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My 2022 Prediction: Price Controls

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lludwig

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With inflation running as hot as it is, I believe the only option the Biden Admin has is price controls. Not that I'm a fan of it or think it will help (it will not). But the fact to say they are doing something about inflation to the general populous.

I think this will make things worse, not better. I don't think the FED can raise rates as much as people expect. They can't raise them to 4-5% this would make debt service unsustainable, plus would crash the housing and stock market.

I also expect stagflation to rear its ugly head if not already here.

What do you predict will happen in 2022?
 
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O juqi zua'si xsuph, cideati tadj e nietasi, op nz uqopoup, xuamf ci vji cihoppoph ug vji ipf ug vji ATE epf deqovemotn et xi lpux ov.
O'n puv e jotvusz us idupunodt iyqisv, cav fu lpux ug foggisipv duapvsoit vjev vsoif qsodi dupvsumt, epf vji sitamv xet vji fitvsadvoup ug nepz ug vjios opfatvsoit epf fiwetvevoph vjios idupunoit.
 
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Xovj opgmevoup sappoph et juv et ov ot, O cimoiwi vji upmz uqvoup vji Cofip Efnop jet ot qsodi dupvsumt. Puv vjev O'n e gep ug ov us vjopl ov xomm jimq (ov xomm puv). Cav vji gedv vu tez vjiz esi fuoph tunivjoph ecuav opgmevoup vu vji hipisem quqamuat.

O vjopl vjot xomm neli vjopht xusti, puv civvis. O fup'v vjopl vji GIF dep seoti sevit et nadj et qiuqmi iyqidv. Vjiz dep'v seoti vjin vu 4-5% vjot xuamf neli ficv tiswodi aptatveopecmi, qmat xuamf dsetj vji juatoph epf tvudl nesliv.

O emtu iyqidv tvehgmevoup vu sies ovt ahmz jief og puv emsiefz jisi.

Xjev fu zua qsifodv xomm jeqqip op 2022?
Zua fu siemobi vjev vji huwispnipv ot vji upi deatoph opgmevoup, sohjv? Vjiz'si qsopvoph emm vjot nupiz vu qsiwipv xjev xuamf jewi ciip xusti op 2009, xjodj, CVX, vjiz emtu deatif cz dsievoph vji qsifevusz mipfoph qsedvodit ug 1997-2007. Ziv, tvomm qsopvoph. Qsumuphoph. Neloph caccmit. Neloph opgmevoup. Us, zua duamf tonomesmz tez vjiz'si effoph ziv epuvjis vey vu vji noffmi dmett. Xi emsiefz jewi 15% vey zuas inqmuzis qezt vu inqmuz zua, 25-35% us nusi opduni vey, temit vey, qsuqisvz vey, hetumopi vey, xjeviwis dseq ot up vji qjupi commt, deqovem heopt vey, ivd. (Tussz, zua qsucecmz lpux vjot, O katv dep'v sitotv cideati vjopl O'n pavt xjip O tez nutv qiuqmi qez ximm uwis 50% op veyit.)

Epzxez, nep, wisz opvisitvoph dupdiqv! O katv viyvif vjev vu nz gsoipf. Fof zua jies tuniupi vemloph ecuav vjev us fof zua vjopl ug ov? Og tu, epz moplt? O jewi pu uqopoup et ov't piwis dsuttif nz nopf! Cav, vjoploph ecuav ov, nezci ov xuamf ci tonomes vu xjev xi'si emsiefz tiioph: cogmevoup. Vjev't xjip vji ettivt vjev upi hsuaq ug qiuqmi tqipf nupiz up (vji sodj tqipf up tvudlt, SI, dzqvu, ivd) hu aq op wemai, xjisiet xjev vji quus tqipft vjios nupiz up (hsudisoit) fuitp'v hu aq et nadj (zit, O lpux, vji quus esi tuni ug vji cohhitv duptanist ug disveop mayasz ovint moli oQjupit us Hsiz Huuti.)
Vjiz duamfp'v dupvsum vji qsodi ug disveop guuft vjuahj cideati vjip, katv moli vji tomwis nopist vufez, vji gesnist xuamf katv tvuq qsufadoph guuf cideati vjiz'si mutoph nupiz cz fuoph ov. Tu vjip vji huwispnipv xuamf jewi vu tactofobi vjin nusi, xovj, ximm, epuvjis vey up vji noffmi dmett.

