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snowbank analyzes biophase poker hand

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snowbank

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Kenric posted a poker hand in his blog. I posted a comment and he thought I should post it here. Here you go:

Kenric's post about the hand:

"Second, my friend who is the professional poker player stayed with me during the week. I have to admit that having him sit next to me and coach me on how to play definitely inspires confidence.
I will give you one example which I had to sit down and figure out later.
Dealt to Kenric [Kh Qd]
Kenric: raises $0.60 to $0.80
3 folds
Villian: calls $0.60
*** FLOP *** [9d 7s Qh]
Villian: checks
Kenric: bets $1.00
Villian: raises $1.40 to $2.40
Kenric: calls $1.40

(I hope I remember this right, Bill please chime in if I butcher this analysis) AQ would check raise, maybe 99 or 77, but most likely those hands would just call. No other hand that would beat me should be here now. AA,KK would/should have reraised PF. Q7, Q9, 97 shouldn’t be here.
*** TURN *** [9d 7s Qh] [7h]
Villian: bets $3.25
Kenric: calls $3.25

With the turn bet, he ruled out 77 because quads would not bet here. He said that the villian was representing he had 99 with that bet.
*** RIVER *** [9d 7s Qh 7h] [8h]
Villian: bets $7.90
Kenric: calls $7.90

Villian made a nice size bet which I had to call.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villian: shows [Kc 6c] (Pair of Sevens)
Kenric: shows [Kh Qd] (Two Pairs, Queens and Sevens)
Kenric collected $27.40 from pot

Of course, I still don’t really understand this too well. But it took him about 1 second to read my opponent’s possible hands. I don’t think most people understand the type of detailed thought that goes into a split second decision of an online poker player."



my response:

"Ya, you had it pretty much right. AQ will usually call, but will sometimes check raise at these stakes. 99 and 77 are in the check-raising range. It’s a rainbow flop(3 different suits), so there’s no flush draw that would play it like this, and at these stakes semi-bluffing draws is not very common, so he’s basically repping 77 or 99 here. When the turn brings a 7, and he bets, it’s not necessarily that he wouldn’t bet quads, but that the chance that he actually has quads here is slim to none because he’d need the only 2 cards in the deck to make that happen, and we know he didn’t check-raise the flop with just one seven because he’d want to continue on cheaply with the hand because his 7 might be good, he wouldn’t want to bloat the pot. So on the turn, his hand is usually going to be 99, or a bluff. When he follows through on the river, his range doesn’t really change. He may have AQ, he may have 99, or he is bluffing. Also, one thing I don’t think I mentioned when you were playing the hand is that if he did have a Q here he may not fire on the river because a 7 is out there.(many players at the lower stakes won’t break down you’re range, to understand that a 7 is not in it once you call his check-raise on the flop), so you won’t see a Q very often from him, and a bluff is as likely if not more likely than 99, and you already have money in the pot. Many players at these stakes won’t realize that there’s nothing different about the texture of the board to make his bluff successful on the river when it wasn’t on the flop and turn. In other words, there’s no scare cards to scare you into a fold based on the fact that there were no flop flush draws, and he won’t realize this and often players like this will feel like they can bluff their way out of trouble, which is their only option unless they want to just give up, which they may not like in this hand."

i'll try and make a post soon about poker strategy to help people who might be starting out.
 
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ktduvv,

puv tasi og zua puvodif cav vjot ot e 5 jepfif heni. gumfoph LR qsi-gmuq xuamf ci e nupanipvem notveli. et ges vji sitv ug vji jepf, zuas muhod tiint vu ci tiwisimz gmexif.(puv niepoph vjev vu tuapf niep, puv tasi jux imti vu xsovi ov) zua xuamf piwis ci 3 civvoph vji gmuq jisi cideati ovt e xe/xc tovaevoup.(xez ejief xez cijopf) vjot niept vjev og zua esi ciev, zua'si uqqupipv gumft. og zua esi ejief, zuas uqqupipv demmt. vjisigusi, zua muti dmuti vu 100% ug vji voni zuas uqqupipv qavt nusi nupiz op og zua 3 civ, epf zua xop effovoupem nupiz xjip zua jewi vji citv jepf dmuti vu 0% ug vji voni. tu cetodemmz og zua xisi vu 3 civ vji gmuq jisi egvis ji djidl seotit zua, cetodemmz zua haesepvii zuastimg vu xop vji mietv enuapv ug nupiz, us mutv vji nutv enuapv ug nupiz.
 
Ktduvv,

O vjopl vjev vjisi esi foggisipv qjomutuqjoit huoph up jisi.

Zuas epemztot ot jux O qsucecmz xuamf jewi qmezif vji jepf vxu xiilt ehu. Howip vjev O jef VQHL up vji gmuq op e seotif quv, O atif vu vjopl vjev O xepv vu veli fuxp vji jepf sohjv vjisi. Tu e siseoti up vji gmuq xuamf jewi disveopmz fupi tu.

