Math: The ultimate decision-making tool...

[kepton]

Today's newsletter is on decision making, and this little exercise isn't included.

However, one decision-making strategy is to analyze things from simple math.

Per below, if Stripe owes you $5000, you can be charged $50 to get your payout 3 days early.

If you work out the math, you'd be mortified. But I guess Stripe hopes you won't work out the math.

What is the annualized return for Stripe? Or the annualized cost for your impatience?

3 days of impatience costs you an annualized interest rate of 121%. On the other side, Stripe will earn 121% on your impatience.

Question: Would you take a loan @ 121% interest rates?

You wouldn't and math exposes the right decision. It also exposes Stripe for charging mob-like rates that should be illegal.

View attachment 48850

I think this post ignores the real truth. The truth is that house pricings will not always go up and that the investment was just lucky. It's not MATH what decides the prices, but luck.

I find the information misleading, trying to show an investment like simple maths when this is never the case. All investments results are based on pure luck, guys. This is the real truth.

 

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[jclean]

Of course it is good luck! It's incredible to see your denial to such a simple and essential fact.

I'm glad you will not participate in this post anymore, since you're who makes this a circus.
I'm very serious in my statements, you aren't and you're obviously trolling me. Glad you leaved here.

you need a tiny bit of luck left and right indeed, but this is negligible compared to all the work you put into it. if you achieve something in life (successful company, a good family...,) it all has to do with hard work, perseverance, making smart decisions.
simply attributing all the good things that happen in someone's life to luck is depreciating the people who have worked hard for it... many people who have achieved something in their lives are sick and tired of being told that it is only because of luck

 

[Jon822]

What's scary is there are people like this all around us. Your cousin. The guy next to you on the train. The guy delivering your DoorDash. They read a book on "randomness" and pervert it into this mystical life philosophy that borders on nihilism. People like this have no business in my life, here at the forum, and god forbid, I ever hire one of these "types" as an employee.

Imagine if one day after you had a $200,000+ month from your original website profits, one of these 1% gurus emerged, "Hey MJ, just want to remind you that you only have a 1% chance of getting wealthy. This is a mathematical certainty. Don't try and argue with it." You'd laugh your a$$ off the entire way to the bank.

 

[kepton]

I hate to quibble over minute details, but the APR is actually 121.67% or higher since the fees are max($0.50, 1%). If $0.50 ends up being higher, then APR > 121.67%. For example, if someone were to pull $5 out early, the APR would be around 1216.67%. All of this to say that the Stripe punishment for being impatient is even worse.



Damn. I wish i would have known this before I got my degree in mathematics and statistics. I could have gotten a degree in what I'm really passionate about: underwater basket weaving.

Well, I see you took my comment like a joke, and this doesn't surprise me at all.

Well, what I'm telling is that the entropy, the randomness in life is the real determining factor in all the investments, beside all the statistics or math you can apply, and I think this is an undeniable fact, but not popular. Not popular because luck cannot be controlled, and it's something you cannot sell to anyone...

Having a degree in maths wouldn't change anything on an investment like this, cause maths cannot predict the chaos, just simple statistics, which sometimes work, and others doesn't.

Doesn't surprise me to see rich people these are smarter instead of seeing the real reason they are rich: pure luck. But well, the human ego and lack of humility will try to hide this fact trying to convince the lucky winner that he's smarter like some sort of god, which he isn't in reality.

I know MJ will not like my comment since this discourages what he promotes but I would like to let know to people what I've learned by experience.

The 80/20 Pareto's law is totally real, which means only a little percentage will be "lucky" to reach his dreams. The rest will suffer and experiment loss.

This is cruel and this is how this world works. Having this law in account, trying to be on the 20% will depend on pure luck and always being adjusted. I'm not telling you not to try, but I'm telling you just to see that you cannot control luck, and if luck doens't want you to be rich, you will not.

 

[kepton]

Bro, I got you!

Join my coin flipping investment newsletter (link coming soon), and I'll make sure you have plenty of time and money to weave baskets underwater.

I'm the luckiest guy on the forum, so just follow my lead.

Ooo, that should be the tagline...

If it's luck you need, follow my lead.

Can't miss.



First of all, you absolutely can sell luck. And the perception of luck.

Second of all there is a Grand canyon sized difference between entropy and luck.

If you want to come on here and sound dumb, expect to be treated like you're dumb.

But if you want to come on here and try and sound intelligent, make sure you are precise in your language.

By the rules of entropy, some small percentage of people who do absolutely nothing will become rich. I'm not talking about people who buy lottery tickets. They at least took an action. If you really talking chaos theory, then people who sit on their a$$ and never stand up have the potential to get rich. That person would be truly lucky. And luck is all you need, apparently.

Since that seems to be the belief that you are espousing, since you are saying that providing value has nothing to do with becoming successful...

Well you're actually even dumber than I first thought.

Your first comment made you just sound ignorant.

Your last comment made you sound willfully, mentally handicapped.

