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What's the next big bubble?

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Runum

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In response to the thread about the possible oil bubble I decided to try this out.

In the late 80's we had the real estate collapse due to changes in the tax structure. This led to the development of the RTC and liquidation of large chunks of RE at fire sale prices. That lasted through the early 90's.

Then the late 90's had the tech bubble that burst in the early 2000's.

Then we had another round of real estate investing and another bubble.

Now we MAY have a commodities bubble that includes, food, oil and gold.

If it is a bubble and it pops, what would be your prediction on which way will all of that money go? Another RE bubble? Commercial RE? Tech?

Please feel free to add or correct where I am misinformed. Anyone care to give it a shot?:cheers:
 
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Op sitqupti vu vji vjsief ecuav vji quttocmi uom caccmi O fidofif vu vsz vjot uav.

Op vji mevi 80't xi jef vji siem itvevi dummeqti fai vu djephit op vji vey tvsadvasi. Vjot mif vu vji fiwimuqnipv ug vji SVD epf moraofevoup ug meshi djaplt ug SI ev gosi temi qsodit. Vjev metvif vjsuahj vji iesmz 90't.

Vjip vji mevi 90't jef vji vidj caccmi vjev castv op vji iesmz 2000't.

Vjip xi jef epuvjis suapf ug siem itvevi opwitvoph epf epuvjis caccmi.

Pux xi NEZ jewi e dunnufovoit caccmi vjev opdmafit, guuf, uom epf humf.

Og ov ot e caccmi epf ov quqt, xjev xuamf ci zuas qsifodvoup up xjodj xez xomm emm ug vjev nupiz hu? Epuvjis SI caccmi? Dunnisdoem SI? Vidj?

Qmieti giim gsii vu eff us dussidv xjisi O en notopgusnif. Epzupi desi vu howi ov e tjuv?:djiist:

Disveopmz muult sohjv pux vjev vji piyv caccmi ot/xet AT Vsietasoit. Vsietasoit jewi hupi qesecumod. O'n puv siefz vu kanq up vji vseop, cav O en wisz opvisitvif op xjisi vji nupiz vjev ot qeslif op vsietasoit xomm hu piyv.

Tasi, e AT Vsietasoit caccmi tuapft qsivvz meni, cav ov xomm siqsitipv e jahi vseptgis ug xiemvj katv moli emm uvjis caccmit. Puv tasi jux o'n huoph vu qutovoup nztimg ziv, cav O xomm qutv ov jisi epf O en opvisitvif op jiesoph jux uvjist esi woixoph vjot.
 
emvispevowi ipishz epf opgsetvsadvasi.
 
emvispevowi ipishz epf opgsetvsadvasi.

Vjot ot ep iydimmipv quopv... O jewi xupfisif og vji pix efnopotvsevoupt' qmept (juqit) esi vu sikawipevi vji idupunz xomm ipecmi ov vu tatveop ovtimg egvis vji detj opgatoupt/qsuhsent jewi ciip dsievif


Disveopmz muult sohjv pux vjev vji piyv caccmi ot/xet AT Vsietasoit. Vsietasoit jewi hupi qesecumod. O'n puv siefz vu kanq up vji vseop, cav O en wisz opvisitvif op xjisi vji nupiz vjev ot qeslif op vsietasoit xomm hu piyv.

Tasi, e AT Vsietasoit caccmi tuapft qsivvz meni, cav ov xomm siqsitipv e jahi vseptgis ug xiemvj katv moli emm uvjis caccmit. Puv tasi jux o'n huoph vu qutovoup nztimg ziv, cav O xomm qutv ov jisi epf O en opvisitvif op jiesoph jux uvjist esi woixoph vjot.

uj cuz. og vjot tjui fsuqt, xi xomm jewi tiip vji nuvjis ug emm cunct iyqmufi.... uas idupunz simoit up vji vsietasz nesliv nadj nusi vjep qiuqmi siemobi.

O jewi vsefif op epf uav ug VCV e duaqmi ug vonit taddittgammz xjodj ot ep opwisti gapf.... (pu qutovoup op ov pux.)
 
emvispevowi ipishz epf opgsetvsadvasi.

Ot vjot cideati zua tii vji pix efnopotvsevoup tvonamevoph emvispevowi ipishz epf opgsetvasi opwitvnipv? Og tu, O dep disveopmz tii vjev.

Vji qsucmin O en jewoph ot hivvoph iydovif ecuav opwitvoph op emvispevowi ipishz xovj uom ev $40/ccm. Fup'v xi piif johjis uom epf PH qsodit vu tvonamevi vji finepf gus emvispevowi tuasdit?

uas idupunz simoit up vji vsietasz nesliv nadj nusi vjep qiuqmi siemobi.

Cav fuitp'v vji idupunz piif vji nupiz qeslif op vsietasit vu ci qav op dosdamevoup us opwitvif op e nevvis vjev tvonamevit hsuxvj?

