Luck is for schmucks, THIS is for winners.

[MJ DeMarco]

From the Life in the Fastlane newsletter...

I swear, if I hear another wannabe entrepreneur justify dropping out of college because Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates dropped out, I'll vomit. 
Read on and discover why these two examples mean nothing, especially if you think dropping out of Johnson County Community College with no education, experience, or skills is a good idea.

In the vast cosmic ballet, there's a pervasive illusion that luck is the master choreographer.

Hang out on Reddit or some other mainstream media rag, and you'll be bludgeoned repeatedly with the idea that luck is in control. I mean, why bother trying to win your best life when luck lurks around every corner, thwarting your best attempts?

But what if I told you there's a powerful tool, honed by centuries of thinkers that can smack luck in the face and let you take charge of your destiny?


Ladies and gentlemen, meet my little friend called conditional probability.


Okay, I know what you're thinking. "Probability? Isn't that some dry, dusty stuff I tried to forget after high school?" Don't groan; bear with me. Let's rip off that crusty academic veneer and reveal the jewel inside. If you can master this concept, it's a game-changer.


Conditional probability allows you to make decisions armed with the statistical equivalent of a lightsaber, cutting through ambiguity and randomness with surgical precision.


Let's break it down.

Conditional probability, in simple terms, is the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already taken place.

It's like the chain reaction, dominoes effect.

If one domino falls, it affects the probability of the next one tumbling. Unlike a coin flip where the prior flip means nothing on the next, conditional probability CHANGES the odds of some event or occurrence happening later. Can you imagine? YES, your actions change the odds.

Now, let's leave the theoretical realm and dive into the practical.

The fact that Gates or Zuckerberg dropped out of college and became billionaires isn't relevant...

What is relevant is the conditional probability that they were brilliant enough to be accepted into Harvard in the first place.

That huge condition—acceptance to Harvard—is what precipitated the higher likelihood of success.


A study by the Harvard Business Review found that Harvard graduates are more likely to become millionaires than graduates of other universities. The study found that 21% of Harvard graduates become millionaires, compared to only 8% of graduates from other universities. Using Gates and Zuck as justification to drop out of your community college is like thinking you can mimic Warren Buffet's success by drinking 6 Cokes a day.


Here's another example I've been beating at The Fastlane Forum like a drum: riding a motorcycle in traffic versus a car. Statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reveal that motorcyclists, per mile driven, are 28 times more likely than passenger car occupants to die in a traffic crash.


In this scenario, choosing to ride a motorcycle—the action which alters the probabilities—significantly increases your chances of being involved in a fatal accident. Or worse, you suffer a traumatic brain injury (TBI) and lose your ability to speak, see, or hear. Again, you see the confluence of conditional probability based on your simple actions—actions you ultimately control.

Think about smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. If you're a chain smoker, the likelihood of developing lung cancer is much higher than a non-smoker. The American Cancer Society states smokers are 15 to 30 times more likely to get lung cancer or die from lung-related diseases than non-smokers.

That's a huge difference, right?

This is conditional probability at play. Your decision to smoke alters the likelihood of you getting lung cancer.



Here's another example...

If you're hanging out at Reddit all day complaining about capitalism, luck, and how the system has beaten you down like a rented mule, that behavior is a conditional probability.

I will bet the farm that you will never get rich, much less succeed beyond the average Doomer who makes a day of complaining.


On the contrary, if you spend a few hours a week at The Fastlane Forum learning about new business strategies or have read and applied my books and the CENTS Framework, that, too, is a conditional probability. While the average person's odds of wealth might be 1%, due to conditional probability, yours might be 22%.

Bottomline, you can control your actions which impact conditional probabilities, and if you can do that, guess what? You can minimize the impact of luck in your life.

Here are some other simple random actions in our lives that impact conditional probabilities:

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Action Poor dietary habits Reading often Hanging out with losers Hanging out with winners Drunk driving Marrying after 4 dates Spend hours on social media Spend hours on Reddit	Probabilities YOU change Heart disease, diabetes Success and failure Living like a loser, tragic outcomes Access to opportunities, mentality Tragic outcomes Divorce Depression, anxiety Fixed mindset, external locus

By understanding the impact of our choices on other probabilities, YOU can make better decisions.