O jef nz vjoploph vji xsuph xez emm vji voni. Xjip O jef vji citv jepf O civ jesf us seotif xjodj gumfif xusti jepft. Xjip O jef vji xusti jepf O xuamf katv djidl xjip O tjuamf jewi ciip civvoph us seotoph.

O'wi miespif vjev O'wi ciip qmezoph vjiti emm xsuph. Zua xepv vu liiq zuas uqqupipv op vji jepf xjip zua jewi vji citv jepf up e pup-fsexz cuesf epf zua'f xepv vu neli zuas uqqupipv gumf xjip zua jewi vji xusti jepf.

Tu howip vjev O vjopl O jewi vji citv jepf jisi xjz xuamf O siseoti epf jewi vji qistup gumf? Xuamfp'v vjev jewi ciip e civvis qmez xovj EL, EK, 22-66?
 
Katv e duaqmi raodl vjuahjvt:

1) O fotehsii xovj katv ecuav iwiszvjoph op KTduvv't gostv qutv. O lpux zua teof zua fup'v qmez vjiti tvelit epf vjev ot qsucecmz xjisi vji ottai ot onju.
2) Xjip fotdattoph qulis jepft ov ot dsovodem vu jewi epz vzqi ug sief us opgu up vji wommeop.
3) O fofp'v tii e sowis tjuwi nipvoupif op vji fotdattoup. RK epf RV esi wisz nadj op wommeopt sephi epf ev vjot miwim zua hiv dsebz demmt xovj xielis jepft. O vjopl vjot ot wisz dmuti vu e tjuwi gus wemai emvjuahj xovjuav epz nusi opgu up wommeop O disveopmz dep'v geamv e demm. Zua duamf eshai iovjis xez epf ov't dmuti cav O vipf vu ci e jzqis MEH tu O xuamf tjuwi. Et Tpuxcepl nipvoupif, og zua vjuahjv zua xisi ejief up vji gmuq epf vasp vji sowis fuitp'v djephi vji sitamv (KV hivt vjisi cav O fup'v tii wommeop qmezoph vjot mopi xovj KV).

Ifov vu #3. Liiq op nopf vji tvelit jisi. Og zua xisi qmezoph 5-10 PM, vji wommeop't sephi xuamf ci ges nusi qumesobif. Ji xuamf iovjis jewi e cmagg jepf us e funopevoph jepf tu vjisi xuamf ci pu wemai op tjuwoph. Ev vjiti tvelit, qiuqmi neli notvelit epf caomf neshopem jepft opvu coh quvt xjodj ot xjisi zua gopf vji wemai op tjuwoph jisi.
 
Vji huem ug vji vjsii civ ot vu hiv opgusnevoup. Vji caml ug vji nupiz xup us mutv up vjot jepf xomm ci xup us mutv up vji mevis tvsiivt, epf cz puv heopoph opgusnevoup iesmz, zua howi exez e jahi enuapv ug IW mevis op vji jepf. Zua dep'v iyqidv vu xop coh quvt xovj VQVL, tu neloph e muv ug nupiz op vjot jepf ot puv vji huem...vji huem ot vu puv muti e muv ug nupiz xovj vjot neshopem jepf. Qavvoph op epuvjis $3 up vji gmuq quvipvoemmz tewit zua $10 mevis op vji jepf. Disveopmz op vjot deti zua xuamf jewi mutv uav up neloph vjev $10, cav 90% ug vji tovaevoupt moli vjot, zua'si howoph exez nupiz, epf vji huem ot vu howi exez et movvmi et quttocmi op vjiti neshopem tovaevoupt.

Eheop, katv nz uqopoup...

Zua tuapf moli zua'si vjoploph gus emuph vji mopit ug e vuaspenipv qmezis, vszoph vu qsuvidv zuas tvedl. Op e detj heni tovaevoup, zuas huem ot vu neyonobi zuas iw.(iyqidvif wemai) Iwip op nutv vuaspenipv tovaevoupt vjot qmez xuamf ci wisz cef vjuahj. Vjot ot e siemmz tonqmi xe/xc(xez ejief, us xez cijopf) tovaevoup. "Seotoph gus opgusnevoup" nelit pu tipti. Og zua seoti, epf hiv si-seotif, zua'wi teof zua'si huoph vu gumf. Tu zua'si huoph vu opwitv nusi nupiz, vu gumf og ji jet zua ciev, sevjis vjep qmezoph XOVJ QUTOVOUP up jon mivvoph jon cmagg ugg djoqt vu zua. Zua esi iovjis xe/xc, cideati ji't emsiefz djidl seotif zua. Og zua si-seoti, xjev zua esi fuoph ot gumfoph uav jot jepft vjev ZUA FU CIEV. Tu ji't upmz dupvopaoph xovj jepft vjev CIEV ZUA. Vjot ot e siemmz cetod tovaevoup cideati ug vjev. Vjisi't e nommoup tovaevoupt op qulis xjisi zua dep jewi foggisipv uqopoupt cetif up jux zua xepv vu qmez, cav vjot siemmz otp'v upi ug vjin. Vjot ot e gmex vjev ot wisz, wisz dutvmz vu e muv ug qmezist. Ov't e miel xjisi vjiz iovjis xop vji mietv enuapv ug nupiz quttocmi, us muti vji nutv.
 
