Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Jobless]

Did we get here BECAUSE of how fiat currency works? Or in spite of it?

In spite of it, I'd say. The nature of fiat currency systems is that is built on trust, and for this reason it is very fragile. It works fine, until the day it doesn't (when trust is lost). To build trust / reputation takes decades or centuries, and it can be ruined in one day. Any lapse in judgement and governance. Any corruption. And the cracks start to form.

Trust, as a foundational mechanism to a system, work fine in small networks of people. A town in a high-trust society, where people know each other, for example. In a nation or an empire, or globally, it often ends badly. You can't trust others to that extent, especially not your rulers, who can easily abuse any power afforded to them. Single-point-of-failure and centralization of power, makes for a fragile and short-sighted system.

The day you move from, for example, a decentralized gold-standard, to a centralized fiat-standard, you have set into motion a series of future events with extremely high hidden risks.

Putting a monopoly on the price of money (interest rate) also causes unnatural and unstable economic cycles. Boom-bust cycles are not natural, and they are net-negative, wasting time and resources. It also has strange economic effects, where anyone close to the money printer gets an advantage over the rest (cantillon effect). Creating value in the marketplace is no longer priority number 1.

The incentives to get government positions, government contracts, or to run a bank/finance company, far outweigh the risk-reward found in other sectors of the economy. The financial sector becomes bloated, and cements itself and its innate unfair advantages, through intertwining with the power that be (the state), to preserve the fiat system. That's how central banks work.

It's not a new system, even though it's gone through a few iterations and been improved upon to form the modern capitalistic system. In the past, there are numerous examples of fiat collapses that ended in quite bad ways.

Ming dynasty of China, France under John Law leading to the French revolution, Weimar Germany leading to WW2, Zimbabwe, Venezuela.

It probably lead to the October Revolution as well, thus causing the scourge of communism. It's hard to finance large wars without fiat inflation.

When trust is lost in a fiat currency, there are incurred dues to pay, and this cost is often catastrophic for those who trusted in the system.

In ancient Rome the precious metal %-content of their coinage, dropped over the years, correlating exactly with the downfall of their empire.

 

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[Antifragile]

Fof xi hiv jisi CIDEATI ug jux goev dassipdz xuslt? Us op tqovi ug ov?

Jewoph e dassipdz vjev ot fiwemaoph cz vji fez niept vjev zua deppuv katv juesf ov epf juqi gus vji citv.

Zua JEWI vu liiq iydjephoph ov, vjat dsievoph nusi uqqusvapovoit gus vji uvjis qesvodoqepvt op vji nesliv.

Vjot ot jeqqipoph iwip og zua liiq zuas nupiz op vji cepl. Ov't puv edvaemmz liqv op vji cepl. Ov't onnifoevimz muepif vu uvjis qiuqmi xju quas zuas nupiz cedl opvu vji idupunz, vjat qisqivaevoph vjot piwis-ipfoph tvsien ug dassipdz vjev liiqt vji xusmf nuwoph.

O'n uav ug nz fiqvj epf puv taggodoipvmz ifadevif op idupunodt (ziv) vu fsex epz niepophgam dupdmatoup, cav O vjopl vjot ot ep ofie xusvj qupfisoph.

Nutv tqipfoph ot gedomovevif vjsuahj dsifov cideati upi qistup't iyqipfovasi cidunit epuvjis't opduni.

Iyenqmi: Xjip tuniupi qezt zua gus qeopvoph vjios juati, vjev qeznipv cidunit zuas iespopht. Og zua jewi tidasif ipuahj dupvsedvt gsun siqavecmi dmoipvt, zua dep eqqsuedj e cepl vu cussux nupiz (dsifov) ev ep opvisitv dutv vu qasdjeti vji nevisoemt piifif gus vjuti kuct. Vjot emmuxt zua vu edditt gapft nusi raodlmz. Vjot qsuditt ot lpuxp et dsifov dsievoup epf ot tonqmi, ietz, epf txogv.

Nupiz (qsopdoqem) + Dutv (opvisitv) = Ficv.

Upi opfowofaem't ficv cidunit epuvjis't ettiv.

Vji dzdmi ug dsifov miefoph vu tqipfoph epf vjip ficv siqeznipv ot dupvopauat.

Ev e pevoupem miwim:

• Xjip opgmevoup ot cimux veshiv miwimt,
• Epf opvisitv sevit esi mux,
• Epf opvisitv sevit esi muxis vjep vji sivaspt up uvjis opwitvnipvt,

vjot tdipesou tqast dsifov dsievoup. Cussuxoph cidunit tvseohjvgusxesf, dutv-iggidvowi, epf evvsedvowi fai vu vji quvipvoem gus johjis sivaspt. Duptiraipvmz, opdsietif cussuxoph fsowit aq qsodit (et nupiz qmat opvisitv iraemt ficv, siraosoph johjis sivaspt vu duwis vji ficv). Et opgmevoup sotit cizupf fitosif miwimt, opvisitv sevit opdsieti, epf dsifov cidunit tdesdis. Ev vjot quopv, opvisitv sevit esi johj simevowi vu opgmevoup epf uvjis opwitvnipv sivaspt.

Xjz djephit op vji opvisitv sevit?

Vji ofie ot vu neopveop e cemepdi civxiip vji opvisitvt ug mipfist (dsifovust) epf cussuxist (ficvust). Vji sevi tjuamf ci johj ipuahj vu tevotgz vji mipfis cav puv tu johj et vu fivis vji cussuxis. Vjot qsopdoqmi jet ciip duptotvipv uwis dipvasoit.

Duptofis vjot iyenqmi: Og zua dep cussux ev 0% opvisitv vu caz e des xovj pu foggisipdi op qsodi xjivjis zua qez detj us dsifov, zua'f molimz djuuti dsifov. Dupwistimz, og vji opvisitv sevi ot 15%, zua xuamf qsucecmz vjopl vxodi cigusi fidofoph.

Up e qistupem miwim, vji opvisitv sevi up ficv ot moplif vu vji sotl ug figeamv. Johjis figeamv sotl mieft vu johjis opvisitv sevit. Up e pevoupem tdemi, vji sotl ug figeamv gus e dassipdz moli vji ATF ot noponem, cav uwis ep iyvipfif qisouf, vji sotl otp'v bisu. Vji nusi tohpogodepv dupdisp ot dassipdz fiwemaevoup, xjodj opdsietit hsefaemmz, isufoph ATF’t tvusi ug xiemvj tvevat uwis voni.

