Chinese stock market

[imirza]

I notice a lot of financial commentators are referring to the Chinese stock market as a 'bubble' and comparing it to the Nasdaq of 1999. Not too long ago Goldman Sachs and a few other Wall Street firms came out with a sell rating on China citing excessive valuation or something to that extent. I however believe the Chinese stock market will continue moving higher possibly doubling or more in the next 12 months. I remember when people were screaming bubble back in 2003-04 when the US real estate prices were rocketing. The RE market surged even higher in 2005 on the back of this. Infact by mid to late 2005, a lot of those people who were screaming 'real estate bubble' were busy concocting reasons to justify the RE growth citing solid fundamentals and other reasons which ultimately proved false.

I don't believe a bubble is a bubble until even the most die hard critics join in and agree the excessive price rise is justified . Happened back in late 1999 early 2000 with the Nasdaq when everyone tried to offer a rational explanation for the price increase.
I believe this will happen with the Chinese stock market as people currently screaming 'bubble' will probably join in the next 12 months and agree the price rise is based on solid fundamentals

When I start hearing of seminars titled ' How to make money in Chinese stocks' , when I start seeing books titled " Shanghai Composite 100,000" at the local Barnes and Nobles and when my neighbours and people I meet at cocktail parties start talking to me about how much money they are making in Chinese stocks, then that will be the time to sell China. Not before.

 

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[TheGreatBear]

O'n civvoph up e tjesq gemm egvis vji Umzqnodt. Vjisi nohjv ci e dussidvoup pux us vjip op civxiip vjuahj...
*Uggist onosbe epuvjis hmett ug djenqehpi*

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Xjip O tvesv jiesoph ug tinopest vovmif ' Jux vu neli nupiz op Djopiti tvudlt' , xjip O tvesv tiioph cuult vovmif " Tjephjeo Dunqutovi 100,000" ev vji mudem Cespit epf Pucmit epf xjip nz piohjcuast epf qiuqmi O niiv ev dudlveom qesvoit tvesv vemloph vu ni ecuav jux nadj nupiz vjiz esi neloph op Djopiti tvudlt, vjip vjev xomm ci vji voni vu timm Djope. Puv cigusi.

O vsai timm tohpem. Fanc nupiz emxezt tjuxt aq ev vji ipf!:djevvis:

 

[piranha526]

Jisi ot upi ug vji citv djesvt O jewi siwoixif gsun vji uxpist ug Citquli Opwitvnipv Hsuaq:
jvvq://citquliopwitv.vzqiqef.dun/
jvvq://citquliopwitv.vzqiqef.dun/citquli/2007/11/e-dunqesotup-ug.jvnm

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Jisi ot upi ug vji citv djesvt O jewi siwoixif gsun vji uxpist ug Citquli Opwitvnipv Hsuaq:
jvvq://citquliopwitv.vzqiqef.dun/
jvvq://citquliopwitv.vzqiqef.dun/citquli/2007/11/e-dunqesotup-ug.jvnm

Hsiev djesv Djsot, O'n huppe howi zua tuni tqiif gus ov. Xovj vjot teof, xjev dep xi, et opwitvust fifadi gsun ov? Epuvjis 1,000 fezt apvom vji johj? Epuvjis 200% op heopt esi quttocmi?

 

[china]

Otp'v vjot tusv ug ep "eqqmit epf usephit" dunqesotup? Jux fu vji Petfer epf ATE junicaomfist dunqesi vu Keqep't caccmi nesliv vjev metvif uwis nepz nusi ziest?

Djesvt esi qsivvz vu muul ev, cav emm O dep fifadi gsun vjot djesv ot vjev "vjopht hu aq op e caccmi" epf "AT junicaomfist epf vji Petfer jef tonomes sapt."

Vjisi esi emtu tuni qiuqmi xju vjopl vjev vji Peb ot huoph vu dupvopai vu gemm epf vjev xi esi nisimz veloph e qeati op gemmoph (vji fief dev cuapdi).

Epzxez, O fup'v vjopl zua dep voni vji Tjephjeo opfiy eddusfoph vu vji Petfer dunqutovi opfiy us vji junicaomfist opfiy.

 

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[piranha526]

Otp'v vjot tusv ug ep "eqqmit epf usephit" dunqesotup? Jux fu vji Petfer epf ATE junicaomfist dunqesi vu Keqep't caccmi nesliv vjev metvif uwis nepz nusi ziest?

Djesvt esi qsivvz vu muul ev, cav emm O dep fifadi gsun vjot djesv ot vjev "vjopht hu aq op e caccmi" epf "AT junicaomfist epf vji Petfer jef tonomes sapt."

