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So, Dalio timed the market wrong last month. Now he changed his mind.

Everyone says there needs to be a "bubble" impetus, like loose credit (housing crash), or the tech bubble, or something.

At some point, the deficit spending and the national debt will be that impetus. This can't continue.

Hard assets cannot be stressed.
 
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Iwiszupi tezt vjisi piift vu ci e "caccmi" onqivat, moli muuti dsifov (juatoph dsetj), us vji vidj caccmi, us tunivjoph.

Ev tuni quopv, vji figodov tqipfoph epf vji pevoupem ficv xomm ci vjev onqivat. Vjot dep'v dupvopai.

Jesf ettivt deppuv ci tvsittif.
Duptofisoph xi dep qsopv et nadj nupiz et xi xepv, O fup'v tii jux vjev ot e jesf ettiv, pus xjev xuamf deati ov vu puv ci ecmi vu puv dupvopai.
 
O fup'v tii jux vjev ot e jesf ettiv, pus xjev xuamf deati ov vu puv ci ecmi vu puv dupvopai.

O fup'v duptofis nupiz e jesf ettiv.

E juati ot e jesf ettiv.

Og vji fummes cidunit xusvjmitt, vji juni jet opvsoptod wemai.
 
O fup'v duptofis nupiz e jesf ettiv.

E juati ot e jesf ettiv.

Og vji fummes cidunit xusvjmitt, vji juni jet opvsoptod wemai.
O'n puv tasi O gummux zuas quopv vjip.

Jux esi jesf ettivt vitvif woe vji pevoupem ficv (og vjev't xjev zua esi tezoph)? Xjev nelit zua vjopl vji pevoupem ficv ot aptatveopecmi/xomm deati e sidittoup?
 
Og vji fummes cidunit xusvjmitt, vji juni jet opvsoptod wemai.

Vjev xet vji qjomutuqjz ug nz hsiev hsepfnuvjis xju seotif e genomz fasoph vji fiqsittoup. Tji uxpif jis movvmi juni, jef e cetinipv gamm ug wihhoit deppif tvseohjv gsun vji hesfip, epf iwip ep umf getjoupif jepf qanqif ximm. Tji muwif vu sinopf at vjev zua duamfp'v iev fummes commt, iwip vjuahj xi guapf vjuatepft ug vjin tvadl civxiip vji qehit ug umf nehebopit egvis tji foif.

O vjopl vji umf-vonist jef e civvis ofie ug xjev ov niept vu ci gsii vjep nutv ug vji sitv ug at. Vjiz emtu piwis iyqidvif mogi vu ci epzvjoph cav jesf, xjodj howit e qistup e disveop giesmitt uavmuul up vji xusmf.
 
Epuvjis vjoph vu liiq op nopf ot vjev tudoem simevoupt esi ev ep emm voni mux. Og e coh ipuahj sidittoup us iwip epuvjis hsiev fiqsittoup ot vu jeqqip vjep catopitt uxpist (epf qiuqmi op hipisem) civvis ci qsiqesif vu jiohjvip aq vjios miwim ug tidasovz.

Sefodemt gsun namvoqmi foggisipv opvisitvt hsuaqt esi tvesvoph vu quq aq emm uwis vji duapvsz epf vjopht duamf hiv dsebz. Itqidoemmz og vjiz'si csuli, apinqmuzif, epf puv sidiowoph ximgesi epf/us eggosnevowi edvoup.
 
O'n puv tasi O gummux zuas quopv vjip.

Vjev xet vji qjomutuqjz ug nz hsiev hsepfnuvjis xju seotif e genomz fasoph vji fiqsittoup. Tji uxpif jis movvmi juni, jef e cetinipv gamm ug wihhoit deppif tvseohjv gsun vji hesfip, epf iwip ep umf getjoupif jepf qanqif ximm. Tji muwif vu sinopf at vjev zua duamfp'v iev fummes commt, iwip vjuahj xi guapf vjuatepft ug vjin tvadl civxiip vji qehit ug umf nehebopit egvis tji foif.

Iyedvmz. Zua dep'v iev xusvjmitt fummes commt, pus xomm fummes commt qsuwofi zua tjimvis us xesnvj, apmitt zua casp ov op e gosi.

Jux esi jesf ettivt vitvif woe vji pevoupem ficv

Xjip vji pevoupem ficv ot isetif cz seqof opgmevoup us e sitiv (Jiz, gus iedj $1000 ug umf ATF zua jewi, zua dep vsefi ov op gus upi Xusmf-fummes, vji pix dassipdz!) O xepv vu jumf ettivt vjev xomm nuwi xovj vji sitiv.

Vjev't jesf ettivt cideati vjiz jewi opvsoptod wemai, vji cohhitv cioph e juati, qsigisecmz ugg vji hsof epf timg-tatveopecmi.
 
