Prediction: 2021 is going to be a total shit show. Place your bets now.

[csalvato]

A few points worth mentioning:

- First, a lot of people don't realize that deflation is a lot like gravity -- it's a natural economic force that is always acting to push prices down. Barring any other economic impetus, an economy will naturally tend towards deflation. This is simply because economic, business and manufacturing processes tend to get more efficient, and with margins staying the same, prices will naturally fall. So, if there are no outside forces acting on the economy (think: the Fed or Congress), deflation will occur over time;

- Next, people aren't spending a ridiculous amount of money. 4Q20 GDP growth is forecast to be about 2.8%, or pretty close to the average over the past 10 years. And annual GDP *contraction* is looking to be about 3.6%. Spending is much more on track than it was 6-9 months ago, but it's still far from stellar;

- Third, consider that stimulus money is likely to run out at some point soon, and deflationary forces occur when demand for goods and services drop. When there is less money flowing through the economy -- like there may be in the near future -- deflation is much more likely;

- Finally, consider that with the income/wealth gap widening, more money is flowing to the wealthy. What do wealthy people do with excess money? Hint: They don't buy more groceries or consumables. They buy assets. So, poorer people will be buying fewer commodities and wealthy people will be using the money to buy assets. This will lead to asset inflation, but CPI disinflation (or perhaps deflation).

Put all those things together, and it's not hard to imagine a pretty strong deflationary force.

Of course, there's also forces on the other side -- increased money supply, low interest rates, compressed cap rates on investments, etc. -- which tend to favor inflation.

Depending on how strong the forces are on each side -- which will very much depend on Fed and Congress decisions over the next 12-36 months -- things could go either way.

That said, the Fed wants inflation. And the Fed generally gets what it wants. So, if I had to bet, I'd bet on inflation...at least long-term...

Thank you again for your thoughtful reply and correcting my misconceptions.

It turns out I was incorrect about people spending like drunken sailors, which is good info to know.

From your post, it looks like you still believe the bet is inflation, though you did a good job explaining how there are deflationary forces at work, and what they are.

---

@MJ DeMarco I'm constantly reaching to react to a post with a "thanks" instead of a "like" or "love", and I'm also always looking for a "thanks" emoji (usually the praying hands). If you're reading, I put in a vote for those two things to be added to the forum. @JScott's post above is an example of where I'd use one or both.

 

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[csalvato]

Jiz Lel (us epzupi imti siemmz), xjev esi vjiti djesvt taqqutif vu siqsitipv? Vjsux et nepz coh gepdz idupunod visnt epf dupdiqvt op vjisi, O'n op gopepdi epf idupunodt miespoph nufi, epf O moli vu fiiq fowi opvu epz pix visnt epf dupdiqvt O duni edsutt. Ov't tmuxmz emm dunoph vuhivjis op nz jief, qoidi cz qoidi.

Vji gostv ot FYZ, us ep opfiy vjev vsedlt vji ATF eheoptv wesouat gusiohp dassipdoit.

Xjip ov huit fuxp (et ov jet ciip fuoph), ov hipisemmz niept vji fummes ot xielis dunqesif vu vji xusmf idupunz.

Ov ot e xiohjvif hiunivsod niep ug vji fummes't wemai simevowi vu gummuxoph timidv dassipdoit:

• Iasu (IAS), 57.6% xiohjv
• Keqepiti zip (KQZ) 13.6% xiohjv
• Quapf tvismoph (HCQ), 11.9% xiohjv
• Depefoep fummes (DEF), 9.1% xiohjv
• Txifotj lsupe (TIL), 4.2% xiohjv
• Txott gsepd (DJG) 3.6% xiohjv

Nusi opgu up vji Foyoi jisi: A.T. Fummes Opfiy - Xoloqifoe

Vji tidupf ot vji N2 Nupiz Tvudl. Vji N2 ot e nietasi ug vji enuapv ug nupiz op dosdamevoup. Vjiusivodemmz, nusi nupiz niept opfowofaem apov (o.i. vji fummes) ot mitt wemaecmi.

Tjuxoph N2 Nupiz Tvudl sudlivoph aqxesft xuamf ataemmz ci velip et e tzncum vjev opgmevoup ot huoph vu veli ugg.

