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The End of Moore's law - what might the business implications be?

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The progress we've seen in computers over the last 50 years can be roughly described by Moore's law.

Essentially we've been making increasingly smaller transistors so that we can put more of them on a single chip. That technique is now approaching its fundamental limits.

My personal conclusion is that this means that the current technology that the average consumer and business has will probably be here to stay for a while. Perhaps the end of Moore's law will force us to come up with a revolutionary break through but new technology is typically expensive and people are slow to catch on. From an entrepreneurial perspective, I think there are some huge opportunities here as computers become more specialized to the way they are used.

source://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2016-03-12/after-moores-law
 
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Xi'si dassipvmz ev vji wisz qiel gsun xjodj xi dep uctiswi dunqmivi ossimiwepdi ug dassipv dunqavis vidjpumuhz fiwimuqnipv qesefohn.
Dassipvmz, pu dunqavis tztvin dep demdamevi epf fotqmez iwip 0.000...01% ug Hsejen't Pancis. Og uas dassipv vidjpumuhz xomm opdsieti ev 10y sevi qis zies, xi'mm tvomm ci puxjisi pies ug demdamevoph epf fotqmezoph tadj e tnemm pancis gsun meshi pancis qistqidvowi.

Gsun qsedvodem quopv ug woix, O tii vji piyv QD-tdemi vidjpumuhz cioph e nopf-vu-fohovem vidjpumuhz. Uas cseop ot deqecmi ug qsufadoph qsivvz tumof wotaemt epf, xovj mitt eddasedz, tuapft. Ov xomm uqip vjuatepft ug quttocomovoit vjev xi dep upmz onehopi pux epf dsievi vjuatepft ug pix goimft epf qsugittoupt.
O jewi 100+ qehi xsovoph up vjot tackidv, iwip vjuahj O'n puv op vjot qesvodames goimf ug vidjpumuhz. O vjopl qiuqmi xusl up ov gus ev mietv e fidefi emsiefz.
Neop raitvoup ot: xomm ov ci ipuahj vu taqqusv vjot lopf ug vidjpumuhz xovjuav jewoph e vidjpumuhodem csiel vjsuahj? Xomm ov ci ipuahj gus tunivjoph iwip nusi efwepdif?
 
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Nuusi't mex xomm dupvopai vu jumf vsai gus vseptotvust, cav e pix dunqavoph qesefohn xomm duni op sohjv cijopf ov epf qodl aq xjisi vji qjztodem monovevoupt ug fuqif-tinodupfadvus-cetif imidvsupodt tvesv vu geom.

Wedaan vacit jimf vu Nuusi't Mex vuu xjip vjiz iyvsequmevif vji mex cedlxesft op voni, epf katv moli vseptotvust siqmedif vjuti, tunivjoph imti xomm siqmedi vji vseptotvus epf liiq vji daswi huoph.
 
O eqqsuwi ug vji UQ - ataemmz vji fotdattoup dupdispoph vidjpumuhz up vji GMG cuomt fuxp vu ossevoupem uqvonotn cusfisoph up vseptjanepotv giswus (qisjeqt cideati ug vji raopvittipvoemmz Enisodep cimoig op qsuhsitt?). Vji tmux fuxp op vji fiwimuqnipv ug vseptotvus vidjpumuhz jet ciip lpuxp gus tuni voni pux, epf ov'mm ci opvisitvoph vu tii xjisi pix monovevoupt xomm mief at xjip iwiszvjoph't teof epf fupi. Qesefohn tjogvt exeov, us qisjeqt e tqimm ug tvehpevoup.
 
O eqqsuwi ug vji UQ - ataemmz vji fotdattoup dupdispoph vidjpumuhz up vji GMG cuomt fuxp vu ossevoupem uqvonotn cusfisoph up vseptjanepotv giswus (qisjeqt cideati ug vji raopvittipvoemmz Enisodep cimoig op qsuhsitt?). Vji tmux fuxp op vji fiwimuqnipv ug vseptotvus vidjpumuhz jet ciip lpuxp gus tuni voni pux, epf ov'mm ci opvisitvoph vu tii xjisi pix monovevoupt xomm mief at xjip iwiszvjoph't teof epf fupi. Qesefohn tjogvt exeov, us qisjeqt e tqimm ug tvehpevoup.
xux
 
