Social Arbitrage Swing Trade Thread

[MitchC]

I like this YouTuber and just watched his latest video

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CBfK93z9w0Q


He’s talking about a stock trading method where you see an opportunity or trend before it’s reflected in the market.

The example in the video is Abercrombie being sold out everywhere and their videos all over TikTok, yet that not being reflected in their earnings yet.

Some examples of my own I’ve seen in the past include the iOS changes tanking Facebook stock, which was obvious, but I think most people missed how much google would benefit.

At that time I moved 80% of my spend to google. There was definitely an opportunity to profit off this as being a bit of an INSIDERS.

Anyway, if anyone sees a bit of an opportunity like this in the future, post it here and we can discuss it

We all have unique insights and perspectives with our different businesses and hobbies.

Also I think everyone should be reminded, this isn’t financial advice, it’s not a Fastlane way to get rich, just a fun way to gamble, discuss trends and hopefully profit.

 

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[Tauckus]

Oh, so I not only saw that opportunity, lol
We need to find some more information about this strategy from legit sources


Or it was just an ad thing? Because I think many people will find this forum, like, as I did. Or maybe even a pump strategy? Don't get me wrong, this forum has good stuff.

 

[100k]

Thanks for this thread and putting us on to this trading strategy.

I decided to give this shit a go.... since Budweiseris persona non grata ATM, dumb money figured the masses would go to the biggest competitor to buy cheap shitty beer.... thus Molson Coors is going to have a uptake in sales.

So with that in mind, I decided to buy a few CALL on the ticker-symbol TAP. Earning report will be released in the next 45 days or so. Soooo let's see what happens, hopefully my CALLS will blow up

 

[MitchC]

Oh, so I not only saw that opportunity, lol
We need to find some more information about this strategy from legit sources


Or it was just an ad thing? Because I think many people will find this forum, like, as I did. Or maybe even a pump strategy? Don't get me wrong, this forum has good stuff.

I don’t own a single stock and I don’t know the guy in the video

I just thought it was an interesting topic and wanted to see what ideas and opportunities people are seeing

 

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[BizyDad]

Thanks for this thread and putting us on to this trading strategy.

I decided to give this shit a go.... since Budweiseris persona non grata ATM, dumb money figured the masses would go to the biggest competitor to buy cheap shitty beer.... thus Molson Coors is going to have a uptake in sales.

So with that in mind, I decided to buy a few CALL on the ticker-symbol TAP. Earning report will be released in the next 45 days or so. Soooo let's see what happens, hopefully my CALLS will blow up

Ironically the beer that has seen the biggest uptick as a result of this is Modelo Especial...

Which is actually owned by the same company as Budweiser. Doesn't mean you're not right, just thought I'd mention it.

 

[GuestUser4aMPs1]

Ironically the beer that has seen the biggest uptick as a result of this is Modelo Especial...

Which is actually owned by the same company as Budweiser. Doesn't mean you're not right, just thought I'd mention it.

Ab Inbev doesn't own the distribution rights in the USA, that goes to Constellation Brands.
Outside the United States though, yes. They "own" Modelo.

 

[BizyDad]

Ab Inbev doesn't own the distribution rights in the USA, that goes to Constellation Brands.
Outside the United States though, yes. They "own" Modelo.

I shoulda fact checked the video I saw, especially before posting in an investment thread, and thanks for the correction.

 

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[MitchC]

I shoulda fact checked the video I saw, especially before posting in an investment thread, and thanks for the correction.

I’ve also seen other videos suggesting they were going to overtake them anyway, this just accelerated it.

I’ve just seen news that iOS 17 will strip the tracking parts from URLs.

I will have to investigate and think about this further but it will definitely affect businesses.

 

[BizyDad]

FWIW

View: https://youtube.com/shorts/G175ThYfoiY?feature=share

 

[100k]

Ironically the beer that has seen the biggest uptick as a result of this is Modelo Especial...

Which is actually owned by the same company as Budweiser. Doesn't mean you're not right, just thought I'd mention it.

Wait until the WOKE right hears about this... it will tank.

Better to be safe and go with the competitor that isn't owned by Budweiser.

 

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[Andy Black]

Haven't watched the video but whenever I watch the news, read the front pages, or read anything on social media, I can't help but wonder what effect (affect?) it has on the masses.

For instance, when the news says house prices are rising because of lack of supply, I figure that panicks house-buyers, causes bidding wars, and someone's profiting. And when the news says Crypto is in free-fall, I wonder what the masses are doing and who's profiting.

 

[svekk1]

Haven't watched the video but based on your description it is something i saw a few years ago. I don't remember the guys name but he was puahing the same idea and even had a book on it I think. What i remember firmly is that he was checking twitter and social media for insights and was on the company behind Aperol as that year everyone drank aperol spritz. Don'tremember how that turned out for him


Edit: Found the guy, his name is Chris Camillo if anyone is interested. He also had a Youtube channel that seems inactive - Dumb Money

 

[BizyDad]

I don't care if I'm the only one keeping this thread going. Lol. It's a good idea for a thread and it should be more active.