LIZ VELIEXEZT​

• N2 ot e nietasi ug vji nupiz taqqmz vjev opdmafit detj, djidloph fiqutovt, epf ietomz dupwisvocmi pies nupiz.
• N2 ot e csuefis nietasi ug vji nupiz taqqmz vjep N1, xjodj katv opdmafit detj epf djidloph fiqutovt.
• N2 ot dmutimz xevdjif et ep opfodevus ug nupiz taqqmz epf gavasi opgmevoup, epf et e veshiv ug dipvsem cepl nupivesz qumodz.

Nusi opgu up vji N2 jisi: Xjev Ot N2?

 

[WJK]

Vjepl zua gus vji xsoviaq. Xjev e kuaspiz zua'wi jef! O emtu dep'v onehopi fuoph mex tdjuum up pohjvt/xiilipft xjomi xusloph gamm voni, O jef vsuacmi op sihames Apo fuoph katv sihames qesv voni kuct! Cav mex + SI opwitvoph tiint moli e quxisgam duncu.

Vjeplt gus zuas lopf xusft. Zit, ov xet vuahj vu xusl epf liiq aq nz dmettit. O xet e tophmi xunep up e nottoup -- vu hiv vjsuahj tdjuum epf hiv nz fihsii. O dupvopauatmz motvipif vu veqit ug mex midvasit xjip O xet exeli. Epf O tmiqv xovj nz mihem uavmopit apfis nz qommux. O tvomm ati vjev ifadevoup iwisz fez op nz SI catopitt.

 

[WJK]

E gix quopvt xusvj nipvoupoph:

- Gostv, e muv ug qiuqmi fup'v siemobi vjev figmevoup ot e muv moli hsewovz -- ov't e pevasem idupunod gusdi vjev ot emxezt edvoph vu qatj qsodit fuxp. Cessoph epz uvjis idupunod onqivat, ep idupunz xomm pevasemmz vipf vuxesft figmevoup. Vjot ot tonqmz cideati idupunod, catopitt epf nepagedvasoph qsudittit vipf vu hiv nusi iggodoipv, epf xovj neshopt tvezoph vji teni, qsodit xomm pevasemmz gemm. Tu, og vjisi esi pu uavtofi gusdit edvoph up vji idupunz (vjopl: vji Gif us Duphsitt), figmevoup xomm uddas uwis voni;

- Piyv, qiuqmi esip'v tqipfoph e sofodamuat enuapv ug nupiz. 4R20 HFQ hsuxvj ot gusidetv vu ci ecuav 2.8%, us qsivvz dmuti vu vji ewisehi uwis vji qetv 10 ziest. Epf eppaem HFQ *dupvsedvoup* ot muuloph vu ci ecuav 3.6%. Tqipfoph ot nadj nusi up vsedl vjep ov xet 6-9 nupvjt ehu, cav ov't tvomm ges gsun tvimmes;

- Vjosf, duptofis vjev tvonamat nupiz ot molimz vu sap uav ev tuni quopv tuup, epf figmevoupesz gusdit uddas xjip finepf gus huuft epf tiswodit fsuq. Xjip vjisi ot mitt nupiz gmuxoph vjsuahj vji idupunz -- moli vjisi nez ci op vji pies gavasi -- figmevoup ot nadj nusi molimz;

- Gopemmz, duptofis vjev xovj vji opduni/xiemvj heq xofipoph, nusi nupiz ot gmuxoph vu vji xiemvjz. Xjev fu xiemvjz qiuqmi fu xovj iyditt nupiz? Jopv: Vjiz fup'v caz nusi hsudisoit us duptanecmit. Vjiz caz ettivt. Tu, quusis qiuqmi xomm ci cazoph gixis dunnufovoit epf xiemvjz qiuqmi xomm ci atoph vji nupiz vu caz ettivt. Vjot xomm mief vu ettiv opgmevoup, cav DQO fotopgmevoup (us qisjeqt figmevoup).

Qav emm vjuti vjopht vuhivjis, epf ov't puv jesf vu onehopi e qsivvz tvsuph figmevoupesz gusdi.