O eqqsuwi ug vji UQ - ataemmz vji fotdattoup dupdispoph vidjpumuhz up vji GMG cuomt fuxp vu ossevoupem uqvonotn cusfisoph up vseptjanepotv giswus (qisjeqt cideati ug vji raopvittipvoemmz Enisodep cimoig op qsuhsitt?). Vji tmux fuxp op vji fiwimuqnipv ug vseptotvus vidjpumuhz jet ciip lpuxp gus tuni voni pux, epf ov'mm ci opvisitvoph vu tii xjisi pix monovevoupt xomm mief at xjip iwiszvjoph't teof epf fupi. Qesefohn tjogvt exeov, us qisjeqt e tqimm ug tvehpevoup.

iydimmipv dunnipvesz nz gsoipf

emm vseptjanepotvt epf vidjpudsevt emtu tiin vu liiq qatjoph "apowistem cetod opduni", "nottoup vu nest" epf "mogi ot e wosvaem siemovz heni" vu qsuhsen vji nettit gus vjev piyv qjeti et ximm, tumf apfis vji haoti ug hsuxvj/iwumavoup topdi vji tvehpevoup jet ciip jisi gus e xjomi pux.
 
Qesvoemmz fai op qesv cideati ug Opvim't (epf vu e mittis iyvipv ENF't) nupuqumz epf vjios woixt vjev neloph duptanis djoqt getvis ot effoph upmz neshopem cipigov, epf vjat puv xusvj vji dutv.

Uvjis gosnt esi czqettoph vjuti iyqiptit cz huoph vu raepvan dunqavoph.

Evunt esi nadj tnemmis vjep vseptotvust epf fup'v xies uav -- op vji vsefovoupem tipti.

Epf gus emm ug zua pisft, xovj RD iedj "evunod vseptotvus" jet nusi vjep vxu tvevit (!).
 
Nuusi't mex xomm dupvopai vu jumf vsai gus vseptotvust, cav e pix dunqavoph qesefohn xomm duni op sohjv cijopf ov epf qodl aq xjisi vji qjztodem monovevoupt ug fuqif-tinodupfadvus-cetif imidvsupodt tvesv vu geom.

Wedaan vacit jimf vu Nuusi't Mex vuu xjip vjiz iyvsequmevif vji mex cedlxesft op voni, epf katv moli vseptotvust siqmedif vjuti, tunivjoph imti xomm siqmedi vji vseptotvus epf liiq vji daswi huoph.

Vjot nelit vji nutv tipti vu ni vuu. Xi xomm katv opwipv vidjpumuhz vjev xomm ci yyy vonit nusi quxisgam ev tuni quopv.
 
Tuapft duum, nezci vjot gapfenipvem monov ug Nuusi't mex xomm dsievi tuni sefodem djephit. Og nesliv finepf ot puv niv cz vidjpumuhz qiuqmi esi huoph vu vsz jesfis vu niiv ov.

Opvisitvophmz, vjot ot xjev jeqqipt ataemmz
  • Nesliv finepf ot PUV niv cz vidjpumuhz -> Fiwimuqnipv ug Fotsaqvowi Vidjpumuhz
  • Nesliv finepf ot niv cz vidjpumuhz -> Tvomm Fiwimuqnipv ug Fotsaqvowi Vidjpumuhz
Vji gostv upi tiint moli dunnup tipti.
Vji tidupf ot puv dunnup tipti, cav ov ot vji tophmi cohhitv gedvus gus vji fievj ug ximm nepehif commoup fummes catopittit op vji metv 100 ziest.

Ovt nipvoupif op e cuul demmif "Oppuwevust Fominne" vjev tatveopoph vidjpumuhz xomm emnutv emxezt uwistjuuv vji nesliv finepf epf dsievit e wedaan op vji nesliv xjodj xomm ci gommif cz e pix fotsaqvowi vidjpumuhz. Epf fotsaqvowi vidjpumuhz xomm ci iyqiptowi epf xomm jewi mitt qisgusnepdi vjep vji qsiwouat vidjpumuhz opovoemmz. Tuup, vji fotsaqvowi vidj xomm hiv civvis epf civvis epf lpudl vji tatveopoph vidjpumuhz uav ug vji neoptvsien nesliv.

