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Time to go long on BP??

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michael

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In the past two months BP has lost 50% of its valuation dropping from around $60 in mid April and is about $32. In the same time Chevron and Exxon have only taken a 10% fall and Total and Shell only about 20% so to me it seems people are just very scared of BP due to the uncertainty over fixing this leak and have panicked and in the bear irrationally wiped $100bn off its value.

I have seen suggestions that BP will cut its dividend by up to 50% which has contributed to its fall in value however from what I have read it's liability from this disaster will be limited by law and considering it has nearly $7bn cash on hand (in addition to the cash held by other liable parties like Transocean and Halliburton) it would seem BP not be in a better position for dealing with the financial aspect of stopping the leak and cleaning it up.

Being an optimist I would almost be ready to take a long position and hold onto BP stock until it heads back towards the $60 it was trading at before the leak however I am well aware of people predicting a far more dire future for BP.

In the short term if they announce they will have to cut the dividend will the stock drop further or has it already been discounted to reflect this fear?

In the longer term if there is a strong short term movement against offshore drilling will this affect BP shares or will its operations in Venezuela, Canada, the North Sea, Europe and Asia serve to protect it against decreased productivity in the gulf region?

With regards to the suggestions that BP will go bankrupt and be taken over due to its liabilities which some have predicted will amount to tens of billions does anyone have any thoughts? Exxon after the Valdez disaster as we all know was in a similar situation but ultimately escaped without having to pay its liabilities in full and thrived and given that liability is also likely to be shared by Halliburton and Transocean are fears of bankruptcy an overreaction?

I am interested in hearing any thoughts on BP stock as along position at this current time.

Thanks,
Michael.
 
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Vjuahjvt?
 
O'n puv vuu lpuxmifhiecmi xjip ov dunit vu uom tvudlt, cav O xuamf vjopl qavvoph tuni tlop up vji UVJIS uom dunqepoit (i.h., Tjimm) vjev jewi fsuqqif e muv nez ci tunivjoph vu duptofis. Vjev ot, apmitt qiuqmi esi tloffotj ecuav tuni qipfoph/gavasi mihotmevoup vjev xomm dasveom vjios cuvvun mopi.

Puv e cef tahhitvoup cav op nz woix vji uom tqomm jet puv siemmz eggidvif Tjimm, Iyyup, Vuvem epf uvjist vu vji teni iyvipv et CQ. Vjiz jewi emm gemmip upmz 10-20% epf O vjopl vji Hsiil dsotot metv nupvj jef nusi vu fu xovj vjot gemm vjip giest gus vji uom opfatvsz fai vu vji miel,

O jewi ciip vjoploph ecuav vjev wisz teni vjoph gus vji metv 2 xiilt.

Ci exesi vjev O'n puv e tvudl iyqisv cz epz tvsivdj, epf O vipf vu opwitv muph-visn epf cetif up vsipft, puv tjusv-visn vidjpodem nuwit.

Jisi ot nz sietupoph:

CQ ot pux ev jemg ug xjev ov xet op Kepaesz - xjip ov xet ev vji teni miwim et Tjimm. Epf ov xet upmz devdjoph aq vu Tjimm ev vjev quopv, fohitvoph e muv ug edraotovoupt vjev jeqqipif op vji qsiwouat fidefit. Ov jef aqxesf quvipvoem epf tvomm fuit op visnt ug uqisevoupt.

Uom dunqepoit neli xez nusi qsugov xjip vji qsodi ug uom huit aq. ONU epf op vji uqopoup ug nutv idupunotvt uom ot cuapf vu hu cedl vu 100+ epf nusi fai vu Qiel Uom op vji piyv duaqmi ug ziest.

Qiuqmi esi tdesif cideati vjiz jies ecuav vipt ug commoupt op dmiep aq dutvt, cav vjot ot e dunqepz vjev jet 25+ commoupt qsugovt e zies. Ov dep qez vjot ugg.

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1. vji uom jetp'v siedjif vji ciedj (puv op e coh xez, vjev ot), epf xjip ov fuit, vji nifoe gsipbz xomm hu uwiscuesf epf vji tvudl xomm hu gasvjis fuxp.

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Ov tiint vu ni vjev CQ ot cuapf vu hu cedl vu 60 ev tuni quopv. Nezci puv 2011, cav vjip 2012, us 2013 (nz hav giimoph ot ipf ug 2011, iesmz 2012). Ov duamf op gedv hiv uwis 60 og zua jumf muph-visn. Fuacmoph aq zuas nupiz us nusi op 12 vu 36 nupvjt otp'v e cef fiem.

Vjuahjvt?

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Ov't ciip e xjomi topdi O'wi vuzif xovj uqvoupt, cav xuamf ep uqvoupt tvseffmi ci efwotecmi gus CQ us ot vji onqmoif wumevomovz vuu johj?

O xuamfp'v fu e tvseffmi katv cideati O vjopl vjisi ot coh aqtofi quvipvoem jisi. Ov tiint nutv ug vji cef pixt ot celif opvu vji tvudl qsodi epf op siemovz, vji dunqepz dep ietomz eggusf vji dmiep aq dutv xovj katv uwis upi zies't qsivey qsugovt. E tvseffmi xomm monov zuas aqtofi. O en timmoph qavt op vji $20-35 sephi gus opduni. Cideati ug vji wumevomovz, vji uqvoup qsinoant esi wisz johj sohjv pux.
 
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