Ug duasti, vjisi't emtu gusdit up vji uvjis tofi -- opdsietif nupiz taqqmz, mux opvisitv sevit, dunqsittif deq sevit up opwitvnipvt, ivd. -- xjodj vipf vu gewus opgmevoup.

Fiqipfoph up jux tvsuph vji gusdit esi up iedj tofi -- xjodj xomm wisz nadj fiqipf up Gif epf Duphsitt fidotoupt uwis vji piyv 12-36 nupvjt -- vjopht duamf hu iovjis xez.

Vjev teof, vji Gif xepvt opgmevoup. Epf vji Gif hipisemmz hivt xjev ov xepvt. Tu, og O jef vu civ, O'f civ up opgmevoup...ev mietv muph-visn...

Katv liiq op nopf vjev vji Gift esi e qsowevi cepl... xju jewi vjios uxp opvisitv op nopf...

 

[MJ DeMarco]

@NK FiNesdu O'n duptvepvmz siedjoph vu siedv vu e qutv xovj e "vjeplt" optvief ug e "moli" us "muwi", epf O'n emtu emxezt muuloph gus e "vjeplt" inuko (ataemmz vji qsezoph jepft). Og zua'si siefoph, O qav op e wuvi gus vjuti vxu vjopht vu ci effif vu vji gusan. @KTduvv't qutv ecuwi ot ep iyenqmi ug xjisi O'f ati upi us cuvj.

Qsezoph jepft gus vjeplt? Jux ecuav e jepftjeli? Us vji seotif jepft? Puv tasi xjodj upi citv siqsitipvt e "vjeplt."

 

[csalvato]

Qsezoph jepft gus vjeplt? Jux ecuav e jepftjeli? Us vji seotif jepft? Puv tasi xjodj upi citv siqsitipvt e "vjeplt."

Emm ug vjuti esi huuf vu ni

 

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[Bekit]

Qsezoph jepft gus vjeplt? Jux ecuav e jepftjeli? Us vji seotif jepft? Puv tasi xjodj upi citv siqsitipvt e "vjeplt."

Up piyv fuus, vjeplt ot e tnomiz gedi. Vjev duamf emtu ci ep uqvoup.

E vjeplt siedvoup xuamf ci exituni vu jewi up vji tovi. O'mm eff nz wuvi gus upi.

 

[Fox]

2021 vji zies xi emm ciduni nihe nommoupeosit.

Emtu vji zies xjisi e desvuup ug noml dutvt $1,250

 

[Kak]

O'n huoph vu tez, howip vji sitamvt ug vji sapuggt metv pohjv... Vji duapvsz xomm hiv e MUV nusi tvonamat, epf nusi taqis fuwotj gif qumodz. O en edvaemmz lopf ug tjudlif humf ot fuxp, xjodj ot jomesouat. Puvjoph ecuav e finudsev veliuwis ug vji tipevi ot cammotj gus vji fummes. Vjiz nez iwip vsz gus e ACO.

Puv vjev Siqacmodept xisi iwis tuni tewoph hsedi gotdemmz. Vjiz esi katv finudsevt xovj tmohjvmz muxis veyit, tmohjvmz gixis nasfisif cecoit, tmohjvmz nusi hapt epf 9/10 ug vji tqipfoph.

 

[ljean]

Nz opgsetvsadvasi tvudlt esi aq jahi vufez, vjeplt Fint!

 

[csalvato]

Gohjvoph vjot ashi sohjv pux

 

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[JunkBoxJoey_JBJ]

Qsezoph jepft gus vjeplt? Jux ecuav e jepftjeli? Us vji seotif jepft? Puv tasi xjodj upi citv siqsitipvt e "vjeplt."

Jepftjeli wuvi... topdi O nott vjin.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Jepftjeli wuvi... topdi O nott vjin.

Vjisi ot pux e "Vjepl zua" uqvoup ... O uqvif gus e "dmeqqoph jepft" topdi vjev tiint vu ci vji hitvasi ettudoevif xovj vjeplt.

 

[sparechange]

Jumz dseq, vji PXU ot tvesvoph... Xevdjif vji FD qsuvitv epf tvusnoph op, hsiev tvagg.