It's not about eliminating luck or randomness—these are inherent aspects of life.

Instead, it's about minimizing their influence and maximizing the power of deliberate choice and the odds they alter.

 Applying this knowledge, you can interact with the world as a sequence of conditional probabilities rather than a string of random events.

This perspective shift allows you to recognize that seemingly isolated actions often have far-reaching effects, altering the probabilistic landscape of your future.



Your entire life is about the application of conditional probability. While you might not see the probabilities or know their exact numbers, they exist. Recognizing conditional probability might not ensure that you win every time, but it gives you the edge over those who choose to leave their fate in the hands of randomness. 

Yes, your decisions make a difference.

The question is, will you make them matter and punch luck in the face? Or will you be a Doomer and let luck leash you to its whims?

Act wisely and manipulate the odds in your favor; act poorly and set them against you.

~ MJ

If you are a member of Fastlane and do NOT receive this newsletter, you can opt in via your Privacy settings.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[The-J]

Zuckerberg dropped out having already built Facebook. Bill Gates dropped out after getting an agreement to provide software to Microsoft's first OEM provider.

Do people not read the stories before basing major life decisions on them? If you drop out of school while having nothing going on, your odds are slim. If you drop out of school because you've already started something that's taking off, your odds are good.

 

[Mark Horrocks]

From the Life in the Fastlane newsletter...

I swear, if I hear another wannabe entrepreneur justify dropping out of college because Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates dropped out, I'll vomit. 
Read on and discover why these two examples mean nothing, especially if you think dropping out of Johnson County Community College with no education, experience, or skills is a good idea.

In the vast cosmic ballet, there's a pervasive illusion that luck is the master choreographer.

Hang out on Reddit or some other mainstream media rag, and you'll be bludgeoned repeatedly with the idea that luck is in control. I mean, why bother trying to win your best life when luck lurks around every corner, thwarting your best attempts?

But what if I told you there's a powerful tool, honed by centuries of thinkers that can smack luck in the face and let you take charge of your destiny?


Ladies and gentlemen, meet my little friend called conditional probability.


Okay, I know what you're thinking. "Probability? Isn't that some dry, dusty stuff I tried to forget after high school?" Don't groan; bear with me. Let's rip off that crusty academic veneer and reveal the jewel inside. If you can master this concept, it's a game-changer.


Conditional probability allows you to make decisions armed with the statistical equivalent of a lightsaber, cutting through ambiguity and randomness with surgical precision.


Let's break it down.

Conditional probability, in simple terms, is the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already taken place.

It's like the chain reaction, dominoes effect.

If one domino falls, it affects the probability of the next one tumbling. Unlike a coin flip where the prior flip means nothing on the next, conditional probability CHANGES the odds of some event or occurrence happening later. Can you imagine? YES, your actions change the odds.

Now, let's leave the theoretical realm and dive into the practical.

The fact that Gates or Zuckerberg dropped out of college and became billionaires isn't relevant...

What is relevant is the conditional probability that they were brilliant enough to be accepted into Harvard in the first place.

That huge condition—acceptance to Harvard—is what precipitated the higher likelihood of success.


A study by the Harvard Business Review found that Harvard graduates are more likely to become millionaires than graduates of other universities. The study found that 21% of Harvard graduates become millionaires, compared to only 8% of graduates from other universities. Using Gates and Zuck as justification to drop out of your community college is like thinking you can mimic Warren Buffet's success by drinking 6 Cokes a day.


Here's another example I've been beating at The Fastlane Forum like a drum: riding a motorcycle in traffic versus a car. Statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reveal that motorcyclists, per mile driven, are 28 times more likely than passenger car occupants to die in a traffic crash.


In this scenario, choosing to ride a motorcycle—the action which alters the probabilities—significantly increases your chances of being involved in a fatal accident. Or worse, you suffer a traumatic brain injury (TBI) and lose your ability to speak, see, or hear. Again, you see the confluence of conditional probability based on your simple actions—actions you ultimately control.