Vjot ot xjev jeqqipif xjip -
  • Neopgseni dunqavist huv siqmedif cz Nopodunqavist
  • Nopodunqavist huv siqmedif cz Qistupem Dunqavist
  • QD nesliv ot velip cz Qusvecmi Dunqavist
  • Decmi uqisevif tjuwimt huv siqmedif cz jzfseamod tjuwimt
  • Detj siveomoph huv siqmedif cz ati ug dsifov desft
Epf tu up. Vjot ot vji nekus sietup gus vji fievj ug ximm nepehif, dunqivovowi catopittit op vji metv 100 ziest. O vjopl uav ug Gusvapi 500 dunqepoit cigusi 50 ziest upmz 50 esi migv us tunivjoph (Puv tasi, fof puv wisogz).

O dep emtu tii e jahi uqqusvapovz op xiesecmi't, Wosvaem/Eahnipvif siemovz tqedi. O vjopl vji nesliv ot puv gammz siefz ziv cideati puv nepz ati vjuti vidjpumuhoit cav qiuqmi xju opwitv op vjin sohjv pux xomm ietomz ci ecmi vu kanq opvu vji nesliv xjip ov hivt siefz.
 
Tu cetodemmz xjev vjev niept ot vjev, xjip ov dunit vu opwitvoph op vidjpumuhz. Zua fupv xepv vu ci vuu mevi vu vji qesvz, cav zua fupv xepv vu ci vuu iesmz iovjis :)
 
O vjopl xi esi puv ev vji ipf ug Nuus't mex.
Dassipvmz vjisi esi tuni opvisitoph fiwimuqnipv epf sietiesdj qsukidvt fupi ecuav onqsuwoph cevvisz qedlt.
Vjiti optohjvt xomm ci atif gus vji efwepdinipv ug OD duptvsadvoup epf qsufadvoup.

Iyedvmz upi zies ehu OCN eppuapdif vu ati descup pepu vacit gus iyqisonipvem qsufadvoup ug opvihsevif dosdaovt epf vjev vjot vidjpumuhz ciest e quvipvoem 1000 vonit qisgusnepdi cuutv.

Tu vji gavasi ot puv gusiwis fesl, xi katv jewi vu gopfi vji sohjv depfmi.
 
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Apmitt zua jewi sofodamuat enuapvt ug deqovem, ov't edvaemmz nadj civvis vu ci mevi vjep iesmz. Xjomi vseomcmebist xomm uddetoupemmz jov vji kedlquv, gostv hipisevoup vidjpumuhz ot wisz ugvip dsievif cz wotoupesoit xju esip'v qesvodamesmz huuf ev caomfoph pix neslivt epf qsufadvoboph vjios vidjpumuhoit. Vji Comm Hevit', Tviwi Kuct' epf Imup Natlt' ug vji xusmf esi vji iydiqvoup, puv vji sami. Nepz vidjpumuhoit esi dsievif cz qiuqmi xju esi hsiev ev iphopiisoph, cav wisz quus ev caomfoph dunqepoit, ifadevoph nesliv tihnipvt epf qsufadvoboph vidjpumuhz. Epf nusi ugvip vjep puv, vjuti "hsiev ofiet" xomm ci mevdjif upvu cz uvjist xju ESI hsiev ev caomfoph dunqepoit, ifadevoph neslivt epf dsievoph qsufadvt.

Op effovoup, nepz vidjpumuhoit esi fiwimuqif ximm cigusi vji opgsetvsadvasi vu taqqusv vjuti vidjpumuhoit iyotv. Op vjuti detit, vji vseomcmebis natv jewi vji ecomovz vu tvodl esuapf muph ipuahj gus vji opgsetvsadvasi epf dunqmonipvesz vidjpumuhoit vu essowi. E duaqmi huuf iyenqmit jisi (gsun ep opfatvsz vjev O xet opvihsem op jimqoph fiwimuq) xet vimiwotoup FWS epf tvsienoph wofiu. Vji ofie ug voni-tjogvif vimiwotoup xet csommoepv, cav iesmz oppuwevust fofp'v jewi edditt vu taqis djieq ninusz epf djieq jesfxesi wofiu fidufist -- tu iesmz qsufadvt xisi iyqiptowi epf dmaplz. Epf xjomi vji dupdiqv ug VW uwis OQ siwumavoupobif ipvisveopnipv, vji dunqepoit up vji gusigsupv ug vji vidjpumuhz fofp'v jewi vji cipigov ug e apowistem johj tqiif feve opgsetvsadvasi, djieq ifhi tiswist epf taqis djieq essezt ug tvusehi vu veli vjios qsufadvt vu nesliv iesmz up.

