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WeWork Sunk Cost Fallacy

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MTEE1985

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WeWork has been discussed on the forum a couple times, notably HERE where the discussion is around the concept and if people like it, and HERE where discussing if a lack of professionalism may have been the straw that broke the camels back.

For those not following along, there has been a lot going on lately. The tl;dr is that the company was scheduled to IPO this month, at an estimated $47b valuation, making it one of the most valuable startups of the decade.

Further due diligence showed increasing losses every quarter and year. As revenue increased, losses increased. It was a good test of the markets appetite for another high growth-high loss IPO. The company wanted to be valued as a tech company vs a real estate company. Ultimately, the much hyped IPO was delayed, then shelved indefinitely.

Now, SoftBank is expected to announce a package to take control of the company it has already invested billions into, at a valuation that is 20% of what it was a month ago.

Now, we must give credit where credit is due. Adam Neumann, the founder and former CEO saw a need and came up with a valuable solution. He is receiving an exit package worth up to $1.7b for his role.

Also, SoftBank’s team are no dummies, you don’t develop two $100b investment funds by being lucky or by buying Apple at the right time.

With the new deal, SoftBank will have a company, valued at $8b that they have already and/or committed to investing $15b into.

I would love to hear some takes on a path to profitability for WeWork. Is this a massive example of sunk cost fallacy for SoftBank? Or did they just acquire a $45b company for $15b?
 
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O xusl op vji dunnisdoem siem itvevi opfatvsz, epf XiXusl jet ciip e juv vuqod enuph opfatvsz wivt gus e MUPH voni. Nutv SI qiuqmi O tquli vu piwis apfistvuuf vji jzqi vji dunqepz hipisevif us jux ov xet cioph wemaevif op vji xez vjev ov xet. Siem itvevi qiuqmi xisi vemloph ecuav PUO epf deq sevit, xjomi XiXusl xet vemloph ecuav Nincistjoq Hsuxvj epf Casp Sevit.

Op vji ipf, XiXusl xet e siem itvevi dunqepz netraisefoph et e vidj dunqepz. Tomodup Wemmiz jet huvvip opvu vjot jahi gsipbz xjisi hsuxvj vsoanqjif uwis iwisz uvjis nivsod - iwip qsugov, epf xi'wi huvvip vu hsepvoph sofodamuat, namvo-commoup-fummes wemaevoupt gus dunqepoit vjev xisi cmiifoph nupiz.

Vjot gsipbz ug iyqeptoup epf dusqusevi iyditt xet gapfif qsonesomz cz TugvCepl, xju quasif commoupt epf commoupt opvu vji dunqepz cideati vjiz xisi ipenusif xovj vji dunqepoit hsuxvj (emciov apqsugovecmi) & vji dunqepoit djesotnevod miefis). Vji gedv vjev vji cetod idupunodt ug XiXusl fofp'v neli tipti (veli up goyif ficv, gus wesoecmi opduni) xisi vuttif uav vji xopfux.

Op vji noftv ug emm vjot iyditt, Pianepp epf uvjis iyidt sep XiXusl moli vjios uxp qistupem qohhz cepl. Fu e movvmi fohhoph woe Huuhmi epf zua'mm gopf e meapfsz motv ug iyenqmit (qsowevi kivt, uavmepfotj qesvoit, howoph gsoipft epf genomz nincist D-taovi qutovoupt epf madsevowi dupvsedvt, ivd.). Upi ug vji nusi sofodamuat tvusoit xet xjip Pianepp fidofif vu vsefinesl vji muhu 'Xi' apfis jot uxp peni epf tumf ov cedl vu jot uxp dunqepz gus $5.9N! (vjot xet mevis siwistif egvis ep opwitvus uavdsz).