Think about smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. If you're a chain smoker, the likelihood of developing lung cancer is much higher than a non-smoker. The American Cancer Society states smokers are 15 to 30 times more likely to get lung cancer or die from lung-related diseases than non-smokers.

That's a huge difference, right?

This is conditional probability at play. Your decision to smoke alters the likelihood of you getting lung cancer.

View attachment 49755

Here's another example...

If you're hanging out at Reddit all day complaining about capitalism, luck, and how the system has beaten you down like a rented mule, that behavior is a conditional probability.

I will bet the farm that you will never get rich, much less succeed beyond the average Doomer who makes a day of complaining.


On the contrary, if you spend a few hours a week at The Fastlane Forum learning about new business strategies or have read and applied my books and the CENTS Framework, that, too, is a conditional probability. While the average person's odds of wealth might be 1%, due to conditional probability, yours might be 22%.

Bottomline, you can control your actions which impact conditional probabilities, and if you can do that, guess what? You can minimize the impact of luck in your life.

Here are some other simple random actions in our lives that impact conditional probabilities:

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Action Poor dietary habits Reading often Hanging out with losers Hanging out with winners Drunk driving Marrying after 4 dates Spend hours on social media Spend hours on Reddit	Probabilities YOU change Heart disease, diabetes Success and failure Living like a loser, tragic outcomes Access to opportunities, mentality Tragic outcomes Divorce Depression, anxiety Fixed mindset, external locus

By understanding the impact of our choices on other probabilities, YOU can make better decisions.

It's not about eliminating luck or randomness—these are inherent aspects of life.

Instead, it's about minimizing their influence and maximizing the power of deliberate choice and the odds they alter.

 Applying this knowledge, you can interact with the world as a sequence of conditional probabilities rather than a string of random events.

This perspective shift allows you to recognize that seemingly isolated actions often have far-reaching effects, altering the probabilistic landscape of your future.



Your entire life is about the application of conditional probability. While you might not see the probabilities or know their exact numbers, they exist. Recognizing conditional probability might not ensure that you win every time, but it gives you the edge over those who choose to leave their fate in the hands of randomness. 

Yes, your decisions make a difference.

The question is, will you make them matter and punch luck in the face? Or will you be a Doomer and let luck leash you to its whims?

Act wisely and manipulate the odds in your favor; act poorly and set them against you.

~ MJ

If you are a member of Fastlane and do NOT receive this newsletter, you can opt in via your Privacy settings.

View attachment 49753

Yes I totally agree I started reading your books when I quit the rat race 6 years ago. Was it easy to leave the working 9-5 land no it was not and it was hell! What is funny I use to know what day it was when I was a salaried employee now they are all the same I use to live for Friday night and hated Sundays. I do not clock watch anymore!

 

[xShepherdx]

Great post @MJ DeMarco, thanks for sharing.

I recently watched this video from Alex Hormozi and, while not directly related to conditional probability, I feel it echoed much of the same sentiment.

One quote I took away from the video was "Volume negates luck".

Basically, if you do enough of the right activity, your odds of success go WAY up.

Imagine someone who only applied for 1 job vs another person that applied for 1,000 jobs in that same time period. One of these people is almost certain to get a job, while the other is relying on luck. The only change was the volume of activity.

When paired with conditional probability, volume can become a very powerful tool for building OR destroying your life.

To use your smoking example: As the volume of smoking increases (more cigarettes per day), you become less "lucky" and move towards a 100% chance of getting lung cancer or otherwise dying from the habit.

The same is true for business activity. As your volume of productive work/input goes up, you begin to remove luck and move towards a certainty of success. If you spend your time partying or playing video games, things begin to shift the opposite way.

For me, the lesson here is to recognize the things in life that, when done in a large enough volume, will actually remove the need for luck entirely. These should be done or avoided as much as possible.

Or, to put it differently: By increasing the volume of good activities and decreasing the volume of bad activities we can hugely impact our chances of success via conditional probability. Because we're using the right levers more frequently, luck is no longer relied on. Instead, probability begins to shift in our favor.

