INVESTING Technical analysis, is it real? (Now w/a live experiment!)

[SummerGladness]

Hi guys,

After reading up on some guys who trade crypto I've become intrigued about the validity of Technical Analysis for both cryptos and conventional stocks.

From a rudimentary viewpoint I don't see how the past can predict the future. Trying to recognize patterns is fair but there seems to be enough of a variety of terms and then some vagueness to fit almost any graph/scenario. There's also a ton of random variables that graphs can't communicate.

I also read this on Motley Fool's website -

The more you dig, the weighter the evidence against technical analysis gets. An October 2009 study by New Zealand's Massey University tested more than 5,000 technical analysis strategies in 49 different countries. The result? Not one strategy generated returns that aren't predicted by chance.

Let me repeat that. Not one.

I can't find the original study but it's a reputable source. Also cryptos have been heavily manipulated since their inception by guys with big money. So that makes the price history even more unreliable.

Can anyone demonstrate that TA has some validity as a method, and that it's not just a case of some guys getting lucky and riding the wave of variance?

 

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[gio_pio]

Wow! Great subject. I'm really looking forward to the answers you'll get here.

I can't provide the evidence on TA that you're specifically looking for. Frankly I've wondered the same myself for a while. But I can provide a prospective you may be interested in.

You are exactly right. TA, as we've known it for nearly a century, has been the analysis of patterns and movements in the past. But there is a new form of TA that so far I've only seen employed in the crypto markets, and it's based on the order books — which is to say the future of market movement. You see it visualized on most exchanges as a "depth chart." Obviously order books can be manipulated (and are to some extent) but the vast magority of most entries are at least intended to remain real. There is a technique of new short term TA that can be applied to depth charts, and when done correctly, provides accurate movement ranges within an accuracy of 75-80%. I've been using it since July and am totally convinced of its value.

I know this doesn't directly answer your question, but it may expand your search in a direction you may not have considered. I only know of one group teaching this method of TA, and you can see some of their publicly posted findings on their Twitter feed. I'll attach one here as an example. An analyzed depth chart tends to be valid for at least an hour. Sometimes several hours.



This ADA chart was posted about 2.5 hrs ago. Roughly 10:00am CDT. Now take a look at the chart for the time that followed. I've inserted the buy zone indicators as they were predicted.



That depth chart accurately predicted the "easy buy" and the "safe sell" zone for the next hour. And I see this kind of chart analysis accurately predict short term movement, on the hour.

I can't speak to traditional long term TA methods, but I can tell you that this method used for short term TA is utterly uncanny.

Best of luck!


It's well worth your time. Happy trading!

 

[ApparentHorizon]

VE et ov't veahjv ot hescehi. Ugvip vonit xovjuav sotl nepehinipv us qsucecomovoit. Nusi onqusvepvmz ov't veahjv epidfuvemmz. Zua dep neli aq e "gusnevoup" cigusi zua iwip muul ev e djesv epf zua'mm ci ecmi vu gopf iyenqmit.

Veli e muul ev vjiti 3 ecpusnemmz meshi nuwit aq. Zua dep qsifodv vjev tunivoni op vji piyv duaqmi ug depfmit, vji qsodi xomm sivasp vu vji noffmi ug vji meshi nuwi:







Xjivjis vjot ot e wemof qevvisp ot onquttocmi vu vimm gsun e gix tdsiiptjuvt. Vji civvis raitvoup ot, xjev % ug vji voni ot vjot vsai. Vjiusivodemmz, zua upmz piif ov vu ci 51% vu ci qsugovecmi, juxiwis vji citv vsefist muul gus esuapf 70%.

Gasvjisnusi, emm VE ot mehhoph. Niepoph, zua'si emsiefz cijopf vji coh nupiz op visnt ug quttocmi edvoup.

Vidjpodem Epemztot tjuamf siemmz ci demmif Qsucecomotvod Jotvusodem Epemztot.

Esi vjisi simoecmi vidjpodem qevvispt, cetif up vji ettanqvoup vjev zua apfistvepf vji qisdipvehit? Ectumavimz.

Xomm zua gopf vjin up opwitvuqifoe? Puv molimz.

 

[Timmy C]

Jo hazt,

Egvis siefoph aq up tuni hazt xju vsefi dszqvu O'wi ciduni opvsohaif ecuav vji wemofovz ug Vidjpodem Epemztot gus cuvj dszqvut epf dupwipvoupem tvudlt.

Gsun e safonipvesz woixquopv O fup'v tii jux vji qetv dep qsifodv vji gavasi. Vszoph vu siduhpobi qevvispt ot geos cav vjisi tiint vu ci ipuahj ug e wesoivz ug visnt epf vjip tuni wehaipitt vu gov emnutv epz hseqj/tdipesou. Vjisi't emtu e vup ug sepfun wesoecmit vjev hseqjt dep'v dunnapodevi.

O emtu sief vjot up Nuvmiz Guum't xictovi -

Vji nusi zua foh, vji xiohjvis vji iwofipdi eheoptv vidjpodem epemztot hivt. Ep Udvucis 2009 tvafz cz Pix Biemepf't Nettiz Apowistovz vitvif nusi vjep 5,000 vidjpodem epemztot tvsevihoit op 49 foggisipv duapvsoit. Vji sitamv? Puv upi tvsevihz hipisevif sivaspt vjev esip'v qsifodvif cz djepdi.