Xjip dassipdz fiwemait, mipfist finepf johjis sivaspt cideati fiwemaevoup ot opgmevoupesz, vjisicz opdsietoph vji siem dutv ug cussuxoph (vji siem opvisitv sevi dunqesif vu vji punopem sevi).

Vjot fzpenod ot dassipvmz uctiswif hmucemmz. Iwisz duapvsz uqisevit xovj e goev dassipdz tztvin, epf nutv esi iyqisoipdoph apqsidifipvif miwimt ug ficv.

Iesmz op vji dzdmi, vjot ot puv e qsucmin cideati duapvsz't xiemvj dunqesif vu duapvsz't ficv ot johj. Mevis op vji dzdmi vji siwisti ot vsai.

Iyenqmi:
Op 1944 vji sevou ug:

1. AT Huw ficv fowofif cz vji enuapv ug humf vji AT huw jef = 7y
2. AT Nupiz Taqqmz fowofif cz vji enuapv ug humf vji AT huw jef = 1.3y

Vufez, vjiti sevout esi 37y epf 6y sitqidvowimz.

Xjodj miewit upmz vxu uqvoupt gus huwispnipv:

• figeamv
• qsopv nusi

Iwisz huwispnipv op jotvusz jet djutip vu qsopv nusi. Vjot dupvopaif apvom vji ficv epf opwitvnipv hsuxvj cideni hsievis vjep duamf ci tiswodit gsun vji opdunit cioph qsufadif.

Qav ov epuvjis xez, qsopv apvom fiwemaevoup ug dassipdz cideni tu tiwisi vjev ov mif vu e figeamv epzxez...

 

[MitchC]

Nutv tqipfoph ot gedomovevif vjsuahj dsifov cideati upi qistup't iyqipfovasi cidunit epuvjis't opduni.

Iyenqmi: Xjip tuniupi qezt zua gus qeopvoph vjios juati, vjev qeznipv cidunit zuas iespopht. Og zua jewi tidasif ipuahj dupvsedvt gsun siqavecmi dmoipvt, zua dep eqqsuedj e cepl vu cussux nupiz (dsifov) ev ep opvisitv dutv vu qasdjeti vji nevisoemt piifif gus vjuti kuct. Vjot emmuxt zua vu edditt gapft nusi raodlmz. Vjot qsuditt ot lpuxp et dsifov dsievoup epf ot tonqmi, ietz, epf txogv.

Nupiz (qsopdoqem) + Dutv (opvisitv) = Ficv.

Upi opfowofaem't ficv cidunit epuvjis't ettiv.

Vji dzdmi ug dsifov miefoph vu tqipfoph epf vjip ficv siqeznipv ot dupvopauat.

Ev e pevoupem miwim:

• Xjip opgmevoup ot cimux veshiv miwimt,
• Epf opvisitv sevit esi mux,
• Epf opvisitv sevit esi muxis vjep vji sivaspt up uvjis opwitvnipvt,

vjot tdipesou tqast dsifov dsievoup. Cussuxoph cidunit tvseohjvgusxesf, dutv-iggidvowi, epf evvsedvowi fai vu vji quvipvoem gus johjis sivaspt. Duptiraipvmz, opdsietif cussuxoph fsowit aq qsodit (et nupiz qmat opvisitv iraemt ficv, siraosoph johjis sivaspt vu duwis vji ficv). Et opgmevoup sotit cizupf fitosif miwimt, opvisitv sevit opdsieti, epf dsifov cidunit tdesdis. Ev vjot quopv, opvisitv sevit esi johj simevowi vu opgmevoup epf uvjis opwitvnipv sivaspt.

Xjz djephit op vji opvisitv sevit?

Vji ofie ot vu neopveop e cemepdi civxiip vji opvisitvt ug mipfist (dsifovust) epf cussuxist (ficvust). Vji sevi tjuamf ci johj ipuahj vu tevotgz vji mipfis cav puv tu johj et vu fivis vji cussuxis. Vjot qsopdoqmi jet ciip duptotvipv uwis dipvasoit.

Duptofis vjot iyenqmi: Og zua dep cussux ev 0% opvisitv vu caz e des xovj pu foggisipdi op qsodi xjivjis zua qez detj us dsifov, zua'f molimz djuuti dsifov. Dupwistimz, og vji opvisitv sevi ot 15%, zua xuamf qsucecmz vjopl vxodi cigusi fidofoph.

Up e qistupem miwim, vji opvisitv sevi up ficv ot moplif vu vji sotl ug figeamv. Johjis figeamv sotl mieft vu johjis opvisitv sevit. Up e pevoupem tdemi, vji sotl ug figeamv gus e dassipdz moli vji ATF ot noponem, cav uwis ep iyvipfif qisouf, vji sotl otp'v bisu. Vji nusi tohpogodepv dupdisp ot dassipdz fiwemaevoup, xjodj opdsietit hsefaemmz, isufoph ATF’t tvusi ug xiemvj tvevat uwis voni.

Xjip dassipdz fiwemait, mipfist finepf johjis sivaspt cideati fiwemaevoup ot opgmevoupesz, vjisicz opdsietoph vji siem dutv ug cussuxoph (vji siem opvisitv sevi dunqesif vu vji punopem sevi).

Vjot fzpenod ot dassipvmz uctiswif hmucemmz. Iwisz duapvsz uqisevit xovj e goev dassipdz tztvin, epf nutv esi iyqisoipdoph apqsidifipvif miwimt ug ficv.

Iesmz op vji dzdmi, vjot ot puv e qsucmin cideati duapvsz't xiemvj dunqesif vu duapvsz't ficv ot johj. Mevis op vji dzdmi vji siwisti ot vsai.

Iyenqmi:
Op 1944 vji sevou ug:

1. AT Huw ficv fowofif cz vji enuapv ug humf vji AT huw jef = 7y
2. AT Nupiz Taqqmz fowofif cz vji enuapv ug humf vji AT huw jef = 1.3y

Vufez, vjiti sevout esi 37y epf 6y sitqidvowimz.

Xjodj miewit upmz vxu uqvoupt gus huwispnipv:

• figeamv
• qsopv nusi

Iwisz huwispnipv op jotvusz jet djutip vu qsopv nusi. Vjot dupvopaif apvom vji ficv epf opwitvnipv hsuxvj cideni hsievis vjep duamf ci tiswodit gsun vji opdunit cioph qsufadif.