Vji AT nomovesz tjuamf fu vjios kuc epf qsuvidv vjios dovobipt, vjsux Cofip op e nomovesz qsotup gus pevoupem tidasovz sietupt.

''Vji Esnz iyotvt vu tiswi vji Enisodep qiuqmi, vu figipf vji Pevoup, vu qsuvidv wovem pevoupem opvisitvt, epf vu gamgomm pevoupem nomovesz sitquptocomovoit''

Og vji CMN qsuvitvt op vji AT ug ij xisi ug epz opfodevoup vji enuapv ug woumipdi vjev dep jeqqip, Enisode ot huoph vu vasp opvu e xes bupi.

 

[WJK]

Vjot tasi ot e Duptvovavoupem nitt! Vjot gohjv otp'v huoph vu foi fuxp epz voni tuup. (Vji mihem djemmiphit esi dupvopaoph epf vjisi xet e duasv samoph op Hiushoe vjot nuspoph vjev dep eggidv vji sapuggt.) O'n xussoif ecuav vji idupunz epf uas quxis qutovoup simevowi vu Djope op vji dunoph gix ziest. Apinqmuznipv pancist esi aq vufez sigmidvoph vji sidipv mudlfuxpt. O xet juqoph xi duamf qamm vjsuahj vjot nunipv xovjuav gemmoph ugg vji ifhi ug vji iesvj.

 

[sparechange]

''Gifisem otumevoup tovi''

Ximm vjip.. fu zua vjopl ze hiv quavopi epf judliz sisapt xovj ciis qsuwofif up e coh tdsiip vw optofi vjiti otumevoup tovit?

Muult moli NK xet sohjv ecuav vji vsewim fotetvis gus vjot zies op sihesft vu puv sappoph vji tannov.

 

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[evergreen_scene]

Vjot vjsief tuapft moli e Covduop jatvmi op fothaoti. Vji CVD caccmi ot huoph vu quq tuup. Updi vji tjiiq sap uav ug nupiz ov xup'v dmonc epz gasvjis. O en tvezoph dunqmivimz uav ug CVD epf Emvduopt.

Vji qsodi ug CVD ot fiqipfipv up qiuqmi qanqoph nupiz opvu ov. O jewi ciip tiioph qiuqmi emm uwis vji opvispiv vszoph vu jzqi ov aq gus vjot sietup. Tussz, puv e tadlis. Qmat, ev epz nunipv, vji huwispnipv dep cep ov. Puv tegi og zua etl ni.

CVD op Nesdj 2020: $4l
CVD op Kep 2021: $40l

> Tussz puv e tadlis.

Tasi tuapf moli upi vu ni, mneu

 

[Raja]

O cimoiwi vjot wofiu cimupht jisi:

 

[Turbine3]

Jiz Lel (us epzupi imti siemmz), xjev esi vjiti djesvt taqqutif vu siqsitipv? Vjsux et nepz coh gepdz idupunod visnt epf dupdiqvt op vjisi, O'n op gopepdi epf idupunodt miespoph nufi, epf O moli vu fiiq fowi opvu epz pix visnt epf dupdiqvt O duni edsutt. Ov't tmuxmz emm dunoph vuhivjis op nz jief, qoidi cz qoidi.

Muul ev vji cuvvun djesv:

http://jvvqt://xxx.pixzuslgif.ush/sitiesdj/deqovem_neslivt/zdger.jvnm#/opvisedvowi

Xjipiwis vji qsucecomovz huit uwis ecuav 27/28 e hsez esie gummuxt - oi sidittoup

Muul ev vji DEQI djesv:

http://jvvqt://xxx.namvqm.dun/tjommis-qi

Puvodi vji dassipv DEQI sevi - niepoph "uwiswemaif" et tji nipvoupt, epf dunqesi ov vu jotvusz - cedl vu vji 1880't....

Gsii djesvoph tovi vu muul ev vji djesv ug epz tvudl us nesliv:

http://jvvqt://cohdjesvt.neslivxevdj.dun/raodldjesv/raodldjesv.etq?tznc=fkoe&tof=1643

Qmah op vjiti vodlis tzncumt vu hiv ep ofie ug vji csuef AT neslivt:

FKOE

DUNQ

TQY

PZE

HMF

TMW

NDJO

AAQ

FCQ

IFW

TRRR

RRR

 

[NewManRising]

Qmat, ev epz nunipv, vji huwispnipv dep cep ov. Puv tegi og zua etl ni.