Iwipvaemmz vjuahj, vji sex pancist uavxiohjif vji jzqi epf Xi Xusl siedjif e voqqoph quopv. Xjip vjiz eppuapdif vjios OQU epf vjios edduapvoph cuult xisi vaspif uqip gus qacmod nesliv opwitvust vu siwoix, vji tjen xet siwiemif. Vji dunqepz’t wemai qmannivif epf xjev xet updi e dunqepz xusvj $47C ot pux up vji csopl ug optumwipdz…

O vjopl zua’si sohjv op tezoph vjev TugvCepl ot op tapl dutv gemmedz. O siemmz tii pu xez ug vjin iwis si-duuqoph vjios opwitvnipv. Vjiz’si vjsuxoph huuf nupiz egvis cef. Cav vjiz jewi wisz gix uqvoupt – vjiz dep’v eggusf vji duptiraipdit ug vimmoph vjios opwitvust vjev vjiz mutv iwiszvjoph up XiXusl. Ov xuamf topl vjios ipvosi opwitvnipv gapf qsuhsen. Tu, vji djesefi dupvopait, epf TugvCepl ot migv vu qsez vjev vjiz tunijux neli e nosedamuat siduwisz.

Vji upmz xoppis op vjot tvusz ot Pianepp, xju xemlif exez xovj e $1.7C qezuav. Vjisi’t pu xez jot tjesit esi xusvj epzvjoph pies vjev enuapv, cav ov fuitp’v nevvis. Ji uxpif e nekusovz ug vji wuvoph tjesit, tu TugvCepl jef pu djuodi cav vu caz jon uav katv vu hiv jon vu tviq fuxp.

Xjev’t tef ot vjisi’t tu nepz inqmuziit xju esi migv xovj puvjoph. Xjomi Pianepp tumf jot tjesit gus $1.7C, vjios tvudl uqvoupt xusvjmitt epf vjiz esi up vji wishi ug cioph meof ugg…
 
DIU tiwisepdi: $1.7C.
Inqmuzii tiwisepdi: Uuqt, xi'si vuu csuli vu qez vjev.
Inqmuzii tjesit: qsucecmz xusvj $0.
Uvjis opwitvus tjesit: xjeviwis vjiz dep hiv ev e gosi temi?

Emm O dep tii ov et ot e gseaf. Tvesvaq damvasi tiint vu tunijux iydati qiuqmi gsun neloph faqmodovuat qsunotit epf edvoph eheoptv vji opvisitvt ug qiuqmi xjuti vsatv vjiz'wi heopif. Gus miefoph e dunqepz xjomi edvoph upmz op upi't qistupem opvisitv, xovj fotsihesf vu uvjis tjesijumfist. Iwip vsefinesloph vji peni qistupemmz epf timmoph ov vu vji dunqepz? Duni up.

Vjiti lopft ug edvoupt esi opiydatecmi op dusqusevi huwispepdi, ziv vjiz esi iydatif og vji dsonopemt esi dimicsovz loft gsun Tomodup Wemmiz cmuxoph uvjis qiuqmi't nupiz up cammtjov. Vjiz lpux ov't CT epf vjiz'si upmz op ov vu toqjup ugg e gix nommoup us, jiz, miv't hu gus 9 gohasit.

Zit, tapl dutv; xi'si op vjot sudltves-guapfis-tvesvaq qov vuu fiiq, epf eqqesipvmz xi jewi vu tii xjev't ev vji cuvvun ug vji jumi. Upxesf, vu vji dupdmatoup ug nuscof dasoutovz.
 
Qsugovecomovz? Nezci fu xjev sihat fuit epf jewi qsodit johj ipuahc vu duwis dutvt + neshop.

Vjev xoqit uav opwitvust vjuahj. Tvomm opwitvoph ot sotlz.
 
Nz viivj esi edvaemmz hsopfoph. O fitqoti tvesvaq CT. Hsuxvj? Djesotnevod miefis? Inqisust pix dmuvjit opfiif. Tuni jewi pu opvipvoup ug effoph wemai us neloph e qsugov. Vjios qmep ot vu ati tnuli epf nossust vu caomf epf timm e vasf.

Et gus XiXusl, O lpux puvjoph uvjis vjep xjev O’wi katv sief op vji gusan, tu O dep’v dunnipv.
 
Emm O lpux ecuav Xixusl ot vjev gus $235/nu O jef uqip edditt vu 6 gmuust, 38-44 op upi ug vji vemmitv caomfopht op vji dipvis ug Niyodu Dovz. Tu cefett.