Ok, hear me out on this one...

So you guys know I do marketing for real estate companies. But I'm a little myopic because everything is Phoenix-based.

Still I think there are some macroeconomic forces that are fairly obvious.

The FED just indicated they're going to raise rates two more times before the end of the year.

I'm hearing reports of home builders cutting prices.

People are getting laid off in numbers we haven't seen in a while.

Immigration is at highs, which slows wage growth.

Thus foreclosures have been increasing the last two years.

Overall inventory is much higher than it was at the off the record lows last year.

But inflation and speculation has driven the cost of homes higher and higher.

People can't afford homes, and interest rates have people sitting on the sidelines.

Even fix and flip has gotten way more difficult.

I'm seeing reports of just more and more homelessness all over the country

I think we're heading for a crash. Not just a pullback, a crash. I don't know when, and I don't know what's going to set it off. But I believe it's coming soon.

So what's the lucrative play?

Short home builders? Buy puts on banks? Banks are already showing weakness. Maybe short timber companies or home improvement stores etc?

 

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[MitchC]

I don't care if I'm the only one keeping this thread going. Lol. It's a good idea for a thread and it should be more active.

Ok, hear me out on this one...

So you guys know I do marketing for real estate companies. But I'm a little myopic because everything is Phoenix-based.

Still I think there are some macroeconomic forces that are fairly obvious.

The FED just indicated they're going to raise rates two more times before the end of the year.

I'm hearing reports of home builders cutting prices.

People are getting laid off in numbers we haven't seen in a while.

Immigration is at highs, which slows wage growth.

Thus foreclosures have been increasing the last two years.

Overall inventory is much higher than it was at the off the record lows last year.

But inflation and speculation has driven the cost of homes higher and higher.

People can't afford homes, and interest rates have people sitting on the sidelines.

Even fix and flip has gotten way more difficult.

I'm seeing reports of just more and more homelessness all over the country

I think we're heading for a crash. Not just a pullback, a crash. I don't know when, and I don't know what's going to set it off. But I believe it's coming soon.

So what's the lucrative play?

Short home builders? Buy puts on banks? Banks are already showing weakness. Maybe short timber companies or home improvement stores etc?

Thanks man I'm glad you agree, I think due to the nature of the topic it maybe won't be all that active until an opportunity comes around.

And man you may have found one.

I'm not sure if it's happening in USA yet but here in Australia a bunch of massive home building companies have gone under, leaving people with half built homes and leaving all the small business subcontractors unpaid.

Basically from my limited research it seems they were almost run like ponzi schemes.

The margins were already thin, and then building and labor costs blew way out during covid and so did build times. For a company working on fixed price contracts and thin margins this was a disaster.

But they were held up by all the new contracts that kept coming in because everyone was buying and building.

Basically they were taking the money and deposits from these new contracts, and using that money to fund building the existing contracts.

Once people stopped signing up for new builds that money ran out so they started offering discounts for early payments, people were making these early payments right up until the day they went bankrupt.

There could definitely be some fraud or legal fraud involved too because one of the CEOs is worth like 100m+ and just walking away without a scratch.

I'm not sure if all the companies are the same, but it seemed to be the bigger companies that were affected because their margins are smaller and they probably just aren't run as efficiently as a smaller company. Which is good, because those are the ones that could be bet against in the market, not the smaller private ones.

Their suppliers may also take a hit if they can't pay their bills, but I'm not sure how much credit the suppliers give them and whether or not it would even come close to offsetting the insane money they all made during covid and now with inflation.

David's half-built house is an 'absolute nightmare' and might send him bankrupt

Two years after signing a $430,000 fixed price contract, boilermaker David Niblitt can no longer afford to finish the home that he and his wife had hoped they'd be living in by now.

www.abc.net.au

Another home builder goes bust as industry struggles

It comes just weeks after the collapse of one of Australia’s largest home builders, Porter Davis, and construction firm Lloyd Group.

7news.com.au

Two major building companies collapse just hours apart - building and construction news - API Magazine

Two major building companies collapse just hours apart The collapse of two large building companies, Porter Davis Homes Group and Lloyd Group, has left thousands of projects, clients and subcontractors in limbo and sent more shockwaves through an embattled industry.

www.apimagazine.com.au

Another Aussie building company collapses as costs bite

www.9news.com.au

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/two-more-building-companies-collapse-in-nsw-and-queensland/news-story/093ca893692de2edda1c631456919e71

ANOTHER Aussie home building company goes into administration

Mahercorp its customers it will enter voluntary administration but say it has 'not collapsed'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Subsonic]

I don't care if I'm the only one keeping this thread going. Lol. It's a good idea for a thread and it should be more active.

Ok, hear me out on this one...

So you guys know I do marketing for real estate companies. But I'm a little myopic because everything is Phoenix-based.

