Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Andreas Thiel]

Hm i may be wrong, but it seems we are both thinking on different time scales (as the post from @Kasimir highlights, where he discusses short term prices).

As a buy and hold investor, I am thinking very long term.I purchased several years ago and don't intend to sell for 20-30 more years.

Well ... difficult to take apart. I am talking about the validity of hodling as well ... but I think the next year ... maybe two years might decide how lucrative that bet is. We have seen the narrative that the Bitcoin bubble has burst before ... and if Gold performs a lot better short term, than that narrative can scare investors away for good. And there are many people who want their "told-you-so" moment in both camps.

 

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[Kasimir]

I'm not huge on day trading, swing trading, weekly trading, etc. Whenever I've tried to do it, I suck at it. I've come to learn that my strength is in recognizing longer term trends that will maturate over 10-15 years or more. My weakness is timing local tops and bottoms.

In any of these three scenarios, when I look over the next 4 years of the presidency of the winner, there are significant economic challenges that will really put pressure on breaking the USD as the global reserve/sovereign currency.

If Trump wins, he will continue to blindly pump the stock market, despite the economy unraveling under the surface. If Biden wins, expect socialism to kill innovation and drive out entrepreneurs, classic Atlas Shrugged style.

In both situations, expect much more money printing, as this seems to be the de facto method of solving problems these days.

So when I consider BTC vs. DXY over the next 4 years, DXY doesn't really stand a chance, from what I can see. I don't have a crystal ball though, so let me know if you think I'm missing something significant.

While I may analyze the markets on a short-term level I never invest in weekly trading or so. But it can help to get a good entry or exit point. Tried day trading and just lost too much and I don't like the basics of it. Then I rather just go to a casino or put my money on a candidate in the upcoming election. That would be a whole different topic.

Think you are right on the inflation on a long-term view. Think the inflation will be worse with Biden but also not great with Trump. On BTC vs. DXY I'm also on the same page as you're. Think DXY doesn't have a chance.

I'm thinking about putting more money in BTC, but still not sure. Hadn't a big problem if I lost 100% of it, but just not sure that 13k is the best entry-level.

 

[csalvato]

I'm thinking about putting more money in BTC, but still not sure. Hadn't a big problem if I lost 100% of it, but just not sure that 13k is the best entry-level.

I think it's possible we see a pull back to 12k, 11k or even high 9s.

That said, I suck at predicting tops and bottoms.

 

[Kasimir]

I think it's possible we see a pull back to 12k, 11k or even high 9s.

That said, I suck at predicting tops and bottoms.

Think it's really difficult to predict atm. And I suck too at least if I don't concentrate on one topic, like election or Covid. Invested most of my current assets a long time ago. I'll put in some more at around 12k and wait with the rest. But thanks a lot!

 

[Kasimir]

Holy shit. I knew that there were some tricks to get or be president. But didn't know that it was that bad. Totally changes my statements.

If Biden wins with a small margin and Trump won't go out of office there will be a problem. The question is if he would lose his republicans back or not. If so he could easily get impeached.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZWRhLW7Y8w


What do you guys think?

 

[csalvato]

What do you guys think?

I think there's never been a better time to own BTC.

 

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[Kasimir]

Sorry if my last post didn't suit much in that thread. But I think it could have a big influence on Bitcoin.
I'm not for or against either presidential candidate.

I think there's never been a better time to own BTC.

Couldn't agree more. I'm waiting a little until I'm sure that it'll turn out this way and then it could be a great entry signal.

 

[mguerra]

What kind of influence do you guys think it will be on Bitcoin?

I think most of the people will jump on it after the world chaos that will follow in the next months...

I'm going bullish now.

No fear.


Ps: What's are you guys entry points?

 

[Kasimir]

What kind of influence do you guys think it will be on Bitcoin?

I think most of the people will jump on it after the world chaos that will follow in the next months...

I'm going bullish now.

No fear.


Ps: What's are you guys entry points?

Really difficult question. I'm going in when I'm sure that Biden wins. Doesn't matter if it's already at 15k and I lost 1'000$/bitcoin. I like to minimalize risk which doesn't have to be taken.
If I get an entry point under 15k I'm happy. Think if we really get the big chaos which I think we get we'll see some new highs. I think the key to these new highs are that Trump doesn't want to leave the Whitehouse.
On that topic something interesting to watch:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuqhhrmhfCI

I know it's CNN and it's not neutral, regardless it's interesting to know.

