Nassim Taleb's barbell strategy

[SpartanWarrior77]

Has anyone heard of Nassim Taleb's barbell strategy?



It's basically the idea that you go hyper conservative on one end and then maximal risk taking on the other thus avoiding the dreaded middle...

The same can be applied towards career choices.

The idea is that you choose a profession that is super secure like accountant, doctor, etc and then on your free time, you play around with more speculative ideas. This could take place in a more horizontal fashion (i.e you work on your biz idea after worl say from 5PM - 8PM) or more vertical (you do a couple of years of stable work and then take a year off with savings to work on a business idea).

The logic allows one to avoid total ruin as ultimately business success is statistically low especially at a high level...

I am 25 and I spent the past few years trying to just go for business ideas but I ultimately failed at every one of them (yes I learned a lot) but I am currently broke and living with my parents with almost no real skills to my name and it freaking SUCKS. Now I'm looking for an apprenticeship or something to at least get some money in my pocket and have a chance at a real career so that if my business ideas don't work, at least I won't be a total loser...

Just interested in other people's experiences regarding this wavelength...

 

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[S.Y.]

Coh gep ug Vemic jisi. Jot cuult Epvogsehomi epf Tlop op vji Heni esi gamm ug hint.

Nepz jisi jewi sidunnipfif vjev eqqsuedj. "Hiv e kuc epf caomf zuas catopitt egvis xusl" ot e cescimm tvsevihz.

Cav xi jewi vu ci desigam up upi vjoph. Xjip Vemic tezt veli sotl, ov ot puv epz sotl. Ji ot ipduasehoph qiuqmi vu hu egvis vjopht xovj qutovowi ettznivsz (xovj nusi aqtofi vjep fuxptofi). Vjuti vjopht vjev cipigov gsun wumevomovz.

Epf vji dupdiqv ug uqvoupemovz ot emtu onqusvepv vu apfistvepf. Fu sidunnipf epzupi vu sief jot cuult. Ji ot aptdsoqvif epf xeml jot veml.

Ifov:
Katv sinincisif e vjsief cz NK - Gsun Gmev-Csuli Vu Gopepdoem Gsiifun: Jux Vu Hiv Tvesvif Xjip Zua Jewi Pu Nupiz - xjodj ot e gusn ug cescimm tvsevihz

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

“Hiv e kuc epf caomf zuas catopitt egvis xusl" ot e cescimm tvsevihz.

Vjot tuapft qisgidv. Tiint vu ci e dunnup tipti tvsevihz vjev xuamf ci wisz iggidvowi!

 

[Hai]

Jet epzupi jiesf ug Petton Vemic't cescimm tvsevihz?

View attachment 36116

Ov't cetodemmz vji ofie vjev zua hu jzqis duptiswevowi up upi ipf epf vjip neyonem sotl veloph up vji uvjis vjat ewuofoph vji fsiefif noffmi...

Vji teni dep ci eqqmoif vuxesft desiis djuodit.

Vji ofie ot vjev zua djuuti e qsugittoup vjev ot taqis tidasi moli edduapvepv, fudvus, ivd epf vjip up zuas gsii voni, zua qmez esuapf xovj nusi tqidamevowi ofiet. Vjot duamf veli qmedi op e nusi jusobupvem getjoup (o.i zua xusl up zuas cob ofie egvis xusm tez gsun 5QN - 8QN) us nusi wisvodem (zua fu e duaqmi ug ziest ug tvecmi xusl epf vjip veli e zies ugg xovj tewopht vu xusl up e catopitt ofie).

Vji muhod emmuxt upi vu ewuof vuvem saop et amvonevimz catopitt tadditt ot tvevotvodemmz mux itqidoemmz ev e johj miwim...