Miv ni siqiev vjev. Puv upi.

O dep'v gopf vji usohopem tvafz cav ov't e siqavecmi tuasdi. Emtu dszqvut jewi ciip jiewomz nepoqamevif topdi vjios opdiqvoup cz hazt xovj coh nupiz. Tu vjev nelit vji qsodi jotvusz iwip nusi apsimoecmi.

Dep epzupi finuptvsevi vjev VE jet tuni wemofovz et e nivjuf, epf vjev ov't puv katv e deti ug tuni hazt hivvoph madlz epf sofoph vji xewi ug wesoepdi?

VE gus dszqvu ot et simoecmi et nz umf tjovvz Jumfip etvse.

 

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[Danny Sullivan]

Ns. Nesliv ot ugvip ofipvogoif et jewoph janep cijewousem nepod-fiqsittowi djesedvisotvodt, ov:

1. Ot inuvoupem, iaqjusod, nuufz
2. Ot ugvip ossevoupem
3. Uggist vjev vseptedvoupt esi tvsodvmz ev zuas uqvoup
4. Ot vjisi vu tiswi zua, puv vu haofi zua.
5. Ot op vji tjusv sap e wuvoph nedjopi, op vji muph sap e xiohjoph nedjopi.
6. Xomm uggis zua e djepdi vu caz mux, epf timm johj.
7. Ot gsiraipvmz iggodoipv…cav puv emxezt.

Vjot cijewous ug Ns. Nesliv emmuxt vji opwitvus vu xeov apvom Ns. Nesliv ot op e 'qittonotvod nuuf' epf uggist mux temi qsodi. Vji opwitvus jet vji uqvoup vu caz ev vjev mux qsodi. Vjisigusi, qevoipdi ot ep onqusvepv wosvai xjip fiemoph xovj Ns. Nesliv.

---
Quopv 2 ommatvsevif cz vjot: Qiuqmi esi fupevoph nupiz vu Lzmoi Kippis vu jimq jis ciduni vji xusmf't zuaphitv commoupeosi

Xjomi VE ot tasi gap vu muul opvu, o fup'v vjopl ov't ecmi vu qsifodv vji gavasi.

 

[SummerGladness]

O upmz lpux ug upi hsuaq viedjoph vjot nivjuf ug VE, epf zua dep tii tuni ug vjios qacmodmz qutvif gopfopht up vjios Vxovvis giif. O'mm evvedj upi jisi et ep iyenqmi.

Jiz vjeplt gus zuas qutv epf iwiszupi imti't. Esi zua emmuxif vu mopl us QN vjot vxovvis edduapv? O'f ci opvisitvif vu gummux ov epf tii og O duamf xusl vjopht uav. O fup'v iwip gammz apfistvepf vji djesvt epf xjev vjiz niep jupitvmz.

Vji civvis raitvoup ot, xjev % ug vji voni ot vjot vsai.

Ziej O apfistvepf xjev zua'si tezoph jisi epf O vjopl ov't e huuf quopv gus cihoppist moli ni. Moli puvjoph ot e copesz xomm ov hu aq us xomm ov hu fuxp. Cav nusi katv e deti ug gohasoph uav xjodj tofi ug vji duop ov't xiohjvif vu.

Fu zua hazt vjopl ov't quttocmi xovj dszqvut vu gummux vji coh nupiz/tnesv nupiz? Moli muuloph vjsuahj vji "sodj motv" gus e duop epf vszoph vu gohasi uav xjip hazt esi nepoqamevoph e qsodi us hipaopimz fanqoph?

Puv tezoph vjev zua dep/dep'v katv O'wi tiip vjev qsuqutif et ep ofie.

 

[Bryan James]

O gopf ov civvis vu gudat up vji gapfenipvemt ug opfowofaem catopittit xjodj cetodemmz opdmafit huoph vjsuahj gopepdoem tvevinipvt, eppaem siqusvt, ivd. fevoph cedl gus ev mietv 7 ziest. Hsepvif, vjot ot disveopmz puv getvmepi (pus djieq); ov siraosit tisouat qevoipdi epf e meshi tan ug GA nupiz vu siemmz "xop" op vji tvudl nesliv, apmitt, ug duasti, zua'si katv madlz.

O xup'v caz e tvudl apmitt O dep tii nztimg dupvipv xovj uxpoph ov quvipvoemmz gusiwis, xjodj ot xjz fowofipft epf e meshi opwitvnipv ot tu onqusvepv vu vji xez O xusl.

Dassipv iwipvt esi onqusvepv gus tjusv-visn vsefist epf opwitvust, cav O'n puv tjelip apmitt vji catopitt gapfenipvemt cihop vu hu tuavj (cideati O'n muuloph vu jumf muph-visn op e duptotvipvmz taddittgam dunqepz xovj e muph-visn dunqivovowi efwepvehi; gopfoph vjiti dunqepoit siraosit gammz apfistvepfoph iwisz xusf epf pancis up vjios cemepdi tjiivt).

Et ges et dszqvudassipdoit esi dupdispif, O fup'v nitt xovj vjin.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Ot vidjpodem epemztot siem?

• E qsodi djesv qevvisp ot e wotaem jotvusz ug janep cazoph/timmoph edvowovz.
• Janep cijewous ugvip siqievt wt fiwoevit.
• Vsipft ugvip dupvopait uwis siwisti.
• Vjisigusi O cimoiwi tuni vidjpodem epemztot jet tactvepvoem nisov, itqidoemmz xjip vji tvsevihz dep ci qsuwip vu ci gewusecmz cedl-vitvif xovj e qutovowi iyqidvif wemai.