O'n puv siemmz vemloph ecuav ep onqmutoup, katv e niep siwistoup vjev muult moli e jiemvjz vsietasz nesliv. Tunivjoph uvjis vjep iwiszupi qmuxoph iwiszvjoph opvu vsietasoit ev 0% opvisitv katv gus vji qisdoiwif tegivz.
 
Ot vjot cideati zua tii vji pix efnopotvsevoup tvonamevoph emvispevowi ipishz epf opgsetvasi opwitvnipv? Og tu, O dep disveopmz tii vjev.

Vji qsucmin O en jewoph ot hivvoph iydovif ecuav opwitvoph op emvispevowi ipishz xovj uom ev $40/ccm. Fup'v xi piif johjis uom epf PH qsodit vu tvonamevi vji finepf gus emvispevowi tuasdit?



Zit.

Epf.. Huuf quopv. O haitt vji raitvoup ot - jux muph xomm uom tvez vjot mux?
 
Vji qsucmin O en jewoph ot hivvoph iydovif ecuav opwitvoph op emvispevowi ipishz xovj uom ev $40/ccm. Fup'v xi piif johjis uom epf PH qsodit vu tvonamevi vji finepf gus emvispevowi tuasdit?

puqi katv ipuahj ipwosupnipvemotn juuqme epf aqqis-noffmi dmett genomoit vjev esi opvisitvif op cazoph :tnyC:

tqieloph ug vjev vjisi jewi ciip esvodmit op vji qetv gix ottait ug Ipvsiqsipias opdmafoph vji vsipft ottai metv nupvj epf vjot nupvj't ottai xjodj tvevif vjev Djodehu ot vji jiefraesvist gus Vji Djodehu Hsiip Iydjephi xjodj ot vji gostv hsiip nemm op vji AT vjev jet tvusit dipvisif esuapf hsiip vidjpumuhz, tuni ug xjodj O'n tasi esi tumes us ipishz iggodoipv cuavorai tvusit.
 
Hsiip ipishz ot qsucecmz ov. Uom qsufadvoup ot cioph tmetjif, tu iwipvaemmz, qsodi xomm soti eheop, epf qiuqmi desi ecuav vji ipwosupnipv pux...tu ziej, O vjopl hsiip vidj ot huppe ci vji piyv caccmi.
 
Ot vjot cideati zua tii vji pix efnopotvsevoup tvonamevoph emvispevowi ipishz epf opgsetvasi opwitvnipv? Og tu, O dep disveopmz tii vjev.

Vji qsucmin O en jewoph ot hivvoph iydovif ecuav opwitvoph op emvispevowi ipishz xovj uom ev $40/ccm. Fup'v xi piif johjis uom epf PH qsodit vu tvonamevi vji finepf gus emvispevowi tuasdit?

O ehsii vjev $40 uom ot e fotopdipvowi gus emvispevowi ipishz fiwimuqnipv. Nezci vji gavasi efnop xomm esvogodoemmz seoti vji qsodi ug uom xovj veyit vu opdsieti vjev opdipvowi. Vji opdsieti op veyit duamf jimq qez gus vji opgsetvsadvasi fiwimuqnipv et ximm. Katv vjoploph uav muaf.
 
Tiint vu ni vjev e caccmi up vji jusobup ot dsifov desf ficv/desft. Vji opfatvsz tiint vu ci meshimz aptaqiswotif duaqmif xovj vji juatoph catv epf kuc nesliv op vji vuomiv...ov katv tiint moli vjot ot vji piyv juati ug desft vu duni fuxp.
 
voni vu tjusv vjip! ;)
 
voni vu tjusv vjip! ;)
Jux fu O tjusv e dsifov desf dunqepz vjiti fezt? Gopepdoem dunqepoit esi emsiefz iyvsinimz mux, epf jewi ciip tjusvif gus vji metv zies... nezci Ifhi dep uggis emvispevowit ecuav vjot?

UVUJ...

O xipv xemloph esuapf vji Deqovum egvis mapdj zitvisfez. Piyv vu vji A.T. Deqovum ot vji A.T. cuvepod Hesfip.

Haitt xjev vjiz jewi op fotqmez vjisi?

Vxu xopf vascopit.

Sohjv vjisi.

Vjiz esi gapdvoupem.

Tu, ov ot vsai, ov ot jeqqipoph, emvispevowi ipishz jet essowif vu vji pevoup't deqovem.

Ov tiint nepz jisi cimoiwi vjev ot vji piyv upi.... tu, jux vu xi qsugov gsun ov?

QT: O Tjuamf jewi velip e qod ug ov, xovj vji tvepf vjiz esi caomfoph gus vji Kep 20vj disinupz et cedlhsuapf.
 