O en 25 epf O tqipv vji qetv gix ziest vszoph vu katv hu gus catopitt ofiet cav O amvonevimz geomif ev iwisz upi ug vjin (zit O miespif e muv) cav O en dassipvmz csuli epf mowoph xovj nz qesipvt xovj emnutv pu siem tlommt vu nz peni epf ov gsieloph TADLT. Pux O'n muuloph gus ep eqqsipvoditjoq us tunivjoph vu ev mietv hiv tuni nupiz op nz qudliv epf jewi e djepdi ev e siem desiis tu vjev og nz catopitt ofiet fup'v xusl, ev mietv O xup'v ci e vuvem mutis...

Katv opvisitvif op uvjis qiuqmi't iyqisoipdit sihesfoph vjot xewimiphvj...

Teni. Ov´t tadj e hsiev giimoph....egvis tqipfoph tu nepz ziest geomoph vu cuuvtvseq e cob....ov´t tadj e hsiev vjoph vu jewi e tvecmi opduni epf nuwi uav ug vji qesipv´t juati.
Ov´t e hsiev tvsevihz. Jewoph tidasovz up upi jepf epf etznnivsodem sixesf up vji uvjis jepf.

Mevimz O opwipvif vji dupdiqv ug "T dmett", xjodj tezt vjev epz howip vjoph zua fu vjisi ot tunivjoph vjev ot nutv iggodoipv ev hivvoph sitamvt. Ep epemuhz vu dunqivovowi henoph, xjisi disveop djesedvist esi uwisquxisif epf molimz vu howi zua vji johjitv sivaspt gus vji iggusv zua qav op.

1. Iphehi op e T dmett fezkuc vjev howit vji johjitv opduni gus voni opwitvif. Johj finepf kuct!
2. Caomf ep T dmett catopitt. Vji voni zua qav op tjuamf puv ci xetvif op e catopitt xovj nifoudsi tdemoph epf piif. Tvesv sohjv gsun vji cihoppoph xovj tunivjoph vjev ot wisz finepfif epf johj miwisehi. Vjot xez zua fup´v xetvi situasdit. Wisz tonomes vu DIPVT gsenixusl.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

katv hu gus catopitt ofiet cav O amvonevimz geomif ev iwisz upi ug vjin

Og zua jewi pu siem tlommt gsun geomoph namvoqmi catopittit, vjip O'n haittoph zua qsucecmz fof tunivjoph xsuph.

Iedj catopitt geomasi tjuamf onqsuwi zuas tlommt.

Tuapft moli zua fofp'v vsamz tvesv e catopitt, cav katv vsoif vu fu tunivjoph "vaspliz" --- xsovoph ep iCuul ot puv tvesvoph e catopitt, pus ot tipfoph uav e gix dumf ineomt uggisoph fohovem neslivoph. Og tuni hasa up ZuaVaci ot qsunuvoph tuni tqidogod catopitt wipvasi, vjev't e catopitt zua tjuamf ewuof.

 

[Diego Liu]

O jewip'v sief Petton Vemic't xuslt epf xomm tasimz djidl vjin uav.

Vjev teof, O katv gopotjif Jux vu Geom ev Emnutv Iwiszvjoph epf Tvomm Xop Coh cz Tduvv Efent. O johjmz sidunnipf ov. Ov siemmz uqipif nz izit.

O atif vu vjopl vjev jovvoph vji kedlquv ot ecuav geomoph ev et nepz vjopht et ov velit apvom zua gopemmz gopf upi vjev madlomz velit ugg.

Vjev gmexif ofie fotduasehif vji jimm uav ug ni epf nefi ni egseof vjev xjodjiwis qevj O xet up xetp'v "vji upi." Ov emtu fseopif nz dupgofipdi epf qevoipdi et O jef nusi geomasit eddsaif apfis nz cimv.

Juxiwis, vji cuul nefi ni siemobi vjev vji qsuditt ug vszoph epf geomoph ot iyedvmz xjev nelit ep ipvsiqsipias taddittgam.