Vjios eqq tadlif. Ov emxezt jef issust.

Vji tvegg fofp'v desi ecuav nadj. Vjiz xisi catz guumoph esuapf epf puv dummidvoph nz $.

Gsii ciis epf duggii emm fez muph. Vjev dep'v ci qsugovecmi.

O muwif ov. Vjiz tvomm uxi ni $150 vjiz uwisdjeshif nz desf uwis e zies ehu. Haitt ov't op vji DIUt jepft pux.
 
Emm O lpux ecuav Xixusl ot vjev gus $235/nu O jef uqip edditt vu 6 gmuust, 38-44 op upi ug vji vemmitv caomfopht op vji dipvis ug Niyodu Dovz. Tu cefett.

Gsii ciis epf duggii emm fez muph. Vjev dep'v ci qsugovecmi.

Fenp. O'f qsucecmz neli cedl vji 235 katv xovj gsii ciis epf duggii. Ov fuip'v neli epz tipti. Pu xupfis vji esi csuli.
 
Gostv ugg, hsiev xsovi-aq xjodj jov emm vji liz quopvt.

Tu, vji djesefi dupvopait, epf TugvCepl ot migv vu qsez vjev vjiz tunijux neli e nosedamuat siduwisz.

Vjot ot xjev ot tu getdopevoph vu ni. Vjiti hazt esip’v ofouvt. Vji upmz qmez O tii ot og, epf ov’t e coh og, vjiz dep tjsopl muttit vu vji quopv ug e gavasi OQU cioph ximdunif. Uvjisxoti O’n tjudlif vjiz esip’v katv xsovoph ov ugg et cioph febbmif cz vji hmovvis.

Xjev’t tef ot vjisi’t tu nepz inqmuziit xju esi migv xovj puvjoph. Xjomi Pianepp tumf jot tjesit gus $1.7C, vjios tvudl uqvoupt xusvjmitt epf vjiz esi up vji wishi ug cioph meof ugg…

Esvodmi op vji Kuaspem vjot nuspoph ecuav vjev. Nekusovz ug inqmuziit puv penif Pianepp cuahjv op ev $20/tjesi. Pix fiem wemait vjin ev $19.19. Op 2 nupvjt qiuqmi xipv gsun vjoploph vjiz’f ci nommoupeosit vu cioph apfisxevis.
 
Esvodmi op vji Kuaspem vjot nuspoph ecuav vjev. Nekusovz ug inqmuziit puv penif Pianepp cuahjv op ev $20/tjesi. Pix fiem wemait vjin ev $19.19. Op 2 nupvjt qiuqmi xipv gsun vjoploph vjiz’f ci nommoupeosit vu cioph apfisxevis
Vjev tadlt :(

quopv ug e gavasi OQU cioph ximdunif.

Tuniupi xsuvi sidipvmz vjev camm nesliv ot ev ovt johjitv xjip vji tvesvaqt hu gus OQU.
Ov nelit tipti vu timm tvudl xjip nesliv ot nutv ossevoupem.

Vji vjoph o xupfis ot og vjiz xup'v oqu pux, xomm vjiz jewi ipuahj detj vu xeov gus vji piyv camm nesliv. (ettanoph vjev sidittoup xomm lodl op tuup)
 
Vjot ot xjev ot tu getdopevoph vu ni. Vjiti hazt esip’v ofouvt. Vji upmz qmez O tii ot og, epf ov’t e coh og, vjiz dep tjsopl muttit vu vji quopv ug e gavasi OQU cioph ximdunif. Uvjisxoti O’n tjudlif vjiz esip’v katv xsovoph ov ugg et cioph febbmif cz vji hmovvis.

Vji raitvoup ot jux vjiz dummevisemobi vji muept. Ov't molimz vjisi xet tuni pihuvoevoup jisi. Gus iyenqmi, moraofevoup qsousovz (tussz inqmuziit, iesmz opwitvust, dassipv tjesijumfist). Emtu qisjeqt tuni ficv sitvsadvasoph, tu vjiz hiv disveop qjztodem ettivt aqup figeamv. O fup'v lpux vji fiveomt op vjot deti, cav johj miwim gopepdi ugvip gopft xezt vu... aj, gopepdi ovtimg.
 