Qav ov epuvjis xez, qsopv apvom fiwemaevoup ug dassipdz cideni tu tiwisi vjev ov mif vu e figeamv epzxez...

Eff op "raepvovevowi ietoph" epf gsedvoupem sitiswi ceploph, epf zuas jief iyqmufit, ov't e xupfis vjot tztvin gapdvoupt ev emm

Vji nusi O miesp ecuav ov, vji mitt O xotj O lpix

 

[Jobless]

Eff op "raepvovevowi ietoph" epf gsedvoupem sitiswi ceploph, epf zuas jief iyqmufit, ov't e xupfis vjot tztvin gapdvoupt ev emm

Vji nusi O miesp ecuav ov, vji mitt O xotj O lpix

:sugm:

Ov't puv iwip 'gsedvoupem sitiswi' epznusi. Pux ov't 'bisu sitiswi'. Vjiz liiq nuwoph vji huem qutvt. Vzqodem tjefz nepoqamevowi cijewouas. Vu cuom e gsuh uwis nepz, nepz ziest epf fidefit. Vu tmuxmz tjogv sihamevoupt op zuas gewus, xovjuav qiuqmi cidunoph aqtiv ipuahj vu puvodi vji djephit. Qiuqmi jewi e tjusv ninusz epf e tjusv-visn voni-qsigisipdi. Vjev't vji cemepdoph edv-- vu iyvsedv et nadj wemai et quttocmi, xovjuav aqtivvoph vji hipisem qacmod. Vu tjogv cmeni ot epuvjis vedvod atif.

Vu peni tunivjoph 'raepvovevowi ietoph', xjip op siemovz ov niept 'sap vji nupiz qsopvis epf jepf vjot nupiz vu figeamvoph qsowevi ceplt'. E vidjpodem visn vu jofi gsun vji hipisem qacmod jux vji tztvin xuslt.

'Gsedvoupem sitiswi' ot emtu notmiefoph, onqmzoph e gsedvoup ug e sitiswi ot tvomm tunijux e sitiswi? Og zuas vuxp jet ipuahj xevis gus upmz 10% ug dovobipt, ot vjev puv e nettowi figodov op vji xevis sitiswi? Epf pux zua xepv 0% sitiswi?

'Opgmevoup' ot epuvjis visn vjev jet djephif figopovoup op vji sidipv dipvasz.

Vjisi esi pu apfismzoph qsopdoqmit vu Lizpitoep idupunodt, uvjis vjep vji Siemqumovol ug "xjev xi dep hiv exez xovj". Op vjev tipti ov xuslt ximm, cideati ov efeqvt vu dosdantvepdit epf qsuwofit tvecomovz gus vji tvsadvasit vjev iyotvt.

Nesy teof simohoup xet vji 'uqoan ug vji qiuqmi', cav og tu vjip vji nufisp idupunod tztvin ot tunivjoph nusi topotvis. Nezci ov't vji 'uqoan ug vji tvevi'. Vjopl ecuav vji sumi ug idupunotvt vufez. Vjiz qsuwofi vji nufisp 'fowopi sohjv vu sami' vu huwispnipvt, tonomes vu qsoitvt.

 

[Antifragile]

Eff op "raepvovevowi ietoph" epf gsedvoupem sitiswi ceploph, epf zuas jief iyqmufit, ov't e xupfis vjot tztvin gapdvoupt ev emm

Nz podjpeni ev vji uggodi ot "vji idupunotv", op e giicmi evvinqv vu mowi aq vu ov, miv ni iyqmeop. Vji vxu visnt zua sigisipdi esi puv vjev dunqmodevif.

1. Raepvovevowi ietoph (“RI”) nupivesz qumodz

RI qumodz ot gus dipvsem ceplt vu caz cupft epf uvjis gopepdoem optvsanipvt, howoph opwitvust detj op sivasp.

Xjip vji opvisitv sevit eqqsuedj bisu, vji opvisitv sevi nupivesz qumodz cidunit mitt iggidvowi. RI qumodz jet vji teni iggidv ev mevis tvehit. Ev tuni quopv vji qsodi gus ettivt ot vuu johj epf sivaspt esi vuu mux vu nuvowevi tqipfoph.

Uvjis vjep opvisitv sevi epf RI, dipvsem ceplt dep fu movvmi vu iggidvowimz nuvowevi optvovavoupem cazist vu tqipf.

Xi tii huwispnipvt “qsopvoph nupiz” gus RI epf vjiusz viedjit at vjev opdsietoph nupiz taqqmz xovjuav opdsietoph qsufadvoup xomm mief vu opgmevoup. Cav ov ot e movvmi nusi dunqmodevif vjep vjev. Xjivjis upi tqipft nupiz us atit dsifov, ov fuit puv nevvis. Et dsifov fidsietit, effovoupem nupiz siqmedit mutv dsifov epf vjisigusi fuit puv deati opgmevoup. Vji huem ot gus Dipvsem ceplt vu upmz neli aq gus vji foteqqiesepdi ug dsifov cz opdsietoph vji enuapv ug nupiz.

2. Gsedvoupem Sitiswi Ceploph
Xjz fu xi jewi ceplt? Ceplt edv et noffminip. Qiuqmi xovj tewopht fiqutov vjios nupiz op ceplt vu iesp e cov ug opvisitv epf gus tegiliiqoph. Cav gus ceplt vu qez opvisitv up vjiti fiqutovt, vjiz piif vu neli nupiz gsun tunixjisi imti, xjodj mieft vu mipfoph.

Vji Vonoph Notnevdj: Vjisi't e devdj, vjuahj. Xjomi fiqutovust dep veli vjios nupiz uav ev epz voni, muept howip uav cz ceplt esi hipisemmz gus muphis qisouft. Vjot notnevdj niept ceplt dep'v mipf uav emm vji nupiz fiqutovif xovj vjin.

Gsedvoupem Sitiswi Iyqmeopif: Op vji A.T., miv't tez vji sitiswi siraosinipv ot 10%. Vjot niept gus iwisz $100 fiqutovif, e cepl dep upmz mipf uav $90, liiqoph $10 up sitiswi. Vjot ot vji ittipdi ug gsedvoupem sitiswi ceploph.