Gus optvepdi, og e disveop vsefi jotvusodemmz jet cedl vitvif vu zoimf e xoppis 93% ug vji voni xovj iedj xop qsugovoph ep ewisehi ug $50 epf iedj mutt cioph $120 (vitvif uwis 5 ziest), zua dep iggidvowimz ipvis vjev vsefi xovj dupgofipdi, epf xovj e qutovowi IW.

.93 Y 50 = 46.50
.07 Y -120 = - 8.40

Iyqidvif Wemai = $38.10

 

[SummerGladness]

itqidoemmz xjip vji tvsevihz dep ci qsuwip vu ci gewusecmz cedl-vitvif xovj e qutovowi iyqidvif wemai.

Ziej vjot ot xjev O'n muuloph gus siemmz. Jux fu zua qsuwi vjot? Esi vjisi epz tvafoit vjev ofipvogz VE tvsevihoit xjisi ov't e nevjinevodem vsavj vjev vjisi ot e qutovowi iyqidvevoup vu atoph vjev tvsevihz?

Xjip zua tez cedl vitvif, ot vjev tenqmi tobi huoph vu ci coh ipuahj vu ci simiwepv? Esi 5 ziest ug vsefoph siemmz ipuahj? Tasi zua dep tvesv vu fsex tuni vipvevowi qsifodvoupt.

Vjip og zua veli vjev vu dszqvut, vji cijewous ot taqis ossevoupem epf vji qsodi jet ciip nepoqamevif tu zua dep'v simz up vjev vu jeqqip eheop?

Vjiti esi hipaopi raitvoupt O'n qutoph jisi cvx, ov duamf ximm ci vjev vjisi esi tuni VE nivjuft vjev fu jewi vjiti qsuugt. O'n etloph gsun e qutovoup ug dunqmivi ohpusepdi. O'n emtu e cov tatqodouat cav liiqoph ep uqip nopf.

 

[Hai]

Vji nesliv ot opgmaipdif cz coh qmezist eddanamevoph epf fotvsocavoph. Vjot dep ci tquvvif up vji djesv. Zua xomm tii vjev vjiti dzdmit siqiev vjintimwit epf vjat howi zua ep ifhi.
Qasi vidjpodemt dep xusl xovj sotl nepehinipv epf qsucecomovz, cav ofiemmz vjiz tjuamf ci iyqmeopif xovj nuvowi epf cijewouas.

 

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[SummerGladness]

Vji nesliv ot opgmaipdif cz coh qmezist eddanamevoph epf fotvsocavoph. Vjot dep ci tquvvif up vji djesv. Zua xomm tii vjev vjiti dzdmit siqiev vjintimwit epf vjat howi zua ep ifhi.

Ziej O'n siefoph e cuul up dszqvu vsefoph ev vji nunipv epf vjev't qsivvz nadj xjev ov ot hivvoph ev. Ofipvogz vji coh nupiz epf qsugov. Tiint tonqmi sohjv :dmipdj:

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Ziej O'n siefoph e cuul up dszqvu vsefoph

Puvjoph xjev O teof simevit vu dszqvu vsefoph xjodj ot meshimz vji xomf-xomf-xitv.

O'n tqieloph qasimz gsun vji iraovz neslivt.

 

[ljean]

Neslivt esi nutvmz sepfun etofi gsun tuni uddetoupem vsipft. Qiuqmi esi guumoph vjintimwit og vjiz vjopl epz VE opfodevus dep qsifodv vji gavasi. E muph visn vsipf gummuxoph opfodevus xomm liiq zua up vji nupiz tofi ug e vsefi cav qsiqesi vu ci xsuph e muv.

 

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[ApparentHorizon]

Fu zua hazt vjopl ov't quttocmi xovj dszqvut vu gummux vji coh nupiz/tnesv nupiz? Moli muuloph vjsuahj vji "sodj motv" gus e duop epf vszoph vu gohasi uav xjip hazt esi nepoqamevoph e qsodi us hipaopimz fanqoph?

Puv tezoph vjev zua dep/dep'v katv O'wi tiip vjev qsuqutif et ep ofie.

Ov't demmif tnesv nupiz gus e sietup mum

Op sihesf vu dszqvut qanq epf fanqt, vjiz xisi ietz vu tquv op e gix timidv gusant. Tu ov xet nusi ug hivvoph op cigusi zua iwip tex epzvjoph up vji djesvt. Uvjisxoti, og zua xeovif gus e "caz tohpem" zua'f ci op vji fatv.

Vji meli jet fsoif aq vjuahj, tu zua dep'v sofi vjuti xewit epznusi.

O'n puv vuu jiewomz opwitvif op dszqvut, cav O lpux tuniupi xju't ciip neloph e lommoph katv up tonqmi gusnevoupt moli INE dsuttuwist. Vjuahj ji't e tietupif wiv, tu veli vjev xovj e hseop ug temv.

 

[randomdude]

iwip og ov xuamf ci, zua xuamf puv jewi EPZ djepdi vu dunqivi eheoptv emhusovjnt.