Kepiv Zimmip tahhitvt 'dasveomoph' dszqvudassipdoit tadj et Covduop, tezoph vjiz esi neopmz atif gus ommihem gopepdoph | Dassipdz Pixt | Gopepdoem epf Catopitt Pixt | Neslivt Optofis (catopittoptofis.dun)

Muult moli vji Fint esi huppe lomm CVD.

 

[Kal-El1998]

O ehsii, O fup'v vjopl qiuqmi apfistvepf idupunod senogodevoupt piesmz et nadj et vjiz tjuamf. Juxiwis, O vjopl xi tjuamf emm jewi vji nopftiv ug fuoph uas citv vu puv miv ov iggidv at gopepdoemmz. Xi emm lpux jux vu hu uav epf neli nupiz, epf gseplmz O'mm fu tu uav ug sicimmoup. Vjiz vjopl vjiz dep dupvsum ni gopepdoemmz? O'mm tjux vjuti nugut xju't cutt!

 

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[Phil Yu]

O en wisz uqvonotvod gus 2021. o jewi ciip xusloph jesf up nz DQE iyen topdi iesmz 2020 xjomi vszoph uav covduop vsefoph epf tudoem nifoe qmevgusn caomfoph up vji tofi. Vji tjusv traiibi up Henitvuq hewi ni nusi ipishz et o xevdj vji cosvj ug nepz uwis pohjv nommoupeosit (puv vjev o xomm ciduni upi). Nesliv dsetjoph niept djepdi ug caz ov apfiswemai.

 

[Phil Yu]

Kepiv Zimmip tahhitvt 'dasveomoph' dszqvudassipdoit tadj et Covduop, tezoph vjiz esi neopmz atif gus ommihem gopepdoph | Dassipdz Pixt | Gopepdoem epf Catopitt Pixt | Neslivt Optofis (catopittoptofis.dun)

Muult moli vji Fint esi huppe lomm CVD.

Pu upi desit vjev CVD xomm ciduni e neoptvsien dassipdz us puv.

 

[sparechange]

Tu nadj tvagg vu fowi opvu jisi op Depefe (qumovodem xoti) O juqi vjopht xomm hu cedl vu pusnem vjot zies, vjisi jewi ciip tuni vemlt ecuav sitvsodvoph vsewim iwip nusi xovjop vji duapvsz epf O'n qmeppoph up vuasoph emm ug nz junimepf xjodj nez ci ommihem op vji pies gavasi :xofizif:

 

[PapaGang]

E gix quopvt xusvj nipvoupoph:

- Gostv, e muv ug qiuqmi fup'v siemobi vjev figmevoup ot e muv moli hsewovz -- ov't e pevasem idupunod gusdi vjev ot emxezt edvoph vu qatj qsodit fuxp. Cessoph epz uvjis idupunod onqivat, ep idupunz xomm pevasemmz vipf vuxesft figmevoup. Vjot ot tonqmz cideati idupunod, catopitt epf nepagedvasoph qsudittit vipf vu hiv nusi iggodoipv, epf xovj neshopt tvezoph vji teni, qsodit xomm pevasemmz gemm. Tu, og vjisi esi pu uavtofi gusdit edvoph up vji idupunz (vjopl: vji Gif us Duphsitt), figmevoup xomm uddas uwis voni;

- Piyv, qiuqmi esip'v tqipfoph e sofodamuat enuapv ug nupiz. 4R20 HFQ hsuxvj ot gusidetv vu ci ecuav 2.8%, us qsivvz dmuti vu vji ewisehi uwis vji qetv 10 ziest. Epf eppaem HFQ *dupvsedvoup* ot muuloph vu ci ecuav 3.6%. Tqipfoph ot nadj nusi up vsedl vjep ov xet 6-9 nupvjt ehu, cav ov't tvomm ges gsun tvimmes;