I hope you break through this limiting belief one day. I really do.

First of all, you absolutely can sell luck

This is the most absurd answer I've read on my life.

How can you affirm such a thing without providing more explanations?

You nor anyone can sell luck cause it's impossible.

Luck cannot be controlled any way, just probabilities, which are not luck. I you could control luck, well, you would be GOD. And you aren't.

You're denying very basic facts here which demonstrates that you're one of the lucky guys who doesn't want to see that luck determined his life in reality, nor only his willpower. This is the illusion the ego is projecting on you, but the reality is that you're not better than others. You're showing you think you are better for your arrogant comments, which is a shame. But well, life teach us all, sooner or later.

Since that seems to be the belief that you are espousing, since you are saying that providing value has nothing to do with becoming successful...

I'm sorry but I see you're affirming something I've not said in any way here. Clearly you've got my point totally wrong, and insulting me betrays your lack of arguments.

I'm not despising value here, but saying that all the value in the world without luck, becomes useless. It's a very simple concept, but hard to really understand. Especially by the ego...

 

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[kepton]

Wow, thanks for sharing the true, real, and actual truth.

All my life I've been misled by the idea that hard work and good choices lead to success. I had no idea that the real truth was luck.


@MJ DeMarco
We need to change C.E.N.T.S. with something else... L.O.S.E.R.

Luck
OpenSea NFTs
Stocks
Entropy
Reddit



This is another example of the real truth in action.

You've got a STEM degree because you got lucky. This is the entropy of the universe!

You got your degree and everything you have cause you got favorable circumstances. Those favorable circumstances depend on luck. You've got the health and the opportunities to be there, and you put the effort. But primarily, you needed the luck to be at the right place at the right moment. Think about it, if you can...

The 3 Stages of Truth
The process of acknowledging a truth is broken down into three stages:

1. The first stage is ridicule. When a new idea or concept is brought up, it's so strange that it's completely absurd. People cannot fathom this idea and how it fits into their lives, so they simply laugh at how impossible it seems.
2. The second stage is opposition. After a new concept hasn't made it past the first stage, people begin to worry that it's here to stay. A few might support the concept, but most will resist because they see it as a threat to everything they're familiar with.
3. The third stage is self-evident. There is increasing evidence that supports the idea, which goes from having a few early supporters to entering the mainstream. A majority of people support the fact and come to accept it as a given.

 

[kepton]

Some poker players win over the long run. Were they lucky to have figured out how?

This is a very interesting question.

Are you saying MJ was lucky to be able to make correct mathematical decisions?

It's true that we all won the lottery just by being born, and that being able to argue online via our internet connection makes us some of the luckiest people born.

Apart from that, what MJ did made mathematical sense.

He borrowed money at x% and made it work at y% where y was greater than x.

He also converted cash in the bank (that would be devalued over time by inflation) into property (that would increase in value over time due to inflation and other factors).

As any investment, it implies risk. Since nothing guarantees that housing prices will go up in the investment's region, luck plays a role.

 

[kepton]

Look up indulgences.

Look up horse track betting.

Look up new age crystals.

Casinos sell luck all day every day. Bad luck is still luck, after all. And if you think about it in terms of selling bad luck, let's just go ahead and add cigarettes and alcohol companies to the list of organizations selling bad luck

This is not luck in any way. You said luck can be sold. No one of the thing you've mentioned guarantee luck. Please, don't make ridicule affirmations, specially talking about selling luck. Luck cannot be sold in any way. And when I mean luck I mean real guaranteed luck, not a lottery ticket, which seems you think it's the same.

Smoke selling is not luck.

Coming from the guy who said luck is the determining factor in success, this comment is hypocritical.

You can't prove your statement, therefore how can you affirm i

Nothing hypocritical from my part. You wrote luck can be sold, which is not true and you know it. This is hypocritical.

And yes, I affirm luck is the most important fact since is the one we're not in control with, and without it we're nothing. I'm sorry but you cannot rebate this argument. You nor anyone.

Did I hurt your fragile ego by calling you ignorant? Is that why you're on some high horse making assumptions about me, my, luck, my belief of others, and level of my ego?

You demonstrated here you're a highly manipulative individual. I suppose some part of your success is related to that. Good luck with your lack of morals.

Hope your luck changes kepton.

This is the typical comment of an ignorant individual regarding the luck topic. What's "hope"? Do you think your hope will alter my luck? Well, this is called superstition, and it's used by all the ignorant people respecting randomness.

Luck in your dreams isn't important, but what's important is to take the right decisions with the luck you've got, which is very different. This is where you play. But luck is luck. If you're lucky, congrats, but you must assume someday you're luck can change, and must be prepared...

 

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[Jon822]

Well, I see you took my comment like a joke, and this doesn't surprise me at all.

Well it's hard to interpret your comments in any other way given that you're dressed as a clown.