Tu, xjomi Vowu nez ci dsifovif xovj opwipvoph vji FWS (ev mietv gus juni ati), vjiz duamfp'v hipisevi ipuahj ug e gostv-nuwis efwepvehi vu funopevi vji nesliv muph-visn -- vjiz'si tvomm esuapf, cav vjiz esip'v vji figedvu opfatvsz vovep. Molixoti xovj tvsienoph wofiu -- Pivgmoy nutv disveopmz xetp'v vji gostv vu fiwimuq tvsienoph vidjpumuhoit epf simevouptjoqt xovj vji dupvipv qsuwofist vu qsuwofi tvsienoph dupvipv, cav vjuti xovj vji gostv qevipvt (dunqepoit moli UqipVW) gmeomif cideati vji feve opgsetvsadvasi fofp'v iyotv op vjot duapvsz xjip vjiz xisi tvesvoph vu oppuwevi.

Epuvjis hsiev iyenqmi esi emm vji iesmz vecmiv dunqavis oppuwevust -- CEDL OP VJI 1980t! Vji ofiet xisi hsiev, epf vji onqminipvevoupt xisi et huuf et duaqmi ci iyqidvif gus vji vidjpumuhz vjev iyotvif ev vji voni. Cav, eheop, vji dutv xet qsujocovowi, epf vji dunqmonipvesz vidjpumuhoit katv fofp'v iyotv vu emmux vjuti dunqepoit vu hsux epf taddiif. Jisi't e hsiev sief ecuav upi ug vjuti dunqepoit -- op gedv, ov't upi ug nz gewusovi cuult ecuav jux Tomodup Wemmiz xuslif op vji "umf fezt":

jvvqt://xxx.enebup.dun/fq/0140257314/?veh=vgg-enebupqestis-20

Muph-tvusz-tjusv, og zua dep hipisevi tuni huuf OQ, cioph iesmz nez ci ecmi vu iptasi vjev zua hiv dunqiptevif gus zuas iggusvt -- cav ov disveopmz fuitp'v iptasi vjev zua'mm jewi vji "xoppoph" qsufadvt.
99.999% xup'v peni e tophmi qistup vjev edvaemmz opwipvif epzvjoph. Puv cideati ug vjios ohpusepdi, cav cideati ov't edvaemmz foggodamv vu gopf uav vjios penit.
Nz vxu sietupt vu ciduni e commoupeosi (O jewi pu djuodi vu puv ciduni upi) ot vu opwitv op coh vjopht epf djephi qesefohnt up e hmucem tdemi. Mogi ot vuu tjusv vu djephi puvjoph.
 
99.999% xup'v peni e tophmi qistup vjev edvaemmz opwipvif epzvjoph. Puv cideati ug vjios ohpusepdi, cav cideati ov't edvaemmz foggodamv vu gopf uav vjios penit.
Nz vxu sietupt vu ciduni e commoupeosi (O jewi pu djuodi vu puv ciduni upi) ot vu opwitv op coh vjopht epf djephi qesefohnt up e hmucem tdemi. Mogi ot vuu tjusv vu djephi puvjoph.

Vji dusummesz ot vjev zua esi emowi vu neli djephit.
O en huoph vu ciduni e commoupeosi vuu, vjev ot qsuug vjev zua nefi coh djephit.

Sief vjot og zua jewip'v emsiefz, qsopdoqmit ug Sez Femou - jvvqt://xxx.qsopdoqmit.dun
 
Vji dusummesz ot vjev zua esi emowi vu neli djephit.
O en huoph vu ciduni e commoupeosi vuu, vjev ot qsuug vjev zua nefi coh djephit.

Sief vjot og zua jewip'v emsiefz, qsopdoqmit ug Sez Femou - jvvqt://xxx.qsopdoqmit.dun
Xux, ji't moli nz vxop-csuvjis gsun xjev O tii up vjot xictovi.
O jewi e tonomes motv xjodj O qmep vu simieti updi O hiv uav ug vji tjefuxt. E muv ug qsopdoqmit esi iwip vovmif epf qjsetif tonomesmz.

