This was a reply that I sent to a private PM. I think it's worth repeating here:
On the average bet, you're expected to lose 5% of the money you bet. That's how the book makes money. That means that you have to have an advantage over that margin in order to squeeze out a positive EV profit.
So you have to hit 52.5% of your bets at even odds just to make money. Sounds easy. It's not.
British sportsbooks have become sophisticated to the point that if you make over $20k, they start banning players, or limit your account. All that tech is now operating the new American sportsbooks.
In my opinion, the game is set up for you to lose. The upside is gone. It's not a skill worth pursuing unless your ultimate goal is to be a quant that creates his own sportsbook.
Bet what you're willing to lose. Consider it enjoyment but don't consider it an investment.
If you don't know if a bet is good or not, look up where the public money is. There's tracking services that you have to pay for in order for it to be accurate. Something like Public Sports Betting & Money Percentages (I've been out of the game for like five years - this is the first one that popped up on Google). If you're on the opposite side of the public, and you're betting for fun, then bet. If you're betting where everyone else is (the hype), then higher chance you lose.
Only bets worth making are where the public is extremely biased (Conor McGregor, American hyped fighters, New York teams, etc.), and knowing that the opposite side is more likely to win. Everything else is not worth it.
On the average bet, you're expected to lose 5% of the money you bet. That's how the book makes money. That means that you have to have an advantage over that margin in order to squeeze out a positive EV profit.
So you have to hit 52.5% of your bets at even odds just to make money. Sounds easy. It's not.
British sportsbooks have become sophisticated to the point that if you make over $20k, they start banning players, or limit your account. All that tech is now operating the new American sportsbooks.
In my opinion, the game is set up for you to lose. The upside is gone. It's not a skill worth pursuing unless your ultimate goal is to be a quant that creates his own sportsbook.
Bet what you're willing to lose. Consider it enjoyment but don't consider it an investment.
If you don't know if a bet is good or not, look up where the public money is. There's tracking services that you have to pay for in order for it to be accurate. Something like Public Sports Betting & Money Percentages (I've been out of the game for like five years - this is the first one that popped up on Google). If you're on the opposite side of the public, and you're betting for fun, then bet. If you're betting where everyone else is (the hype), then higher chance you lose.
Only bets worth making are where the public is extremely biased (Conor McGregor, American hyped fighters, New York teams, etc.), and knowing that the opposite side is more likely to win. Everything else is not worth it.
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