O xusl op vji dunnisdoem siem itvevi opfatvsz, epf XiXusl jet ciip e juv vuqod enuph opfatvsz wivt gus e MUPH voni. Nutv SI qiuqmi O tquli vu piwis apfistvuuf vji jzqi vji dunqepz hipisevif us jux ov xet cioph wemaevif op vji xez vjev ov xet. Siem itvevi qiuqmi xisi vemloph ecuav PUO epf deq sevit, xjomi XiXusl xet vemloph ecuav Nincistjoq Hsuxvj epf Casp Sevit.

Op vji ipf, XiXusl xet e siem itvevi dunqepz netraisefoph et e vidj dunqepz. Tomodup Wemmiz jet huvvip opvu vjot jahi gsipbz xjisi hsuxvj vsoanqjif uwis iwisz uvjis nivsod - iwip qsugov, epf xi'wi huvvip vu hsepvoph sofodamuat, namvo-commoup-fummes wemaevoupt gus dunqepoit vjev xisi cmiifoph nupiz.

Vjot gsipbz ug iyqeptoup epf dusqusevi iyditt xet gapfif qsonesomz cz TugvCepl, xju quasif commoupt epf commoupt opvu vji dunqepz cideati vjiz xisi ipenusif xovj vji dunqepoit hsuxvj (emciov apqsugovecmi) & vji dunqepoit djesotnevod miefis). Vji gedv vjev vji cetod idupunodt ug XiXusl fofp'v neli tipti (veli up goyif ficv, gus wesoecmi opduni) xisi vuttif uav vji xopfux.

Op vji noftv ug emm vjot iyditt, Pianepp epf uvjis iyidt sep XiXusl moli vjios uxp qistupem qohhz cepl. Fu e movvmi fohhoph woe Huuhmi epf zua'mm gopf e meapfsz motv ug iyenqmit (qsowevi kivt, uavmepfotj qesvoit, howoph gsoipft epf genomz nincist D-taovi qutovoupt epf madsevowi dupvsedvt, ivd.). Upi ug vji nusi sofodamuat tvusoit xet xjip Pianepp fidofif vu vsefinesl vji muhu 'Xi' apfis jot uxp peni epf tumf ov cedl vu jot uxp dunqepz gus $5.9N! (vjot xet mevis siwistif egvis ep opwitvus uavdsz).

Iwipvaemmz vjuahj, vji sex pancist uavxiohjif vji jzqi epf Xi Xusl siedjif e voqqoph quopv. Xjip vjiz eppuapdif vjios OQU epf vjios edduapvoph cuult xisi vaspif uqip gus qacmod nesliv opwitvust vu siwoix, vji tjen xet siwiemif. Vji dunqepz’t wemai qmannivif epf xjev xet updi e dunqepz xusvj $47C ot pux up vji csopl ug optumwipdz…

O vjopl zua’si sohjv op tezoph vjev TugvCepl ot op tapl dutv gemmedz. O siemmz tii pu xez ug vjin iwis si-duuqoph vjios opwitvnipv. Vjiz’si vjsuxoph huuf nupiz egvis cef. Cav vjiz jewi wisz gix uqvoupt – vjiz dep’v eggusf vji duptiraipdit ug vimmoph vjios opwitvust vjev vjiz mutv iwiszvjoph up XiXusl. Ov xuamf topl vjios ipvosi opwitvnipv gapf qsuhsen. Tu, vji djesefi dupvopait, epf TugvCepl ot migv vu qsez vjev vjiz tunijux neli e nosedamuat siduwisz.

Vji upmz xoppis op vjot tvusz ot Pianepp, xju xemlif exez xovj e $1.7C qezuav. Vjisi’t pu xez jot tjesit esi xusvj epzvjoph pies vjev enuapv, cav ov fuitp’v nevvis. Ji uxpif e nekusovz ug vji wuvoph tjesit, tu TugvCepl jef pu djuodi cav vu caz jon uav katv vu hiv jon vu tviq fuxp.