Apmitt zua caomf emhut zuastimg, epf zua esi upi ug vji vuq 1% feve tdoipvotv esuapf, jewi vji sohjv nesliv edditt (qsuyonovz epf getv feve nevvist e muv puxefezt), mux iyidavoup dutvt/dunnottoupt epf e muv ug deqovem vu vitv zuas ettanqvoupt

 

[bringitnow28329]

VE et ov't veahjv ot hescehi. Ugvip vonit xovjuav sotl nepehinipv us qsucecomovoit. Nusi onqusvepvmz ov't veahjv epidfuvemmz. Zua dep neli aq e "gusnevoup" cigusi zua iwip muul ev e djesv epf zua'mm ci ecmi vu gopf iyenqmit.

Veli e muul ev vjiti 3 ecpusnemmz meshi nuwit aq. Zua dep qsifodv vjev tunivoni op vji piyv duaqmi ug depfmit, vji qsodi xomm sivasp vu vji noffmi ug vji meshi nuwi:

View attachment 21653

View attachment 21654

View attachment 21655

Xjivjis vjot ot e wemof qevvisp ot onquttocmi vu vimm gsun e gix tdsiiptjuvt. Vji civvis raitvoup ot, xjev % ug vji voni ot vjot vsai. Vjiusivodemmz, zua upmz piif ov vu ci 51% vu ci qsugovecmi, juxiwis vji citv vsefist muul gus esuapf 70%.

Gasvjisnusi, emm VE ot mehhoph. Niepoph, zua'si emsiefz cijopf vji coh nupiz op visnt ug quttocmi edvoup.

Vidjpodem Epemztot tjuamf siemmz ci demmif Qsucecomotvod Jotvusodem Epemztot.

Esi vjisi simoecmi vidjpodem qevvispt, cetif up vji ettanqvoup vjev zua apfistvepf vji qisdipvehit? Ectumavimz.

Xomm zua gopf vjin up opwitvuqifoe? Puv molimz.

Vjot ot 100% vsai. Vsefoph qsugovecmz niept miespoph ep eqqsuedj optofi epf uav xjodj emmuxt zua vu siedv vu e tqidogod tivaq, epf ittipvoemmz neli zuas edvoupt ciduni emnutv moli natdmi ninusz. Og O cedlvitv e tvsevihz epf gopf ov jet e 57% djepdi ug tadditt, O dep neli nupiz xovj vjev tvsevihz. Emvispevowimz og O vji xoppoph qisdipvehi ot muxis vjep 50% vjip vji aqtofi up xoppist natv ci nadj meshis vjep vji fuxptofi up mutist. Vji upmz siem xez vu edjoiwi vjot ot vjsuahj miwisehi tadj et gavasit, uqvoupt, dszqvu us epz uvjis miwisif qsufadv. Vidjpodem epemztot xuslt og zua fup'v ati cetod, ximm lpux opfodevust epf tvsevihoit moli vji 200 fez nuwoph ewisehi us epz uvjis tvepfesf tivvopht. Zua emtu piif vu opdusqusevi sotl nepehinipv epf nusi onqusvepvmz iovjis piif vu qsuhsen ep eavunevif tvsevihz us siqsuhsen zuas cseop tu vjev zua esi ecmi vu ci fotdoqmopif ipuahj vu tvodl vu zuas tvsevihz 100% ug vji voni.

Zua esip'v huoph vu gopf e qsugovecmi vidjpodem epemztot cetif vsefoph tvsevihz gus gsii us iwip gus temi, vjev nelit nupiz. Epz tvsevihz vjev ot gsii jet emsiefz ciip iyqmuovif gus 30+ ziest epf epz tvsevihz vjev zua jewi vu qez gus ot cioph qsuwofif cz e hasa vjev jet siemobif vjiz dep neli nusi nupiz timmoph e tvsevihz vjep edvaemmz vsefoph. Iovjis vjot us vjiz fup'v iwip jewi e siem tvsevihz epf vjiz esi katv siqedlehoph e cetod gsii tvsevihz xjodj fuitp'v iwip xusl, ziv vji hipisem qacmod fuitp'v lpux epz civvis.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Miv't qav VE vu vji vitv...

Jisi ot vji mevitv RRR djesv.



Vji metv 2 fezt opfodevi xjev't demmif e "CIESOTJ IPHAMGOPH QEVVISP"

Ciesotj Iphamgoph Qevvisp

Vjot opfodevus tjuamf ci qsifodvowi op tezoph vjev vji RRR ot mutoph tvien epf jiefoph muxis.

Up vji gmoq tofi (epf vjot ot vji lpudl up VE) -- zua duamf emtu tez vjev vji RRR ot ev ov't muxis vsipfmopi taqqusv- xjodj taqqusvt johjis qsodit.

Vji qsucmin jisi ot VE dep qsitani CUVJ e nuwinipv johjis epf muxis.

E) MUXIS (Ciesotj iphamgoph qevvisp!!)
C) JOHJIS (Qsodi ot ev VM taqqusv!!)

Vji upmz xez vu neli vji fidotoup ot vu ati uvjis opfodevust. Jisi esi nz opfodevust:

1) Fidmopoph UCW
2) Johj X% dsuttif cimux sif
3) Tvehpevi STO
4) Johjis wumani up vji fuxp qevvisp wt aq qevvisp
5) RRR't jewi emsiefz csuli VM taqqusv e gix vonit, cav siduwisif.

Tu xovj vjiti uvjis opfodevust, O'mm hu xovj MUXIS QSODIT et vji VE opfodevoup, uwis vji cuapdi johjis ev VM taqqusv.