I don't like the fact that I'm betting on world chaos and I'd never go bearish on an index like S&P 500 but I just believe in Bitcoin and it'll go up even without the chaos. The only worry is that it already went up to 14.5k from 10.5k. But we'll see.

 

[mguerra]

Thanks man, I appreciate your answer.

I'm already all in on BTC and jumping out of the government. I think Bitcoin is only the logical next step for our civilization to make to advance as a society.

To me Bitcoin is like a young genius startup that disrupted the financial system.

Regardless of it's failures and needed improvements, it will keep growing because it has massive forces behind it.

The laws of the "new market " are heavily poiting towards Bitcoin / decentralized currency - and there are lots of upsides to be taken advantage of until it loses its crazy volatile returns.

The old system is broke. We are on the information era. The timing is right.

Too many people have access to internet, information and technology today. Censorship is difficult now and this makes difficult to mantain control over the population. Too many people know what's going on... and have the power to do something about it.

Maybe Bitcoin is the next tech bubble. Maybe it is the next level of our organization as a species.

One thing I know for sure: fiat is dead.

Get in before is time to get out.

 

[Kasimir]

Thanks man, I appreciate your answer.

I'm already all in on BTC and jumping out of the government. I think Bitcoin is only the logical next step for our civilization to make to advance as a society.

To me Bitcoin is like a young genius startup that disrupted the financial system.

Regardless of it's failures and needed improvements, it will keep growing because it has massive forces behind it.

The laws of the "new market " are heavily poiting towards Bitcoin / decentralized currency - and there are lots of upsides to be taken advantage of until it loses its crazy volatile returns.

The old system is broke. We are on the information era. The timing is right.

Too many people have access to internet and information today. Censorship is difficult now and this makes difficult to mantain control over the population. Too many people know what's going on... and have the power to do something about it.

Maybe Bitcoin is the next tech bubble. Maybe it is the next level of our organization as a species.

One thing I know for sure: fiat is dead.

Get in before is time to get out.

Couldn't agree more. I think and hope that it will be the next big thing. But I'm not ready to lose all my money. As of my current situation, I don't have to worry about finances too much. However, I'm not ready to lose all of it. Have now about 25% of my assets in BTC and maybe put in another 10-25%.

Really hope that you/we are right.

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

Thanks man, I appreciate your answer.

I'm already all in on BTC and jumping out of the government. I think Bitcoin is only the logical next step for our civilization to make to advance as a society.

To me Bitcoin is like a young genius startup that disrupted the financial system.

Regardless of it's failures and needed improvements, it will keep growing because it has massive forces behind it.

The laws of the "new market " are heavily poiting towards Bitcoin / decentralized currency - and there are lots of upsides to be taken advantage of until it loses its crazy volatile returns.

The old system is broke. We are on the information era. The timing is right.

Too many people have access to internet and information today. Censorship is difficult now and this makes difficult to mantain control over the population. Too many people know what's going on... and have the power to do something about it.

Maybe Bitcoin is the next tech bubble. Maybe it is the next level of our organization as a species.

One thing I know for sure: fiat is dead.

Get in before is time to get out.

That is just irrational. The odds of idealists organizing, using Bitcoin and transforming the way the world works are zero.

Most people who complain about the broken system go and loot stores or complain on social media. What are those massive forces that you talk about? I don't see them. I only see big players who do everything to water down the original concept and provide commercial alternatives.

When I look at Bitcoin I don't see more than a less proven alternative to Gold ... which might do well in the current system.

If there is a Blockchain that you could bet on if you truly believe that the current system will be eaten up by it, then go for Ethereum with its smart contracts. There is nothing behind Bitcoin that could play much of a role in such a transformation process. If Bitcoin did mature and the price did stabilize the way you describe, then it would be a horrible currency.

I think the chart about how well Bitcoin follows the stock-to-flow projection is interesting and one of my main considerations for future actions:

Bitcoin Halving Will be ‘Make or Break’ for Stock-to-Flow Model: PlanB

In the run-up to the halving, the well-known prediction theory is facing its biggest ever test, with its end-of-year price target now at $30,000

cointelegraph.com

There are also voices that say that there are issues with the stock-to-flow projections and a corrected version is less thrilling.

https://swissrexag.ch/wp-content/uploads/1910_Newsletter-8_stock-to-flow-model-proof-of-non-linearity_EN.pdf

Swissrex model for the valuation of Bitcoin

The stock to flow model was published in March 2019 under the pseudonym PlanB and has become the most popular valuation model for Bitcoin within a very short time. The model states that the Bitcoin valuation depends solely on Bitcoin inflation.

cvj.ch

... $100,000 reached in 2024, not 2021 ... so still fine I guess.