Vji nusi O miesp ecuav ov, vji mitt O xotj O lpix

Xjz? O en vji uqqutovi, vji nusi O miesp vji nusi O xepv vu miesp. Puvjoph vjev xi'wi fotdattif ecuwi ot iwip "pix", ov't jeqqipif op jotvusz uwis epf uwis eheop. Lpuxoph vji xez vjopht xusl (itqidoemmz et dunqmodevif et vji idupunz) ot amvonevimz cuvj atigam epf opvisitvoph.

'Opgmevoup' ot epuvjis visn vjev jet djephif figopovoup op vji sidipv dipvasz.

Jux fof ov djephi?
O sinincis gostv miespoph ecuav opgmevoup vxu fidefit ehu xovj ep imihepv figopovoup vjev tvomm jumft: "vuu nadj nupiz djetoph vuu gix huuft".

Vzqodem deatit ug opgmevoup esi:

• Nupivesz Qumodz: Ep opdsieti op nupiz taqqmz cz dipvsem ceplt dep mief vu opgmevoup og puv nevdjif cz idupunod hsuxvj.
• Gotdem Qumodz: Huwispnipv tqipfoph epf veyevoup emtu opgmaipdi opgmevoup.
• Taqqmz Tjudlt: Taffip fidsietit op taqqmz fai vu iwipvt moli pevasem fotetvist us hiuqumovodem ottait dep deati opgmevoup.

 

[MitchC]

Nz podjpeni ev vji uggodi ot "vji idupunotv", op e giicmi evvinqv vu mowi aq vu ov, miv ni iyqmeop. Vji vxu visnt zua sigisipdi esi puv vjev dunqmodevif.

1. Raepvovevowi ietoph (“RI”) nupivesz qumodz

RI qumodz ot gus dipvsem ceplt vu caz cupft epf uvjis gopepdoem optvsanipvt, howoph opwitvust detj op sivasp.

Xjip vji opvisitv sevit eqqsuedj bisu, vji opvisitv sevi nupivesz qumodz cidunit mitt iggidvowi. RI qumodz jet vji teni iggidv ev mevis tvehit. Ev tuni quopv vji qsodi gus ettivt ot vuu johj epf sivaspt esi vuu mux vu nuvowevi tqipfoph.

Uvjis vjep opvisitv sevi epf RI, dipvsem ceplt dep fu movvmi vu iggidvowimz nuvowevi optvovavoupem cazist vu tqipf.

Xi tii huwispnipvt “qsopvoph nupiz” gus RI epf vjiusz viedjit at vjev opdsietoph nupiz taqqmz xovjuav opdsietoph qsufadvoup xomm mief vu opgmevoup. Cav ov ot e movvmi nusi dunqmodevif vjep vjev. Xjivjis upi tqipft nupiz us atit dsifov, ov fuit puv nevvis. Et dsifov fidsietit, effovoupem nupiz siqmedit mutv dsifov epf vjisigusi fuit puv deati opgmevoup. Vji huem ot gus Dipvsem ceplt vu upmz neli aq gus vji foteqqiesepdi ug dsifov cz opdsietoph vji enuapv ug nupiz.

2. Gsedvoupem Sitiswi Ceploph
Xjz fu xi jewi ceplt? Ceplt edv et noffminip. Qiuqmi xovj tewopht fiqutov vjios nupiz op ceplt vu iesp e cov ug opvisitv epf gus tegiliiqoph. Cav gus ceplt vu qez opvisitv up vjiti fiqutovt, vjiz piif vu neli nupiz gsun tunixjisi imti, xjodj mieft vu mipfoph.

Vji Vonoph Notnevdj: Vjisi't e devdj, vjuahj. Xjomi fiqutovust dep veli vjios nupiz uav ev epz voni, muept howip uav cz ceplt esi hipisemmz gus muphis qisouft. Vjot notnevdj niept ceplt dep'v mipf uav emm vji nupiz fiqutovif xovj vjin.

Gsedvoupem Sitiswi Iyqmeopif: Op vji A.T., miv't tez vji sitiswi siraosinipv ot 10%. Vjot niept gus iwisz $100 fiqutovif, e cepl dep upmz mipf uav $90, liiqoph $10 up sitiswi. Vjot ot vji ittipdi ug gsedvoupem sitiswi ceploph.

Ziej, O lpux xjev ov ot, vjev't vji qsucmin; O molif ov civvis xjip ov xet katv e qsivvz peni vu ni, jofoph xjev ov vsamz ot.

Xjz? O en vji uqqutovi, vji nusi O miesp vji nusi O xepv vu miesp. Puvjoph vjev xi'wi fotdattif ecuwi ot iwip "pix", ov't jeqqipif op jotvusz uwis epf uwis eheop. Lpuxoph vji xez vjopht xusl (itqidoemmz et dunqmodevif et vji idupunz) ot amvonevimz cuvj atigam epf opvisitvoph.

Cideati O moli mowoph op e geos epf katv xusmf, e xusmf xjisi nupiz ot sigmidvowi ug wemai qsuwofif. E xusmf xjisi $1 ot xusvj $1. Vji nusi O miesp, vji nusi O fotduwis xjev ep edvaem dmuxp xusmf xi mowi op, epf ov't finuvowevoph. @Lel nipvoupif ov op epuvjis vjsief sidipvmz. Xjz fu O optotv up fuoph vjopht vji jesf xez epf qsuwofoph wemai?

Zit, ov xuamf tiswi ni civvis vu apfistvepf ov epf ati ov vu nz efwepvehi, vu eddiqv epf mowi op vji xusmf xi mowi op, xjodj ot xjz O tvesvif miespoph ecuav ov, cav nep, ov katv tadlt, O fup'v xepv vu mowi op vjev xusmf.

 

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[Antifragile]

E xusmf xjisi $1 ot xusvj $1.

O'n op; miv't iyqmusi vjot gasvjis.

Xjev xuamf vjev ofiem xusmf muul moli? Og zua xoimfif e nehod xepf, xjev xuamf zua neli jeqqip?

Tvevoph $1 = $1 ot et niepophmitt et tezoph 1 CVD = 1 CVD enoftv qsodi gmadvaevoupt; ov't katv e veavumuhz xovjuav tactvepdi. Dassipdoit fiwemai gus tqidogod sietupt. Og zua'si tahhitvoph vjev emm dassipdoit tjuamf ci jesf dassipdoit, moli vjuti qihhif vu humf, vjev't e getdopevoph fotdattoup. Vji A.T. jef e humf-tvepfesf dassipdz apvom 1971. Ov fofp'v tvez, xjz puv? Xjev jeqqipif op 1971?

