Actionable Step to improve probability. So I pay to get a decent cover made. Now my odds are 1 in 4700, or 0.00021%. Boom! I just Moved the needle on probability! Pretty sweet, right? Not by much, but still. It moved.
Okay, what else can be done? Let's say I discover that of the remaining 4699 authors who never make it, 1000 of them have only written 1 book. So, I write another book. Boom! Now my odds of success are 1 in 3700, or 0.00027%. The needle is moving people!
Now I'm on a role. Now I get another idea: reaching out to individual readers to review my book on book forums. Turns out that of the 3699 remaining that never make it, 400 of them never do that. So I do that. Boom! My odds just became 1 in 3300. I just hit 0.0003%!
I'm getting addicted to this! I discover that of those 3299 that never make it, 2500 of them never write more than 3 books. So over the next year I write 2 more books. 1 in 800! 0.00125%!
25% of unsuccessful authors who do all those things never sell in multiple mediums! In addition to my ebooks, I publish in paperback, hardcover AND audiobooks! 1 in 600! 0.0017% !
400 of those 599 never advertise! I buy some FB ads! 1 in 200! 0.5% ! NOW I'M COOKING!
100 of those 199 never improve their copywriting skills! I do! 1 in 100! Now I have a 1% chance! WHAT ELSE CAN I DO???
Now let's say that of those 99 remaining writers who never make $1,000,000 writing, 92 of them never take the time to study character and plot development, to listen to how their writing sounds to improve the flow, they never take the time to study how to build suspense, how a story can make somebody feel sadness, joy, anger, wonder, or otherwise emotionally impacted. They never take the time to study how to create the context in a story to build intensity in a conflict.
Let's say I put the work in, and I do all of these things. Now my odds are 1 in 7, or 14%. Pretty damn good.
This is an example of how engaging in certain processes can manipulate probability. It can work in any industry. What is the value array? Improve in any area, and you can move your own needle.
Some more random examples:
- Packaging sucks? Improve it!
- Shitty lead time dropshipping? Order stock ahead of time.
- Lack of success cold calling? Record your calls and listen to yourself. Are you talking too fast? Learn to slow down. Congratulations, you've just moved the needle.
I never understood before why MJ put so many "To Do's" on the "My Fastlane Daily" worksheet. Now I do. There are so many ways to move the needle. If any of you are pursuing self publishing, here is the To Do list I just laid out:
1. Get a better cover.
2. Write another book.
3. Reach out in book forums.
4. Write more books.
5. Publish an audio book.
6. Publish in paperback and hardcopy
7. Advertise
8. Improve copywriting
9. Study plot development
10. Study emotional scenes
Etcetera.
Funny story, while writing this post I found this article by a writer who says the same thing: What Are the REAL Odds of Being a Successful Author? - Kristen Lamb
Again, you can apply this principle to any business. Pretty cool right?
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