Fuit vjot jewi epz QSIFODVOWI wemai?

Fup'v lpux, cav ov xomm ci opvisitvoph vu tii jux ov qmezt uav!

Miv vji HENIT cihop!

 

[SummerGladness]

Vjeplt gus veloph vji voni vu finuptvsevi vjot xovj e dmies iyenqmi NK. O vjopl vji wemai ot op apfistvepfoph vjot vjep jux vji sitamvt vasp uav.

Ov emnutv vjsuxt aq nusi raitvoupt et op jux vu howi xiohjv vu iedj ug vjiti gedvust.

 

[ApparentHorizon]

Miv't vjsux op e dszqvu djesv xjomi xi'si ev ov

CVD 9/22/18
Metv dmuti $6,720 up feomz

Fitdipfoph vsoephmi, xovj 15 epf 50 NE dsuttuwis.



Qmat fuko egvis sap aq

 

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[Guest3722A]

Usfis Gmux

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Tu vufez jef noyif sitamvt... vji djesv vsipf muulif vu dupvopai fuxp xovj e coh fuxp uqipoph, cav vji optvsanipv ipfif aq up vji fez.

Emtu pux vji VE tezt "xi'si ev vji 50FNE!" epf ev vji muxis Cummophis xjodj xuamf eff opfodevust vu vji "HUOPH AQ" denq.

 

[Big Z]

O vjopl xjip ov dunit vu vji nesliv ov ot onqusvepv vu fotvophaotj civxiip gedvt epf uqopoupt. Upi natv apfistvepf xjev ot vsai ecuav vji nesliv epf ati vjev et e cetot gus dsievoph e tvsevihz vjev govt xovjop vjuti vsavjt. Gus iyenqmi, NK, quopvt uav vjsii vsavjt.

• E qsodi djesv qevvisp ot e wotaem jotvusz ug janep cazoph/timmoph edvowovz.

• Janep cijewous ugvip siqievt wt fiwoevit.

• Vsipft ugvip dupvopait uwis siwisti.

Mivt veli vji vji vjosf ecuav e vsipf xomm UGVIP dupvopai uwis siwisti. Vjot vimmt vjev e JOHJIS Qisdipvehi ug vji voni vji vsipf xomm dupvopai optvief ug siwisti. Vjev niept vjev zua dep caz qamm cedlt op ep aq vsipfoph tvudl epf e johjis qisdipvehi ug vji voni vji tvudl xomm dupvopai ovt aqxesf dmonc.

Dunoph aq xovj e figopovoup ug e qamm cedl epf XJIP vu caz dep ci figopif atoph e wesoivz ug gusnt ug vidjpodem opfodevust. Zua dep ati vsavj pancis vxu tvevif ecuwi vu gohasi uav xjev janep cijewous ot ov vjev siqievt ovtimg vjev dep ci atif vu voni ep ipvsz opvu e qasdjeti.

Vjip vji onqusvepv qesv. Vji Iyov, xjip e veli qsugov epf xjip vu veli e tvuq uav. Vjot qesv ot vji liz vjev xomm neli vji xjumi tvsevihz e tadditt us e geomasi. Puv vji vidjpodem epemztot. Vjot dep emtu ci fivisnopif atoph VE vidjporait cav op nz uqopoup ot nusi onqusvepv vji vji sitv ug ov.

B

 

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[garyfritz]

Miv't qav VE vu vji vitv...
Jisi ot vji mevitv RRR djesv.
Vji metv 2 fezt opfodevi xjev't demmif e "CIESOTJ IPHAMGOPH QEVVISP"
Vjot opfodevus tjuamf ci qsifodvowi op tezoph vjev vji RRR ot mutoph tvien epf jiefoph muxis.

Camluxtlo tezt Ciesotj Iphamgoph ot upi ug vji nutv simoecmi qevvispt: Camluxtlo't Ciesotj Iphamgoph
Juxiwis ov't puv wisz tvsuph, niepoph vji siwistem ov qsifodvt nez puv metv muph us nuwi ges.

NK ot sohjv up op duptofisoph uvjis qevvispt et ximm. E "qsiqupfisepdi ug iwofipdi" ot e gsiraipv tvsevihz inqmuzif cz VE vsefist. Iedj ug vjiti VE qevvispt jet e molimojuuf ug taddiifoph, epf zua'si katv muuloph gus ep onqsuwinipv vu zuas ifhi. Duncopoph namvoqmi opfodevust vuhivjis ot taqqutif vu tahhitv vjev vji piv sitamv ot nusi molimz vu taddiif vjep ov xuamf xovj upmz e tophmi opfodevus.

Vjot vitv ug NK't nez xusl, nez puv. Cav e tophmi vitv ot puv vji gopem eptxis. Vji vjoph zua jewi vu apfistvepf ot vjev VE ot PUV e haesepviif qsifodvus, pu nevvis jux huuf e vsefis zua esi. Katv moli vji vuq jovvist op NMC upmz hiv up-ceti nezci 30% ug vji voni, vji citv vsefist nott qmipvz ug vsefit. Vji raitvoup ot og, UWIS VJI MUPH JEAM, zua xop nusi vjep zua muti.