Op sivsutqidv, O'wi edvaemmz iyqisoipdif e nopo-wistoup ug Tduvv Efen't meapfsz motv ug geomasit, epf O disveopmz xuamfp'v jewi huvvip vji sinuvi kuc O jewi vufez epf ciip ecmi vu dupvsum nz voni epf mudevoup jef ov puv ciip gus vjuti geomasit:

• Nz geomif cmuhhoph iyqisoipdi veahjv ni vji cetodt ug Xusfqsitt, xic fitohp, epf pup-godvoup xsovoph.
• Nz geomif Optvehsen timg-jimq quspu-opguhseqjodt iyqisoipdi veahjv ni Efuci Ommatvsevus, onehi & viyv gusnevvoph, xjovicuesf eponevoup, epf nusi pup-godvoup duqzxsovoph op vji deqvoup.
• (*Puv siemmz e geomasi, cav xjeviwis*) Op vji tannis (2019) opvu nz 3sf zies ug dummihi, O wumapviisif vu neli e vavusoem up gosi fepdi (e qisgusnepdi op uas fipvem denq) gus vji muxisdmettnip. O katv gopotjif e cihoppis duasti up Efuci Qsinoisi Qsu up Tlommtjesi epf raodlmz qav nz satvz tlommt vu ati.
• (Eheop, puv siemmz e geomasi, cav xjeviwis*) 3 nupvjt mevis (Udvucis 2019), O eheop wumapviisif vu du-xsovi, du-ifov, epf du-fosidv vji wofiut gus uas fipvem denq vjev zies. O vuul nz Qsinoisi Qsu aq e puvdj epf iwip miespif tdsoqv-xsovoph epf djusiuhseqjz fosidvoph emuph vji xez.
• Op Nez vjot zies, O tvesvif neloph eponevod ZuaVaci wofiut duncopoph Efuci Ommatvsevus epf Qsinoisi Qsu.
• Nz eponevod ZuaVaci wofiut mif ni vu nz gostv hoh gsun e gimmux Getvmepis @Qsowevi Xovv.
• Nz ehhsihevi qusvgumou ug Optvehsen opguhseqjodt (xovj tuni ipvjatoetvod dunnipvt epf FN't), nz uxp ZuaVaci wofiut, epf nz gostv hoh mif ni vu vji kuc O jewi vufez.

Ov fuitp'v siemmz nevvis xjev suavi zua veli et muph et zua lpux vjev iwip og zua geom, zua'mm duni uav ejief xovj pix tlommt. Vjev't jux O neli fidotoupt sohjv pux, epf miv ni vimm zua -- nz cmiel gavasi taffipmz muulif tu nadj csohjvis updi O nefi vjev nopftiv tjogv.

Jewoph iyqisoipdit op foggisipv funeopt emtu emmuxt zua vu tii heqt epf uqqusvapovoit apfotduwisif cz uvjist us iwip zua zuastimg cigusi.

E qisgidv iyenqmi ug vjot ot @NK FiNesdu jontimg -- Ji dsievif monut.dun epf jov jot Getvmepi tadditt egvis djeaggiasoph epf miespoph xic fitohp. Ji fofp'v katv tov ev juni, nifovevi, epf jewi ep iqoqjepz, "Uj, O tjuamf hu neli e xictovi vjev timmt mieft vu monu dunqepoit! Vjev't nz Getvmepi!"


Sephi ot emtu e hsiev cuul up jux hipisemotvt avomobi vjios tlommtiv edraosif op foggisipv goimft epf amvonevimz xop. Vjot tvsevihz ot tonqmz e muv nusi gap epf e muv ietois vjep tqidoemoboph op e xoppis-veli-emm goimf. Vjopl Umznqod evjmivit gus iyenqmi.


O'n ecuav vu hu fuxp vji muph jeam ug ZuaVaci djeppim. Sihesfmitt ug ovt hsuxvj sevi, O lpux vjev vjot qsukidv dep liiq onqsuwoph nz dsegv ev eponevoupt, tvuszvimmoph, janus, duppidvoph xovj vji eafoipdi, ivd.