Still I think there are some macroeconomic forces that are fairly obvious.

The FED just indicated they're going to raise rates two more times before the end of the year.

I'm hearing reports of home builders cutting prices.

People are getting laid off in numbers we haven't seen in a while.

Immigration is at highs, which slows wage growth.

Thus foreclosures have been increasing the last two years.

Overall inventory is much higher than it was at the off the record lows last year.

But inflation and speculation has driven the cost of homes higher and higher.

People can't afford homes, and interest rates have people sitting on the sidelines.

Even fix and flip has gotten way more difficult.

I'm seeing reports of just more and more homelessness all over the country

I think we're heading for a crash. Not just a pullback, a crash. I don't know when, and I don't know what's going to set it off. But I believe it's coming soon.

So what's the lucrative play?

Short home builders? Buy puts on banks? Banks are already showing weakness. Maybe short timber companies or home improvement stores etc?

This is a interesting take.
I am also seeing everyone talk about houses being too expensive. If the general sentiment on something is that it's overpriced then that price is bound to drop.

I don't know too much about real estate right now but if there is lots of speculation then a somewhat strong price drop will inevitably cause a chain reaction of speculators getting F*cked. Tbh that crash would be something really nice to see right now.

 

[Robdavis]

I don't care if I'm the only one keeping this thread going. Lol. It's a good idea for a thread and it should be more active.

Ok, hear me out on this one...

So you guys know I do marketing for real estate companies. But I'm a little myopic because everything is Phoenix-based.

Still I think there are some macroeconomic forces that are fairly obvious.

The FED just indicated they're going to raise rates two more times before the end of the year.

I'm hearing reports of home builders cutting prices.

People are getting laid off in numbers we haven't seen in a while.

Immigration is at highs, which slows wage growth.

Thus foreclosures have been increasing the last two years.

Overall inventory is much higher than it was at the off the record lows last year.

But inflation and speculation has driven the cost of homes higher and higher.

People can't afford homes, and interest rates have people sitting on the sidelines.

Even fix and flip has gotten way more difficult.

I'm seeing reports of just more and more homelessness all over the country

I think we're heading for a crash. Not just a pullback, a crash. I don't know when, and I don't know what's going to set it off. But I believe it's coming soon.

So what's the lucrative play?

Short home builders? Buy puts on banks? Banks are already showing weakness. Maybe short timber companies or home improvement stores etc?

Usually, trying to "time" a market move, is a mugs game. So any attempt to try to short the market is going to be based on luck.

My thoughts would be that if people think that there is going to be a crash, then that might increase demand for rental properties, particularly cheaper ones. Do you have HMOs in the USA? These are houses of multiple occupation, typically rented by students or young professionals. So the people would rent a room with say three other friends, rather than rent a whole place. Maybe the USA is too wealthy for this sort of thing, but they are common in the UK.

The other play, might be to look at estate agents (realtors? / real estate brokers?). In the UK most estate agents do both rentals and property sales, this is because during a crash the sales side of the business tends to dry up, so you need the rentals business to keep the company afloat during a crash. If you have any realtors that only do property sales, then it might be worth betting that their competitors that do both sales and rentals will have less competition after the crash is over. (Go long their competitors)

Another one might be whether there would be any opportunities in distressed asset sales. This is either repossessed houses being sold cheap, or people selling their home contents to try to raise money to keep their roof over their head and avoid foreclosure.

This would mean looking for opportunities at car boot sales / yard sales / jumble sales / flea markets / rummage sales or property auctions.

I think that you will just have to keep your nose to the ground and sniff out opportunities as they arise. If you do have a house price crash, it will be a fast moving situation with opportunities emerging and disappearing rapidly and with rapidly changing asset prices.

Apologies for not knowing all the correct American terminology for some of these things.

EDIT: Pawnbrokers (pawn shops?) may do well if you have a recession. Either by investing in the company directly, or looking for how they liquidate their unclaimed assets.

EDIT2: Car auctions? Look for cars that have been returned to the finance companies or if you can find an auction company that has a contract with a major car finance firm, go long the auction company.

EDIT3: Another option might be to setup or invest in a "gold for cash" / "silver for cash" company. This is simply a firm that will buy gold / silver / precious metals from people for instant money. Obviously, a company such as this, will buy at below the market rate and then sell the gold / silver for scrap to make a profit. The danger with a business like this, is someone offering you fake metals in order to take the cash before you realise that you have been conned.

EDIT4: I think that these are just the standard recession plays really. So if you were investing for dividend, you might buy companies like food retailers eg Walmart or energy companies or telecommunications firms. Things that people tend to need all the time. Companies that tend to do well in recessions are pawnbrokers or accountancy firms that specialise in receivership or liquidation or bankruptcy.

EDIT5: If people having deteriorating credit references during a downturn, then you may find that "Payday Loans" firms or companies specializing in credit for those with poor credit have more custom.

 

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