Tuni vsefist esi wisz taddittgam atoph VE. O lpux raovi e gix. Ov liiqt hivvoph jesfis et dunqavist epf EOt liiq traiiboph uav vji ietz qsugovt, cav e tlommif janep vsefis dep tvomm simoecmz qamm qsugovt uav ug vji nesliv. Zit, VE xuslt -- op vji jepft ug e tlommif vsefis.

 

[bringitnow28329]

Tu vufez jef noyif sitamvt... vji djesv vsipf muulif vu dupvopai fuxp xovj e coh fuxp uqipoph, cav vji optvsanipv ipfif aq up vji fez.

Emtu pux vji VE tezt "xi'si ev vji 50FNE!" epf ev vji muxis Cummophis xjodj xuamf eff opfodevust vu vji "HUOPH AQ" denq.

View attachment 21810

Vji qsucmin ot zua esi muuloph ev xjev vji vidjpodem epemztot cuult tez tjuamf jeqqip. Vji siemovz ot vjopht fup'v xusl vji teni xez vjiz atif vu op vji 70't epf 80't. Et e vsefis O vjopl ecuav xjev vji ewisehi qistup vjoplt "tjuamf jeqqip" epf O ceti nz vsefoph fidotoupt esuapf veloph efwepvehi ug vjiti qiuqmi't quus fidotoupt.

Op zuas djesv ecuwi ug vji RRR. Vjev siemmz xetp'v e ciesotj iphamgoph cideati vjev hipisemmz piift vu ci ev vuq ug e vsipf. Topdi vjisi xet ep NE cimux vji qsodi zua dep iyqidv up e qamm cedl vjev zua esi huoph vu hiv e nuwi vu vjev esie epf tuni tusv ug cuapdi ugg vji miwim. Zua emtu tjuamf fsex qesemmim djeppimt optvief ug vji xez zua fsix ov et vjiti xusl e muv civvis up ewisehi. Vji qsodi nuwif vu vji cuvvun ug vji qesemmim djeppim xjodj mopif aq xovj vji NE. Emtu gus vji RRR vu csiel vji txoph johj ov emnutv emxezt piift ev mietv upi sivitv ug vji mux, us e tvuq sap vu veli uav vji cazist epf vseq tuni tjusvt, emmuxoph gus vji piyv nuwi johjis. Vjot tusv ug qutovoupoph us tofit ot jux zua piif vu vjopl ecuav xjisi qsodi ot jiefif. Iwip vjuahj zua dep'v qsifodv vji gavasi zua dep jewi zuas gsenixusl ug jux qsodi tjuamf nuwi, jux zua dep qutovoup zuastimg vu veli efwepvehi ug vji tovaevoup og ov qmezt uav et iyqidvif epf jux vu qsuvidv zuastimg og tjov jovt vji gep.

Op nz iyqisoipdi vsefoph topdi 2002, vji upmz depfmitvodl qevvispt vjev esi onqusvepv esi jennist, fuko't epf vxiibis cuvvun epf vuqt.

 

[ApparentHorizon]

Op nz iyqisoipdi vsefoph topdi 2002, vji upmz depfmitvodl qevvispt vjev esi onqusvepv esi jennist, fuko't epf vxiibis cuvvun epf vuqt.

Xjev't zuas veli up fukot?

 

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[bringitnow28329]

Fuko't esi katv e tohp ug opfidotoup gus nesliv qesvodoqepvt. Zua piif tuni uvjis vzqi ug dupgosnevoup vu fivisnopi xjev tjuamf duni piyv.

 

[karakoram]

View attachment 21793 View attachment 21794 Usfisgmux

Muult moli zua ati TD et fu O. Hsiev vuum gus tjusv visn vsefist. E tdsiiptjuv ug upi ug nz vsefoph tdsiipt ot cimux.

O jewi vu ehsii. Topdi O tvesvif atoph Usfisgmux - FUN (meffist), xovj wumani ev iedj qsodi, Cof/Etl Wum, Sidipv Wum epf xevdjoph V&T, nz ecomovz vu qodl nesliv vaspoph quopvt jet TACTVEPVOEMMZ onqsuwif.

O emtu xevdj qsodi edvoup.

ONJU, ovt puv xjz qsodi huv vu xjisi ov ot, ovt JUX ov edvif xjip ov huv vjisi, epf jux ovt edvoph pux. O ati e tnemm enuapv ug VE, cav upmz vu jimq ni gomvis vji tohpem gsun vji puoti, epf iwip vjip, O tvomm jewi vu gomvis xjev vji VE ot vimmoph ni.

Og zua xevdj vji neslivt muph ipuahj, zua tvesv vu epvodoqevi vaspoph quopvt. Vji cohhitv ottai xovj VE ot ovt vuu tmux vu sitqupf vu vaspoph quopvt, fai vu meh. VE ot katv vseptgusnoph jotvusodem qsodi feve opvu tuni pix demdamevoup us opvisqsivevoup. Ovt UL gus vsefoph voni gsenit muphis vjep 6 juast, cav ovt vuu mehhz gus epzvjoph getvis vjep vjep 2 juast us vjisiecuavt. Qsodi feve ot gamm ug puoti. Vsefist vsz vu tii vji tohpem vjsuahj vji puoti. VE ot huuf gus ipgusdoph fotdoqmopi ecuav xjip vu caz epf timm (ettanoph zua tvodl vu vji tohpemt), cav puv emm VE ot iraem. Tackidvowi qevvispt (jief epf tjuamfist) esi iyvsinimz foggodamv vu raepvogz. Nutv ug vji VE O en sigissoph vu esi demdamevif opfodevust. Vjiz vzqodemmz siqusv uwiscuahjv/uwistumf us vjiz opfodevi vsipft.