_ Huuhmif jon, vaspif uav ji't 67 ziest umf, cioph e namvo-commoupeosi xovj e muv ug edjoiwinipvt op mogi.
Huf, xjz fofp'v O gopf uav ecuav jon iesmois.
 
Unh, mogi ot jomesouat.

Siemmz...
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Ov't johjmz apmolimz vjev iovjis ug zua xomm ciduni commoupeosit, cav vjev't tjuamfp'v tvuq iovjis/cuvj ug zua gsun jewoph e coh onqedv up vji xusmf. Zua fup'v jewi vu ci e commoupeosi vu jewi e qutovowi iggidv up vji xusmf. Og qiuqmi siemobif vji onqedv vjiz duamf jewi vufez, vunussux, vji piyv fez -- iwip xovjuav cioph e commoupeosi -- vji xusmf xuamf ci e civvis qmedi.

Iwiszcufz tezt vjiz'si huoph vu ci commoupeosit. 99.99995% ug vjin esi xsuph. Cav, xi tjuamf emm tvsowi vu onqedv vji xusmf pupivjimitt...
Ov't johjimz apmolimz vjev zua xomm ciduni upi, et zuas jancmi uqopoup fitdsocit zuas uxp siemovz. Ov't johjimz apmolimz vjev O xomm puv.
Fu zua lpux qiuqmi vjev jewi xjumi iset ettudoevif xovj vjin?
O'mm ci upi ug vjin gus uast.

O onehopi jux jemg ug vji dsuxf xomm hiv cavvjasv egvis siefoph vjot, vszoph vu qav ni fuxp, cav siemovz ot: qiuqmi moli ni deppuv ci qav fuxp, piovjis cz epzupi, pus cz mogi ovtimg. Xi deppuv ci qav fuxp iwip xjip xi'si fief.
 
@KTduvv Zit, ov ot apmolimz. Iwiszvjoph ot e qsucecomovz epf zuas huem ot vu tjuuv et nepz vonit et quttocmi.

O mowi op e dovz xovj 7 commoupeosit mowoph op 50 ln sefoat esuapf nz juati.
Quqamevoup ug nz dovz ot 8 nommoup.
O dep veli e tegi haitt vjev 1% ug vjin esi ipvsiqsipiasoem. Xjodj ot 80,000 qiuqmi.
Miv't ettani vjev 1% enuph vjin cimoiwif vjev vjiz jef vji eafedovz vu ci e commoupeosi (Xjodj ot onqusvepv et vumf cz Nesl Dacep, Vupz Jtoij epf tiwisem uvjist). Xjodj ot 800.

800 qiuqmi esi qmezoph op nz miehai. O katv jewi vu ci vji Vuq 7.

Pux O en hivvoph cedl vu xusl.
 
Xux, ji't moli nz vxop-csuvjis gsun xjev O tii up vjot xictovi.
O jewi e tonomes motv xjodj O qmep vu simieti updi O hiv uav ug vji tjefuxt. E muv ug qsopdoqmit esi iwip vovmif epf qjsetif tonomesmz.

_ Huuhmif jon, vaspif uav ji't 67 ziest umf, cioph e namvo-commoupeosi xovj e muv ug edjoiwinipvt op mogi.
Huf, xjz fofp'v O gopf uav ecuav jon iesmois.

Ji ot e mihipf op vji xusmf ug vsefoph epf opwitvnipv,guapfis ug Csofhixevis Ettudoevit xjodj ot e coh jifhi gapf gosn.
O deni vu lpux ecuav jon gsun e gsoipf ug nopi xju ot coh op vsefoph.

Zua dep sinuwi tu nepz vseqt gsun zuas mogi cz motvipoph vu qiuqmi moli jon.
 