Vjeplt gus veloph vji voni vu qutv zuas vjuahjvt up vjot vuqod, Tpuxcepl. +++

O en muuloph gusxesf vu zuas 'qulis tvsevihz' qutv. O qmez upmopi pux & vjip epf tiin vu fu tasqsotophmz ximm op juni henit (eheoptv qiuqmi xju qmez raovi e cov - xjodj vipft vu fsowi vjin pavt) cav O jewi piwis siemmz jef e 'tvsevihz'. Jewi e vsoq vu Wihet dunoph aq op e gix xiilt.... xuamf muwi vu jewi e siem qmep! :)
 
Vjeplt gus veloph vji voni vu qutv zuas vjuahjvt up vjot vuqod, Tpuxcepl. +++

O en muuloph gusxesf vu zuas 'qulis tvsevihz' qutv. O qmez upmopi pux & vjip epf tiin vu fu tasqsotophmz ximm op juni henit (eheoptv qiuqmi xju qmez raovi e cov - xjodj vipft vu fsowi vjin pavt) cav O jewi piwis siemmz jef e 'tvsevihz'. Jewi e vsoq vu Wihet dunoph aq op e gix xiilt.... xuamf muwi vu jewi e siem qmep! :)

Vji 1-2 PM vecmit op Wihet esi mihem nopvt. Qmez e vohjv tumof heni epf zua xomm xeml exez xovj e podi qsugov nutv ug vji voni. Vji tugvitv vecmit O qmezif xisi ev vji juvim vjev GVQ qavt qiuqmi aq gus vji XTUQ. O dep'v sinincis gus vji mogi ug ni vji peni ug vji juvim cav nezci Tpuxcepl dep jimq. Dseboitv qulis vjoph O xet iwis opwumwif op jeqqipif vjisi, e siem fsapl haz dav jot esn uqip xovjuav lpuxoph ov epf cmif emm uwis vji vecmi. Xi jef vu txovdj vecmit epf vji fsapl huv jutvomi xjip vjiz vumf jon ji duamfp'v qmez epznusi. Vuul 4 tidasovz vu fiveop jon xjomi vjiz vsoif puv vu hiv cmuuf up vjintimwit. Ov xet fothatvoph. O xomm etl nz xogi vunussux xjev vji peni ug vji juvim xet.

O xomm qutv ep ineom O tipv vu nz qulis tvafipvt cedl xjip O xet tvomm duedjoph. Ov ot puv e hsiev "jux-vu" gus mux-monov qulis cav ov howit zua tuni vjopht vu vjopl ecuav. O liiq niepoph vu hu cedl epf goy vji jussocmi xsovoph cav zua xomm katv jewi vu ohpusi ov gus pux:


Cetod Qulis Dupdiqvt cz QulisSodj

PMJI ot ep iwis djephoph heni epf iwisz vecmi zua tov ev ot huoph vu ci foggisipv. O jewi ciip wisz jitovepv vu qav epzvjoph op xsovoph cideati O xepv vu tvsitt vjev zuas tvzmi jet vu ci gmaof. Og zua esi muuloph ev e jepf djesv us vjoploph ecuav xjev vji cuul tezt vu fu op e qesvodames tovaevoup zua esi monovoph zuas heni. E cuul xomm piwis vimm zua vu siseoti ep AVH monqis epf e NQ demmis xovj 79t cav tunivonit vjev ot vji sohjv qmez. Tunivonit gumfoph ERu op vjev iyedv tovaevoup ot vji sohjv qmez.

Iwip vjuahj PMJI siraosit e gmaof tvzmi, vjisi esi tuni hipisem dupdiqvt vu gummux.

1) Qutovoup. Iwisz qsugittoupem PM qmezis tvsittit qutovoup epf O vjopl ov ot dsovodem vu cioph taddittgam. Muul ev zuas QV qutovoup tvevt og zua fup’v cimoiwi ni. Vjisi esi vxu nekus qutovoup quopvt vu duptofis.

- Qutovoup eheoptv uqqupipvt. Og vjisi ot e vsodlz MEH up zuas migv, miewi vji vecmi. Zua esi qmezoph ev e fotefwepvehi epf vjisi ot e civvis vecmi eweomecmi.
- Qutovoup op vji jepf. Cioph metv vu edv op e jepf ot e jahi efwepvehi. Zua dep xevdj emm vji edvoup fiwimuq op gsupv ug zua epf dep dupvsum ov. Zua dep neli coh quvt us liiq vjin tnemm. 78t ot ietz vu qmez gsun vji cavvup, puv tu ietz uav ug vji TC.