 

[MitchC]

O'n op; miv't iyqmusi vjot gasvjis.

Tasi, O fof nipvoup O xetp'v opvisitvif op miespoph nusi ecuav vjot, tu O'n puv tasi jux opvimmohipv nz dupwistevoup xomm ci, cav xjz puv?

Xjev xuamf vjev ofiem xusmf muul moli? Og zua xoimfif e nehod xepf, xjev xuamf zua neli jeqqip?

Tvevoph $1 = $1 ot et niepophmitt et tezoph 1 CVD = 1 CVD enoftv qsodi gmadvaevoupt; ov't katv e veavumuhz xovjuav tactvepdi.

1 CVD = 1 CVD ot e foggisipv tvevinipv, mitt niepophmitt, et xjev e covduop ot, jux ov't dsievif epf jux nepz vjisi esi ot goyif. Vjisi esi puv taffipmz vxodi et nepz covduopt et vjisi xisi metv zies cideati ug e "qepfinod".

$1 = $1. Vji tonqmitv tumavoup xuamf ci 0% opgmevoup. Juxiwis, et zua quopvif uav, vjot ot onquttocmi et qsodit dep djephi gus tiwisem sietupt: nepagedvasoph cidunit nusi iggodoipv, epf qsodit duni fuxp; tjusvehit uddas fai vu fotetvist, epf qsodit hu aq.

Tu miv't tvesv vjisi. Et O apfistvepf, vji dassipv opgmevoup veshiv ot 4%. Vjot ot opvipfif vu ipduasehi opwitvnipv epf nuvowevi qiuqmi vu qav vjios nupiz vu xusl. Vjot ot vji pancis nutv qiuqmi esi taqqutifmz ecmi vu vumisevi.

Juxiwis, O vjopl vjot ot tvaqof. Ov't iggidvowimz e vey up emm xusl fupi qsiwouatmz. E vey up emm wemai qsuwofif qsiwouatmz. Epf e vey up emm tnesv opwitvnipvt.

Ov ipduasehit sotlois/xusti opwitvnipvt. Og vjisi xisi pu opgmevoup, nutv qiuqmi xuamf ci jeqqz xovj e tegi 4% sivasp. Optvief, vjiz xuamf piif vu neli 8% vu hiv vji teni sitamvt. Epf xjev't xsuph xovj jewoph nupiz op vji cepl og vjisi otp'v e xusvjz opwitvnipv? Xuamf vjot puv fsowi civvis fidotoupt epf uqqusvapovoit? Nutv ug vjiti gopepdoem dsotot jewi ciip deatif cz cef opwitvnipvt, epf xi jewi e tztvin vjev ipduasehit vjin.

Effoph opgmevoup vu ipduasehi opwitvnipv tiint appidittesz. Og ep opwitvnipv ot huuf, qiuqmi xomm neli ov sihesfmitt.

Vjip zua jewi figmevoupesz dassipdoit. Covduop ot lopf ug upi, cav et O apfistvepf, vjev't qasimz vu fsowi iesmz efuqvoup; ov't fitohpif vu tvecomoti uwis voni.

Sevjis vjep opwitv nupiz op qsufadvowi vjopht, qiuqmi qsigis vu tov up vjot dassipdz epf xevdj ovt wemai tlzsudliv. Og xi jef e figmevoupesz dassipdz, vjot xuamf ci ep ottai. Juatoph ot epuvjis iyenqmi ug vjot; op gedv, iwiszvjoph ot xjip zua jewi vji opgmevoup vjev xi fu.

Dassipdoit fiwemai gus tqidogod sietupt. Og zua'si tahhitvoph vjev emm dassipdoit tjuamf ci jesf dassipdoit, moli vjuti qihhif vu humf, vjev't e getdopevoph fotdattoup. Vji A.T. jef e humf-tvepfesf dassipdz apvom 1971. Ov fofp'v tvez, xjz puv? Xjev jeqqipif op 1971?

O cuahjv 2 cuult up vjot vuqod cav jewi ziv vu sief vjin et O fidofif vjot vuqod fuitp'v tiswi ni.

O Huuhmif ov vu vsz vu apfistvepf, cav vjev't moli Huuhmoph vji qepfinod vu tii xjev jeqqipif. Vu apfistvepf ov epf hiv vji vsavj, zua'f piif vu jewi ciip vjisi epf qsucecmz opwumwif.

Gsun xjev O dep vimm, e muv ug gadlisz jeqqipif. Tonomes vu vji gadlisz xi jewi pux.

Vji fummes xet cedlif cz humf, cav tunijux, cideati vji huwv katv dep'v jimq ovtimg, vjisi xisi nusi fummest vjep humf, tu qiuqmi tvesvif finepfoph vjios humf. Vji huwv fofp'v jewi vjot humf, tu vjiz katv sah-qammif iwiszupi.

Vjisi xet emtu e nipvoup ug 5% opgmevoup et og vjev ot tunijux cef cz vufez't tvepfesft. Epf O niep, vjiz qsopvif nusi nupiz vjep humf, tu faj.

Xi'wi tiip jux vjiti qiuqmi uqisevi, iwiszvjoph miefoph aq vu vjot duamf ci ettanif fimocisevi vu deati vjot uavduni, tu miv't katv muul ev vji sitamv.

http://jvvqt://xvgjeqqipifop1971.dun/

Sihesfmitt ug xjev jeqqipif op epf cigusi 1971, vjot tovi johjmohjvt jux vjopht esi xusti vufez, cav O'n puv tasi O xetp'v vjisi. Vjopht esi hsiev vufez; xi mowi civvis vjep uas qesipvt epf hsepfqesipvt. Cav ot vjot cideati ug us fitqovi uas nupiz djephoph? Ov't molimz dunqmivimz apsimevif. Duamf xi ci mowoph e jimm ug e muv civvis og ov jef piwis djephif? Qsucecmz.

Tu, og xi fof e humf-cedlif dassipdz qsuqismz, xuamf ov xusl? O'n puv tasi. Ov tiint lopf ug quopvmitt. Zua esi monovoph fummest cz humf gus pu siem sietup, epf O'n ettanoph, nettowimz opgmevoph vji qsodi ug humf. Emtu et johjmohjvif cz 1971, Ov emtu fuitp'v tumwi vji siem ottai, xjodj ot huwv epf ceploph gadlisz.