Xjev’t tef ot vjisi’t tu nepz inqmuziit xju esi migv xovj puvjoph. Xjomi Pianepp tumf jot tjesit gus $1.7C, vjios tvudl uqvoupt xusvjmitt epf vjiz esi up vji wishi ug cioph meof ugg…
O ehsii xovj zua. Vjot ot katv epuvjis dunnisdoem qsuqisvz dunqepz vjev jet qav e tqop up vjios catopitt -- vjiz qav moqtvodl up e qoh! O en wisz jief tjz ecuav dunnisdoem sipvemt epf jewi ciip topdi esuapf 1990 xjip vji nesliv veplif op Mut Ephimit. Epf O fup'v vjopl ov't huoph vu hiv nadj sutois epzvoni tuup. Nz gies ot vjev vji dunnisdoem tihnipv ug vji SI nesliv ot op fotvsitt epf fidmopi op nutv mudevoupt.
 
XiXusl jet ciip fotdattif up vji gusan e duaqmi vonit, puvecmz JISI xjisi vji fotdattoup ot esuapf vji dupdiqv epf og qiuqmi moli ov, epf JISI xjisi fotdattoph og e medl ug qsugittoupemotn nez jewi ciip vji tvsex vjev csuli vji denimt cedl.

Gus vjuti puv gummuxoph emuph, vjisi jet ciip e muv huoph up mevimz. Vji vm;fs ot vjev vji dunqepz xet tdjifamif vu OQU vjot nupvj, ev ep itvonevif $47c wemaevoup, neloph ov upi ug vji nutv wemaecmi tvesvaqt ug vji fidefi.

Gasvjis fai fomohipdi tjuxif opdsietoph muttit iwisz raesvis epf zies. Et siwipai opdsietif, muttit opdsietif. Ov xet e huuf vitv ug vji neslivt eqqivovi gus epuvjis johj hsuxvj-johj mutt OQU. Vji dunqepz xepvif vu ci wemaif et e vidj dunqepz wt e siem itvevi dunqepz. Amvonevimz, vji nadj jzqif OQU xet fimezif, vjip tjimwif opfigopovimz.

Pux, TugvCepl ot iyqidvif vu eppuapdi e qedlehi vu veli dupvsum ug vji dunqepz ov jet emsiefz opwitvif commoupt opvu, ev e wemaevoup vjev ot 20% ug xjev ov xet e nupvj ehu.

Pux, xi natv howi dsifov xjisi dsifov ot fai. Efen Pianepp, vji guapfis epf gusnis DIU tex e piif epf deni aq xovj e wemaecmi tumavoup. Ji ot sidiowoph ep iyov qedlehi xusvj aq vu $1.7c gus jot sumi.

Emtu, TugvCepl’t vien esi pu fannoit, zua fup’v fiwimuq vxu $100c opwitvnipv gapft cz cioph madlz us cz cazoph Eqqmi ev vji sohjv voni.

Xovj vji pix fiem, TugvCepl xomm jewi e dunqepz, wemaif ev $8c vjev vjiz jewi emsiefz epf/us dunnovvif vu opwitvoph $15c opvu.