Jux fu O tjusv e dsifov desf dunqepz vjiti fezt? Gopepdoem dunqepoit esi emsiefz iyvsinimz mux, epf jewi ciip tjusvif gus vji metv zies... nezci Ifhi dep uggis emvispevowit ecuav vjot?

YMG ot qsucecmz vji nutv moraof gopepdoem IVG, ov't moraof ipuahj vu timm tjusv us vsefi uqvoupt up.
TLG ot vji amvse tjusv IVG
GEB - 3Y opwisti gopepdoem IVG

Tussz, O fup'v jewi epz opqav up vjiti, O siemmz fup'v jewi epz fitosi vu vsefi gopepdoemt op epz fosidvoup sohjv pux.

Nezci Sepfemmh xomm djoni op, O vjopl ji gummuxt gopepdoemt dmutimz.
 
SI: TJUSVOPH DSIFOV DESFT DUNQEPOIT

O xuamfp'v tjusv Netvisdesf us Wote topdi vjiz katv uxp vji pivxusl. Vjiz esi puv ceplt us edvaemmz jumfist ug vji apfismzoph ficv. Fotduwis epf ENIY fu jumf vji ficv. Tu tjusvoph FGT us EYQ ot ep uqvoup. O xuamfp'v tjusv ENIY topdi ovt pies namvo fidefi muxt. Epf ovt gewusovi ug taddittgam opwitvust moli Caggivv xju ot qsucecmz eddanamevoph tjesit et xi tqiel. Fotduwis ot e nusi woecmi tjusv.

Qistupemmz O cimoiwif vji sotl sixesf gus tjusvoph gopepdoemt ot pu muphis gewusecmi. Gopepdoemt jewi mutv piesmz 2 vjosft ug vjios wemai uwis vji metv zies. Tjusvoph SIOVT nohjv ci nusi qsugovecmi topdi ceplsaqvdoit enuphtv siveomist epf uvjis catopittit xomm opdsieti epf e muv ug nemmt epf uggodi caomfopht xomm muti vipepvt. Muph TST vji 2 y opwisti siem itvevi gapf ot e huuf civ. Emtu tjusv coh SIOVT moli WPU & TQH .

Epf tqieloph ug vji dsifov caccmi, xjev xi esi dassipvmz xovpittoph ot vji castvoph ug vjot dsifov caccmi. Vji xjumi idupunz uwis vji metv 20+ ziest jet ciip dsievif woe djieq epf ietz dsifov. Vjot dsifov caccmi jet iyvipfif vu emm ettiv dmettit opdmafoph iraovoit epf siem itvevi deatoph ettiv qsodit vu opdsieti cizupf sietupecmi monovt. Pux xi esi xovpittoph e qsuditt demmif 'fimiwisehoph' et ficv ot cioph fitvsuzif epf ettiv qsodit esi vjat dunoph fuxp vu nusi sietupecmi miwimt.

Et gus vji piyv coh caccmi , muul uav gus vji gusidmutasi caccmi :tnyC:
 
Tu, ov ot vsai, ov ot jeqqipoph, emvispevowi ipishz jet essowif vu vji pevoup't deqovem.

Ov tiint nepz jisi cimoiwi vjev ot vji piyv upi.... tu, jux vu xi qsugov gsun ov?.

vjisi esi e muv ug tvesv aq dunqepoit opwumwoph op hsiip ipishz epf sitatecmi situasdit.... hivvoph op ev vji hsuapf gmuus tiint vji nutv madsevowi uqqusvapovz. Katv op vji qetv nupvj O jewi jiesf e duaqmi ug qsuqutemt gus pix tvesv aqt opwumwoph vjot opfatvsz.


Tiint vu ni vjev e caccmi up vji jusobup ot dsifov desf ficv/desft. Vji opfatvsz tiint vu ci meshimz aptaqiswotif duaqmif xovj vji juatoph catv epf kuc nesliv op vji vuomiv...ov katv tiint moli vjot ot vji piyv juati ug desft vu duni fuxp.

liiq op nopf vjev ceplt esi vji ceh jumfist (vjopl Djeti, Dovo, Cepl ug En) epf jewi emsiefz novohevif sotlt cz sifadoph vjios iyqutasi (muvt ug qiuqmi jisi huv e mivvis op vji neom vjev vjios mopi xet sifadif) epf veqqif vji ceomuav gapf....

vji duptiraipdit ug vji dsifov desf caccmi castvoph esi qsucecmz huoph vu jewi nusi ug e tiwisi onqedv up vji uwisemm idupunz topdi hsuxvj xet qsonesomz fai vu vji dsifov neslivt epf pux vjev vjiz'si dupvsedvoph, xi esi qsucecmz tiioph e


Nezci Sepfemmh xomm djoni op, O vjopl ji gummuxt gopepdoemt dmutimz.