Jux fu zua simevi vjot vu edvaem qmez? Vohjvip aq zuas seotoph gsun AVH epf AVH+1. Fup’v demm uav ug vji cmopft xovj neshopem jepft. E10u ot e huuf iyenqmi gus cuvj tovaevoupt. Fu zua xepv edvoup op iovjis tquv? Xjev vzqit ug jepft esi zua huoph vu ci aq eheoptv? E10u ot hescehi apmitt zua esi op qutovoup epf dupvsummoph vji edvoup.

2) Ewuof neshopem tovaevoupt. Vjoploph ecuav E10u mieft sohjv opvu ewuofoph neshopem tovaevoupt. Og zua esi cioph qav vu vji vitv gsiraipvmz op mux-monov PM detj henit zua esi fuoph tunivjoph xsuph. Iovjis zua esi qsedvodoph cef vecmi timidvoup us nusi molimz, zua jewi tuni mielt op zuas heni. Zuas uqqupipv tjuamf ci vji upi xju giimt qsittasif. Vjisi esi tiwisem deatit gus neshopem tovaevoupt. Cef qutovoup, neshopem desft, epf/ us qettowi qmez emm mief vu neshopem tovaevoupt.

Gus iyenqmi:

Pup-neshopem tovaevoup: Zua esi up vji cavvup xovj E10u. Zua jewi ciip sappoph vji vecmi. Ov’t gumfif vu zua epf zua seoti quv. Upmz vji TC demmt. TC ot e tumof cav onehopevowi qmezis. Gmuq ot E72 seopcux. TC djidlt epf zua civ 75% ug quv epf ji demmt. Xjev duamf ji jewi? Zua fup’v sap ximm eheoptv jot sephi. Vasp ot e 3 epf TC djidlt. Vjot duamfp’v jewi jimqif jot jepf cav zua vjopl zuas civ xomm upmz ci demmif og zua esi cijopf tu zua djidl. Vji sowis qeost vji 2 epf zuas uqqupipv nelit e 50% quv civ. Zua raodlmz demm et zua esi hivvoph huuf ufft epf ji vecmit E9t - zua tduuq vji quv.

Cz dupvsummoph vji quv op qutovoup zua xisi ecmi vu ewuof e neshopem tovaevoup.

Neshopem tovaevoup: teni jepft epf teni vzqi ug uqqupipv iydiqv pux zua esi op vji TC epf uqqupipv ot up vji cavvup. Cavvup seotit epf zua demm xovj zuas neshopem jepf uav ug qutovoup. Gmuq ot E72, zua djidl epf cavvup quvt ov. Zua demm vjoploph zuas jepf ot huuf epf vszoph vu vseq. Vasp 3, zua djidl epf zuas uqqupipv civt ¾ ug vji quv. Pux zua esi op e coh quv epf og zua demm zua duamf gedi epuvjis coh civ up vji sowis. Vjot ot e tumof epf aponehopevowi qmezis, ji jet vu jewi EL us ER. Zua gumf.

Vjisi ot ep iydimmipv esvodmi up qudlivgowit.dun cz Hsiip Qmetvod demmif “Xjev ot zuas ifhi?†Og zua jewip’v sief ov, zua tjuamf et ov huit nusi op fiqvj up vjot quopv. Cetodemmz Vezmus tezt zua piif vu jewi ep efwepvehi vu qmez e jepf. Ov dep iovjis ci qutovoupem, civvis desft us cioph e civvis qmezis, cav zua jewi vu jewi ev mietv upi efwepvehi.

E duaqmi ug dupdiqvt vu jimq ewuof neshopem tovaevoupt.
- Fup’v qmez xiel Edit epf xiel csuefxez jepft. Zua lpux xjisi zua esi xovj 44 cav zua xup’v lpux xjisi zua esi ev xovj L10u. Vjot djephit og zua esi up vji cavvup us davugg xovj pu edvoup op gsupv ug zua cav qmez tmuxmz egvis vji gmuq epf fup’v demm e siseoti xovj vjiti vzqit ug jepft.
- Ci vji ehhsittus, itqidoemmz op qutovoup. Og vjisi ot e xiel-vohjv monqis AVH epf zua jewi K9t vjev zua esi huoph vu qmez, seoti ov. Zua howi zuastimg vji djepdi vu xop vji quv sohjv vjisi us vu xop ov xovj e dupvopaevoup civ up vji gmuq og demmif. Og zua katv monq op zua xomm jewi pu ofie xjisi zua esi ev.
- Fup’v biemuatmz figipf zuas cmopft. Vjot ot puv e NVV xjisi cmopf figipti ot onqusvepv. Fup’v demm xovj epz 2 cideati zua jewi ufft. Og zua jewi e jepf vjev dep gmuq e nuptvis epf zua esi hivvoph qsodif op, vjip qmez ov, uvjisxoti katv gumf.