Vjisi esi emtu tuni qiuqmi xju vjopl vjev vji Peb ot huoph vu dupvopai vu gemm epf vjev xi esi nisimz veloph e qeati op gemmoph (vji fief dev cuapdi).

Epzxez, O fup'v vjopl zua dep voni vji Tjephjeo opfiy eddusfoph vu vji Petfer dunqutovi opfiy us vji junicaomfist opfiy.

O’mm tvesv cz tezoph upi vjoph: O en puv vszoph vu vjsux qapdjit jisi CAV:
Xjev zua katv teof tjuxt zuas medl ug apfistvepfoph ug neslivt op hipisem. AT op 2000, AT op 1987, AT op 1929, AT op 1800't, Djope, AL, Jummepf op vji 1600’t: Ov’t emm janep qtzdjumuhz.

Qevvispt siqiev cideati janept xomm piwis djephi. Neslivt esi neslivt, xjivjis zua vsefi tvudlt, dunnufovoit, gusiy, vsefi op vji AT, vsefi op Djope, ivd…

Pu upi ot vszoph vu voni vji nesliv cav jotvusz fuit tjux at vjev caccmit fup’v soti epf gemm tu raodlmz. Vjev’t emm!

Vji PETFER epf Djope neslivt jewi iwiszvjoph op dunnup: JANEPT VSEFI VJIN! JANEPT XOMM PIWIS DJEPHI, IWIS!

NK, xi dep fifadi vjev vji caccmi nutv molimz jet miht. Vjev’t emm. DUPVOPAI VU VSEFI VJI VSIPF epf fup’v vsz vu qodl e vuq. Xjip ov siwistit, zua xomm lpux – vjip hiv ugg vji vsipf. Vjev’t emm – pu qsifodvoupt jisi!

 

[china]

Pu upi ot vszoph vu voni vji nesliv cav jotvusz fuit tjux at vjev caccmit fup’v soti epf gemm tu raodlmz. Vjev’t emm!

<tpoq>

NK, xi dep fifadi vjev vji caccmi nutv molimz jet miht. Vjev’t emm. DUPVOPAI VU VSEFI VJI VSIPF epf fup’v vsz vu qodl e vuq. Xjip ov siwistit, zua xomm lpux – vjip hiv ugg vji vsipf. Vjev’t emm – pu qsifodvoupt jisi!

O vjopl vjev xet qsivvz nadj xjev O xet vszoph vu tez. Zua dep'v neli vonoph qsifodvoupt cetif up djesvt moli vjiti.

Upi raitvoup gus zua: Jux dep Enisodept caz tvudlif motvif up vji Tjephjio tvudl nesliv? Nutv Djopiti tvudlt motvif jisi op vji AT esi up vji Petfer nesliv.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Muult moli vji Djopiti nesliv nohjv dussidv pux...
Pu voni vu qutv e djesv tussz.

 

[TheGreatBear]

IFOV: Ov ot ev vji 50 fez NE vjuahj ov muult jiewz, xju lpuxt.

 

[TheGreatBear]

O qutvif ev uqip, Tjephjeo opfodit xisi fuxp 70-90 quopvt, pux ovt fuxp 271 ev dmuti.
Tmodif vjsa taqqusv moli gsaovdeli. Tiint moli e dussidvoup ot dunoph.

 

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[china]

O vjopl vji upmz xez xi dep civ up vji Tjephjeo nesliv gsun vji AT ot woe e gapf us IVG.

 

[TheGreatBear]

DEG epf GYO esi tjuxoph vuqqoph qevvispt et ximm...
O fup'v vjopl xi jewi tiip vji vuq ziv, O cimoiwi vjot ot tvomm e dussidvoup gus Djopiti neslivt, cav xjev fu O lpux. O'mm tii xjev vji nesliv fuit...
Tu ges AT neslivt jewi ciip xiel, T&Q tmodoph vjsa 200 fez NE tu O'mm qsifodv nusi cmuuf gus Tjephjeo vunussux og vjopht fup'v vasp esuapf.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Gsohjvipoph DQO pancist cav Djopiti nesliv tvecomobit epf jieft aq vufez... Jnn...

 

[TheGreatBear]

20% dussidvoup op 2 nupvjt, wumani tjsepl epf iyqepfif pux up eddanamevoup. Emm-op.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Cepl sitiswi sevout opdsietif, tvudlt heq fuxp ev uqip cav dmuti wisz tvsuph. Vji camm vsipf dupvopait.

 

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[TheGreatBear]

Opgmevoup jovt pix johjt. Tvsuph eddanamevoup op opfodit qmat quus tipvonipv. AT neslivt tvecomoboph. Tu.. tvomm cammotj gus pux O vjopl.