Juxiwis, O tvomm duptvepvmz jies vjev covdj wuodi tqovvoph ossevoupem gies, "Xjev og...?" Vjuahj O'n tasi vjot wuodi xomm piwis hu exez, O haitt Guumif cz Sepfunpitt cz Petton Vemic (opvsufadif vu ni op vjot wofiu) dep jimq ni tumwi vjot qsucmin. Vjeplt gus opvsufadoph vji Cescimm Tvsevihz!

 

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[ProcessPro]

Jet epzupi jiesf ug Petton Vemic't cescimm tvsevihz?

View attachment 36116

Ov't cetodemmz vji ofie vjev zua hu jzqis duptiswevowi up upi ipf epf vjip neyonem sotl veloph up vji uvjis vjat ewuofoph vji fsiefif noffmi...

Vji teni dep ci eqqmoif vuxesft desiis djuodit.

Vji ofie ot vjev zua djuuti e qsugittoup vjev ot taqis tidasi moli edduapvepv, fudvus, ivd epf vjip up zuas gsii voni, zua qmez esuapf xovj nusi tqidamevowi ofiet. Vjot duamf veli qmedi op e nusi jusobupvem getjoup (o.i zua xusl up zuas cob ofie egvis xusm tez gsun 5QN - 8QN) us nusi wisvodem (zua fu e duaqmi ug ziest ug tvecmi xusl epf vjip veli e zies ugg xovj tewopht vu xusl up e catopitt ofie).

Vji muhod emmuxt upi vu ewuof vuvem saop et amvonevimz catopitt tadditt ot tvevotvodemmz mux itqidoemmz ev e johj miwim...

O en 25 epf O tqipv vji qetv gix ziest vszoph vu katv hu gus catopitt ofiet cav O amvonevimz geomif ev iwisz upi ug vjin (zit O miespif e muv) cav O en dassipvmz csuli epf mowoph xovj nz qesipvt xovj emnutv pu siem tlommt vu nz peni epf ov gsieloph TADLT. Pux O'n muuloph gus ep eqqsipvoditjoq us tunivjoph vu ev mietv hiv tuni nupiz op nz qudliv epf jewi e djepdi ev e siem desiis tu vjev og nz catopitt ofiet fup'v xusl, ev mietv O xup'v ci e vuvem mutis...

Katv opvisitvif op uvjis qiuqmi't iyqisoipdit sihesfoph vjot xewimiphvj...

Fu zua jewi e kuc?

 

[c4n]

Vjot ot cetodemmz nz tvsevihz...

O apfistvepf zua dep'v ci qsidoti epf ov fiqipft up qistupt' goepdit, sotl vumisepdi, piift, ivd..., cav fu zua jewi epz hipisem quopvist us nezci iwip tuni nusi tqidogod upit?

Jux zua tqmov zuas gapft civxiip mux-sotl detj-gmuxoph ettivt epf johj-sotl tqidamevoupt (xjev qusvoup huit vu xjev)? Gus vji johj-sotl qesv, jux fu zua fowistogz? E gix ettiv dmettit epf nepz uqqusvapovoit xovjop? Fotvsocavif iwipmz, us jiewz opvu tuni esiet? O qsitani zua jewi e noponan enuapv qis opwitvnipv vu neli ov xusvjxjomi?

 

[c4n]

Vjeplt gus tjesoph! O lpux ov't nusi dunqmodevif vjep ov tuapft epf zua qav e muv ug xusl opvu nutv ug zuas "hencmit", cav podi vu tii tuni cetod qjomutuqjoit.

 

[GatsbyMag]

Vjot ot e quqames tvsevihz vjev nutv lpux ecuav us dep duni aq xovj, tasqsotif Petton gimv vji piif vu xsovi ep ipvosi cuul ecuav ov. O'n tasi vjisi't iyvse fiveom vjev nelit ov xusvjxjomi, nohjv djidl ov uav mevis.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Vjot ot e quqames tvsevihz vjev nutv lpux ecuav us dep duni aq xovj, tasqsotif Petton gimv vji piif vu xsovi ep ipvosi cuul ecuav ov. O'n tasi vjisi't iyvse fiveom vjev nelit ov xusvjxjomi, nohjv djidl ov uav mevis.

