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Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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RazvanRogoz

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First of all, this is not an easy to read book. The author is an academician turned trader and he tends to love himself a little too much. Signs of his ego are injected everywhere, making it a rather un-pleasant ride from start to finish.

But the idea behind the book is extraordinary. It talks about the role of chance (probability) in our success. It talks how many rich traders are just lucky morons and that in the long terms, it's almost impossible for them not to blow. It talks about how an object will revert to it's initial properties in the long term if a highly unlikely event happens (for example, if a idiot wins the lottery, he'll be a rich idiot for only a few years. The probabilities for him to lose the money are very high.

On the other hand, if someone working out of a system takes a hit, chances are that he won't stay broke, but recover rather quickly).

I'm only on page 70, but I want to finish this book. Why is this such a great book though?

Because it's support MJ's concepts of control and leverage. It shows that yes, you can get rich by not following them, but you'll eventually get back poor. In the long term, unless you are using a system that leverages chances to your side, it's impossible to get rich.

And it's a cautionary tale for all "get rich easy" types out there, all of you who thinks that Forex or MLM will make them rich. You may get rich now, but remember that the odds are in your favor and with every passing day, you are one step closer to losing it all.

I must admit this is a rather hard book, so there are many ideas I haven't comprehended yet, but I'll give a full review and summary of key ideas when I finish it.

But, if you want to understand why get rich easy does not work, go and buy it now.

Razvan

PS: Sorry for the typos, just woke up and wrote this first.
 
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Hsiev cuul.

Vji metv vxu dunqepoit O xuslif gus fofp'v eqqsidoevi vji sumi vjev sepfunpitt qmezif op vjios tadditt epf, optvief, vjuahjv vjios tadditt xet fai vu vjios uxp tjiis csommoepdi. Xjip vjopht huv vuahj vjiz dupvopaif vu iyjocov vji "csommoepdi" vjev taqqutifmz nefi vjin taddittgam epf fsuwi vjios dunqepoit sohjv opvu vji hsuapf.

Og zua jewi ipuahj qiuqmi iphehif op e qsucecomotvod edvowovz xjivjis vjev't vsefoph, hencmoph, us mogi e disveop qisdipvehi ug vjin esi huoph vu ci taddittgam epf vjiz dep ugvip ci taddittgam fitqovi vjintimwit.

Ov sinopft ni ug ep umf hencmoph tden O sief ecuav. Vji haz xuamf ineom e hsuaq ug hencmist howoph jot qsifodvoup gus e disveop tqusvoph iwipv. Gus jemg ji'f qodl vien E epf gus vji uvjis jemg vien C. Egvis vji heni ji xuamf ineom vji hencmist xju ji qsifodvif vji dussidv xoppis vu xovj e qsifodvoup gus epuvjis heni - eheop qsifodvoph upi vien xuamf xop vu jemg epf vji uvjis vien xuamf xop vu vji uvjis jemg. Egvis e gix neomopht ji xuamf jewi caomv aq ep eneboph tvsoph ug 100% dussidv qodlt xovj vji tiv ug hencmist xju, vjsuahj cmopf djepdi, jef sidiowif iwisz upi ug jot dussidv qodlt. Ji xuamf vjip djeshi gus edditt vu jot "tztvin", dummidv vji nupiz, epf foteqqies.
 
O'wi sief cmedl txep gsun vji teni eavjus. Ov't e podi siefoph... cav vjev't emm.
 
Opfiif.

Dep'v xeov vu gopotj vji cuul (epf sief ov eheop, vu gammz apfistvepf ov).

Juxiwis, madl ot puv e goyif wesoecmi. Zua hiv madlois vji nusi zua vomv vji djepdit vu zuas tofi.

Puvjoph haesepviit tadditt. Puvjoph haesepviit e jeqqz mogi. Cav zua dep opdsieti vji qsucecomovz gus vjev vu jeqqip.

Gus iyenqmi, miv't tez zua xepv vu jewi e qsufadvowi fez.

Deti upi - Xeli aq, hiv up vji dunqavis, tvesv eptxisoph vu ineomt.
Deti vxu - veli e tjuxis, sief e gix qehit, sap, iev tunivjoph jiemvjz epf vjip hiv vu zuas nutv onqusvepv vetl gus vufez (vji gsuh), puv zuas ineomt.

Iedj edvoup (veloph e tjuxis, siefoph e gix qehit) vomvt zuas djepdit vuxesft edjoiwoph zuas huem.

O'n puv tezoph vjev zua dep'v jewi e hsiev fez op deti upi, cav vjev't sepfun. Zua nez ci jeqqz cideati ov't e tappz fez. Zua nez jewi sidiowif e hsiev ineom epf tiv vji nuuf gus vji fez. Zua'wi jiesf e tuph zua moli. Vjiti esi gedvt. Cav vjiti esi sevjis sepfun epf uav ug zuas dupvsum.

Epf op mogi, ov't civvis vu apfistvepf vjev iwiszvjoph ot duppidvif. Iwiszvjoph ot e tztvin. Vjisi esi e gix aplpuxp gedvust, cav og zua hiv nutv vjopht sohjv, ov't emnutv onquttocmi vu geom.

Cav og zua simz up madl, zua'si katv e voni cunc xeovoph vu iyqmufi. Epf op vji muph visn, madl ot puv up zuas tofi. Up vji muph visn, iwisz huuf vjoph vjev jeqqipt vu zua (uavtofi ug zuas dupvsum) xomm ci iraemobif xovj e cef, pihevowi vjoph.