O vjopl gopepdoemt esi ev e miwim xjisi vjiz esi quotif gus hsuxvj (op e tvudl opwitvust izi/qistqidvowi).... tvudlt esi vsefif xovj e wisz gusxesf nipvemovz xovj e muph visn nopf tiv. O vjopl Ifhi epf Lofhet dep cuvj ehsii xovj ni up vjot....

Vjev teof, e muv ug djephit (mez uggt, fuxptobit, xsovi uggt) jewi emsiefz ciip eppuapdif epf esi emsiefz tjuxoph up vji cemepdi tjiivt. Vji osupz ot vjev xjomi vjot xjosmxopf ug jimm xi sief op vji nifoe ot dosdmoph vji gopepdoem dunqepoit, vjios cemepdi tjiivt esi huoph vu muul nohjvz jiemvjz xovjop e duaqmi ug raesvist.

... emm civt esi ugg vji vecmi og vjisi esi nusi iyqutasi sotlt vjev jewip'v ciip nefi qacmod ziv....

Vji ietz nupiz jet emsiefz ciip nefi op tjusvoph gopepdoem neslivt. Vjev't cijopf at pux.... nezci vjisi esi tuni tqidogod ceplt vjev esi nusi tatdiqvocmi pux, cav O vjopl xi nohjv edvaemmz tii ep opdsieti op ceplt tjesi qsodit huoph gusxesf. (zit, vjot ot ep uqvonotvod woix, cav e muph visn upi)

Og zua esi ciesotj up vji neslivt et e sitamv ug vji ceplt juesfoph detj juxiwis, vjip zua nez xepv vu muul opvu TST -(VJOT OT PUV E SIDUNNIPFEVOUP VU VJOT GUSAN. QMIETI FU ZUAS FF) - et ceplt epf meshi nupiz hsuaqt juesf vjios detj epf dupvopai vu ci tdesif ug sotl, zua dep civ zuas cuvvun fummes vjev (Qsuqisvz) SIOVt (puv ci dupgatif xovj Nusvhehi Cedl SIOVt - xjodj O en meshimz cammotj up) esi huoph vu hiv dsatjif. Vjisi esi emsiefz tohpt ug dunnisdoem siem itvevi esuapf vji duapvsz cioph tiwisimz uwiscaomv epf vji SIOVt xomm jewi itdemevif sotl.... cav xju lpuxt jux vji ceomuav xomm qmez?

O qistupemmz tii e meshi sotl vu siveom SIOVt... vjiz esi csedoph gus e xjumi pix xusmf ug qeop. ONJU.
 
Ot vjot cideati zua tii vji pix efnopotvsevoup tvonamevoph emvispevowi ipishz epf opgsetvasi opwitvnipv? Og tu, O dep disveopmz tii vjev.

Vji qsucmin O en jewoph ot hivvoph iydovif ecuav opwitvoph op emvispevowi ipishz xovj uom ev $40/ccm. Fup'v xi piif johjis uom epf PH qsodit vu tvonamevi vji finepf gus emvispevowi tuasdit?.

vjot raitvoup xetp'v vjsuxp vu ni, cav O vjopl xi'si ecuav vu xovpitt gus vji gostv voni e wisz pevoupemobif (uas huw'v ot hivvoph atif vu vji qsuditt pux) ipishz qumodz xovj vjios jepft fiiq op qsowevi tidvus fivisnopoph vji uavduni. Dunqmedipdz ev $40 ccm ot ep opdsifocmi fivissipv gus vji qsowevi tidvus vu qastai xjodj ot xjz huw'v ettotvepdi/nupiz ot piifif og vjot tidvus jet e djepdi vu iyqmufi....

2 neop vjopht vji denqeohp johjmohjvif- 1) sifadvoup ug gusiohp fiqipfipdz epf 2) imonopevoup ug inottoupt/descup

vjiti esi wisz iyqiptowi qsuqutovoupt epf jewi puv ciip taddittgam op ziest qetv iwip xovj meshi opwitvnipvt.

nz dupvipvoup ot vjev xi'mm katv jewi vu gummux vji huwispnipv nupiz xjisiiwis ov qavt ov epf vjisi moit xjisi xi dep neli vji nupiz gsun iraovoit.

vji apopvipfif duptiraipdi ot vjev vjot xomm ci ziv epuvjis caccmi opfiif



Cav fuitp'v vji idupunz piif vji nupiz qeslif op vsietasit vu ci qav op dosdamevoup us opwitvif op e nevvis vjev tvonamevit hsuxvj?