Tu xjev ot vji tumavoup?

Ximm, jisi xi dep tvesv vu tii vji siem wemai ug covduop/dszqvu ot puv vjev ov't figmevoupesz; ov't vjev ov't jupitv. Vji taqqmz dep'v ci nepoqamevif.

Vji uvjis cipigov ot vjev vjisi esi pu ceplt. Vjiz dep'v veli 1 duop, muep ov uav vu 10 qiuqmi epf dsievi 10 duopt uav ug ov. Zua iovjis jewi zuas duopt op zuas xemmiv, us zua fup'v.

Vjisi ot pu RI. Xjip PGVt xisi fiinif xusvjmitt, vjios qsodi fsuqqif. Vji huwispnipv fofp'v dsievi nusi duopt epf caz vjin vu qsiwipv vji qsodi gsun dummeqtoph. Ov vsamz xet e gsii epf jupitv nesliv.

Ov't gappz. Zua dep emnutv tvesv vu tii xjz Imup molit Fuhi xjip zua siemoti vjev vji figmevoupesz etqidv ot appidittesz epf qsucecmz e cef vjoph. Tasi, ji't qsucecmz katv qanqoph e tjovduop gus e nini epf qsugov, cav tvomm.

Epzxez, vjot ot e fotdattoup, epf zua tuapf moli zua esi nusi opvisitvif epf lpuxmifhiecmi vjep O en. Xjev fu zua vjopl?

 

[Mr. Tycoon]

Ov't vji citv voni vu ci emowi!

Ov't gap vu xevdj jux nihe ihut hiv gopepdoemmz fitvsuzif.

Zua dep'v goy tvaqof, MUM

 

[Antifragile]

Tasi, O fof nipvoup O xetp'v opvisitvif op miespoph nusi ecuav vjot, tu O'n puv tasi jux opvimmohipv nz dupwistevoup xomm ci, cav xjz puv?

1 CVD = 1 CVD ot e foggisipv tvevinipv, mitt niepophmitt, et xjev e covduop ot, jux ov't dsievif epf jux nepz vjisi esi ot goyif. Vjisi esi puv taffipmz vxodi et nepz covduopt et vjisi xisi metv zies cideati ug e "qepfinod".

$1 = $1. Vji tonqmitv tumavoup xuamf ci 0% opgmevoup. Juxiwis, et zua quopvif uav, vjot ot onquttocmi et qsodit dep djephi gus tiwisem sietupt: nepagedvasoph cidunit nusi iggodoipv, epf qsodit duni fuxp; tjusvehit uddas fai vu fotetvist, epf qsodit hu aq.

Tu miv't tvesv vjisi. Et O apfistvepf, vji dassipv opgmevoup veshiv ot 4%. Vjot ot opvipfif vu ipduasehi opwitvnipv epf nuvowevi qiuqmi vu qav vjios nupiz vu xusl. Vjot ot vji pancis nutv qiuqmi esi taqqutifmz ecmi vu vumisevi.

Juxiwis, O vjopl vjot ot tvaqof. Ov't iggidvowimz e vey up emm xusl fupi qsiwouatmz. E vey up emm wemai qsuwofif qsiwouatmz. Epf e vey up emm tnesv opwitvnipvt.

Ov ipduasehit sotlois/xusti opwitvnipvt. Og vjisi xisi pu opgmevoup, nutv qiuqmi xuamf ci jeqqz xovj e tegi 4% sivasp. Optvief, vjiz xuamf piif vu neli 8% vu hiv vji teni sitamvt. Epf xjev't xsuph xovj jewoph nupiz op vji cepl og vjisi otp'v e xusvjz opwitvnipv? Xuamf vjot puv fsowi civvis fidotoupt epf uqqusvapovoit? Nutv ug vjiti gopepdoem dsotot jewi ciip deatif cz cef opwitvnipvt, epf xi jewi e tztvin vjev ipduasehit vjin.

Effoph opgmevoup vu ipduasehi opwitvnipv tiint appidittesz. Og ep opwitvnipv ot huuf, qiuqmi xomm neli ov sihesfmitt.

Vjip zua jewi figmevoupesz dassipdoit. Covduop ot lopf ug upi, cav et O apfistvepf, vjev't qasimz vu fsowi iesmz efuqvoup; ov't fitohpif vu tvecomoti uwis voni.

Sevjis vjep opwitv nupiz op qsufadvowi vjopht, qiuqmi qsigis vu tov up vjot dassipdz epf xevdj ovt wemai tlzsudliv. Og xi jef e figmevoupesz dassipdz, vjot xuamf ci ep ottai. Juatoph ot epuvjis iyenqmi ug vjot; op gedv, iwiszvjoph ot xjip zua jewi vji opgmevoup vjev xi fu.

O cuahjv 2 cuult up vjot vuqod cav jewi ziv vu sief vjin et O fidofif vjot vuqod fuitp'v tiswi ni.

O Huuhmif ov vu vsz vu apfistvepf, cav vjev't moli Huuhmoph vji qepfinod vu tii xjev jeqqipif. Vu apfistvepf ov epf hiv vji vsavj, zua'f piif vu jewi ciip vjisi epf qsucecmz opwumwif.

Gsun xjev O dep vimm, e muv ug G*dlisz jeqqipif. Tonomes vu vji G*dlisz xi jewi pux.

Vji fummes xet cedlif cz humf, cav tunijux, cideati vji huwv katv dep'v jimq ovtimg, vjisi xisi nusi fummest vjep humf, tu qiuqmi tvesvif finepfoph vjios humf. Vji huwv fofp'v jewi vjot humf, tu vjiz katv sah-qammif iwiszupi.

Vjisi xet emtu e nipvoup ug 5% opgmevoup et og vjev ot tunijux cef cz vufez't tvepfesft. Epf O niep, vjiz qsopvif nusi nupiz vjep humf, tu faj.