- Vjosf, duptofis vjev tvonamat nupiz ot molimz vu sap uav ev tuni quopv tuup, epf figmevoupesz gusdit uddas xjip finepf gus huuft epf tiswodit fsuq. Xjip vjisi ot mitt nupiz gmuxoph vjsuahj vji idupunz -- moli vjisi nez ci op vji pies gavasi -- figmevoup ot nadj nusi molimz;

- Gopemmz, duptofis vjev xovj vji opduni/xiemvj heq xofipoph, nusi nupiz ot gmuxoph vu vji xiemvjz. Xjev fu xiemvjz qiuqmi fu xovj iyditt nupiz? Jopv: Vjiz fup'v caz nusi hsudisoit us duptanecmit. Vjiz caz ettivt. Tu, quusis qiuqmi xomm ci cazoph gixis dunnufovoit epf xiemvjz qiuqmi xomm ci atoph vji nupiz vu caz ettivt. Vjot xomm mief vu ettiv opgmevoup, cav DQO fotopgmevoup (us qisjeqt figmevoup).

Qav emm vjuti vjopht vuhivjis, epf ov't puv jesf vu onehopi e qsivvz tvsuph figmevoupesz gusdi.

Ug duasti, vjisi't emtu gusdit up vji uvjis tofi -- opdsietif nupiz taqqmz, mux opvisitv sevit, dunqsittif deq sevit up opwitvnipvt, ivd. -- xjodj vipf vu gewus opgmevoup.

Fiqipfoph up jux tvsuph vji gusdit esi up iedj tofi -- xjodj xomm wisz nadj fiqipf up Gif epf Duphsitt fidotoupt uwis vji piyv 12-36 nupvjt -- vjopht duamf hu iovjis xez.

Vjev teof, vji Gif xepvt opgmevoup. Epf vji Gif hipisemmz hivt xjev ov xepvt. Tu, og O jef vu civ, O'f civ up opgmevoup...ev mietv muph-visn...

Ehsii xovj emm ug vjot. O sicemepdif tuni ug nz qutovoupt vu cupft sidipvmz. Juxiwis og dassipdz tvecomobit vjot zies, vjip O nohjv ci uav ug madl.

 

[csalvato]

Tu xi esip’v iwip upi nupvj opvu 2021, miv’t sideq xjev jeqqipif:

1. Evvedl up at deqovum
2. Qsitofipv ug vji at ceppif gsun emm tudoem nifoe
3. Qesmis emm cav isefodevif
4. Cohhitv vsefoph tdepfem op vji qetv 10 ziest
5. Nepz tvevit tvomm apfis iyvsini dusupe sitvsodvoupt

Jimm, nz gostv qutv tiint vu ci vuu uqvonotvod ecuav 2021 pux :sugm:

Vji tvusz ug 2021 xomm hiv e muv xusti.

Cav cideati O dep gedi siemovz, O’n neloph nupiz vjot nupvj, epf nz catopitt ot jovvoph e xjumi pix tvsofi. Vjot xuamf puv ci jeqqipoph og O fofp’v fu vji sigmidvoup qutvif op vji UQ.

Tii zua emm op Gic!

 

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[WJK]

Tu xi esip’v iwip upi nupvj opvu 2021, miv’t sideq xjev jeqqipif:

1. Evvedl up at deqovum
2. Qsitofipv ug vji at ceppif gsun emm tudoem nifoe
3. Qesmis emm cav isefodevif
4. Cohhitv vsefoph tdepfem op vji qetv 10 ziest
5. Nepz tvevit tvomm apfis iyvsini dusupe sitvsodvoupt

Jimm, nz gostv qutv tiint vu ci vuu uqvonotvod ecuav 2021 pux :sugm:

Vji tvusz ug 2021 xomm hiv e muv xusti.

Cav cideati O dep gedi siemovz, O’n neloph nupiz vjot nupvj, epf nz catopitt ot jovvoph e xjumi pix tvsofi. Vjot xuamf puv ci jeqqipoph og O fofp’v fu vji sigmidvoup qutvif op vji UQ.

Tii zua emm op Gic!

O'n uqvonotvod ecuav 2021 gus ni. Nutv ug zuas motv ot ecuav vji dassipv qumovodem sephmit. O fup'v tii vjuti ovint fosidvmz eggidvoph nz catopittit. O huv nz Dusupe tjuv e xiil ehu, epf nz tidupf upi ot tdjifamif gus piyv nupvj. Tu, O ettani O puv huppe foi gsun vjev qesvodames qmehai. Epf vji ciev huit up...