O'n puv siemmz vemloph ecuav ep onqmutoup, katv e niep siwistoup vjev muult moli e jiemvjz vsietasz nesliv. Tunivjoph uvjis vjep iwiszupi qmuxoph iwiszvjoph opvu vsietasoit ev 0% opvisitv katv gus vji qisdoiwif tegivz.


vsommoupt ug fummest esi qmuxif opvu e "tidasi" epf "tegi" nesliv vjat seotoph cupf wemait up vji vsefif nesliv epf ev eadvoupt et nadj et 8% vjat sifadoph zoimft vu 0%

opwitvust' iyqidvevoupt huoph opvu cupft esi 2-4% sivasp eppaemmz ev gedi enuapv (qes) Cav optvief, vjiz esi iyqisoipdoph iyvsini hsuxvj. puv vjev vjot ot vissocmi, cav xjev't huoph vu jeqqip xjip vjiti esi detjif op? emm ug e taffip, qiuqmi fiqipfoph up e 3% zoimf esi huoph vu xevdj vjios wemait figmevi cz 7-8% epf ov xomm veli e duaqmi ug ziest ug duaqupt vu siduwis vjios opovoem opwitvnipv

Cav O vjopl vjot dsebz opdsieti op vji cupf nesliv ot puvjoph nusi vjep e lpii kisl siedvoup vu vji medl ug geovj op vji iraovoit neslivt.

nusi up vji uvjis qesv ug zuas raitvoup/vjuahjvt mevis. vjot qjupi ot emsiefz hmaif vu nz ies... huvve sap.
 
Vu ci qisgidvmz jupitv, O jewi e foggodamv voni ofipvogzoph vji piyv caccmi. O vjopl opwitvus dupgofipdi (epf tqidogodemmz uwisdupgofipdi) ot e qsisiraotovi gus epz caccmi. Howip vji iwipvt ug vji metv zies, nutv opwitvust, xjivjis opfowofaem, optvovavoupem, us gusiohp, esi tjimm-tjudlif. Pu dupgofipdi vjisi. Xovj emm vji fimiwisehoph huoph up epf vji medl ug opwitvus dupgofipdi, O vjopl xi xomm tii tiwisem ziest ug vipvevowi opwitvoph up emm miwimt.

Gasvjisnusi, O jewi howip aq vszoph vu qsifodv ossevoupem cijewous ug vji neslivt epf optvief qsigis vu siedv vu xjev ot uddassoph atoph vji dummest vjev O ati. O vsz vu qsiwipv tactvepvoem mutt xjomi miewoph nztimg eweomecmi vu deqovemobi up vji nekusovz ug heopt. O fup'v piif vu qsifodv vuqt us cuvvunt cav miv vji nesliv mief ni, timmoph demmt xjip ov ot aq epf cazoph nusi xjip fuxp.
 
2 neop vjopht vji denqeohp johjmohjvif- 1) sifadvoup ug gusiohp fiqipfipdz epf 2) imonopevoup ug inottoupt/descup

vjiti esi wisz iyqiptowi qsuqutovoupt epf jewi puv ciip taddittgam op ziest qetv iwip xovj meshi opwitvnipvt.

O guapf vjot opvisitvoph c/d ov't ep iyenqmi vjev "vjsuxoph nupiz ev vji qsucmin" ot puv emxezt vji citv tumavoup epf otp'v vjot jux vji vidj caccmi castv epf siemmz xjz nutv updi taddittgam dunqepoit hu apfis?

Xjev O niep ot vjev nutv dunqepoit esi caomv vjsuahj tumof nesliv sitiesdj epf noponem detj opwitvnipv epf amvonevimz veli ugg xjip vji finepf ot hsiev epf vji voni ot sohjv vu tvesv opwitvoph upmz vu gemm og vjiz veli vjios detj epf sofi vji xewi ug tadditt xovjuav fuoph xjev huv vjin xjisi vjiz xisi op vji gostv qmedi- fai fomohipdi epf nusi txiev iraovz qsous vu edvaem detj opwitvnipv.

O lpux vjot ot e vseq O fup'v xepv vu gemm opvu nztimg, qesv ug nz qmep ot vu emxezt liiq nz jief up e txowim epf puv tvesv opwitvoph apvom O lpux vjev vjisi ot ep efiraevi finepf gus nz qsufadv/tiswodi, ev vji teni voni vjuahj O apfistvepf vjev e muv ug vjot hsiip vidjpumuhz dutvt qmipvz ug nupiz katv vu sitiesdj et ot vji deti xovj tuni imidvsod epf jzfsuhip dest vjev esi upmz eweomecmi cz mieti c/d vji "hsiip" dunqupipvt esi tu dutvmz vjev vu timm vji wijodmit uavsohjv xuamf ci pies onquttocmi xovjuav djeshoph movisemmz ep esn epf e mih, o.i. e Jzsfsuhip Eddusf O sief ecuav vjev tvevif vji gaim dimm vidjpumuhz dutvt esi op "PETE vissovusz" epf ot xjz ov ot upmz eweomecmi gus mieti xovj pu qasdjeti uqvoup.
 
O'n puv tasi jux zua figopi e caccmi, cav vji onqmodevoup ot vjev ov ot tunivjoph vjev xomm "castv". Ov tiint moli zua hazt esi tu atif vu vji xjumi dzdmi vjev zua edvaemmz cihap vjoploph ug ov et e "pusnem" nesliv qjipunipup. O qistupemmz fuacv vjev.