 

[mguerra]

That is just irrational. The odds of idealists organizing, using Bitcoin and transforming the way the world works are zero.

Most people who complain about the broken system go and loot stores or complain on social media. What are those massive forces that you talk about? I don't see them. I only see big players who do everything to water down the original concept and provide commercial alternatives.

When I look at Bitcoin I don't see more than a less proven alternative to Gold ... which might do well in the current system.

If there is a Blockchain that you could bet on if you truly believe that the current system will be eaten up by it, then go for Ethereum with its smart contracts. There is nothing behind Bitcoin that could play much of a role in such a transformation process. If Bitcoin did mature and the price did stabilize the way you describe, then it would be a horrible currency.

I think the chart about how well Bitcoin follows the stock-to-flow projection is interesting and one of my main considerations for future actions:

Bitcoin Halving Will be ‘Make or Break’ for Stock-to-Flow Model: PlanB

In the run-up to the halving, the well-known prediction theory is facing its biggest ever test, with its end-of-year price target now at $30,000

cointelegraph.com

There are also voices that say that there are issues with the stock-to-flow projections and a corrected version is less thrilling.

https://swissrexag.ch/wp-content/uploads/1910_Newsletter-8_stock-to-flow-model-proof-of-non-linearity_EN.pdf

Swissrex model for the valuation of Bitcoin

The stock to flow model was published in March 2019 under the pseudonym PlanB and has become the most popular valuation model for Bitcoin within a very short time. The model states that the Bitcoin valuation depends solely on Bitcoin inflation.

cvj.ch

... $100,000 reached in 2024, not 2021 ... so still fine I guess.

You are right, brother. I'm talking more about Blockchain when I say the future of finances.

Bitcoin is just the hot potato of the moment.

Sorry my incomplete communication. I should've been clearer.


PS: Thanks for the resources!

 

[Andreas Thiel]

You are right, brother. I'm talking more about Blockchain when I say the future of finances.

Bitcoin is just the hot potato of the moment.

Sorry my incomplete communication. I should've been clearer.


PS: Thanks for the resources!

Yes, the value of Blockchain technology should not be underestimated.

But I think that the future explosive grassroots disruption is not as likely as most people think.

Probably the adoption will be evolutionary and happen very much in line with the way things currently work, for example with IBM Blockchain services.
Big companies will just need to pay less for middlemen and lawyers and be able to automate processes to improve their margins.

So a case can be made that you should rather bet on the potential of Blockchain technology by buying the stocks of S&P 500 or Nasdaq ... or by trying to spot smaller companies before they get acquired by larger ones.

 

[Sethamus]

If there is a Blockchain that you could bet on if you truly believe that the current system will be eaten up by it, then go for Ethereum with its smart contracts

This is what got me to buy in. Once I started researching smart contracts the possibilities seemed endless. Wish I knew more about creating a system, I would go into the industrial and safety certification route. So many different systems in the energy sector right now. A central database ID that tracks my goverment clearance (TWIC) and the multitude of safety certs needed directly linked only to me and cannot be faked.

 

[csalvato]

The biggest problem with ETH and why BTC wins, imo, is because ETH is essentially centralized.

 

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[Kasimir]

Long-term ETH or something similar could have a chance. But in the next five to ten years I don't see ETH getting bigger than BTC. Couldn't imagine. Maybe I wrong. But certainly not investing in ETH at the moment.

 

[csalvato]

Up until this year I was 50/50 ETH/BTC. This year I traded all my ETH to BTC and went all in for 20 more years

 

[Andreas Thiel]

The biggest problem with ETH and why BTC wins, imo, is because ETH is essentially centralized.

Wow, do you have a link to a source? Never heard that before.

 

[Kasimir]

Up until this year I was 50/50 ETH/BTC. This year I traded all my ETH to BTC and went all in for 20 more years

Good move. What do you think about mid-term prediction? Will the election and a chance of a bigger crisis boost BTC or rather not?

 

[csalvato]

Wow, do you have a link to a source? Never heard that before.

Just look at how ETH works. It’s all there in the white paper.

the ETH community can shut it down at any time (and that’s what they intend to do for the upgrade to ETH2. Anything that a small group of individuals can control and shut down is centralized. Any govt agency can raid their homes and shut them down

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

I am not sure that would hold up when you compare Bitcoin and Ethereum.

A study conducted in February 2018 by Professor Emin Gün Sirer demonstrated that Ethereum is much more distributed than Bitcoin with nodes better spread out around the world. This results in the Ethereum network being more decentralized than its elder brother.

