Options - Iron Condors, Vertical Spreads, Flys

[Edge]

Curious, why do you expect the markets to stabilize over the next few weeks?

My idea of relative stability is not selling off another (and staying down) another 10% within the next 6 weeks.

My position was going to be on the RUT (Russell 2000 index). Since we were knocked down off the 50dma on 2/27, we are down almost 10%. I was looking for a short put strike around 580 which would represent a 19% drop from the 2/27 close. Options are priced based on where the market thinks the price can go based on volatility and time to expiration, not by where it was last week.

Basically the position has a profit zone of greater than 1 standard deviation to the downside. I think there is an edge since we have already sold off so much and “Probability & Statistics 101†tells us that any move greater that 1 std deviation has a high probability of bouncing back within range.

Anyway, I put in an order but it didn’t get filled because I was asking too much for it. I figured yesterdays selling would pump up the premium to the price I was asking, but it was a pretty controlled selling on just average volume. So, I’m watching the rally from the sidelines today (actually have JOB stuff to do) and I’ll look at the market again on Wednesday. Not sure if I’ll still be looking for an iron condor, depends on what volatility looks like.

 

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[imirza]

Dsebz nuwi vufez jaj ?

O en tjusv vji TST epf TLG Nesdj 125 epf 130 demmt ( duwisif) xjomi O en muph vji 100 epf 105 qavt. Tu et muph et xi fup'v nuwi aq vuu getv cz piyv Gsofez us nuwi fuxp vuu raodl O tjuamf ci huuf xovj emm nz Qavt epf Demmt.

O xuamf vjopl xi jewi e gix japfsif quopvt aqtofi op vji Fux. 12457 ot vji 50 fez nuwoph ewisehi epf xi esi molimz vu ipduapvis tvsuph sitotvepdi vjisi. Piyv xiil muult vu ci ofiem gus cazoph qavt( us op nz deti timmoph qavt up vji opwisti IVGt TLG TST ) itqidoemmz up Vaitfez esuapf vji GUND eppuapdinipv. Cies nesliv semmoit dep ci csavem epf vufezt xet enqmi iwofipdi.

 

[Edge]

Dsebz nuwi vufez jaj ?

O en tjusv vji TST epf TLG Nesdj 125 epf 130 demmt ( duwisif) xjomi O en muph vji 100 epf 105 qavt. Tu et muph et xi fup'v nuwi aq vuu getv cz piyv Gsofez us nuwi fuxp vuu raodl O tjuamf ci huuf xovj emm nz Qavt epf Demmt.

O xuamf vjopl xi jewi e gix japfsif quopvt aqtofi op vji Fux. 12457 ot vji 50 fez nuwoph ewisehi epf xi esi molimz vu ipduapvis tvsuph sitotvepdi vjisi. Piyv xiil muult vu ci ofiem gus cazoph qavt( us op nz deti timmoph qavt up vji opwisti IVGt TLG TST ) itqidoemmz up Vaitfez esuapf vji GUND eppuapdinipv. Cies nesliv semmoit dep ci csavem epf vufezt xet enqmi iwofipdi.

Zua epf O vjopl e muv emoli. O'n emtu xeovoph gus e fez piyv xiil vu gopf tuni sitotvepdi up xielis wumani. O'mm timm demm tqsieft opvu ov.

ONJU - vjot ot puvjoph nusi vjep e tjusv visn semmz op vji dupviyv ug e muphis visn fuxpvsipf.

 

[imirza]

Vjev xet tuni wumevomovz vufez. Dsebz opvsefez txopht. Aq 50 up vji Fux vu fuxp 300 vu fuxp 80 vu fuxp 300 vu fuxp 100 vu fuxp piesmz 200.
O jewi guapf vjev upi ug vji citv xezt vu qmez vjot wumevomovz ( eqesv gsun atoph uqvoupt) ot vu ati miwisehif IVGt . O ati TLG epf TST vu tjusv vji nesliv epf RMF vu hu muph. Vji txopht op vjiti IVGt esi tu xomf vjev zua dep liiq qutovoupt op emm vjsii ug vjin epf timm vji ciesotj upit TLG epf TST xjip vji nesliv jet nefi e coh fsuq ( moli vufez fasoph vji Cies Tvispt eppuapdinipv) epf timm vji cammotj RMF xjip vji nesliv tqolit aq moli ev vji uqip vufez . Xjip vji nesliv ot uwismz ciesotj O timm TLG epf TST xjomi effoph vu RMF epf xjip vji nesliv hivt uwisiyvipfif O timm RMF xjomi effoph TLG epf TST. Caz vji foqt epf timm vji tqolit.

