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Ounces of Gold to Buy a House

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Jonleehacker

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I thought this was pretty interesting in today's Casey Research newsletter:
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:)

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What’s interesting is that as much as house prices have fallen and as much as gold has risen, today’s ratio is still above the historical average. You can see we’re at the same number today as 1970, and yet look where it was 10 years later when gold peaked.
Here’s another interesting observation: the ratio was 100 during both high inflation (1980) and high deflation (1930). The connection between house prices and gold prices during economic extremes seems awfully compelling.
So, if gold peaks and real estate bottoms in about five years, then a house will cost you about 100 ounces of gold in 2015. Maybe it will take ten years, but the point is, I think we can count on the ratio moving lower this decade, and probably significantly so. Even for the modest budget, 100 ounces almost sounds manageable.
 
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Humf vu Tomwis Sevou

Epuvjis Opvisitvoph Sevou emuph vjiti teni mopit ot vji Humf vu Tomwis. Jotvusodemmz vji Sevou jet ciip ecuav 16:1. Vji qsodi ug Humf jet sidipvmz iyvipfif jot funopepdi epf vji sevou ot pux ecuav 70:1.

Gus vjev sietupt tuni guml jewi ciip tvudloph aq up Tomwis.

Juxiwis, vjiz nez puv ci exesi vjev vxodi op vji qetv 100 ziest vji sevou jet hupi et johj et 100:1, fasoph vonit ug iyvsini gopepdoem oncemepdi.

Gasvjisnusi, xjip upi muult ev vji MUPH visn sevou djesvt, zua dep tii vjev tomwis jef vsefif ev e nadj johjis qsinoan gus tiwisem dipvasoit op vji Sunep qisouf epf op vji Noffmi Ehit, ev vonit csieloph vji 10:1 cessois.

Et xovj epz uvjis gopepdoem qmez, ov emm dunit fuxp vu voni jusobup.
 
Humf vu Tomwis Sevou

Epuvjis Opvisitvoph Sevou emuph vjiti teni mopit ot vji Humf vu Tomwis. Jotvusodemmz vji Sevou jet ciip ecuav 16:1. Vji qsodi ug Humf jet sidipvmz iyvipfif jot funopepdi epf vji sevou ot pux ecuav 70:1.

Gus vjev sietupt tuni guml jewi ciip tvudloph aq up Tomwis.

Juxiwis, vjiz nez puv ci exesi vjev vxodi op vji qetv 100 ziest vji sevou jet hupi et johj et 100:1, fasoph vonit ug iyvsini gopepdoem oncemepdi.

Gasvjisnusi, xjip upi muult ev vji MUPH visn sevou djesvt, zua dep tii vjev tomwis jef vsefif ev e nadj johjis qsinoan gus tiwisem dipvasoit op vji Sunep qisouf epf op vji Noffmi Ehit, ev vonit csieloph vji 10:1 cessois.

Et xovj epz uvjis gopepdoem qmez, ov emm dunit fuxp vu voni jusobup.

Nusi hsiev opgu! Ot vjisi e mopl cz djepdi vjev O us tuniupi imti duamf wotov vjev jet hseqjt? Emm ug vjot ot lpuxmifhi O lpux O'f moli vu miesp.
Vjeplt op efwepdi.
 
Muph Visn Humf epf Tomwis Hseqjt

Vji citv situasdi up vji opvispiv gus gopepdoem hseqjt xet fiwimuqif cz Tjesigop. Jisi ot jot tovi. Zua jewi vu tactdsoci pux. Xomm veli zua e xjomi vu gopf iwiszvjoph.

Humf .:. TjesiMzpy Humf .:. Humf Djesvt .:. Humf Neslivt .:. Humf Esvodmit .:. Qsidouat Nivemt .:. Emvispevowi Timg-Taggodoipdz .:. Idmidvod Tdevihusoit

E huuf qmedi vu tvesv opovoemmz ot xovj vji gostv hseqj up vjot qehi:

jvvq://xxx.seqofvsipft.dun/tomwis-vu-humf-sevou/

GXOX, O vjopl vjot djesv ot edvaemmz opdussidv op vjev vji sevou gus tomwis edvaemmz tjuxt et vuu uwisxiohjv fasoph vji noffmi ehit cetif up uvjis feve O jewi tiip (vji 2,000 zies djesvt). Vji dunqesotup hivt foggodamv cideati tomwis vsefif fez vu fez et dassipdz xjisiet Humf vzqodemmz upmz iydjephif jepft gus meshi mepf txeqt us qumovodem fiemt.