Listen, I'm not going to waste time going through each bit of nonsense you've spouted. You're either a troll, in which case congrats on looking like a dumbass to get attention, or you genuinely believe in your nonsense. If it's the latter, it is clearly a self-defense mechanism to shield you from the obvious fact that you're a loser and you want it to be unchangeable. It's cliche at this point: you sound like every high school dropout who posts conspiracy theories and ancient philosophy to his Facebook to sound intelligent. Enjoy being a loser and convincing yourself you're just unlucky.

I hope you wise up someday and see how truly stupid this stuff is that you're reciting. I don't think you ever will because then you'll have to take responsibility and hold yourself accountable which are two things you've clearly never done.

 

[kepton]

Well it's hard to interpret your comments in any other way given that you're dressed as a clown.

Listen, I'm not going to waste time going through each bit of nonsense you've spouted. You're either a troll, in which case congrats on looking like a dumbass to get attention, or you genuinely believe in your nonsense. If it's the latter, it is clearly a self-defense mechanism to shield you from the obvious fact that you're a loser and you want it to be unchangeable. It's cliche at this point: you sound like every high school dropout who posts conspiracy theories and ancient philosophy to his Facebook to sound intelligent. Enjoy being a loser and convincing yourself you're just unlucky.

In fairness to your point where luck does matter, you definitely lost the genetic roll for intelligence.

Oh really? Well if I sound like a dropout, read Nassim Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" essay explaining exactly the same I'm saying here. He's not precisely a dumb individual.

Only the stupid people tell other stupid. Congratulations defining yourself!

I'm sorry to tell you but I'm very lucky and not precisely a loser.

What I've explained here is a very irrefutable basic fact. It's incredible you deny that! Really incredible to see your ignorance.

 

[Jon822]

I never said housing prices always go up. Nice straw.

But you know what always goes up? Inflation. $1 dollar today is ALWAYS worth less than $1 tomorrow.

Luck has nothing to do with it.

This is the real truth.

Pretty sure you meant ALWAYS worth more than. Just wanted to point out the typo so you can fix it.

 

[unicon]

The true danger is to place excess cash in lieu of compounding inflation - fiat currency manipulated.
Leverage is optimum in this environment, however you never know when things will turn against you.

A 66% downpayment on $5.3 million is very conservative especially when the balance is being paid off with liquid funds and business cash flow. Further the idea of force feeding the balance of 1.8 M over 3 years to a zero balance defeats the leverage. One would suppose a loss of tax write off also lowering the return.

Being long term actually accomplishing the same thing but using leverage for 30 years even equally conservative on 10M with 20% leverage mostly on the home (5500 sq ft) enables no taxation given constant improvements to other income property. Perfection is somewhere in between, but long term holding ability and leverage is the key to monster ROI. If you control a small community lifestyle the value is compounding.

Also the larger the home, the more overhead must be allocated to the albatross factor, which also includes property tax - the only expense one cannot control.

Property is so encompassing - in other words property gives life and liberty while being a right in itself.

Just like the negative side of ethics - stealing encompasses lying and cheating

Property is hard to steal, inflation is theft in real time and printing only benefits the printer.

 

[heavy_industry]

On the forum 6 years and "luck determines success" is the best your life has taught you.

Apply cold water to burned area.


Guys, don't worry.
Now we know the real truth.

We're all going to make millions.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mh09VuGlKo&ab_channel=DisneyUK

 

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[kepton]

Apply cold water to burned area.


Guys, don't worry.
Now we know the real truth.

We're all going to make millions.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mh09VuGlKo&ab_channel=DisneyUK

 

[kepton]

Apply cold water to burned area.


Guys, don't worry.
Now we know the real truth.

We're all going to make millions.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mh09VuGlKo&ab_channel=DisneyUK

You're ignoring Pareto's 80/20 law here. All of you will not make money, only a minority and that includes you. Your probabilities to make it are against you. It's a law of nature, not mine. I will not laugh at the misery of others for that reason. Not the case of the winners here of course. That demonstrates you don't value your luck, you think you just deserve it cause you're more intelligent. What a shame.

 

[kepton]

I deserve nothing and am entitled to nothing.

Everything that I got in life (including life itself) was a gift from the heavens.


But this doesn't change the fact that we are making our own "luck" through repeated action.

• If you smoke 2 packs a day and in 10 years you die from cancer that's not bad luck.
• If you run businesses in a smart way and in 10 years you're at $100MM, that's not good luck.

It's Karma.
It's determinism.
It's cause-and-effect.

Pareto distributions, normal distributions, and the Matthew principle are very powerful concepts to understand, and I use them in my business and life on a regular basis.

But they have no predictive power over individual outcomes. This is not how statistics work.

Extreme levels of success may occur in 1% of the population, but your individual probability of achieving success ranges from 0% to over 99%, depending almost entirely on your own actions.

Not sure what is the point you're trying to make, and I'm not sure if you're just trolling, so I will stop replying because what's happening on this thread starts to resemble a circus.

 

[Robertson]

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Dude chill out, stop spamming in every thread.

I give you a day max, before your banned