 

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[Tarzaan Sinclair]

Zuckerberg dropped out having already built Facebook. Bill Gates dropped out after getting an agreement to provide software to Microsoft's first OEM provider.

Do people not read the stories before basing major life decisions on them? If you drop out of school while having nothing going on, your odds are slim. If you drop out of school because you've already started something that's taking off, your odds are good.

Exactly.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Zuckerberg dropped out having already built Facebook. Bill Gates dropped out after getting an agreement to provide software to Microsoft's first OEM provider.

Do people not read the stories before basing major life decisions on them? If you drop out of school while having nothing going on, your odds are slim. If you drop out of school because you've already started something that's taking off, your odds are good.

That too is another conditional probability...

Gates/Zuck...

A) Got accepted to Harvard and
B) Already created a business with demand and value...

If any Joe Blow repeats those two feats, going to Harvard and creating a business while enrolled and is already growing, for the love of Christ, "drop-out of college."

 

[jdm667]

Awesome post. There are lots of ways to use conditional probability to increase your odds of success.

• Go through CENTS before you decide on a business. Make sure it follows at least some of the commandments right now (and have an idea of how you can solve the rest later).
• Once you decide on a business, talk to someone who has already done it (maybe in a different city, so you are not competing with them directly).
• Think long-term, not short-term. Don't sacrifice quality or cut corners - otherwise, word will spread and your reputation will precede you.
• Commit to your business and prepare for the desert of desertion. There will be bad days, weeks, or months. If you are ready for it, you will survive where others will quit.

 

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[SunnyN]

Then there's the power of perseverance. If one keeps on hitting continously to make his/her business successful, it is more probable to succeed, because we are developing skills, experience and efforts to make better decisions ahead. This improves the probability of success.

 

[socaldude]

Have you guys heard of Newcombs Paradox?

I do believe the predictor/mathematical oracle in the game theory decision-making process game is a metaphor for our demons.

Will you determine the outcome of the game or will the predictor?

Do you choose both boxes, the opaque one containing $1M or $0 AND the transparent box containing the extra $1K?

Are you going to change as a person? Or will you stop the behavior that's holding you back?

I do believe the answer to the paradox is that we have to the potential to change the future now. Luck and fatalism is BS!

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Have you guys heard of Newcombs Paradox?

What a rabbit hole...

Newcomb's paradox - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

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[Ing]

is Reddit no social media?

 

[Kak]

I swear, if I hear another wannabe entrepreneur justify dropping out of college because Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates dropped out, I'll vomit. 
Read on and discover why these two examples mean nothing, especially if you think dropping out of Johnson County Community College with no education, experience, or skills is a good idea.

But Zuck did it!

 

[Scheltus Croatia]

From the Life in the Fastlane newsletter...

I swear, if I hear another wannabe entrepreneur justify dropping out of college because Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates dropped out, I'll vomit. 
Read on and discover why these two examples mean nothing, especially if you think dropping out of Johnson County Community College with no education, experience, or skills is a good idea.

In the vast cosmic ballet, there's a pervasive illusion that luck is the master choreographer.

Hang out on Reddit or some other mainstream media rag, and you'll be bludgeoned repeatedly with the idea that luck is in control. I mean, why bother trying to win your best life when luck lurks around every corner, thwarting your best attempts?

But what if I told you there's a powerful tool, honed by centuries of thinkers that can smack luck in the face and let you take charge of your destiny?


Ladies and gentlemen, meet my little friend called conditional probability.


Okay, I know what you're thinking. "Probability? Isn't that some dry, dusty stuff I tried to forget after high school?" Don't groan; bear with me. Let's rip off that crusty academic veneer and reveal the jewel inside. If you can master this concept, it's a game-changer.


Conditional probability allows you to make decisions armed with the statistical equivalent of a lightsaber, cutting through ambiguity and randomness with surgical precision.


Let's break it down.

Conditional probability, in simple terms, is the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already taken place.

It's like the chain reaction, dominoes effect.