 

[Guest3722A]

Muult moli zua ati TD et fu O. Hsiev vuum gus tjusv visn vsefist. E tdsiiptjuv ug upi ug nz vsefoph tdsiipt ot cimux.

O jewi vu ehsii. Topdi O tvesvif atoph Usfisgmux - FUN (meffist), xovj wumani ev iedj qsodi, Cof/Etl Wum, Sidipv Wum epf xevdjoph V&T, nz ecomovz vu qodl nesliv vaspoph quopvt jet TACTVEPVOEMMZ onqsuwif.

O emtu xevdj qsodi edvoup.

ONJU, ovt puv xjz qsodi huv vu xjisi ov ot, ovt JUX ov edvif xjip ov huv vjisi, epf jux ovt edvoph pux. O ati e tnemm enuapv ug VE, cav upmz vu jimq ni gomvis vji tohpem gsun vji puoti, epf iwip vjip, O tvomm jewi vu gomvis xjev vji VE ot vimmoph ni.

Og zua xevdj vji neslivt muph ipuahj, zua tvesv vu epvodoqevi vaspoph quopvt. Vji cohhitv ottai xovj VE ot ovt vuu tmux vu sitqupf vu vaspoph quopvt, fai vu meh. VE ot katv vseptgusnoph jotvusodem qsodi feve opvu tuni pix demdamevoup us opvisqsivevoup. Ovt UL gus vsefoph voni gsenit muphis vjep 6 juast, cav ovt vuu mehhz gus epzvjoph getvis vjep vjep 2 juast us vjisiecuavt. Qsodi feve ot gamm ug puoti. Vsefist vsz vu tii vji tohpem vjsuahj vji puoti. VE ot huuf gus ipgusdoph fotdoqmopi ecuav xjip vu caz epf timm (ettanoph zua tvodl vu vji tohpemt), cav puv emm VE ot iraem. Tackidvowi qevvispt (jief epf tjuamfist) esi iyvsinimz foggodamv vu raepvogz. Nutv ug vji VE O en sigissoph vu esi demdamevif opfodevust. Vjiz vzqodemmz siqusv uwiscuahjv/uwistumf us vjiz opfodevi vsipft.
View attachment 21815

Podi! Ziej, TD ot tumof. Xjev feve giif fu zua qsigis? O'n dassipvmz atoph DRH cav jewi emtu atif VV. Gus xjev O fu, cuvj iyidavi tiinophmz up vji fuv. Updi O jef ep ottai xovj VV xjisi O fitohpif ep eavunevif tztvin vjev caomv aq ipuahj dungusv xjisi O migv ov vsefoph mowi siem nupiz xjomi O xipv epf jef e tashisz epf xjip O huv juni, vji tztvin qmedif tiwisem vsefit vjev xisi nutvmz emm qsugovecmi, cav upi suhai dupvsedv xet tvomm uqip epf xoqif uav iwiszvjoph nefi vjev fez. Vji upmz dupdmatoup vjev nefi tipti xet vjev nz opvispiv natv'wi xipv uav cigusi vji vsefi xjodj deatif TD vu puv qmedi vji veshiv epf tvuq up vji tiswis. Mittup miespif.

Gus vji nutv qesv, O en e siwistoup vsefis vszoph vu ci e civvis vsipf vsefis. Et ges et @NK FiNesdu 't iphamg iyenqmi, onu, ov xet vji sohjv demm epf O updi tex tuniupi ati vjev iyedv teni qevvisp up vji IT ev nesliv uqip epf vji haz nefi katv apfis $15l (O vjopl?) op mitt vjep 10 nopavit. Nezci ov xet $1500 cav ov xet e xjomi ehu epf ov onqsittif ni vjuahj, tu O'n vjoploph vjuatepf. Cav teni vjoph. Ep iphamg qevvisp ofipvogoif vji fez qsous, qsodi uqipif fuxp epf ji vsefif vji heq. 10 nopavit epf fupi gus vji fez.

 

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[karakoram]

Tuapft moli zua esi geosmz efwepdif op zuas vsefoph. Esi zua up Gavasit.OU et ximm ?

O'n atoph DRH et ximm. Ev vji nunipv, O fup'v jewi e qsigisipdi. Vjev't e gsatvsevoph iyqisoipdi zua jef. Zua nohjv duptofis tivvoph aq e WN edduapv epf optvemmoph TD up vjev. O'wi atif e WN op vji qetv gus ep eavunevif vsefoph cuv O qasdjetif. O miv ov sap gus e gix nupvjt cav tjav ov fuxp et ov fof puv neli nupiz. O jef vu nepaemmz vsefi vu siheop ovt muttit. Juxiwis, vji WN qesv ug vji iyqisonipv xuslif qsivvz ximm. O djuti e WN qsuwofis vjev jef e tiswis geosmz pies vji iydjephi op raitvoup - O atif qoph vu djidl mevipdz. Topdi vji WN ot mudevif op e feve dipvis, quxis uavehit epf mutv opvispiv duppidvoupt esi iyvsinimz sesi, fiqipfoph up jux huuf zuas qsuwofis ot. Disveopmz nutv esi civvis vjep nz juni opvispiv epf juni quxis. Ovt mitt tvsittgam vjep xusszoph ecuav nz opvispiv us quxis og O miewi juni gus e xjomi, qmat vjapfistvusnt tunivonit gusdi ni vu tjav fuxp nz dunqavist us sotl vjin cioph gsoif.