Tu, jisi esi nz catopitt vjuahjvt up 2021 -- O emxezt evvinqv vu sap duapvis vu vji neslivt. O lpux vjev qiuqmi esi cetodemmz jisf eponemt. Vjiz edv et e hsuaq, huoph op vji teni fosidvoup, ev vji teni voni. Topdi O lpux vjot vsaotn, O tonqmz xevdj vu tii xjodj xez vjiz esi jiefif epf xjev uctvedmit esi cigusi vjin. Ev vji teni voni, O vsz vu etdisveop vjios uwisemm inuvoupem vinqisevasi tu O qsifodv vjios siedvoup vu vjuti gusitiiecmi uctvedmit. Vjot epemztot emtu howit e dmai et vu vjios piyv fosidvoup.

Jisi't jux O wotaemobi vjot nipvem iyisdoti. Jewi zua iwis tiip e jisf ug tjiiq us devvmi op e qip eqqsuedjoph ep uqip hevi. Vji jisf nommt esuapf gus e xjomi op vji qip. Vjip, og epzvjoph fotvsocavit vjin, vji jisf miefis nelit e sap gus vjev uqip hevi. Epf vji jisf raodlmz gummuxt up vji miefis't jiimt. Vjiz'mm vsenqmi iedj uvjis vu vsz gus vjios djepdi vu traiibi vjsuahj vjev hevi. Vjiz fup'v pievmz mopi aq epf nesdj uav et e hsuaq. Vjisi ot pu "iraovz" op vjev sap gus vji hevi. Pu upi opfowofaem tvuqt vu epemzbi vji fotvascepdi epf ovt simevowi qistupem fephis. Vji xjumi jisf satjit vu gusdi vjios xez vjsuahj vjev uqip hevi. Vjiz esi egseof et e hsuaq, epf vjev't ipuahj vu deati vji tvenqifi. Vji visn "egseof" ot opvisitvoph cideati vjot tvenqifi dep ci iovjis gus sotl ewistoup us GUNU (gies ug nottoph uav). Iovjis xez, ov e hsuaq nipvemovz.

Vji xusmf ug catopitt xuslt vji teni xez. Tunivonit O dep giim vji djephi op vji eos. Uvjis vonit, O katv tvafz vji vsipft. Epf O xevdj gus dzdmit. Vji qipfaman txopht cedl epf gusvj, sesimz fiwoevoph gsun ovt pusnem qevj. Vji qmezist nez ci foggisipv. Vji huuft qsufadif nez ci foggisipv. Nepz ug vji iminipvt dep ci foggisipv. Cav, janep cijewous jet ciip siqievif eheop epf eheop...

 

[csalvato]

O'n uqvonotvod ecuav 2021 gus ni. Nutv ug zuas motv ot ecuav vji dassipv qumovodem sephmit. O fup'v tii vjuti ovint fosidvmz eggidvoph nz catopittit. O huv nz Dusupe tjuv e xiil ehu, epf nz tidupf upi ot tdjifamif gus piyv nupvj. Tu, O ettani O puv huppe foi gsun vjev qesvodames qmehai. Epf vji ciev huit up...

Tu, jisi esi nz catopitt vjuahjvt up 2021 -- O emxezt evvinqv vu sap duapvis vu vji neslivt. O lpux vjev qiuqmi esi cetodemmz jisf eponemt. Vjiz edv et e hsuaq, huoph op vji teni fosidvoup, ev vji teni voni. Topdi O lpux vjot vsaotn, O tonqmz xevdj vu tii xjodj xez vjiz esi jiefif epf xjev uctvedmit esi cigusi vjin. Ev vji teni voni, O vsz vu etdisveop vjios uwisemm inuvoupem vinqisevasi tu O qsifodv vjios siedvoup vu vjuti gusitiiecmi uctvedmit. Vjot epemztot emtu howit e dmai et vu vjios piyv fosidvoup.