If one domino falls, it affects the probability of the next one tumbling. Unlike a coin flip where the prior flip means nothing on the next, conditional probability CHANGES the odds of some event or occurrence happening later. Can you imagine? YES, your actions change the odds.

Now, let's leave the theoretical realm and dive into the practical.

The fact that Gates or Zuckerberg dropped out of college and became billionaires isn't relevant...

What is relevant is the conditional probability that they were brilliant enough to be accepted into Harvard in the first place.

That huge condition—acceptance to Harvard—is what precipitated the higher likelihood of success.


A study by the Harvard Business Review found that Harvard graduates are more likely to become millionaires than graduates of other universities. The study found that 21% of Harvard graduates become millionaires, compared to only 8% of graduates from other universities. Using Gates and Zuck as justification to drop out of your community college is like thinking you can mimic Warren Buffet's success by drinking 6 Cokes a day.


Here's another example I've been beating at The Fastlane Forum like a drum: riding a motorcycle in traffic versus a car. Statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reveal that motorcyclists, per mile driven, are 28 times more likely than passenger car occupants to die in a traffic crash.


In this scenario, choosing to ride a motorcycle—the action which alters the probabilities—significantly increases your chances of being involved in a fatal accident. Or worse, you suffer a traumatic brain injury (TBI) and lose your ability to speak, see, or hear. Again, you see the confluence of conditional probability based on your simple actions—actions you ultimately control.

Think about smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. If you're a chain smoker, the likelihood of developing lung cancer is much higher than a non-smoker. The American Cancer Society states smokers are 15 to 30 times more likely to get lung cancer or die from lung-related diseases than non-smokers.

That's a huge difference, right?

This is conditional probability at play. Your decision to smoke alters the likelihood of you getting lung cancer.

View attachment 49755

Here's another example...

If you're hanging out at Reddit all day complaining about capitalism, luck, and how the system has beaten you down like a rented mule, that behavior is a conditional probability.

I will bet the farm that you will never get rich, much less succeed beyond the average Doomer who makes a day of complaining.


On the contrary, if you spend a few hours a week at The Fastlane Forum learning about new business strategies or have read and applied my books and the CENTS Framework, that, too, is a conditional probability. While the average person's odds of wealth might be 1%, due to conditional probability, yours might be 22%.

Bottomline, you can control your actions which impact conditional probabilities, and if you can do that, guess what? You can minimize the impact of luck in your life.

Here are some other simple random actions in our lives that impact conditional probabilities:

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Action Poor dietary habits Reading often Hanging out with losers Hanging out with winners Drunk driving Marrying after 4 dates Spend hours on social media Spend hours on Reddit	Probabilities YOU change Heart disease, diabetes Success and failure Living like a loser, tragic outcomes Access to opportunities, mentality Tragic outcomes Divorce Depression, anxiety Fixed mindset, external locus

By understanding the impact of our choices on other probabilities, YOU can make better decisions.

It's not about eliminating luck or randomness—these are inherent aspects of life.

Instead, it's about minimizing their influence and maximizing the power of deliberate choice and the odds they alter.

 Applying this knowledge, you can interact with the world as a sequence of conditional probabilities rather than a string of random events.

This perspective shift allows you to recognize that seemingly isolated actions often have far-reaching effects, altering the probabilistic landscape of your future.



Your entire life is about the application of conditional probability. While you might not see the probabilities or know their exact numbers, they exist. Recognizing conditional probability might not ensure that you win every time, but it gives you the edge over those who choose to leave their fate in the hands of randomness. 

Yes, your decisions make a difference.

The question is, will you make them matter and punch luck in the face? Or will you be a Doomer and let luck leash you to its whims?

Act wisely and manipulate the odds in your favor; act poorly and set them against you.

~ MJ

If you are a member of Fastlane and do NOT receive this newsletter, you can opt in via your Privacy settings.