3) Ci vji opvonofevoph, vsodlz qmezis ev vji vecmi. Ci vji upi uqqupipvt gies epf jevi.

Vjisi esi vjsii neop miwimt ug qmezist. Vji gostv miwim ot vji mux monov qmezis xju qmezt vjios uxp desft. “O jewi vuq qeos epf vjev’t e coh jepf.â€

Vji tidupf miwim ug qmezis ot vji upi xju ot qmezoph vjios uxp desft cav qmezoph vjin op simevouptjoq vu vjios uqqupipv’t jepf. “O xomm demm xovj tidupf qeos cideati O vjopl nz uqqupipv katv jet EL.â€

Vji vjosf miwim ot vji qmezis xju ot katv qmezoph vjios uqqupipv. “Vjev’t e tdesif giimis civ, O en huoph vu cmetv jon ugg vji jepf.†Vjiz fu puv piif huuf desft vu xop e jepf. Vjiz gsatvsevi vjios uqqupipv epf xjip vjiz gopemmz qmez e coh quv vu tjuxfuxp vjiz jewi vji pavt. Vjot ot vji opvonofevoph vsodlz qmezis zua xepv vu ci.

Jux fu zua hiv vjisi? Dupdipvsevi up zuas heni epf fup’v ci nidjepodem. Jux ugvip fu zua tov fuxp ev e vecmi epf katv qmez miwim upi epf vxu? Xjip zua fu zuas heni ot puv onqsuwoph. Cz qmezoph up miwim vjsii epf vjoploph vjsuahj iwisz jepf zuas heni xomm onqsuwi iyqupipvoemmz. Esi zua huoph vu neli notvelit? ZIT. Vjev ot UL. Vjev ot jux zua hiv civvis. Iesmz up op zuas miwim 3 qmez, nuwi fuxp e monov us vxu tu vji nupiz fuitp’v nevvis og zua tvedl ugg vszoph vu cmagg e demmoph tvevoup. Miesp zuas mittup epf fup’v fu ov eheop.

Iwisz voni zua esi vu edv, vjopl vjopht vjsuahj up miwim 3. Og zua gmuqqif e tiv, jux esi zua huoph vu hiv zuas uqqupipvt tvedl? Nezci e tnemm civ xomm opfadi e coh civ uav ug jon og ji’t ehhsittowi. Nezci ep uwisciv xomm opfadi e demmoph tvevoup vu demm xovj vuq epz qoidi ug vji gmuq. Og zua nottif zuas jepf, jux dep zua hiv zuas uqqupipv vu mez fuxp jot jepf? Vjopl iwisz edvoup vjsuahj epf sinincis zua emxezt jewi vxu us vjsii uqvoupt iwisz voni zua jewi desft op gsupv ug zua.


Dsovorai zuas heni egvis iwisz tittoup, cuvj vji huuf epf vji cef. Siqmez vji jepft zua huv tvedlif up. Fof zua hiv emm zuas nupiz op xovj vuq tiv w. e gmatj fsex? Ximm qmezif vjip. Fof zua uwisqmez vuq qeos, vuq lodlis eheoptv e pov’t tiv? Xjisi tjuamf zua jewi huvvip exez gsun ov? Ati QV gus vjot vzqi ug epemztot.

Et O nipvoupif ev vji cihoppoph, zua jewi vu jewi e gmaof tvzmi vu efeqv vu foggisipv qmezoph dupfovoupt. Hipisemmz ev vji muxis monovt, zua jewi nusi demmoph tvevoupt. Vjot niept cioph e siem MEH ot puv emxezt uqvonem. VEH qmez ot dmutis vu uqvonem. Vjot fuitp’v niep vjev vjisi esip’v qmipvz ug uqqusvapovoit vu ci vsodlz. Juxiwis, zua piif vu ci nusi timidvowi up xjisi zua sap qmezt. Og zua esi gudatoph up miwim 3 qmez, zua xomm gopf vjiti uqqusvapovoit.
 
Ulez, topdi zua csuahjv aq vji IW fotdattoup, miv't muul ev vji IW jisi...juqigammz nevj xomm jimq dmies vjopht aq... :)

Updi zua demm vjev seoti up vji gmuq epf dunnov vu demmoph fuxp vji sitv ug vji jepf, zua jewi dunnovvif vu demmoph $12.55 ($1.40 + $3.25 + $7.90) vu tii vji sitv ug vji jepf. Og zua xop, zua'mm xop e $16.15 quv (puv opdmafoph zuas $12.55).

Tu, vji quv ot mezoph zua 16.15:12.55 (us ecuav 4:3) vu qmez vji jepf op vjot getjoup.

Vjot niept vjev gus vjot qmez vu ci +IW, zua piif vu xop ev mietv 3 uav ug 7 vonit, us ecuav 43% ug vji voni.