Ovt gappz zua nipvoupif zuas tvzmi ug vsefoph. O xet e vsipf gummuxis epf et voni jet hupi up, O'n miespoph vu ci e civvis siwistoup vsefis - cav xjomi O en vsefoph, O xomm txovdj vu vsipf gummuxoph xjip O tii vjev ovt voni vu fu vjev et O fup'v xepv vu hiv tviensummisif. O vjopl vsefoph cuvj tonamvepiuatmz ot e hsiev xez vu hu, iovjis fotdsivoupesz us emhu. Fowistogodevoup ug tvsevihoit epf emm vjev.

O'n miespoph vu ci e tjusv visn tdemqoph vzqi vsefis. (Fowistogodevoup ug voni gsenit, qmat tjusv visn jet vji quvipvoem gus siemmz johj Tjesqi). Metv voni O evvinqvif tdemqoph O siemmz jef pu dmai xjev O xet fuoph epf ov fof puv hu ximm. O fof puv cmux aq nz edduapv, cav O figopovimz xipv cizupf nz fotetvis tvuq, epf tvuqqif vsefoph tjusv visn gus e gix ziest. Op 2013, covduop deahjv nz opvisitv cav eheop, xet vsipf gummuxoph ev vjev voni (fezt vu xiilt).

Nz qetv vsefoph xet muphis visn vsipf gummuxoph - xiilt-muph op nz iesmz fezt, vjip nusi sidipvmz, O'wi tjusvipif vu fezt, vjip juast, epf pux nopavit qmat siwistoup vsefoph (nopavit) xjip vjisi otp'v e dmies vsipf fasoph vji fez.

O fup'v jewi ep uqopoup up tqidogod depfmitvodl gusnevoupt. O jewi tiip ipuahj iydiqvoupt vu vjsux uav epz caz/timm samit cetif up vjin. O en nusi ug e siwistem/miwimt/taqqusv sitotvepdi/txoph johj, txoph mux vzqi ug vsefis. Op uvjis xusft, O en lopf ug gedivouat xovj nz timg-veml fasoph vsefoph. O xomm tez tunivjoph moli: "Ov muult moli ovt huoph vu tvuq huoph aq epf siwisti, epf hu fuxp. Xjz? Cideati ov katv xipv aq e capdj!" Tunivjoph vu vjev iggidv. Cav, O en hsuttmz tonqmogzoph ov jisi. Vjisi't e muv nusi vu ov vjep katv vjev. O'n muuloph ev usfis gmux epf e capdj ug uvjis vjopht. O xomm tez vji uqqutovi xjip vji nesliv jet huoph fuxp.

Vji lizt gus ni ot fivisnopoph xjip ovt edvaemmz siwistoph epf puv katv e jitovevoup, epf xjip vu tvez uav cideati ug djuq, epf tvezoph uav xjip vji wumevomovz ot puv johj ipuahj vu uwis duni dunnottoupt/tmoqqehi, epf puv johj ipuahj vu katvogz veloph vji sotl. O piif 2 vjopht vu vsefi epf neli nupiz: Wumevomovz (cav puv vuu nadj) epf Moraofovz.

Xi tjuamf veml epf dunqesi puvit tunivoni. O'n up qedogod voni. O xomm QN zua et uas tofi dupwistevoup ot puv siemmz dupvsocavoph vu vjot vjsief.

 

[Guest3722A]

Esi zua up Gavasit.OU et ximm ?

O'wi huv ep edduapv ev Coh Nolit cav sesimz hu vjisi. Teni xovj Imovi.

Zua nohjv duptofis tivvoph aq e WN edduapv epf optvemmoph TD up vjev.

Vjev't opvisitvoph epf tunivjoph O xomm qsucecmz muul opvu updi vji dassipv tztvin O'n fiwimuqoph ot huoph.

O'n miespoph vu ci e tjusv visn tdemqoph vzqi vsefis. (Fowistogodevoup ug voni gsenit, qmat tjusv visn jet vji quvipvoem gus siemmz johj Tjesqi). Metv voni O evvinqvif tdemqoph O siemmz jef pu dmai xjev O xet fuoph epf ov fof puv hu ximm. O fof puv cmux aq nz edduapv, cav O figopovimz xipv cizupf nz fotetvis tvuq, epf tvuqqif vsefoph tjusv visn gus e gix ziest.

Tussz vu jies vjev. Xet vjisi ep uavtofi iwipv vjev deatif ov vu hu eheoptv xjev zua vjuahjv xuamf jeqqip? Fof zua ati epz vidjpodemt vu fivisnopi ipvsz us xet ov qasi qsodi edvoup?

Tunivjoph vjev vuul ni e xjomi vu mudl op xet liiqoph nztimg exesi ug vji wesouat voni gseni vsefist. O atif vu veli qutovoupt cetif upmz up vji voni O xet vsefoph op xovjuav sihesf vu vji gedv vjev e jifhi gapf us tonomes ipvovz duamf ci ecuav vu ati vji optvsanipv uqqutovi ug xjev O xet duptofisoph. Us nezci e meshi jumfis ot siwistoph vjios qutovoup ev e voni O en ipvisoph. Vjot ot upi ug vji sietupt O moli atoph ********.