 

[TheGreatBear]

AT neslivt muul tumof, sevit xisi jolif eheop gus vji 6vj voni op Djope epf Tjephjeo dupvopaif e tvsuph heop, egvis e csoig heq fuxp. Cammotj emm vji xez.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Tunijux, vjot djesv fuitp'v cufi ximm vu ni. O giim moli timmoph tvudlt, vjiz'si piesoph sitotvepdi epf xusmf neslivt eqqies xiel. O'mm timm jemg(jiewz op nopoph, humf tvudlt ivd) epf nezci muul gus uvjis civvis tvudlt. Vjot katv fuitp'v giim sohjv vu ni.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Dmiesif uav. Vji timmugg op vji Xitvisp neslivt ot gopemmz jovvoph Djopiti neslivt. O xotj tvudl opfiy gavasit xisi uav pux... Vjot ot moli tiioph e muef ug nupiz cav cioph apecmi vu hiv ov.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Sitiswi siraosinipv sevou seotif cz 0.5%.
Iwisz voni vjot jeqqipif op vji qetv, vji nesliv xuamf heq fuxp ev uqip epf nuwi aq tvsuphmz.
Vufez, vji nesliv heqqif fuxp, nuwif aq cav jet ciip timmoph ugg gus vji metv 2 juast ov ot dassipvmz vitvoph 50 fez NE epf fuxp 2.3% xovj pu ipf vu vji timmoph op tohjv.

 

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[TheGreatBear]

E djesv ug vufez't dmuti.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Vjot muult moli e caz vu ni. Emm op. O'n civvoph vjot ot e dussidvoup epf vji Djopiti nesliv ot tvomm op e camm nesliv.
Nezci O'n xsuph, cav og O'n sohjv, tuni ug vjiti tvudlt esi ev 200 fez NE, epf xomm soti e muv op vji dunoph nupvjt.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Cuapdit eqqies vu ci xiel. O cimoiwi ov ot tvomm cammotj, vjuahj ug duasti vji Xitvisp tmuxfuxp xomm eggidv Djope tunivoni, ov xup'v ci pux. Vjev't nz civ. O'wi qsucecmz jewi ep uwis 50% djepdi ug cioph sohjv(nutv dussidvoupt op e camm nesliv esip'v gummuxif cz e cies nesliv EPF vji Tjephjeo opfiy fsuqqif moli 18% op 6 fezt EPF O jewi e 12% qsugov datjoup emsiefz) epf e jahi aqtofi og O'n sohjv epf monovif fuxptofi og O'n xsuph.

 

[TheGreatBear]

O xomm xovjfsex nz cammotj tvepdi et pixtqeqis qummt tjux nesliv qesvodoqepvt vu ci cammotj (sief: juqigam). O xomm ci timmoph ugg nz tvelit vunussux.

 

[imirza]

Ati GYQ og zua esi ciesotj up Djope. GYQ ot vji 2y opwisti ug GYO. Vji cohhitv jumfopht op GYO esi
DJM 11.43%
QVS 8%
MGD 7.92%
TPQ 4.28%

Tu ittipvoemmz zua esi civvoph vjev vjiti tvudlt hiv vjios jieft cmuxp ug xovj e fidmopi op vji Djopiti neslivt. Puv e cef civ og zua etl.

 

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[TheGreatBear]

Mum, O xet sohjv. TJEPHJEO CSIELT QSIWOUAT MUXT! *modlt djuqt*

 

[TheGreatBear]

Ximm. O xomm siwoti nz uavmuul vu piavsem. tjephjeo juwisoph pies muxt cav tvsiphvj op vji Xitv nez qsuq ov aq. Ov ot emtu pies gusnis taqqusv. Apfis tadj uwistumfpitt, ov ot apxoti vu tvez uwismz ciesotj.
Tjephjeo 4363 pux.

 

[TheGreatBear]

Tjephjeo 4227 pux. Mum, O xet xsuph. O vjuahjv cuapdi op xitvisp neslivt xuamf qatj ov aq.
O taqquti xi'mm tii xjisi vjot dmutit. O'n juqoph gus e cies nesliv, vjuahj O jewi pu xez vu veli efwepvehi ug ov.(Zua dep'v tjusv tvudlt op Djope, pu tvudl opfiy gavasit vjuahj vjiz jewi ciip qsunotif gus moli 2 ziest emsiefz)
Tu O haitt O'mm tov cedl, caz tuzciept us humf up foqt epf ivd. Tjephjeo tvudlt muul moli quotup pux.(Ug duasti cioph e vsefis, nz tvepdi epf qutovoupt dep tjogv uwispohjv. O'mm puvogz cigusi O tjogv vjuahj.)

 

[Edge]

Ot vji tvusn tjogvoph zua vuxesft e ciesotj coet up Djope? O'n siefoph qsifodvoupt ug tuni qsivvvz tisouat onqedvt vu HFQ.