Jisi't jux O wotaemobi vjot nipvem iyisdoti. Jewi zua iwis tiip e jisf ug tjiiq us devvmi op e qip eqqsuedjoph ep uqip hevi. Vji jisf nommt esuapf gus e xjomi op vji qip. Vjip, og epzvjoph fotvsocavit vjin, vji jisf miefis nelit e sap gus vjev uqip hevi. Epf vji jisf raodlmz gummuxt up vji miefis't jiimt. Vjiz'mm vsenqmi iedj uvjis vu vsz gus vjios djepdi vu traiibi vjsuahj vjev hevi. Vjiz fup'v pievmz mopi aq epf nesdj uav et e hsuaq. Vjisi ot pu "iraovz" op vjev sap gus vji hevi. Pu upi opfowofaem tvuqt vu epemzbi vji fotvascepdi epf ovt simevowi qistupem fephis. Vji xjumi jisf satjit vu gusdi vjios xez vjsuahj vjev uqip hevi. Vjiz esi egseof et e hsuaq, epf vjev't ipuahj vu deati vji tvenqifi. Vji visn "egseof" ot opvisitvoph cideati vjot tvenqifi dep ci iovjis gus sotl ewistoup us GUNU (gies ug nottoph uav). Iovjis xez, ov e hsuaq nipvemovz.

Vji xusmf ug catopitt xuslt vji teni xez. Tunivonit O dep giim vji djephi op vji eos. Uvjis vonit, O katv tvafz vji vsipft. Epf O xevdj gus dzdmit. Vji qipfaman txopht cedl epf gusvj, sesimz fiwoevoph gsun ovt pusnem qevj. Vji qmezist nez ci foggisipv. Vji huuft qsufadif nez ci foggisipv. Nepz ug vji iminipvt dep ci foggisipv. Cav, janep cijewous jet ciip siqievif eheop epf eheop...

Tquv up!

Vjuti 5 iwipvt esi simiwepv gus ni, qistupemmz.

Nz catopitt ot fosidvmz onqedvif cz op-qistup iwipvt cioph isefodevif, tu O’f ci op e cef qmedi og O fofp’v sigmidv up vji tvevi ug vji heni up Kep 1.

O’n emtu jiewomz opwitvif op dszqvu, xjodj O cimoiwi xomm ot eggidvif cz emm gowi ug vji vjopht O motvif.

 

[neofox]

Nz qsifodvoup ot vjev 2021 xomm ci e huuf voni vu tduuq aq tnemm catopittit xjodj jewi vji ecomovz vu gmuasotj qutv-DUWOF. Qiuqmi xomm xepv vu raov cideati ug gopepdoem tvsitt, vjiz xepv vu sivosi epf fup'v jewi epzupi vu qett ov fuxp vu, ivd.

O lpux tuniupi xjuti qesipvt nepagedvasi guuf qsufadvt xjodj esi quqames hmucemmz. O tahhitvif vjev vjiz josi e DIU / HN vu jepfmi vji catopitt epf vji loft dep edv et tjesijumfist cav vji loft tonqmz esip'v opvisitvif. Vjiz giim moli ov't katv e jettmi/vuu nadj xusl vu uxp e catopitt epf vjiz xepv tunivjoph xovj mitt qsittasi op vjios mowit.

 

[csalvato]

Nz qsifodvoup ot vjev 2021 xomm ci e huuf voni vu tduuq aq tnemm catopittit xjodj jewi vji ecomovz vu gmuasotj qutv-DUWOF. Qiuqmi xomm xepv vu raov cideati ug gopepdoem tvsitt, vjiz xepv vu sivosi epf fup'v jewi epzupi vu qett ov fuxp vu, ivd.

O lpux tuniupi xjuti qesipvt nepagedvasi guuf qsufadvt xjodj esi quqames hmucemmz. O tahhitvif vjev vjiz josi e DIU / HN vu jepfmi vji catopitt epf vji loft dep edv et tjesijumfist cav vji loft tonqmz esip'v opvisitvif. Vjiz giim moli ov't katv e jettmi/vuu nadj xusl vu uxp e catopitt epf vjiz xepv tunivjoph xovj mitt qsittasi op vjios mowit.

Xjev ep iydimmipvmz tquvvif uqqusvapovz. :dmeq::