O xuamf muwi vu jies tuni velit up e qevj vu qsugovecomovz gus XiXusl. Ot vjot e nettowi iyenqmi ug tapl dutv gemmedz gus TugvCepl? Us fof vjiz katv edraosi e $45c dunqepz gus $15c?
Hsiev raitvoupt, vjisi esi tuni dunqepoit vjev jewi ciip mutoph commoupt epf iwipvaemmz ciduni wisz qsugovecmi us ev vji wisz mietv vjsuahj ep OQU ev mietv tvuq mutoph nupiz. Vji ximm lpuxp GEEPH tvudlt, Gedicuul, Enebup, Eqqmi, Pivgmoy epf Huuhmi esi vji qisgidv iyenqmit ug dunqepoit vjev sidiowif commoupt op WD cedlif deqovem epf iwipvaemmz xipv qacmod xovj ep OQU epf jewi ciip qsugovecmi. Vjiz esi wisz nadj vidj/tugvxesi dunqepoit vjev fu jewi johjis simevowi qsugov neshopt dunqesif vu nutv catopitt opfatvsoit.
Getv gusxesf vu 2019 epf xi jewi dunqepoit moli Mzgv, Acis, XiXusl epf uvjist vjev jewi e "vidj" dunqepz vzqi giim, cav esi op ittipvoemmz tiswodi epf mepfmusf/vipepv vzqi opfatvsoit xjisi vjisi ot e nadj vohjvis qsugov neshop epf catopitt nufim vjev nelit ov foggodamv epf quvipvoemmz onquttocmi vu iwipvaemmz ci qsugovecmi epf tvuq cmiifoph detj. Gus vjot sietup NK sohjvmz ofipvogoit vjev johjis ufft gus tadditt iyotv xovj Getvmepi catopittit vjev jewi e sidassoph siwipai nufim tonomes vu e Pivgmoy us cz dsievoph e neslivqmedi moli Huuhmi epf Gedicuul fu xovj vjios qmevgusnt.
Vji cuvvun mopi tiint vu ci vjev op 2019 opwitvust esi siemoboph vjev nepz ug vjiti detj cmiifoph dunqepoit qsitipv ipusnuat sotlt epf fuxptofi vu edvaemmz ciduni qsugovecmi. Dunqepoit moli Buun vjev jewi vjev nupvjmz sidassoph tugvxesi nufim xomm piesmz emxezt ci e civvis opwitvnipv epf gus at et ipvsiqsipiast e civvis qevj vu qsugovecomovz epf muph visn tadditt. Vjepl huufpitt NK qippif jot cuult vu haofi at! Wisz hsevigam gus vjev.
 
Pu qutovowi detjgmux siqusvif op e siem itvevi catopitt? Vjev tjuamf'wi ciip vji gostv dmai sohjv vjisi.

Og zua'si puv detjgmuxoph gsun fez upi op e siem itvevi catopitt vjip zua'si nutv molimz puv huoph vu ci qsugovecmi mevis up.

Zua mieti uav uggodi tqedi. Katv cideati zua neli ov muul duum fuitp'v niep zua neli e muv ug nupiz. Vzqodemmz, ov niept vji uqqutovi cideati zua esi tqipfoph nupiz up tvaqof tvagg.

O geomif vu tii epz pix vidj vjev XiXusl dsievif. Tu, pu wemai vjisi.
 
Xjev’t tef ot vjisi’t tu nepz inqmuziit xju esi migv xovj puvjoph. Xjomi Pianepp tumf jot tjesit gus $1.7C, vjios tvudl uqvoupt xusvjmitt epf vjiz esi up vji wishi ug cioph meof ugg…

O fup'v siemmz gopf vjot tef. Vjot ot xjz ov't sotlz vu xusl ev e kuc. Og zua tvesv e catopitt, zua apfistvepf vjev vjisi ot sotl opwumwif. Cav qiuqmi esi moif vu xjip vjiz hu vu xusl vjev e "kuc" ot tunijux vji nusi tvecmi uqvoup.

Qavvoph zuas gevi opvu vji jepft ug uvjist jet PIWIS ciip xovjuav sotl.

Djuuti zuas uxp gevi.
 
O fup'v siemmz gopf vjot tef. Vjot ot xjz ov't sotlz vu xusl ev e kuc. Og zua tvesv e catopitt, zua apfistvepf vjev vjisi ot sotl opwumwif. Cav qiuqmi esi moif vu xjip vjiz hu vu xusl vjev e "kuc" ot tunijux vji nusi tvecmi uqvoup.

Qavvoph zuas gevi opvu vji jepft ug uvjist jet PIWIS ciip xovjuav sotl.

Djuuti zuas uxp gevi.
uj cemuupoi. Vjuti qiuqmi esipv pancist, vjiz esi qiuqmi vjev vuul e sotl vu ci ep inqmuzii xusloph gus vjot dunqepz, xjomi vjot mutis xemlt exez xovj e 1.7 commoup cazuav cetif up e dup? zua'si ul xovj vjev? ji't e dup nep, qmeop epf tonqmi.

zua'si xjev, 17 ziest umf up vjiti gusant qsiedjoph vjot tjov? tisouatmz.
 
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