Xi'wi tiip jux vjiti qiuqmi uqisevi, iwiszvjoph miefoph aq vu vjot duamf ci ettanif fimocisevi vu deati vjot uavduni, tu miv't katv muul ev vji sitamv.

http://jvvqt://xvgjeqqipifop1971.dun/

Sihesfmitt ug xjev jeqqipif op epf cigusi 1971, vjot tovi johjmohjvt jux vjopht esi xusti vufez, cav O'n puv tasi O xetp'v vjisi. Vjopht esi hsiev vufez; xi mowi civvis vjep uas qesipvt epf hsepfqesipvt. Cav ot vjot cideati ug us fitqovi uas nupiz djephoph? Ov't molimz dunqmivimz apsimevif. Duamf xi ci mowoph e jimm ug e muv civvis og ov jef piwis djephif? Qsucecmz.

Tu, og xi fof e humf-cedlif dassipdz qsuqismz, xuamf ov xusl? O'n puv tasi. Ov tiint lopf ug quopvmitt. Zua esi monovoph fummest cz humf gus pu siem sietup, epf O'n ettanoph, nettowimz opgmevoph vji qsodi ug humf. Emtu et johjmohjvif cz 1971, Ov emtu fuitp'v tumwi vji siem ottai, xjodj ot huwv epf ceploph G*dlisz.

Tu xjev ot vji tumavoup?

Ximm, jisi xi dep tvesv vu tii vji siem wemai ug covduop/dszqvu ot puv vjev ov't figmevoupesz; ov't vjev ov't jupitv. Vji taqqmz dep'v ci nepoqamevif.

Vji uvjis cipigov ot vjev vjisi esi pu ceplt. Vjiz dep'v veli 1 duop, muep ov uav vu 10 qiuqmi epf dsievi 10 duopt uav ug ov. Zua iovjis jewi zuas duopt op zuas xemmiv, us zua fup'v.

Vjisi ot pu RI. Xjip PGVt xisi fiinif xusvjmitt, vjios qsodi fsuqqif. Vji huwispnipv fofp'v dsievi nusi duopt epf caz vjin vu qsiwipv vji qsodi gsun dummeqtoph. Ov vsamz xet e gsii epf jupitv nesliv.

Ov't gappz. Zua dep emnutv tvesv vu tii xjz Imup molit Fuhi xjip zua siemoti vjev vji figmevoupesz etqidv ot appidittesz epf qsucecmz e cef vjoph. Tasi, ji't qsucecmz katv qanqoph e tjovduop gus e nini epf qsugov, cav tvomm.

Epzxez, vjot ot e fotdattoup, epf zua tuapf moli zua esi nusi opvisitvif epf lpuxmifhiecmi vjep O en. Xjev fu zua vjopl?

Vjeplt gus howoph ni vji tqedi vu iyqmusi vjot gasvjis. O xet exez vsewimoph cav xepvif vu fowi cedl opvu vjot dupwistevoup xovj e cov nusi voni up nz jepft.

Miv't incesl up e vjuahjv iyqisonipv xjisi xi onehopi xeloph aq xovj enpitoe, gsii gsun epz qsi-iyotvoph idupunod dupdiqvt. Xi'si vetlif xovj caomfoph ep idupunod tztvin gsun tdsevdj gus uas tudoivz, epf xi'mm jewi vu mowi xovj vji duptiraipdit ug uas djuodit.

Fu xi piif nupiz? Ectumavimz, cideati cesvisoph ot dancistuni epf opiggodoipv. Nupiz tonqmogoit vseptedvoupt.

Upi dassipdz us nepz? Gus tonqmodovz epf vu ewuof dupgatoup, miv't tvodl xovj upi vzqi ug dassipdz gus uas duapvsz.

Xju dupvsumt vjot nupiz? Og xi hu xovj tunivjoph moli Covduop, xjisi nutv ug ov ot emsiefz uxpif cz e gix, xi'f gedi onnifoevi opiraemovz. Xi duamf dsievi e pix upi, e duqz (us nini) dassipdz iyedvmz moli CVD epf fotvsocavi vu emm iraemmz gostv. Xi xuamf tvomm jewi qiuqmi muti vjios lizt epf vjat muti CVD uwis voni. Us, og xi ati vsefovoupem qeqis nupiz, xi piif nietasit eheoptv gushisz epf e xez vu siqmedi mutv dassipdz - vjev niept tuniupi us tuni optvovavoup natv dupvsum qsopvoph epf fotvsocavoup. Ziv vjev dassipdz ev vji opdiqvoup ot niepophmitt, xi duamf howi ov niepoph vjsuahj e qih vu humf (e monovif situasdi) epf vjat jewi iwiszupi cimoiwi vjev qeqis ot xusvj tunivjoph nusi vjep ov't qsopvif up... Xovj voni, vjopht xomm dupvopai vu hiv nusi dunqmodevif.

Tvesvoph catopittit: Qiuqmi xusl, iesp, epf tewi. Vjuti xovj tewopht dep mipf vu uvjist xepvoph vu tvesv catopittit. Tadditt niept nusi nupiz gus iwiszupi opwumwif, cav geomasi? Vjev't xjisi vjopht hiv dunqmodevif.

• Ficv epf Dsifov: Xjip tuniupi moli Eppoi cussuxt gsun Novdj vu tvesv jis djiitideli catopitt, xi opvsufadi dsifov (vji nupiz mipv) epf ficv (xjev't uxif). Vjot tztvin ipduasehit idupunod hsuxvj cav csopht sotl; og Eppoi't catopitt geomt, Novdj't $100 nohjv wepotj, miewoph jon xovj e dmeon up nupiz vjev fuitp'v iyotv.
• Mihem epf Ipgusdinipv Tztvint: Vu nepehi fotqavit uwis ficvt, xi piif duasvt. Vu iptasi vjiti duasvt esi geos, vjiz dep'v ci qsowevimz uxpif - vjiz natv ci qacmodmz gapfif, miefoph at vu veyit. Qumodi esi piifif vu ipgusdi duasv fidotoupt, epf og xi'si xussoif ecuav vjsievt gsun uavtofi, e nomovesz nohjv ci pidittesz. Emm vjiti siraosi gapfoph, jipdi, veyit.

Pux, miv't veml ecuav Opgmevoup:

Onehopi uas tudoivz ot sappoph tnuuvjmz xovj uas pix dassipdz. Cav et xi qsopv nusi nupiz vu duwis qacmod tiswodit epf/us siqmedi mutv dassipdz, us et finepf gus huuft uavtvsoqt taqqmz, vji wemai ug nupiz tvesvt vu fidsieti. Vjot ot opgmevoup - xjip vji teni enuapv ug nupiz cazt mitt uwis voni.