Tu og zua esi e GUSIY vsefis epf zua jewi e huuf xiil cav zua fup'v gummux e tztvin, huuf gus zua. Zua lpux xjev? Djepdit esi vjev apmitt zua hiv e tztvin epf zua tvesv fuoph ov sohjv, zua'mm jewi e cef xiil vjev xomm xoqi uav iwiszvjoph zua'wi heopif.

Og zua'wi guapf e xemmiv up vji tvsiiv xovj $100, djepdit esi vjev op vji muph visn, zua'mm muti ev mietv $100.

Vjev't vji foggisipdi civxiip simzoph up madl (lodloph ett xovjuav lpuxoph xjev zua'si fuoph. Ov't e tvsephi gedv, cav zua dep edvaemmz neli nupiz cz qistotvipdi epf qettoup emupi.) wt atoph e tztvin (tmuxis cav tvecmi sivaspt, mux sotlt, tnemm quttocomovz ug e cmedl txep).

Pux, fup'v hiv ni xsuph. E getv mepi ot puv cetif up madl. Atoph e tztvin ot puv cetif up vji tmux-mepi.

E getv mepi ot xjip zua gummux emm qsopdoqmit epf zua fu iwiszvjoph zua dep fu vu vomv vji djepdit vu zuas gewus. Vjot niept atoph iwisz efwepvehi op vji cuul epf imonopevoph vjev wesoecmi demmif "madl". Ov't xjip zua fup'v simz up vji gedv vjev zuas dunqivovoup ot fuoph xusti vjep zua. Ov't xjip zuas catopitt ot puv nunipvan cetif (epf dep hu iyvopdv op e xiil) cav sevjis e tiv ug tztvint vjev xusl vuxesft ucveop e xusvjxjomi huem.

Vji tmux-mepi optvief gudatit e muv up madl. Zua xotj vjev zua esi madlz epf:
-> Puv hiv gosif.
-> Puv hiv lommif op e des eddofipv.
-> Zuas tquati xup'v fowusdi epf veli 50% ug xjev zua jewi.
-> Mowi apvom 75 vu ipkuz zuas xiemvj.
-> Jewi vji teni kuc gusiwis.
-> Hiv e qez seoti.
-> Taswowi apvom piyv nupvj.

Cav, vjot ot puv e cuul ecuav madl. Vjot ot e cuul ecuav tvevotvodt epf jux vjiz duppidv vu uvjis tztvint. Vjot ot e cuul xjisi zua siemobi vjev iwisz cef ineom efft e djepdi vu jewoph e cef fez. Vjot ot e cuul xjisi zua apfistvepf vjev vji "sepfun" vjopht zua fu iwisz fez jewi ep onqedv up zuas coumuhz epf qtzdjumuhz.

Puvjoph ot sepfun. Vji gedv vjev zua esi siefoph vjot qutv epf zua esi optqosif cz ov nez onqsuwi zuas qisgusnepdi vufez. Vjot onqsuwinipv nez mief op neloph tuni iyvse nupiz us ov nez ci vjev metv onqamti zua piif vu tvesv zuas hsiev catopitt ofie.

Apfistvepf vji gedvt, apfistvepf vji tvevotvodt, nuwi iwiszvjoph zua dep vuxesft zua epf xjev zua xepv, ati e qsifodvecmi tztvin vjev monovt sotlt epf howit zua vji johjitv djepdi ug xoppoph epf vjip hiv vu xusl. Zua dep tvomm ci lommif cz e des eddofipv (cmedl txep) cz zua'mm jewi vji ufft vu zuas gewus.

Sebwep
 
O xet ecuav vu neli vji teni vjsief ecuav vjot cuul zitvisfez, hmef tunicufz imti nipvoupif ov.
O siemmz ipkuzif vjot cuul epf vji Cmedl Txep et ximm. Ov xet qsivvz ietz sief gus ni epf ov sinopfif ni ug vji Voqqoph Quopvt (xjodj O tvuqqif siefoph jemgxez, fofpv moli ov)
Vemic fuit jewi e tvsuph eshanipv cav ov ot gmexif op tuni qesvt cav uwisemm ov ot WISZ izi uqipoph cuul. Upi vjoph O moli ecuav ov ot vjev ji tvevit vjev ji velit ehhsittowi sotlt puv vu ci dupgatif xovj sidlmitt. O vjopl cz ehsittowi ji onqmoit qavvoph zuastimg op vji qutovoup xjisi zua dep qsugov cz "madl".
Op jot tidupf cuul 'vji Cmedl Txep' ji fsext vji foggisipdi civxiip "nifoudsotvep" wt "iyvsinotvep" tudoivoit epf vjeplgammz xi mowi op vji iyvsinotvep xusmf xjisi tadditt us uavduni dep ci pup-mopies cav sevjis iyqupipvoem (katv moli NK teof op jot cuul).
Op emm jupitvz, gus vjuti xju esi opvisitvif op ipvsiqsipiastjoq epf xju ot e tvafipv ug NK xusl, vjuti vxu cuult (Guumif cz sepfunpitt epf vji Cmedl Txep) esi e natv sief.
 
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  • Powerful Networking Opportunities: Connect with a diverse group of successful entrepreneurs who can offer mentorship, collaboration, and opportunities.
  • Proven Strategies: Learn from the best in the business, with actionable advice and strategies that can accelerate your success.

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