View attachment 49753

I just read the newsletter about Bill Gates and Zuckerberg having dropped out. That doesn't mean the same to anyone else, because anyone else is not Gates and Zuckerberg. The circumstances (they created by their own initiative previously) made it possible for them to step out of High-end Harvard education. Which qualified them in the first place. It is either flip a coin or set up your first dominos. I will stick to the dominos. Which I didn't in my past by the way. And changing course all the time, starting something new before a chosen venue has come to fruition is like flipping a coin. It is in consistency over a serious period of time, that things really are given the chance to grow. This is a fundamental re-write of a lot of my opinions about education. This changes my approach to our children's education. One decision is to connect our daughter with the education she needs for something she already expressed an interest in. So we/she will work diligently to get the right entry levels. Beyond that, it is her decision also obviously. Presenting someone with this domino effect makes it possible for someone like our daughter, to choose more wisely. Thank you MJ DeMarco for this insight. (will apply on myself too) I have some domains in mind where it should become effective. Immediately.

 

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[Consolation]

Zuckerberg dropped out having already built Facebook. Bill Gates dropped out after getting an agreement to provide software to Microsoft's first OEM provider.

And Elon Musk dropped out of PHD program before starting Zip2. He completed 2 degrees too.

So to any high schoolers lurking: Go to college.

 

[Modew]

Then there's the power of perseverance. If one keeps on hitting continously to make his/her business successful, it is more probable to succeed, because we are developing skills, experience and efforts to make better decisions ahead. This improves the probability of success.

This echo something similar my dad told me when I was struggling post high-school and in university. He didn't have an issue with me dropping out and going to a college, trade school etc, but I had to walk out with a skill (otherwise it wasn't going to be paid for). He also asked for a 5-10-15 year trajectory on a good "job/business" so the skill had to be one of relevance.

I feel in cases where people have dropped out is because they acquired the right skills and it had served its purpose. Its just not a cool/dramatic way of looking at it. The inverse is also true. People can get degrees upon degrees (I know some who have) and yet have no real world applications or skills (or they haven't figured out how to apply them).

 

[SunnyN]

This echo something similar my dad told me when I was struggling post high-school and in university. He didn't have an issue with me dropping out and going to a college, trade school etc, but I had to walk out with a skill (otherwise it wasn't going to be paid for). He also asked for a 5-10-15 year trajectory on a good "job/business" so the skill had to be one of relevance.

I feel in cases where people have dropped out is because they acquired the right skills and it had served its purpose. Its just not a cool/dramatic way of looking at it. The inverse is also true. People can get degrees upon degrees (I know some who have) and yet have no real world applications or skills (or they haven't figured out how to apply them).

That's true. Although, the probabilities increase a bit more if we get a supportive environment like a family, friend circle,etc. Let's take for example, this forum. Those who are here, have an increased chance of success, right? Since we are amongst like minded people aiming towards like minded individual goals(financial freedom/entrepreneurship).

You are indeed lucky you have a Dad like that, believe me. Take advantage of his advice as much as you can, bro. As for the part where you mention peeps getting loads of degrees, go check out linkedin. Employees have posted as much new courses and certificates that they have earned in hope of getting better opportunities in their perspective like jobs, employment, etc. whereas owners or founders are not interested in showing off or having that much degrees. Getting work done is the most important skill.

 

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[Roy2023]

From the Life in the Fastlane newsletter...

I swear, if I hear another wannabe entrepreneur justify dropping out of college because Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates dropped out, I'll vomit. 
Read on and discover why these two examples mean nothing, especially if you think dropping out of Johnson County Community College with no education, experience, or skills is a good idea.

In the vast cosmic ballet, there's a pervasive illusion that luck is the master choreographer.

Hang out on Reddit or some other mainstream media rag, and you'll be bludgeoned repeatedly with the idea that luck is in control. I mean, why bother trying to win your best life when luck lurks around every corner, thwarting your best attempts?

But what if I told you there's a powerful tool, honed by centuries of thinkers that can smack luck in the face and let you take charge of your destiny?


Ladies and gentlemen, meet my little friend called conditional probability.


Okay, I know what you're thinking. "Probability? Isn't that some dry, dusty stuff I tried to forget after high school?" Don't groan; bear with me. Let's rip off that crusty academic veneer and reveal the jewel inside. If you can master this concept, it's a game-changer.