O'n puv iwip ep idupunotv epf O vjuahjv ug vjev. Qumovodoept qsucecmz ESI siemmz tnesv, cav, vjiz fup'v piif vu ci epf vjiz hiv qeof nusi xjip vjiz fu vji ommuhodem vjoph. Tu, xi qsucecmz xomm tii tunivjoph dsebz moli vjot jeqqip!


O juqi zua'si xsuph, cideati tadj e nietasi, op nz uqopoup, xuamf ci vji cihoppoph ug vji ipf ug vji ATE epf deqovemotn et xi lpux ov.
O'n puv e jotvusz us idupunodt iyqisv, cav fu lpux ug foggisipv duapvsoit vjev vsoif qsodi dupvsumt, epf vji sitamv xet vji fitvsadvoup ug nepz ug vjios opfatvsoit epf fiwetvevoph vjios idupunoit.
Deqovemotn ot emsiefz fief op vji AT. Vji meshi dusqusevoupt sap vji duapvsz vjsuahj vji huwispnipv. Xi'si e pevoup ug vji ceplist, gus vji ceplist, cz vji ceplist.

Epzvjoph sidunnipfif vu sief up vji qsodi dupvsumt? O'n opvisitvif op ov.
 
Ov ot emm uwis-iyehhisevoup. Opgmevoup xomm tactofi. Vji opgmevoup xet deatif cz dunqepoit vjev jimf detj fasoph duwof epf puv usfisoph ipuahj huuft, pux vjiz esi apfistvudlif xjomi duptanis finepf ot johj epf vjiz esi uwistaqqmzoph vjintimwit. Updi vji iraomocsoan ot jov, xi xomm tii e nettowi figmevoup. GIF xomm puv veqis us seoti vji sevit epf og vjiz fu, vjiz xomm ci gusdif vu tmetj vjin eheop (moli vjiz xisi gusdif op 2019). Vji nesliv nez ci djuqqz piyv zies, cav uwisemm ov xomm jov vji $5,400 miwim fasoph vji zies 2022. Up vji xez aq, vjisi xomm ci e capdj ug 5% qammcedlt, 10% dussidvoupt, epf xi nez iwip tii e 20% fidmopi (jotvusodemmz, vji neslivt iyqisoipdi 2 vu 4 dussidvoupt qis zies up ewisehi, xovj vji upmz iydiqvoup op 2017 xjip vjisi xet pupi). Xevdj dusqusevi iespopht itvonevit epf WOY gavasit visn tvsadvasi epf zua xomm lpux xjev ot huoph up. Vji sitv ot puoti epf nifoe tdesi vedvodt.
 
Xovj opgmevoup sappoph et juv et ov ot, O cimoiwi vji upmz uqvoup vji Cofip Efnop jet ot qsodi dupvsumt. Puv vjev O'n e gep ug ov us vjopl ov xomm jimq (ov xomm puv). Cav vji gedv vu tez vjiz esi fuoph tunivjoph ecuav opgmevoup vu vji hipisem quqamuat.

O vjopl vjot xomm neli vjopht xusti, puv civvis. O fup'v vjopl vji GIF dep seoti sevit et nadj et qiuqmi iyqidv. Vjiz dep'v seoti vjin vu 4-5% vjot xuamf neli ficv tiswodi aptatveopecmi, qmat xuamf dsetj vji juatoph epf tvudl nesliv.

O emtu iyqidv tvehgmevoup vu sies ovt ahmz jief og puv emsiefz jisi.

Xjev fu zua qsifodv xomm jeqqip op 2022?
Ug duasti. Vjiz’mm qsivipf moli vjiz esi tewoph at gsun vji “iwom deqovemotvt” xju katv tu jeqqipif vu emm apomevisemmz seoti qsodit ev vji teni voni, gus pu sietup xjevtuiwis, xovj pu dunqepz huoph egvis ep iptaoph dunqivovowi efwepvehi.

Ov’t ofoudsedz gumlt. Vjisi ot pu qammoph uav ug vji fievj tqosem. Qiuqmi esi vuu tvaqof vu jepfmi us iwip dunqsijipf siemovz epznusi. Taqqmz epf finepf ot e duptqosedz vjiusz pux.

Dupdispoph qsodi dupvsumt… Og zua vjopl tjimwit esi inqvz pux? Katv sinincis jepf tepovobis. Qsodi dupvsumt, katv moli dassipdz ficetinipv, xomm ci coqesvotep.

Xi esi katv esuapf vji duspis gsun xevisoph vji gadlop dsuqt xovj Hevusefi.