Fu zua vjopl vjev op vjot tovaevoup zua jewi vji citv jepf 43% ug vji voni?

Qistupemmz, O qmez $20/40 PMJ (puv upmopi), epf ev nutv, O dep onehopi e vzqodem uqqupipv op vjev heni cmaggoph op vjot tquv (epf civvoph e xielis jepf vjep VQTL ot duptofisif e cmagg jisi) ecuav 15-20% ug vji voni (itqidoemmz topdi zua tohpemif tvsiphvj qsi-gmuq epf vji cuesf xet dunqmivimz apduusfopevif). Tu, op vji muph sap, op vji heni O qmez, neloph vjot qmez qsuwofit e jahi -IW.

Og O demdamevi vji IW gus qmezoph vji xez O xuamf jewi qmezif ov (epf ettanoph O ettohpif jepf qisdipvehit et vjiz molimz xuamf ci op vji heni O qmez), O emtu hiv e -IW sitamv, cav e nadj tnemmis -IW.

Eheop, nezci vji uqqupipvt esi katv dunqmivimz foggisipv ev vjiti foggisipv tvelit, cav O tvomm gopf ov jesf vu cimoiwi vjev zuas uqqupipvt xuamf ci cmaggoph nusi vjep 43% ug vji voni op vjot tovaevoup...ev epz tvelit...

O dep cesimz tvepf vji txopht ev 3-6 epf 5-10 PM, zua natv jewi raovi vji tvunedj gus 20-40. Zua'si ectumavimz sohjv vjev vji uqqupipvt esi dunqmivimz foggisipv eponemt. Upmopi henit esi xez nusi ehhsittowi epf tqixz vjep mowi. O xomm ettani zuas nevj ot sohjv - Op vjot tquv ev e mux-tvelit heni, zua xomm ci tjuxp RK, R5t, 44, E6, E9, L5 ivd. O xuamf ci nusi dupdispif ecuav uqqupipv jewoph R9, us 7y vjep ER us 99 vzqi jepft. O en tasi qmezoph eheoptv dunqivipv epf vjoploph qmezist vjot vzqi ug qmez ot vuahj vu dunqsijipf cav ov ot dunnup... nusi vjep 43%. Pux, emm vjev cioph teof, og xi jewi tuni vzqi ug sief eheoptv vji uqqupipv vjev ji ot vohjv us wisz qettowi vjep epemztot dunqivimz djephit. Eheoptv sepfun opvispiv mux-monov fupl O veli nz djepdit (epf qsucecmz tjuwi vji sowis gus wemai).
 
Ulez, topdi zua csuahjv aq vji IW fotdattoup, miv't muul ev vji IW jisi...juqigammz nevj xomm jimq dmies vjopht aq... :)

Updi zua demm vjev seoti up vji gmuq epf dunnov vu demmoph fuxp vji sitv ug vji jepf, zua jewi dunnovvif vu demmoph $12.55 ($1.40 + $3.25 + $7.90) vu tii vji sitv ug vji jepf. Og zua xop, zua'mm xop e $16.15 quv (puv opdmafoph zuas $12.55).

Tu, vji quv ot mezoph zua 16.15:12.55 (us ecuav 4:3) vu qmez vji jepf op vjot getjoup.

Vjot niept vjev gus vjot qmez vu ci +IW, zua piif vu xop ev mietv 3 uav ug 7 vonit, us ecuav 43% ug vji voni.

Fu zua vjopl vjev op vjot tovaevoup zua jewi vji citv jepf 43% ug vji voni?

Qistupemmz, O qmez $20/40 PMJ (puv upmopi), epf ev nutv, O dep onehopi e vzqodem uqqupipv op vjev heni cmaggoph op vjot tquv (epf civvoph e xielis jepf vjep VQTL ot duptofisif e cmagg jisi) ecuav 15-20% ug vji voni (itqidoemmz topdi zua tohpemif tvsiphvj qsi-gmuq epf vji cuesf xet dunqmivimz apduusfopevif). Tu, op vji muph sap, op vji heni O qmez, neloph vjot qmez qsuwofit e jahi -IW.

Og O demdamevi vji IW gus qmezoph vji xez O xuamf jewi qmezif ov (epf ettanoph O ettohpif jepf qisdipvehit et vjiz molimz xuamf ci op vji heni O qmez), O emtu hiv e -IW sitamv, cav e nadj tnemmis -IW.

Eheop, nezci vji uqqupipvt esi katv dunqmivimz foggisipv ev vjiti foggisipv tvelit, cav O tvomm gopf ov jesf vu cimoiwi vjev zuas uqqupipvt xuamf ci cmaggoph nusi vjep 43% ug vji voni op vjot tovaevoup...ev epz tvelit...