We'd probably have to dive into the details of which aspects can be controlled by whom. But I doubt that Ethereum has any conceptual flaws which are as severe as you make it sound.

 

[csalvato]

I am not sure that would hold up when you compare Bitcoin and Ethereum.

We'd probably have to dive into the details of which aspects can be controlled by whom. But I doubt that Ethereum has any conceptual flaws which are as severe as you make it sound.

If you wanted an article that breaks it down on how ETH isn't clear-cut decentralized:

Ethereum is (arguably) doomed to be centralized

I will preface this blog post by saying that my aim here is to set out and list some suggestive, not definitive, evidence I see of increased centralization in the Ethereum ecosystem. It sets out a …

prestonbyrne.com

Having more nodes is more distribution, not more decentralization. The main benefit of decentralization is that it can't be killed by cutting off a small group of nodes or parties -- and that is definitely possible in how ETH works.

 

[mguerra]

So a case can be made that you should rather bet on the potential of Blockchain technology by buying the stocks of S&P 500 or Nasdaq ... or by trying to spot smaller companies before they get acquired by larger ones.

Gotcha!

 

[Timmy C]

Cryptocurrency is a good asymmetric investment.

I expect Bitcoin to pull back to the 10 - 12k range and reach the previous ATH that we reached in 2017 in about 4 - 5 months from now.

People seem to think it's right around the corner, but I don't see it. Whenever it gets frothy like this, it has a habit of shacking people out and creating buying opportunities for those used to the swings of the market.

Be careful right now.

 

[mguerra]

I expect Bitcoin to pull back to the 10 - 12k range and reach the previous ATH that we reached in 2017 in about 4 - 5 months from now.

Would you mind sharing what makes you believe that?

 

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[Timmy C]

Would you mind sharing what makes you believe that?

If you track the fear and greed index, it has been extremely accurate over the last couple of years.
Whenever greed gets out of control, bitcoin tends to dump soon after.

I have made my trades based on the fear and greed index and have come out ahead every single time.
Of course, that might not continue, but that's the story so far.

I tend to be a contrarian anyway, and it seems to go well for me. I am not a TA expert; I'm just someone who has been invested in this market for a few years and has noticed patterns.

Whenever the moon boys come out or this thread starts peaking I know to stay put and buy after it's dumped lol.

 

[Timmy C]

The moon boyz are out and I ain't buying shit.

 

[mguerra]

If you track the fear and greed index, it has been extremely accurate over the last couple of years.
Whenever greed gets out of control, bitcoin tends to dump soon after.

I have made my trades based on the fear and greed index and have come out ahead every single time.
Of course, that might not continue, but that's the story so far.

I tend to be a contrarian anyway, and it seems to go well for me. I am not a TA expert; I'm just someone who has been invested in this market for a few years and has noticed patterns.

Whenever the moon boys come out or this thread starts peaking I know to stay put and buy after it's dumped lol.

Makes perfect sense.

Thanks for the answer, brother!

 

[James Fake]

Sorry guys, been a bit over-extending in trying to get some ecomm going.

I must be the master of luck. I followed (give or take some re-positions here or there) my prediction so far and it's done fairly spot on with overall trend (timing is off though lol): https://www.tradingview.com/chart/B...21-MOON-INCOMING-10k-to-15k-to-12k-to-25-000/ (press the Play button if you're on a browser and get a shits & giggles)

But I do plan on continuing to follow this. Piggybacking off of @Timmy C - I agree and believe we are due for a correction as well. I sold out in the mid $15,000's and plan to start trickling in the $12k range all the way down. (aiming for this anywhere from late November to mid-December)

Some stuff to add why I think a correction is coming:
1. Election is over (I think?) and so far, no civil war. I think Bitcoin and Gold may have run up due to the election uncertainty.

2. Covid vaccine making some major headway. Less chance of more stimulus, or it being a big one like last time.

3. Dollar is quite beat up, and with an election over (maybe lol), it looks like the dollar should head back up for a bit.


Few things I'm watching:
1. Senate races. Blue wave of senate, house, executive President = big stimulus = dollar hits the shits = Bitcoin goes up. GOP maintains Senate + vaccine progress = smaller to no stimulus.

2. January transition of power.


I'm eye'ing a possible ALT SEASON in January or February. Usually; its like a poor dead dribble along the bottom and then POP. Alts /btc pairings are really beat up, and looks like it may have found some bottom here. If Bitcoin can find convincing bounce off a pullback heading into 2021; I am eye'ing the top 10 alts.