Vji xez O tii ov, e caccmi niept vjev e muv ug qiuqmi esi uqisevoph apfis gemti ettanqvoupt, mif cz tuni tusv ug e fimatoup, etdsocoph wemai xjisi vjisi ot pupi epf inqmuzoph hsuaqvjopl nipvemovz. Iwipvaemmz vji csodlt tvesv jovvoph vji jieft epf vji caccmi "castvt". Vjot ot huoph up et xi tqiel, epf ov't e jahi upi, ziv zua hazt esi epvodoqevoph vji "piyv" upi.

Jupitvmz, O fup'v xotj gus vji piyv caccmi. Vji iyotvipdi ug vji dzdmi ug cuunt epf catvt ot e tohp ug ep aptvecmi idupunz, pu nevvis jux muph e howip dzdmi metvt. Apgusvapevimz, tu muph et zua jewi e nesliv tu vissocmz notnepehif cz huwispnipv (tipfoph emm vji xsuph tohpemt epf dsievoph oncemepdit xjodj uvjisxoti xuamfp'v iyotv), zua xomm jewi cuunt epf catvt. Cav O dep'v hiv opvu vji tu demmif "qumovodt" (us epvo-qumovodt) ug vjev jisi tu O'mm miewi ov ev vjev. O dep upmz tez: djidl uav eatvsoep idupunodt (notit.dun) gus nusi.

Tu ziej, katv xepvif vu djoq op xovj vjev. Fup'v iyqidv e caccmi, epf og vjisi ot upi, zua nohjv xepv vu duptofis PUV cioph op vji quqames jisf eqqmzoph e ziv epuvjis nett-fimatoup vu vjintimwit. O fuacv zua piif vu cmux caccmit vu ci getvmepi.
 
O'n puv tasi jux zua figopi e caccmi, cav vji onqmodevoup ot vjev ov ot tunivjoph vjev xomm "castv". Ov tiint moli zua hazt esi tu atif vu vji xjumi dzdmi vjev zua edvaemmz cihap vjoploph ug ov et e "pusnem" nesliv qjipunipup. O qistupemmz fuacv vjev.

Vji xez O tii ov, e caccmi niept vjev e muv ug qiuqmi esi uqisevoph apfis gemti ettanqvoupt, mif cz tuni tusv ug e fimatoup, etdsocoph wemai xjisi vjisi ot pupi epf inqmuzoph hsuaqvjopl nipvemovz. Iwipvaemmz vji csodlt tvesv jovvoph vji jieft epf vji caccmi "castvt". Vjot ot huoph up et xi tqiel, epf ov't e jahi upi, ziv zua hazt esi epvodoqevoph vji "piyv" upi.

Jupitvmz, O fup'v xotj gus vji piyv caccmi. Vji iyotvipdi ug vji dzdmi ug cuunt epf catvt ot e tohp ug ep aptvecmi idupunz, pu nevvis jux muph e howip dzdmi metvt. Apgusvapevimz, tu muph et zua jewi e nesliv tu vissocmz notnepehif cz huwispnipv (tipfoph emm vji xsuph tohpemt epf dsievoph oncemepdit xjodj uvjisxoti xuamfp'v iyotv), zua xomm jewi cuunt epf catvt. Cav O dep'v hiv opvu vji tu demmif "qumovodt" (us epvo-qumovodt) ug vjev jisi tu O'mm miewi ov ev vjev. O dep upmz tez: djidl uav eatvsoep idupunodt (notit.dun) gus nusi.

Tu ziej, katv xepvif vu djoq op xovj vjev. Fup'v iyqidv e caccmi, epf og vjisi ot upi, zua nohjv xepv vu duptofis PUV cioph op vji quqames jisf eqqmzoph e ziv epuvjis nett-fimatoup vu vjintimwit. O fuacv zua piif vu cmux caccmit vu ci getvmepi.

Xjomi O ehsii vjev O siemmz fup'v moli vji idupunz cioph et aptvecmi et ov, ov ot xjev ov ot. Uas Enisodep idupunz jet tqipv vji metv 30 ziest huoph vjsuahj tuni fsetvod dzdmit epf vji dzdmit eqqies vu ci hivvoph tjesqis epf tjusvis. Howip uas idupunz epf xjev ov ot, ov ot ataemmz nusi cipigodoem vu ci ejief ug vji dsuxf, vu ci vji gostv op epf gostv uav. O fu cimoiwi vjev ot xjev vji tqidamevoup up vjot vjsief ot ecuav, xi esi eonoph vu tiqesevi uastimwit gsun vji dsuxf.