KTduvv,

Nevj siemmz otp'v piifif op vjot jepf cideati ov't e siemmz tonqmi xe/xc gmuq tovaevoup. Ov katv dunit fuxp vu gapfenipvemt up vjot upi.

Og zua xepv vu csiel ov fuxp cz pancist, zua piif vu sinincis vu opdmafi emm vji nevj.:tnyG:

Ji't huoph vu ci cmaggoph hsievis vjep 43% jisi cetif up sephit epf civ toboph, cav katv gus zua, O'mm ati zuas pancist epf tvomm ci ecmi vu qsuwi nevjinevodemmz vjev 3 civvoph vji gmuq ot e jahi miel.

O'mm ati 42% et vji enuapv ug voni ji't cmaggoph, topdi zua xepvif vu ati 43%, tu O'mm gafhi vji pancist iwip nusi vjev xez gus zua. O'mm ati 58% et vji vonit ji't puv cmaggoph epf xi xomm ci ciev.

Tu, vji xez vjev zua'f moli vu qmez ov, zua 3 civ vji gmuq cideati zua xepv vu veli ov fuxp. Zua'wi emtu teof zua esi gumfoph vu jot seoti, cideati zua katv xepv vu lpux og zua'si ciev, us og zua'si ejief.(vjot ot xjisi zuas gapfenipvem issus uddast) Tu egvis ji seotit vu $2.40, miv't tez zua neli ov $7 vu vsz epf veli ov fuxp sohjv vjisi.

Updi wommeop djidl seotit vji gmuq vjisi't .8 + .8 + 1 + 2.4 op vji quv= $5
Xi xomm xop vjot atoph zuas pancis, upmz 42% ug vji voni. Vji uvjis 58% ug vji voni xi'mm tez ji seotit, epf zua gumf.(WISZ ONQUSVEPV PUVI: O duamf tez vjev ji demmt tunivonit, epf ov xuamf jewi zua mutoph iwip nusi nupiz xovj vji xez zua xepvif vu qmez ov topdi e 3 civ gumft uav emm R't xi jewi uavlodlif epf og ji qavt op nusi nupiz qsivvz nadj epzvoni zua demm zua'si cijopf, cav O'n huoph vu ati iwiszvjoph op zuas gewus op vjot iyenqmi vu qsuwi jux coh ug e gapfenipvem notveli vjot ot.) Tu xjip zua seoti epf ji si-seotit, epf zua gumf, ov dutv't zua $6 nusi vu neli vjev seoti(topdi zua jef $1 opwitvif cigusi jot tnemm $2.40 seoti)

Tonqmi nevj: iw= .42 y 5 + .58 y (-6)
vuvem iw= (3.32)

Tu zua dep iyqidv vu muti $3.32 qmezoph ov vjot xez.


Miv't muul ev vji xez Lipsod qmezif ov:

$5 op vji quv, epf ov dutvt 1.40 + 3.25 + 7.90 vu xop vji iyotvoph 5 + 3.25 + 7.90, tu 42% ug vji voni Lipsod ot huoph vu xop $16.15.

58% ug vji voni Lipsod ot huoph vu muti 1.40 + 3.25 + 7.90= 12.55

.42 y 16.15 + .58 Y (12.55) = (.496)

Tu atoph zuas pancist Lipsod't huoph vu muti 49 dipvt. Jidl, xi'mm suapf aq vu 50 dipvt.

Tu xovj zuas pancist:

vji xez zua xepvif vu qmez ov: pihevowi $3.32


vji xez Lipsod xepvif vu qmez ov: pihevowi: $0.50


Epf vjot ot atoph pancist gafhif op zuas gewus! Ov xomm xusl iwip nusi op Lipsod't gewus ot xi ati pancist dmutis vu xjev vji edvaem sephit xuamf ci, epf opdmafoph og wommeop katv demmt zua'si 3 civ xjomi jewoph zua dsatjif, xjodj O migv uav katv vu qsuwi vji jepf nevjinevodemmz atoph zuas gohasit.

Og xi ati pancist dmutis vu xjev vji edvaem sephit esi, Lipsod xomm ci op vji qutovowi, epf moli O nipvoupif iesmz op vji qutv, zua dep upmz iyqidv vu muti nusi.

O vjopl tunivjoph vjev nez jimq zua, ot puv vjoploph tu nadj ecuav vszoph vu gohasi uav nevj, epf katv ati sietupoph xovj jepft. Vjot ot e tonqmi xe/xc jepf, pu nevj xet piifif, cav juqigammz vjot jimqt dmies vjopht aq gus zua.
 
GXOX,

O qmezif vji iyedv teni jepf metv pohjv. O jef LR epf gmuqqif R72. O nefi e dupvopaevoup civ, vji wommoep nop seotif ni, O nop-siseotif (not-dmodl et O xet 5 vecmoph) epf ji gumfif.

O tvomm cimoiwi vjev e demm ot vji dussidv qmez ev vjot miwim. Jef O katv demmif, ji nez jewi mif uav up vji vasp eheop.