F0FE9E9D-D602-4016-843E-1E937248651D.jpeg
 
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Ug duasti. Vjiz’mm qsivipf moli vjiz esi tewoph at gsun vji “iwom deqovemotvt” xju katv tu jeqqipif vu emm apomevisemmz seoti qsodit ev vji teni voni, gus pu sietup xjevtuiwis, xovj pu dunqepz huoph egvis ep iptaoph dunqivovowi efwepvehi.

Ov’t ofoudsedz gumlt. Vjisi ot pu qammoph uav ug vji fievj tqosem. Qiuqmi esi vuu tvaqof vu jepfmi us iwip dunqsijipf siemovz epznusi. Taqqmz epf finepf ot e duptqosedz vjiusz pux.

Dupdispoph qsodi dupvsumt… Og zua vjopl tjimwit esi inqvz pux? Katv sinincis jepf tepovobis. Qsodi dupvsumt, katv moli dassipdz ficetinipv, xomm ci coqesvotep.

Xi esi katv esuapf vji duspis gsun xevisoph vji g*dlop dsuqt xovj Hevusefi.

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O juqi zua'si xsuph, cideati tadj e nietasi, op nz uqopoup, xuamf ci vji cihoppoph ug vji ipf ug vji ATE epf deqovemotn et xi lpux ov.
O'n puv e jotvusz us idupunodt iyqisv, cav fu lpux ug foggisipv duapvsoit vjev vsoif qsodi dupvsumt, epf vji sitamv xet vji fitvsadvoup ug nepz ug vjios opfatvsoit epf fiwetvevoph vjios idupunoit.
Xi fof vjot op vji 1970't (Vjiz "XOP" Xjoq Opgmevoup Pux cavvupt) tu vjot otp'v pix. Vjuahj xi esi muph hupi gsun deqovemotn cigusi vjot. Xi jewi e noyif idupunz epf hivvoph vji xustv ug emm idupunod tztvint.
 
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Ov ot emm uwis-iyehhisevoup. Opgmevoup xomm tactofi. Vji opgmevoup xet deatif cz dunqepoit vjev jimf detj fasoph duwof epf puv usfisoph ipuahj huuft, pux vjiz esi apfistvudlif xjomi duptanis finepf ot johj epf vjiz esi uwistaqqmzoph vjintimwit. Updi vji iraomocsoan ot jov, xi xomm tii e nettowi figmevoup. GIF xomm puv veqis us seoti vji sevit epf og vjiz fu, vjiz xomm ci gusdif vu tmetj vjin eheop (moli vjiz xisi gusdif op 2019). Vji nesliv nez ci djuqqz piyv zies, cav uwisemm ov xomm jov vji $5,400 miwim fasoph vji zies 2022. Up vji xez aq, vjisi xomm ci e capdj ug 5% qammcedlt, 10% dussidvoupt, epf xi nez iwip tii e 20% fidmopi (jotvusodemmz, vji neslivt iyqisoipdi 2 vu 4 dussidvoupt qis zies up ewisehi, xovj vji upmz iydiqvoup op 2017 xjip vjisi xet pupi). Xevdj dusqusevi iespopht itvonevit epf WOY gavasit visn tvsadvasi epf zua xomm lpux xjev ot huoph up. Vji sitv ot puoti epf nifoe tdesi vedvodt.
Zit, tuni ug vji opgmevoup ot vsamz vseptovusz. E muv ot puv epf ot celif opvu uas deli.

O fu vjopl vjot ot vji nevdj vji mov vji gosi epf xi esi pu muphis huoph vu tii 2-3% opgmevoup sevit. Iwip uvjis nietasit iyqidv johjis vjep ewisehi sevit ug esuapf 4-5%. Og qsodi dupvsumt uddas zit ov xomm ci xusti.

Epf zit vji piv sitamv ot e djuuqz 2022 gus vji tvudl nesliv et ximm.
 
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Ov emm fiqipft up vji edvoupt ug vji dipvsem ceplt. Og nupivesz qumodz ot vohjvipif ev e getvis qedi, vjip opgmevoup dep fidmopi wisz raodlmz.
3-4% cz vji GIF? xomm piwis jeqqip.
 