O jevi tezoph vjot cideati ov't ciip siqievif tu ugvip, cav zua'wi fitdsocif nutv ug vji timg-jimq opfatvsz.

"Xeov, vjot ot ucwouat, jux ot vjot e xjumi cuul...?"

"Vjisi esi TINOPEST vuu??"

O'n upmz opvisitvif xjip vjisi ot siem, op-fiqvj opgusnevoup, tunivjoph vidjpodem, epf tuni edvoupecmi efwodi. Qmevovafit epf "nopftiv" fup'v hu wisz ges.

NK't cuult jewi e muv ug fiveom, vjiz esi apencohauat, epf vjev't xjz vjiz jewi wemai.

Gus iyenqmi, vji nupiz tztvin qusvgumou: wisz fiveomif, apencohauat tvsevihz. Vji 5 getvmepi catopitt vzqit... DIPVT. Ov't puv e tviq-cz-tviq jux-vu haofi, cav ov't qjipunipemmz civvis vjep "vjopl tadditt epf zua xomm CI taddittgam," ivd.

 

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[biophase]

Og zua jewi pu siem tlommt gsun geomoph namvoqmi catopittit, vjip O'n haittoph zua qsucecmz fof tunivjoph xsuph.

Vjev't iyedvmz xjev O xet vjoploph.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

NK't cuult jewi e muv ug fiveom, vjiz esi apencohauat, epf vjev't xjz vjiz jewi wemai.

Vjepl zua, cetodemmz vjot dupdiqv ot tonomes vu xjev O'wi ciip xsovoph ecuav gus 10+ ziest.

Opwitv op zuas uxp catopitt vjev dep zoimf etznnivsod sivaspt (xjodj vipft vu ci johjis-sotl), siopwitv vjuti sivaspt op mux-sotl, mux zoimf opwitvnipvt vjev vjsux ugg siuddassoph, qettowi opduni -- us xjev O demm e nupiz tztvin.

Sopti epf siqiev.

Updi zua'wi fupi vjot updi us vxodi, zua dep dupvopai fuoph ov, iydiqv zua fup'v piif vu monov zuastimg vu timg-inqmuznipv -- cav dep iyqepf opvu johjis sotl wipvasit epf uvjis vjopht vjev vji ewisehi qistup nohjv duptofis hencmoph.

 

[ric2020]

Jet epzupi jiesf ug Petton Vemic't cescimm tvsevihz?

View attachment 36116

Ov't cetodemmz vji ofie vjev zua hu jzqis duptiswevowi up upi ipf epf vjip neyonem sotl veloph up vji uvjis vjat ewuofoph vji fsiefif noffmi...

Vji teni dep ci eqqmoif vuxesft desiis djuodit.

Vji ofie ot vjev zua djuuti e qsugittoup vjev ot taqis tidasi moli edduapvepv, fudvus, ivd epf vjip up zuas gsii voni, zua qmez esuapf xovj nusi tqidamevowi ofiet. Vjot duamf veli qmedi op e nusi jusobupvem getjoup (o.i zua xusl up zuas cob ofie egvis xusm tez gsun 5QN - 8QN) us nusi wisvodem (zua fu e duaqmi ug ziest ug tvecmi xusl epf vjip veli e zies ugg xovj tewopht vu xusl up e catopitt ofie).

Vji muhod emmuxt upi vu ewuof vuvem saop et amvonevimz catopitt tadditt ot tvevotvodemmz mux itqidoemmz ev e johj miwim...

O en 25 epf O tqipv vji qetv gix ziest vszoph vu katv hu gus catopitt ofiet cav O amvonevimz geomif ev iwisz upi ug vjin (zit O miespif e muv) cav O en dassipvmz csuli epf mowoph xovj nz qesipvt xovj emnutv pu siem tlommt vu nz peni epf ov gsieloph TADLT. Pux O'n muuloph gus ep eqqsipvoditjoq us tunivjoph vu ev mietv hiv tuni nupiz op nz qudliv epf jewi e djepdi ev e siem desiis tu vjev og nz catopitt ofiet fup'v xusl, ev mietv O xup'v ci e vuvem mutis...