Conditional probability allows you to make decisions armed with the statistical equivalent of a lightsaber, cutting through ambiguity and randomness with surgical precision.


Let's break it down.

Conditional probability, in simple terms, is the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already taken place.

It's like the chain reaction, dominoes effect.

If one domino falls, it affects the probability of the next one tumbling. Unlike a coin flip where the prior flip means nothing on the next, conditional probability CHANGES the odds of some event or occurrence happening later. Can you imagine? YES, your actions change the odds.

Now, let's leave the theoretical realm and dive into the practical.

The fact that Gates or Zuckerberg dropped out of college and became billionaires isn't relevant...

What is relevant is the conditional probability that they were brilliant enough to be accepted into Harvard in the first place.

That huge condition—acceptance to Harvard—is what precipitated the higher likelihood of success.


A study by the Harvard Business Review found that Harvard graduates are more likely to become millionaires than graduates of other universities. The study found that 21% of Harvard graduates become millionaires, compared to only 8% of graduates from other universities. Using Gates and Zuck as justification to drop out of your community college is like thinking you can mimic Warren Buffet's success by drinking 6 Cokes a day.


Here's another example I've been beating at The Fastlane Forum like a drum: riding a motorcycle in traffic versus a car. Statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reveal that motorcyclists, per mile driven, are 28 times more likely than passenger car occupants to die in a traffic crash.


In this scenario, choosing to ride a motorcycle—the action which alters the probabilities—significantly increases your chances of being involved in a fatal accident. Or worse, you suffer a traumatic brain injury (TBI) and lose your ability to speak, see, or hear. Again, you see the confluence of conditional probability based on your simple actions—actions you ultimately control.

Think about smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. If you're a chain smoker, the likelihood of developing lung cancer is much higher than a non-smoker. The American Cancer Society states smokers are 15 to 30 times more likely to get lung cancer or die from lung-related diseases than non-smokers.

That's a huge difference, right?

This is conditional probability at play. Your decision to smoke alters the likelihood of you getting lung cancer.

View attachment 49755

Here's another example...

If you're hanging out at Reddit all day complaining about capitalism, luck, and how the system has beaten you down like a rented mule, that behavior is a conditional probability.

I will bet the farm that you will never get rich, much less succeed beyond the average Doomer who makes a day of complaining.


On the contrary, if you spend a few hours a week at The Fastlane Forum learning about new business strategies or have read and applied my books and the CENTS Framework, that, too, is a conditional probability. While the average person's odds of wealth might be 1%, due to conditional probability, yours might be 22%.

Bottomline, you can control your actions which impact conditional probabilities, and if you can do that, guess what? You can minimize the impact of luck in your life.

Here are some other simple random actions in our lives that impact conditional probabilities:

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Action Poor dietary habits Reading often Hanging out with losers Hanging out with winners Drunk driving Marrying after 4 dates Spend hours on social media Spend hours on Reddit	Probabilities YOU change Heart disease, diabetes Success and failure Living like a loser, tragic outcomes Access to opportunities, mentality Tragic outcomes Divorce Depression, anxiety Fixed mindset, external locus

By understanding the impact of our choices on other probabilities, YOU can make better decisions.

It's not about eliminating luck or randomness—these are inherent aspects of life.

Instead, it's about minimizing their influence and maximizing the power of deliberate choice and the odds they alter.

 Applying this knowledge, you can interact with the world as a sequence of conditional probabilities rather than a string of random events.

This perspective shift allows you to recognize that seemingly isolated actions often have far-reaching effects, altering the probabilistic landscape of your future.



Your entire life is about the application of conditional probability. While you might not see the probabilities or know their exact numbers, they exist. Recognizing conditional probability might not ensure that you win every time, but it gives you the edge over those who choose to leave their fate in the hands of randomness. 

Yes, your decisions make a difference.

The question is, will you make them matter and punch luck in the face? Or will you be a Doomer and let luck leash you to its whims?

Act wisely and manipulate the odds in your favor; act poorly and set them against you.

~ MJ

If you are a member of Fastlane and do NOT receive this newsletter, you can opt in via your Privacy settings.

View attachment 49753

Great post