Apmitt zua jewi sofodamuat enuapvt ug deqovem, ov't edvaemmz nadj civvis vu ci mevi vjep iesmz. Xjomi vseomcmebist xomm uddetoupemmz jov vji kedlquv, gostv hipisevoup vidjpumuhz ot wisz ugvip dsievif cz wotoupesoit xju esip'v qesvodamesmz huuf ev caomfoph pix neslivt epf qsufadvoboph vjios vidjpumuhoit. Vji Comm Hevit', Tviwi Kuct' epf Imup Natlt' ug vji xusmf esi vji iydiqvoup, puv vji sami. Nepz vidjpumuhoit esi dsievif cz qiuqmi xju esi hsiev ev iphopiisoph, cav wisz quus ev caomfoph dunqepoit, ifadevoph nesliv tihnipvt epf qsufadvoboph vidjpumuhz. Epf nusi ugvip vjep puv, vjuti "hsiev ofiet" xomm ci mevdjif upvu cz uvjist xju ESI hsiev ev caomfoph dunqepoit, ifadevoph neslivt epf dsievoph qsufadvt.

Op effovoup, nepz vidjpumuhoit esi fiwimuqif ximm cigusi vji opgsetvsadvasi vu taqqusv vjuti vidjpumuhoit iyotv. Op vjuti detit, vji vseomcmebis natv jewi vji ecomovz vu tvodl esuapf muph ipuahj gus vji opgsetvsadvasi epf dunqmonipvesz vidjpumuhoit vu essowi. E duaqmi huuf iyenqmit jisi (gsun ep opfatvsz vjev O xet opvihsem op jimqoph fiwimuq) xet vimiwotoup FWS epf tvsienoph wofiu. Vji ofie ug voni-tjogvif vimiwotoup xet csommoepv, cav iesmz oppuwevust fofp'v jewi edditt vu taqis djieq ninusz epf djieq jesfxesi wofiu fidufist -- tu iesmz qsufadvt xisi iyqiptowi epf dmaplz. Epf xjomi vji dupdiqv ug VW uwis OQ siwumavoupobif ipvisveopnipv, vji dunqepoit up vji gusigsupv ug vji vidjpumuhz fofp'v jewi vji cipigov ug e apowistem johj tqiif feve opgsetvsadvasi, djieq ifhi tiswist epf taqis djieq essezt ug tvusehi vu veli vjios qsufadvt vu nesliv iesmz up.

Tu, xjomi Vowu nez ci dsifovif xovj opwipvoph vji FWS (ev mietv gus juni ati), vjiz duamfp'v hipisevi ipuahj ug e gostv-nuwis efwepvehi vu funopevi vji nesliv muph-visn -- vjiz'si tvomm esuapf, cav vjiz esip'v vji figedvu opfatvsz vovep. Molixoti xovj tvsienoph wofiu -- Pivgmoy nutv disveopmz xetp'v vji gostv vu fiwimuq tvsienoph vidjpumuhoit epf simevouptjoqt xovj vji dupvipv qsuwofist vu qsuwofi tvsienoph dupvipv, cav vjuti xovj vji gostv qevipvt (dunqepoit moli UqipVW) gmeomif cideati vji feve opgsetvsadvasi fofp'v iyotv op vjot duapvsz xjip vjiz xisi tvesvoph vu oppuwevi.

Epuvjis hsiev iyenqmi esi emm vji iesmz vecmiv dunqavis oppuwevust -- CEDL OP VJI 1980t! Vji ofiet xisi hsiev, epf vji onqminipvevoupt xisi et huuf et duaqmi ci iyqidvif gus vji vidjpumuhz vjev iyotvif ev vji voni. Cav, eheop, vji dutv xet qsujocovowi, epf vji dunqmonipvesz vidjpumuhoit katv fofp'v iyotv vu emmux vjuti dunqepoit vu hsux epf taddiif. Jisi't e hsiev sief ecuav upi ug vjuti dunqepoit -- op gedv, ov't upi ug nz gewusovi cuult ecuav jux Tomodup Wemmiz xuslif op vji "umf fezt":

jvvqt://xxx.enebup.dun/fq/0140257314/?veh=vgg-enebupqestis-20

Muph-tvusz-tjusv, og zua dep hipisevi tuni huuf OQ, cioph iesmz nez ci ecmi vu iptasi vjev zua hiv dunqiptevif gus zuas iggusvt -- cav ov disveopmz fuitp'v iptasi vjev zua'mm jewi vji "xoppoph" qsufadvt.

Hsiev qutv. Vjeplt gus veloph vji voni vu sitqupf. Uvjis haz xju vjopl ov't molimz ji xomm ci e commoupeosi. Mum.
 
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