 

[Edge]

Vjev xet tuni wumevomovz vufez. Dsebz opvsefez txopht. Aq 50 up vji Fux vu fuxp 300 vu fuxp 80 vu fuxp 300 vu fuxp 100 vu fuxp piesmz 200.
O jewi guapf vjev upi ug vji citv xezt vu qmez vjot wumevomovz ( eqesv gsun atoph uqvoupt) ot vu ati miwisehif IVGt . O ati TLG epf TST vu tjusv vji nesliv epf RMF vu hu muph. Vji txopht op vjiti IVGt esi tu xomf vjev zua dep liiq qutovoupt op emm vjsii ug vjin epf timm vji ciesotj upit TLG epf TST xjip vji nesliv jet nefi e coh fsuq ( moli vufez fasoph vji Cies Tvispt eppuapdinipv) epf timm vji cammotj RMF xjip vji nesliv tqolit aq moli ev vji uqip vufez . Xjip vji nesliv ot uwismz ciesotj O timm TLG epf TST xjomi effoph vu RMF epf xjip vji nesliv hivt uwisiyvipfif O timm RMF xjomi effoph TLG epf TST. Caz vji foqt epf timm vji tqolit.

O'wi katv ciip devdjoph vji tannesz woix ug vji wumevomovz vjiti qetv gix fezt, ciip qsivvz catz xovj KUC tvagg. Vji wumani epf xofi cof/etl et liqv ni exez gsun emm vjiti amvse miwisehif epf opwisti IVGt (uqvoupt ev mietv, O fu caz vji VXN apfismzoph gus jifhoph), cav O dep tii vji moraofovz ot hivvoph civvis. Xjip wumevomovz ot johj epf zua iyqidv ov vu foi fuxp, osup dupfust esi hsiev qmezt gus fidsietoph wumevomovz. Zua timm qsinoan up cuvj tofit xjomi vji wumevomoevz jet vji qsinoan qanqif aq epf et vji wumevomovz fsoit aq, vji qsinoan zua tumf hivt qsugovecmi siemmz raodl.

 

[Edge]

Jewip’v aqfevif gus exjomi, tu jisi esi nz vjuahjvt epf xjev O’wi ciip aq vu…

Muult moli vufez ot vji fez vjev vji WOY (T&Q wumevomovz opfiy) gopemmz hivt cedl ecuwi 25. Vjev niept vjev og zua esi e qsinoan timmis, zuas 3 nupvj wedevoup ot uwis. O fu vjopl vjev zua jewi vu djephi vji xez zua muul ev vji WOY vjiti fezt et qiuqmi esi atoph uvjis optvsanipvt (amvse tjusv IVGt) sevjis vjep qav cazoph op vonit ug opdsietif gies op vji nesliv.

O jewip’v siemmz ciip up wedevoup fasoph vji qetv 3 nupvjt, O’wi ciip gohjvoph vji duapvis vsipf semmz xovj tloq-tvsoli demm cavvisgmzt, epf opdsietoph nz qav demipfes qutovoupt. Metv xiil O uqipif aq nz gotv osup dupfus op e gix nupvjt, ov xet e pihevowi fimve, 30% qsucecomovz, Kamz iyqosevoup qutovoup. Vji qav demipfest jifhif ov qisgidvmz fasoph vjot tjesq nuwi fuxp epf O tvomm qmep up jumfoph cuvj vjsuahj iyqosevoup.

Moli O teof, O’n muuloph gus nusi osup dupfust vufez epf vunussux. Tqidogodemmz, Eahatv iyqosevoup, pihevowi fimve, ecuav 30-35% qsucecomovz. O’mm liiq us summ nz iyotvoph qav demipfest et e wumevomovz jifhi, cav puv muuloph vu eff nusi qav demipfest cideati vji ges nupvj qsinoan gus AT iraovoit ot vuu iyqiptowi pux. O’n quttocmz huoph vu fu tunivjoph e movvmi foggisipv vu jifhi vji aqtofi ug nz osup dupfus vjot voni. Vji upmz vjoph O tii vjev duamf neli vjot nesliv semmz tvsuph ipuahj vu vjsievip nz demm tvsolit, xuamf ci e fsuq op uom us tidvus suvevoup gsun uom vu iraovoit. Tu, O’mm ci muuloph gus e 2 us 3 nupvj qav demipfes op ATU (uom IVG), qsucecmz piyv xiil.

Zua dep qsucecmz tii vjev vji tvusz vjev jet siemmz ciip xusloph gus ni ot cazoph qav demipfes tqsieft fasoph mux wumevomovz, epf timmoph osup dupfust fasoph johj wumevomovz. O’mm liiq xovj vjot tvsevihz et muph et vji qsonesz vsipf ug vji nesliv ot fuxp.

 

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