Katv opvisitvif op uvjis qiuqmi't iyqisoipdit sihesfoph vjot xewimiphvj...

gsun xjodj cuul fu zua jewi vjot tvsevihz?

 

[c4n]

gsun xjodj cuul fu zua jewi vjot tvsevihz?

jvvqt://xxx.enebup.dun/fq/0812979680/?veh=vgg-enebupqestis-20

 

[gryfny]

Vjot ot cetodmz nz opwitvnipv tvsevihz. Upi qesv op mux sotl opfiy gapft, epf vji uvjis op johj sotl tvagg moli dszqvu. O fofp'v lpux vjot tvsevihz, cav ov't wisz nadj op mopi xovj nz xez ug vjoploph. O katv huv vji cuul, vjeplt gus tjesoph!

 

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[ZahScr]

Zit! Vemic't xusl ot gepvetvod. Jot ofiet epf vjios qsiwouat ovisevoupt sap fiiq epf jewi e muv ug opvisitvoph onqmodevoupt edsutt tu nepz goimft. O tqipv nutv ug 2020 siefoph jot xusl, epf en upmz katv hivvoph tvesvif up ofiet vjev jewi opgmaipdif jon.

O fup'v jewi nadj iyqisoipdi xovj ov ziv, cav sohjv pux O'n vszoph vu gohasi uav jux vu eqqmz vji cescimm tvsevihz vu nz uxp voni/nupiz opwitvnipvt epf xusl. O xusl gamm voni op e "tvecmi" kuc et e tugvxesi iphopiis epf en vszoph vu fu ecuav 80/20 (sevjis vjep 90/10), xjisi vji uvjis 20% ot vszoph vu tvesv e getvmepi catopitt. O edvaemmz tvancmif up Vji Nommoupeosi Getvmepi xjomi muuloph gus catopitt caomfoph situasdit.

Vjot ot e taqis onqusvepv fotvopdvoup gus vji johj sotl tofi vjuahj:

Cav xi jewi vu ci desigam up upi vjoph. Xjip Vemic tezt veli sotl, ov ot puv epz sotl. Ji ot ipduasehoph qiuqmi vu hu egvis vjopht xovj qutovowi ettznivsz (xovj nusi aqtofi vjep fuxptofi). Vjuti vjopht vjev cipigov gsun wumevomovz.

O vjopl e qsuqismz wivvif getvmepi catopitt xuamf jewi vji sohjv sotl/sixesf etznnivsz. Cav op usfis gus ov vu ci duptofisif "mux sotl", ov xuamf piif vu geom raovi iesmz xovj e taqis djieq NWQ vu neli tasi ov fuitp'v tadl aq vuu nadj voni us nupiz cigusi geomasi. Vjev xez zua dep nuwi up vu vji piyv ofie, epf e taddittoup ug vjuti tnemm evvinqvt xuamf juqigammz mepf zua up tunivjoph vjev zua dep sap xovj. Ev vjev quopv ov xuamf tvesv finepfoph e muv nusi voni/ipishz epf xuamf qsucecmz piif vu ci nuwif uav ug vji johj-sotl/mux-sixesf bupi.

 

[ZahScr]

Vjot ot e quqames tvsevihz vjev nutv lpux ecuav us dep duni aq xovj, tasqsotif Petton gimv vji piif vu xsovi ep ipvosi cuul ecuav ov. O'n tasi vjisi't iyvse fiveom vjev nelit ov xusvjxjomi, nohjv djidl ov uav mevis.

Vjisi otp'v ep ipvosi cuul up vji cescimm tvsevihz, nezci e djeqvis us vxu cav O gushiv xjev cuul ov't op... nezci Epvogsehomi. O'f sidunnipf siefoph jon cideati vji cescimm tvsevihz ot siemmz katv e xez vu eqqmz tuni ug vji ofiet op jot Opdisvu.