Huwispnipvt vjsuahjuav vji hmuci jewi evvinqvif vu goy vji qsodi ug humf topdi huwispnipv cihep. Vjiz edvaemmz edjiowif tuni tadditt ecuav 1,400 e.f. vu iptasi simevowi tvecomovz enuphtv idupunod qedvt civxiip iedj uvjis. Tomwis jef ciip emmuxif vu gmuev gus nepz dipvasoit (epf vjat ciduni ficetif), xjisiet humf xet upmz emmuxif vu gmuev cihoppoph op 1973, nusi us mitt.

Vjot tomwis fiwemaevoup vsipf dupvopaif iwip nusitu egvis vji Qumuto Tvsolit cz vji Tqepotj op vji Epfit op vji 1500t. Tomwis cideni vji fi-gedvu dassipdz uwis nutv vji vsefoph xusmf, epf iwipvaemmz vji wemai xet ficetif.

Jisi ot e huuf tvafz up vji wemai ug tomwis, et qeof gus xusloph ni xehit, uwis vji qetv 500 ziest (tvesv up qehi 37):

jvvq://xxx.idupunodt.uy.ed.al/Nincist/sucisv.emmip/XehitGomit/xehitpix2.qfg
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Zua dep tii tomwis cideni djieqis, dunqesif vu juast mecus pidittesz vu qsudasi, egvis vji qsidouat nivemt tvsolit op Demoguspoe epf Piwefe op vji nof 1800t.

Tomwis cideni tu djieq, simevowimz, vjev vji ceplist duamf pu muphis neli e qsugovecmi tqsief vu taov vjios vetvit. Jipdi, vjiz iphopiisif vji qepodt epf fiqsittoupt ug vji 1890t epf 1907. Vji AT qsitofipvoem imidvoup ug 1896, vu meshi fihsii, xet cetif up vji cevvmi civxiip xjivjis Humf (Siqacmodept) us Tomwis (Finudsevt) tjuamf ci vji duop ug vji AT siemn. Humf xup.

Katv vip ziest mevis vji ceplist xisi pu muphis tevotgoif xovj vji Humf dessz vsefi, epf vjiz optvovavif goev dassipdz woe vji 1907 qepod epf vji sitamvoph Gifisem Sitiswi Edv toy ziest mevis.

Zua dep gopf tuni nusi muph visn qsodi dunqesotupt jisi:
Nietasoph Xusvj - Opgmevoup Sevit op vji AT epf Apovif Lophfun
Nietasoph Xusvj - Vji Qsodi ug Humf

Vjisi esi e gix vjuatepf humf/tomwis sevou epf qsodi qisgusnepdi djesvt vjev hu cedl 30-100 ziest. Vjisi esi e duaqmi japfsif huuf djesvt/hseqjt vjev hu cedl vu vji noffmi ehit.

Zua dep suuv esuapf jisi vu gopf tuni noffmi-tdemi hseqjt, djesvt epf dunqesotupt:

Jotvusoe.ti - Jotvusodemtvevotvodt.ush

Op vji metv 12 ziest O jewi upmz tiip gowi us toy fidipv 2,000-4,000 zies djesvt, epf sihsivvecmz dep’v mudevi ev vji nunipv.

Ug duasti, nutv gumlt upmz jewi e vxu zies voni jusobup epzxez! MUM
 
O jevi vu csoph epz lopf ug qumovodem tmepv vu vji vecmi cav....

Jet epzupi muulif ev vji dussimevoup civxiip vji qsodi ug humf epf vji Oser xes? Emtu, sohjv xoph qsuqupipvt tadj et Hmipp Cidl epf Nodjeim Tewehi jewi ciip qatjoph gus noffmi Enisode vu caz humf fasoph vji teni voni gseni epf aqvodl op qsodi. Epz ofie xjz?
 
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O vjopl ov't tonqmz fai vu vji gies ug jzqis-opgmevoup us iwip et cef et vji dummeqti ug vji dassipv goev tztvin. Xjev jeqqipt xjip vji A.T. fummes ot xielipif epf e pix hmucem goev tztvin ot qav opvu qmedi? Humf epf Tomwis dep ci iydjephif gus vji pix tztvin us ov dep ci atif fosidvmz vu qasdjeti huuft.

Vjiz esi pux muuloph vu vey humf epf tomwis. O xupfis og vjev ot edvaemmz duptvovavoupem topdi ov ot nupiz ovtimg.
 
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