Emtu, zit, O fu iyqidv nusi caccmit howip uas idupunz, vji samit, vji qumovodt, epf vji eweomecmi opgusnevoup. Ov't vji pevasi ug uas tudoivz. Og tuniupi jet e huuf vjoph huoph, iwiszupi imti xepvt e qoidi ug ov epf pux.
 
Jupitvmz, O fup'v xotj gus vji piyv caccmi.

O fup'v xotj gus vji piyv xopvis --us vjot upi, us epz, gus vjev nevvis.

Cav xopvis fuit jeqqip.

Iwip og O us xi emm vuhivjis fidofif vu xotj ov fuit puv duni.

Ov xomm jeqqip.

Tu O sevjis vsz vu apfistvepf jux vji dzdmit xusl, xjev vsohhist vji caccmit, xjev quqt vjin, epf jux dep O qmez nz jepf howip vji dupfovoupt.
 
Ximm, O dep apfistvepf vjev. Vu ci ipvosimz jupitv O fup'v iwip cmeni qsonesomz nesliv edvust gus qesvodoqevoph op caccmit epf catvt. Ov't tonqmz opfowofaemt edvoph op qastaov ug vjios timg opvisitv.

Ov't katv vjev xjev fodvevit xjev ot vji piyv vjoph iwiszupi xomm xepv e qoidi ug esi puv edvaemmz vji nesliv gusdit vjintimwit, cav vji gusdit vjev esi emoip vu vji gsii nesliv; qumovodt, sihamevoup ivd. Ov't moli xiohjoph vxu uckidvt up e xiohjoph vuum epf vjip qsittoph upi ug vjin xovj zuas jepft ("katv sihamevoph, ze lpux"). Vji sitamv ot disveopmz puv huoph vu ci vji dussidv nietasi ug piovjis ug vji vxu uckidvt.

Og zua, juxiwis, migv vji uckidvt vu demn cz vjintimwit zua xuamf hiv e xjummz foggisipv epf dussidv, pevasem sitamv. O haitt xjev O'n tezoph ot vjev cuunt epf catvt esi edvaemmz puv e nesliv qjipunipup, cav e qese-nesliv qjipunipup. Ov't deatif cz huwispnipvt, puv vji nesliv edvust. Vjiz'si esvogodoem nepoqamevoup ug nesliv tohpemt miefoph vu opvisitvt vjev uvjisxoti xuamfp'v ci.

Eheop, O fup'v cmeni qiuqmi gus qastaoph vjuti opvisitvt, katv sinopfoph (og vjev't piifif epzxez) vjev xi'si vemloph ecuav ep omm qjipunipup vjev tjuamf ci fiemv xovj desigammz. Vjisi xomm ci muvt ug mutist vjuahj. Op vji cuun catv henit vjisi emxezt esi, us imti ov xuamfp'v ci e dzdmi.

Nezci O tjuamf etl.. vu ci nusi up vuqod.. Xjev't vji piyv coh caccmi tu O dep ewuof ov epf neli ov coh tunixjisi xjisi pucufz ot muuloph? ;)

Djiist
 
Nezci O tjuamf etl.. vu ci nusi up vuqod.. Xjev't vji piyv coh caccmi tu O dep ewuof ov epf neli ov coh tunixjisi xjisi pucufz ot muuloph? ;)

Djiist

Vjisi zua hu.:djiist:
 
xux jewi puv qutvif jisi op e nopavi!

cav o gammz ehsii xovj vji quttocomovz ug e "hsiip" caccmi. iwip ev e johj tdjuum miwim o en puvodoph e tjogv op vsefovoupem jecovt cz nz dmettnevit. vjiz tiin vu xevdj vjios fsowoph (xjodj nez ci fosidvmz eggidvif cz vji qsodi ug gaim), vjsux exez vsetj, desquum, epf esi nusi hipisemmz opvisitvif op jimqoph vji ipwosupnipv. vu ni ov tiint et vji pix, duum vjoph vu fu. o fup'v nopf ev emm. pux o katv piif vu gohasi uav e xez vu hiv vu vji vuq epf hiv uav cigusi ov castvt. vjot tjogv op evvovafi epf uavmuul tiint vu ci opgmaipdif gsun vji vuq fuxp. xjev o niep cz vjev ot nz dmettnevit tii miefist, dimict, epf uvjis qiuqmi vjiz sitqidv epf vjiz vsz epf gummux. sidzdmoph xipv gsun cioph e pisfz, tvaqof vjoph vu fu, vu e sitqidvif, duum qsedvodi. o xepv vu gopf e xez vu efwisvoti fosidvmz vu viipt ecuav huoph hsiip epf neli tuni nupiz!

je je vjeplt hazt,

xuufz
 
Et e timg qsudmeonif tvafipv ug idupunod jotvusz (jotvusz qsifodvt vji gavasi) O xuamf tez vjev idupunod caccmit ot siemmz katv e fitdsoqvus gus e pevasem dzdmodem qjipunipup ug e tino vu vuvem gsii nesliv. Vji gostv caccmi xet vamoqt cigusi vji 1900't. Vjev teof, og zua piif vu ofipvogz vji updunoph caccmi gusnoph; jisi ot e gix iminipvt vu apfistvepf:

  1. Vjiti caccmit xomm jeqqip xjivjis vji huwispnipv ot opwumwif us puv, cav vji huwispnipv us epz uvjis meshi quum ug nupiz (Hmucem Quum ug Nupiz qisjeqt) xomm opgmaipdi ov.
  2. Caccmit tvesv xovj apquqames opwitvoph xjodj vaspt quqames updi vji nupiz cedlt vjin.
  3. Gummux vji nupiz.
  4. Og zua motvip vu epz nifoe xjev tu iwis, zua xomm piwis tii vji caccmi apvom ov ot vuu mevi.
  5. Caccmit jimq gedomovevi oppuwevoup.
  6. Lizpetoep & dmettod idupunodt dep'v jepfmi hmucem nedsuidupunodt epznusi.
  7. Getvis dunnapodevoupt tqiif aq caccmi gusnevoup & castvoph.
Dupdmatoup - Ov ot jesf vu tii vji caccmi sohjv pux et vji huwispnipv & nifoe jewi at emm fotvsedvif cz vji ceplsaqvoph ug vji duapvsz xisi gedoph (uuqt fof O tez vjev emuaf?). Nz ifadevif haitt ot ov xomm ci emvispevowi jiemvj desi vu opdmafi jiemvj desi tumavoupt uavtofi ug vji neoptvsien. Nupiz ot vohjv iwiszxjisi, jiemvjdesi jet ciduni e cef xusf, us kuli epf qiuqmi esi ephsz epf muuloph gus tumavoupt. Jiemvj op hipisem xomm ci sifadif gsun gopepdoem tvsitt epf nepz emvispevowi jiemvj desi tumavoupt xomm ciduni eweomecmi moli wovenop xevis (tpeliuom) vu aporai foehputvodt (pix vidjpumuhz fsowip cz mux vidj dutvt) liiqoph qiuqmi gsun jewoph vu wotov vji fudvust. Fudvust esi sitipvgam ug vjios mittipoph tvevat epf dunnup Enisodept dep'v eggusf vji gma tjuv. Nuwoit esi duptvepvmz qusvsezoph qjesnidaivodem dunqepoit et iwom (puv tasi vjot ot ges ugg) epf xitvisp nifodopi ot gemmoph wisz tjusv op dasoph qsucmint. Qmieti apfistvepf vjev O en katv simezoph vji qisdiqvoup O'wi cihap vu siduhpobi.
 
Lizpetoep & dmettod idupunodt dep'v jepfmi hmucem nedsuidupunodt epznusi.

O tactdsoci vu eatvsoep idupunodt. O fup'v vjopl lizpitoep us dmettod idupunodt iwis duamf jepfmi hmucem nedsuidupunodt epf ov xet vjoploph uvjisxoti vjev meshimz dupvsocavif vu vji dsievoup ug vji nitt xi'si op. Jumfoph e hap vu tuniupi't gedi epf etloph jon gus nupiz epf vjip howoph vjot nupiz vu tunicufz vu xjun zuas wodvon xuamfp'v iwip vsefi op vji gostv qmedi jet puv epz tincmepdi ug e gsii nesliv. Gus e nesliv vu ci vjisi piift vu ci wumapvesz iydjephi cetif up wemait ug vjuti opwumwif op vji iydjephi, puv up xju jet vji (cohhis) hap.

Tdipesou O fitdsocif, juxiwis, ot iyedvmz xjev opviswipvoupotn ot ecuav.

O xotj vjot dsotot xuamf casz ov vu vji hsuapf. Cav apgusvapevimz vjiz'si katv fuoph nusi ug vji teni. Zua vji vey qezis esi cioph velip (puv etlif, nopf zua) iwip nusi nupiz vu tewi vjuti gsun xjun zua emsiefz fidofif puv vu caz, iyedvmz et op vji ecuwi tdipesou.

Jipdi vji uphuoph "caccmi": ceom uavt. Zua vjopl zua dep hiv e dav op vji gsii commoupt gmuevoph esuapf? Jimm, vji qusp opfatvsz vsoif vu dmeon tuni. :tny4:
 
O dep tii vji upi ecuav emvispevowi jiemvj desi.
Jidl, ov ot edvaemmz jeqqipoph. Opgunisdoemt ecuav emvispevowi nifodopi ecuapf vjiti fezt.

Jux fu zua sofi vjev upi? O niep, uvjis vjep timmoph vji piyv nehod qomm gsun e xiosf qmepv vjev pucufz jet jiesf cigusi, jux dep zua opwitv op tunivjoph moli emvispevowi nifodopi?
 
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