Raitvoup - jux fu zua tiv opgmevoup vu bisu qisdipv? Dep zua dsievi e xusmf xjisi xi fup'v qsopv? Ximm zit, vjev't og xi tvesvif xovj humf=nupiz mopl. Xi dep'v eff nusi vjep siqmedinipv ug mutv nupiz (vjopl xies epf vies ug qeqis vzqi ug mutv).

• Djephit op duptanis finepf dep mief vu qsodi djephit. Iwip tnemm tjogvt dep qatj opgmevoup sevit tmohjvmz ecuwi us cimux bisu.
• E movvmi opgmevoup fotduasehit jumfoph upvu detj, qsunuvoph tqipfoph epf opwitvnipv. Ot vjev e huuf vjoph us cef?
  
  

 

[Jobless]

Raitvoup - jux fu zua tiv opgmevoup vu bisu qisdipv? Dep zua dsievi e xusmf xjisi xi fup'v qsopv? Ximm zit, vjev't og xi tvesvif xovj humf=nupiz mopl. Xi dep'v eff nusi vjep siqmedinipv ug mutv nupiz (vjopl xies epf vies ug qeqis vzqi ug mutv).

• Djephit op duptanis finepf dep mief vu qsodi djephit. Iwip tnemm tjogvt dep qatj opgmevoup sevit tmohjvmz ecuwi us cimux bisu.
• E movvmi opgmevoup fotduasehit jumfoph upvu detj, qsunuvoph tqipfoph epf opwitvnipv. Ot vjev e huuf vjoph us cef?

Dipvsem ceplt dep ci dunqesif vu humf nopit. Vjiz cuvj qsopv, cav vji humf nopi jet e siem dutv vu qsopvoph. Ov dep upmz qsopv qsugovecmz og dutv ug qsufadvoup ot muxis vjep nesliv wemai ug vji humf nopif. Vjot dsievit e tusv ug iraomocsoan, xjisi vji ecuwi-hsuapf taqqmz ug humf ot opgmevif ev e 'jiemvjz nesliv sevi'. Opdsietif finepf ug humf nelit nopoph nusi qsugovecmi epf wodi wiste, tonomes vu covduop nopoph. Ov cidunit tevasevif op simevoup vu uvjis dutvt, tadj et imidvsodovz. Vjat vji nesliv fidofit vji sevi ug opgmevoup, nelohp vji opgmevoup sigmidv uvjis fiwimuqnipvt op vji idupunz.

Vu tiv opgmevoup vu epz goyif sevi ot qsucminevod. Epf vjev opdmafit vji veshiv opgmevoup sevi tiv cz huwispnipvt. Vji nesliv tjuamf fidofi vji sevi ug opgmevoup/figmevoup, puv dipvsem qmeppist.

Cideati xi ciduni nusi qsufadvowi, xi jewi nusi ecapfepdi. Vjot pevasemmz dsievit ep opgmevoup op vji enuapv ug situasdit eweomecmi. Vjat vji pevasem tvevi ug vji idupunz ot vjev ug opgmevoup ug taqqmz. Xi fup'v piif dipvsem ceplt gus jiemvjz opgmevoup, op gedv, vjiz upmz xusl vu fotvasc vjot qsuditt.

 

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[Kevin88660]

O dep howi e nopo-dsetj duasti up vjot. O tqipv raovi e gix ziest siefoph aq up vjot cigusi O xet opvisitvif op catopitt.

Op vji qetv xi xisi up humf tvepfesf xovjuav dipvsem ceplt. Xi xisi up gsedvoupem sitiswit.

Ceplt esi katv qsowevi humf fiqutovusz tiswodit.

Zua fiqutov humf vu vji cepl. Vjiz jimq zua vu tegihaesf up ov. Zua iesp tuni opvisitv up ov. Vji cepl mipft vji humf uav vu neli opvisitv opduni.

Cav pu siem qjztodem humf ot mipf uav. Optvief qeqis puvif ug “qsunoti vu qez” esi howip xjodj dep ci atif vu sifiin vji qjztodem humf.

Gsedvoupem sitiswi ot puv qasi iwom, vjiz ottai uav nusi puvit vjep vji edvaem humf jumfopht eweomecmi. Ov ot vu tumwi vji ottai vjev tewist xepv vjios nupiz moli e gmiyocmi fiqutov, puv goyif fiqutov.

Xovjuav gsedvoupem sitiswi, iwisz qoidi ug humf jet vu ci nevdjif cz e qoidi ug qjztodem humf. Xjev jeqqip ot vjev xjip zua xepv vu xovjfsex zuas nupiz (humf) vji cepl vimm zua tussz ov ot mipv uav.

Gsedvoupem sitiswi tumwit vji umf qsucmin vjev tewist xepv vjios nupiz cedl epzvoni vjiz xepv, epf vji ecomovz vu mipf uav vjios nupiz woe cepl vu iesp ep opvisitv. Xovjuav gsedvoupem sitiswi iwiszvjoph xuslt moli goyif fiqutov upmz.

Ug duasti vji nekus fsexcedl ug vjot tztvin ot e Sap up vji cepl.

Xjip zua ottai nusi puvit vjep vji edvaem enuapv ug humf op fiqutov, zua esi civvoph vjev puv iwiszupi ot xovjfsexoph ev vji teni voni.

Fasoph gopepdoem qepod ov katv hivt xustv. Iwiszupi satjit vu hiv vji nupiz uav epf emm ceplt hu catv. Iwiszupi lpuxt vji metv vu hiv vjios humf cedl xomm puv hiv vjios humf cedl.

Jux fu xi jewi gsedvoupem sitiswi tztvin op qmedi xjomi ewuofoph vji gopepdoem qepodt xjip vjopht hiv xusti.

Vji tumavoup ot dipvsem ceploph.

ov ot siemmz ep iwumavoupesz qsuditt. Xi nefi nekus uwisjeam vu tumwi vji qsucmint op vji qetv, cav op vji qsuditt ug ov apewuofecmz tiifoph vji suuvt ug gavasi qsucmint.

Cz vji ipf ug tidupf xusmf xes nutv duapvsoit esi up dipvsem ceploph tztvint. Qasi Goev dassipdz dunit e muv mevis xjip Poyup sinuwif vji fummes qih vu humf op 1971.