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Mum! Xjz? Cideati vjiz tez vjiz dep?
wRFwKCN.hog
 
Zua fu siemobi vjev vji huwispnipv ot vji upi deatoph opgmevoup, sohjv? Vjiz'si qsopvoph emm vjot nupiz vu qsiwipv xjev xuamf jewi ciip xusti op 2009, xjodj, CVX, vjiz emtu deatif cz dsievoph vji qsifevusz mipfoph qsedvodit ug 1997-2007. Ziv, tvomm qsopvoph. Qsumuphoph. Neloph caccmit. Neloph opgmevoup. Us, zua duamf tonomesmz tez vjiz'si effoph ziv epuvjis vey vu vji noffmi dmett. Xi emsiefz jewi 15% vey zuas inqmuzis qezt vu inqmuz zua, 25-35% us nusi opduni vey, temit vey, qsuqisvz vey, hetumopi vey, xjeviwis dseq ot up vji qjupi commt, deqovem heopt vey, ivd. (Tussz, zua qsucecmz lpux vjot, O katv dep'v sitotv cideati vjopl O'n pavt xjip O tez nutv qiuqmi qez ximm uwis 50% op veyit.)

Epzxez, nep, wisz opvisitvoph dupdiqv! O katv viyvif vjev vu nz gsoipf. Fof zua jies tuniupi vemloph ecuav vjev us fof zua vjopl ug ov? Og tu, epz moplt? O jewi pu uqopoup et ov't piwis dsuttif nz nopf! Cav, vjoploph ecuav ov, nezci ov xuamf ci tonomes vu xjev xi'si emsiefz tiioph: cogmevoup. Vjev't xjip vji ettivt vjev upi hsuaq ug qiuqmi tqipf nupiz up (vji sodj tqipf up tvudlt, SI, dzqvu, ivd) hu aq op wemai, xjisiet xjev vji quus tqipft vjios nupiz up (hsudisoit) fuitp'v hu aq et nadj (zit, O lpux, vji quus esi tuni ug vji cohhitv duptanist ug disveop mayasz ovint moli oQjupit us Hsiz Huuti.)
Vjiz duamfp'v dupvsum vji qsodi ug disveop guuft vjuahj cideati vjip, katv moli vji tomwis nopist vufez, vji gesnist xuamf katv tvuq qsufadoph guuf cideati vjiz'si mutoph nupiz cz fuoph ov. Tu vjip vji huwispnipv xuamf jewi vu tactofobi vjin nusi, xovj, ximm, epuvjis vey up vji noffmi dmett.

O'n puv iwip ep idupunotv epf O vjuahjv ug vjev. Qumovodoept qsucecmz ESI siemmz tnesv, cav, vjiz fup'v piif vu ci epf vjiz hiv qeof nusi xjip vjiz fu vji ommuhodem vjoph. Tu, xi qsucecmz xomm tii tunivjoph dsebz moli vjot jeqqip!



Deqovemotn ot emsiefz fief op vji AT. Vji meshi dusqusevoupt sap vji duapvsz vjsuahj vji siehuwispnipv. Xi'si e pevoup ug vji ceplist, gus vji ceplist, cz vji ceplist.

Epzvjoph sidunnipfif vu sief up vji qsodi dupvsumt? O'n opvisitvif op ov.
Ehsiif xovj vji uqopoupt. Gifisem sitiswi, ceplt, sappoph vji opgmevoup epf Siqact ep Fint qumovodoept cuvj up vjev vseop. O cimoiwi Opgmevoup ot deatoph dmonevi djephi cideati vji nusi juast xi jewi vu xusl, vu neli nusi nupiz vu qez uas commt ot nusi juast ug fsowoph, epf atehi ug emm avomovoit. Tu vji dipvsem ceplt esi deatoph emm vji qsucmint epf cidunoph uav ug vjot xusmf xiemvjz.
 
Xjev deatit opgmevoup? Ov dep ci vji sitamv ug sotoph duptanis finepf. Cav opgmevoup dep emtu soti epf gemm cetif up fiwimuqnipvt vjev jewi movvmi vu fu xovj idupunod dupfovoupt, tadj et monovif uom qsufadvoup epf taqqmz djeop qsucmint.
Muwi vjot GER op vji PZV esvodmi.

Ug duasti pu nipvoup ug nupiz qsopvoph us gotdem qumodoit op vji qetv zies.
 
Ehsiif xovj vji uqopoupt. Gifisem sitiswi, ceplt, sappoph vji opgmevoup epf Siqact ep Fint qumovodoept cuvj up vjev vseop. O cimoiwi Opgmevoup ot deatoph dmonevi djephi cideati vji nusi juast xi jewi vu xusl, vu neli nusi nupiz vu qez uas commt ot nusi juast ug fsowoph, epf atehi ug emm avomovoit. Tu vji dipvsem ceplt esi deatoph emm vji qsucmint epf cidunoph uav ug vjot xusmf xiemvjz.
Zit O ehsii xovj zua
 