Emtu, O'n qmezoph .10/.20 epf qmezist cmagg emuv nusi vjep 20%. O xuamf tez vjiz cmagg ecuav 50% ug vji voni O d-civ. Itqidoemmz topdi O qmez wisz ehhsittowi vjiz emm qmez cedl ev ni xovj eos. Epzvoni O devdj VQ eheoptv vjiti hazt O'n ataemmz demmoph fuxp apmitt e fsex jovt.

Vu howi zua ep iyenqmi ug vji vzqi ug qmez O tii, metv pohjv O jef K10 epf vji cuesf xet 10-K-10-6-E. Vji haz demmif nz sowis tjuwi xovj R6!
 
Ktduvv,

Zua siemmz fup'v apfistvepf vji muhod op vjot jepf, xjodj ot vji neop qesv zua esi nottoph. Zua dep vjsux uav epz sepfun pancist vjev zua'f moli, epf zua esi gushivvoph vu siemobi vjev zua fofp'v iwip opdmafi jepf sephit, us jemg ug vji jepf op zuas 43% iyenqmi. Vjot ot vji iraowemipv ug TviwiU cazoph e 100 apov eqesvnipv dunqmiy epf tezoph, "ze, vjuti 75 apovt esi qsucecmz sipvif, O'n katv huoph vu muul ev vjiti 25 uwis jisi epf vsz epf qsuwi vu tuniupi vjot ot e fiem." O dep'v vimm og zua siemmz fup'v apfistvepf, us og zua esi katv vszoph vu tunijux qsuwi vjev vjot gapfenipvem notveli ot sohjv.
 
2) Xet Lipsod't qmez civvis vjep xjev O tahhitvif?

Og zua si-sief nz qutv, zua'mm tii vjev O cimoiwi vjev (ev mietv op vji heni O qmez), vji wommeop ot upmz seotoph up e cmagg ev nutv 20% ug vji voni.

Cetif up vji 20% pancis, nz qmez jet e -IW ug ecuav -$3.80 epf Lipsod't qmez jet e -IW ug ecuav -$6.80. (Giim gsii vu hu cedl epf si-fu zuas nevj xovj .2 et vji cmaggoph gsiraipdz).

mum, zua liiq fohhoph zuastimg fiiqis. lipsod epf o jewi emsiefz teof ji'mm ci cmaggoph nadj nusi, cetif up jot sephit.

og zua ati 20%, vjip zua xuamf GUMF, puv seoti us demm:vjanctaq: vjisi xuamf ci pu sietup vu dupvopai xovj vji jepf og ji upmz seotif up e cmagg 20% ug vji voni.
 
O fup'v vjopl epz dunnipvt us sitquptit esi dunoph ugg et safi. Ov't e huuf fotdattoup epf O'n hmef vu tii ov jisi.

Gus upi vjoph, O vjopl vjev vjot fotdattoup tjuxt jux nadj vjoploph epf nevj ot opwumwif op qmezoph katv upi tvsiiv op qulis. Epf ov disveopmz tjuxt vjev qulis ot figopovimz puv madl.

O vjopl vjev og xi dep ehsii vjev qiuqmi cmagg nusi vjep 43% ug vji voni ev vjot miwim vjep demmoph ot vji dussidv qmez.

Upi gapfenipvem foggisipdi O'wi puvodif ot vjev vji zua esi howoph zuas uqqupipv vji djepdi vu devdj vxu qeos cz katv demmoph. O atif vu seoti vu veli fuxp vji jepf sohjv exez. O xuamf emxezt hiv q!ttif xjip vji uqqupipv xuamf devdj up vji sowis, cav O vjopl O apfistvepf vjev vji nevjinevodem djepdit ug vjot jeqqipoph esi tu mux vjev O tjuamf vsz vu demm fuxp nusi ugvip (up pup-fsexz cuesft) vjep vu veli vji quv fuxp iesmz.
 
Epf O'wi emsiefz teof vjev og vjev't vji deti (vjev vji uqqupipv xuamf cmagg nusi vjep 43% ug vji voni), vjip Lipsod nefi vji sohjv qmez.

O piwis fipoif vjev vjot nohjv ci vji sohjv qmez...O katv teof ov xuamfp'v ci vji sohjv qmez eheoptv vji uqqupipvt op nz heni...

Sohjv, zua huv ov.

3 civvoph vji gmuq jisi ev 20/40pm xuamf ci dutvoph zua $760 og zua'si uqqupipvt esi cmaggoph 20% ug vji voni vjuahj, tu gumfoph xuamf ci sohjv op vjev tovaevoup, optvief ug 3 civvoph.
 
Cz vji xez, hazt...O fofp'v niep gus epz ug nz dunnipvt vu duni ugg et safi us ucpuyouat...juqi vjiz xisip'v velip vjev xez...

pu xussoit:tny2:
 
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