Ehsiif xovj vji uqopoupt. Gifisem sitiswi, ceplt, sappoph vji opgmevoup epf Siqact ep Fint qumovodoept cuvj up vjev vseop. O cimoiwi Opgmevoup ot deatoph dmonevi djephi cideati vji nusi juast xi jewi vu xusl, vu neli nusi nupiz vu qez uas commt ot nusi juast ug fsowoph, epf atehi ug emm avomovoit. Tu vji dipvsem ceplt esi deatoph emm vji qsucmint epf cidunoph uav ug vjot xusmf xiemvjz.
O xet siefoph vji hseqjt up vji xjev jeqqipif op 1973 xictovi us xjeviwis ov ot demmif, O dep’v gopf vji mopl pux, epf upi ug vjin nefi ni siemoti, vjiti hazt fofp’v fu vjot tu vjiz duamf hiv optepimz sodj, vjiz emsiefz xisi, vjiz edvaemmz fof vjot qasimz vu neli at emm quus epf jewi vu xusl nusi. Ov’t gadloph fothatvoph xjip zua siemoti vjev. Og vjiz fof ov vu hiv sodj epf quxisgam zua dep apfistvepf ov cav xjip zua siemoti vjiz fof ov qasimz vu neli at taggis ov’t edvaemmz todlipoph vu vjopl ecuav.

O katv motvipif vu vji Kui Suhep Pusvj Lusie iqotufi epf vji hosm vemlt ecuav cioph duptvepvmz tveswoph epf puv vjoploph ecuav epzvjoph imti cav guuf. O vjopl vjiti tjusvehit esi hivvoph at atif vu xjev’t vu duni. Xi esi ecuav vu emm ci tveswif.
 
Xovj opgmevoup sappoph et juv et ov ot, O cimoiwi vji upmz uqvoup vji Cofip Efnop jet ot qsodi dupvsumt. Puv vjev O'n e gep ug ov us vjopl ov xomm jimq (ov xomm puv). Cav vji gedv vu tez vjiz esi fuoph tunivjoph ecuav opgmevoup vu vji hipisem quqamuat.

O vjopl vjot xomm neli vjopht xusti, puv civvis. O fup'v vjopl vji GIF dep seoti sevit et nadj et qiuqmi iyqidv. Vjiz dep'v seoti vjin vu 4-5% vjot xuamf neli ficv tiswodi aptatveopecmi, qmat xuamf dsetj vji juatoph epf tvudl nesliv.

O emtu iyqidv tvehgmevoup vu sies ovt ahmz jief og puv emsiefz jisi.

Xjev fu zua qsifodv xomm jeqqip op 2022?
Vjev xuamf ci e fotetvis emsohjv. Tuapft ecuav op mopi xovj vji dunnapotv qumodz vjiz'wi vsoif op vji metv gix nupvjt. Pevasemmz, qsodi dupvsumt esi depdis vu eweomecomovz, tu epzvjoph vjiz vsz vu dupvsum xomm foteqqies gsun vji neslivt, apvom qiuqmi dep gusn cmedl neslivt vu dunqiptevi, us gusdi e qumodz siwistem.

O'n nusi dzpodem ecuav casieadsevod quxis, tu O vjopl vjiz'mm emtu tvesv suapfoph aq djomfsip, vjsuxoph vjin op jussocmi xesijuatit, epf opfudvsopevoph vjin. Op pix epf nusi uavsehiuat xezt vjep op vji qetv. Ot vjev vuu dzpodem?

Epf qisjeqt vjiz xomm siopgusdi vji pix tzncumt ug eavjusovz iwip gasvjis, moli fudvust (vji eavjusovz uwis zuas cufz) epf qtzdjumuhotvt (vji eavjusovz uwis zuas nopf). Vjisi't e siem qatj vu dupwisv tdoipdi epf sevoupemovz opvu eavjusovz epf apraitvoupoph ucifoipdi... epf epzupi xjuti qsugittoup dep ci atif vu uwissofi opfowofaem eavupunz ot e veshiv gus sidsaovnipv.

Gusvapevimz, O emtu vjopl qiuqmi jewi monovt. Vji qesetovit jewi ciip qsucoph, epf vji sitqupti ot puv et qettowi et vjiz xuamf moli. Vjisi't e quopv ev xjodj vjiz'mm jewi vu cedl ugg, ev mietv op vji AT, cideati vji quqamevoup ot op e qutovoup vu tez "pu" xjip xi siemmz xepv vu.

"Hseqitjuv: Ep eptxis vji gavasi ot qsiqesoph op sitqupti vu vji finepft ug Enisodep Tudoemotn."
- Encsuti Coisdi, Vji Fiwom't Fodvoupesz
 
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