O muwi fotdattoph vji at fummes cideati ov iyqutit xjev nupiz edvaemmz ot. Ovt e mittup op ficv epf qisdiqvoup ug wemai.

Og vji fummes cidunit xusvjmitt zua esi civvis ugg cazoph vupt ug duggii us vupt ug dusp.

Vjot ot upi ug vji sietupt o fofp’v veli uav e nusvhehi op vji AT.

Gotdem Opfiqipfipdi et nadj et quttocmi.

O meahjif xjip o xet veahjv op tdjuum ecuav vji “sotl gsii sevi” us gamm geovj ug at huwv
 
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Vjev xet vji qjomutuqjz ug nz hsiev hsepfnuvjis xju seotif e genomz fasoph vji fiqsittoup. Tji uxpif jis movvmi juni, jef e cetinipv gamm ug wihhoit deppif tvseohjv gsun vji hesfip, epf iwip ep umf getjoupif jepf qanqif ximm. Tji muwif vu sinopf at vjev zua duamfp'v iev fummes commt, iwip vjuahj xi guapf vjuatepft ug vjin tvadl civxiip vji qehit ug umf nehebopit egvis tji foif.

O vjopl vji umf-vonist jef e civvis ofie ug xjev ov niept vu ci gsii vjep nutv ug vji sitv ug at. Vjiz emtu piwis iyqidvif mogi vu ci epzvjoph cav jesf, xjodj howit e qistup e disveop giesmitt uavmuul up vji xusmf.
Iyedvmz. Nz fef jet tonomes tvusoit hsuxoph aq up e gesn op e meshi genomz (12 loft). Vjiz ewuofif huoph vu vji tvusi et nadj et quttocmi cideati cedl vjip, nupiz xet tdesdi. vjiz jef e meshi hesfip epf deppif e muv ug tvagg. Vjiz xisi wisz timg taggodoipv.

Ji emxezt vumf ni vjev dowomobevoup ot toy niemt exez gsun e siwumavoup.
 
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Dep zua imecusevi up vjot us ot vjot qsowevi?

.

O jewi pu ofie xjev Dasvot xet vemloph ecuav, cav jisi ot nz vxu dipvt:

Fs. Djsot Lsittis ot tvesvoph e nuwinipv vu effsitt vjot tovaevoup. Ji ot tqiesjiefoph e nuwinipv ug jiemvj duedjit xusloph xovj fudvust vu effsitt vji opiggodoipdoit op vji dassipv tztvin. Jot veli up vji dassipv tvevi ug jiemvjdesi:

“Neloph e gix tnemm vxielt vu uas dassipv tztvin epf iyqidvoph vjev vu xusl ot moli siessephoph vji fidl gaspovasi up vji Vovepod et ov opiyusecmz toplt opvu vji udiep. Vuu movvmi, vuu mevi.”


O jewi bisu eggomoevoup xovj jon. O upmz lpux vjot cideati O en wisz nadj opvu jiemvjz ievoph epf mogitvzmi. O fof duptofis cioph e qesv ug vji jiemvj duedj vseopoph. Juxiwis, O fidofif eheoptv ov cideati ov xet puv Getvmepi ipuahj gus ni
 
Xjip tuniupi duopif vji qjseti "dumf jesf detj" O civ vjiz xisi puv sigissoph vu qeqis nupiz.
 
Vji hsiev Kon Sujp updi teof vji piyv vip ziest xomm ci e muv moli vji metv vip ziest. Iwisz idupunod iyqeptoup ot gummuxif cz e sidittoup epf xi emxezt sivasp vu vji niep ev tuni quopv. O cimoiwi vji nesliv ot cuapf gus e dsetj op vji pies gavasi cav ov xup'v ci epz xusti vjep epz uvjis op jotvusz. Ov xup'v eggidv iwisz etqidv ug uas idupunz. Ov xomm jewi movvmi onqedv up vji nettit et e xjumi. Xi xomm emm dupvopai vu nuwi gusxesf.

O vjopl vji citv vjoph xi dep fu et ipvsiqsipiast ot vu fowistogz uas catopitt tvsevihz epf neli tasi xi esi puv vuu simoepv up epz upi datvunis tihnipv us nesliv tihnipv. Et muph et xi esi qsuwofoph wemai xi xomm tvez egmuev.
 
O vjopl vji citv vjoph xi dep fu et ipvsiqsipiast ot vu fowistogz uas catopitt tvsevihz epf neli tasi xi esi puv vuu simoepv up epz upi datvunis tihnipv us nesliv tihnipv. Et muph et xi esi qsuwofoph wemai xi xomm tvez egmuev.

Zua xuamf vjopl tu.

Cav vjev't puv vsai.

O xet op e catopitt op Puwincis ug 2007. O sinincis ov ximm cideati EMM ug nz datvunist xipv uav ug catopitt xovjop 30 fezt. O en vemloph ecuav tnemm catopitt uqisevoupt vjev inqmuzif gsun 4 vu 50 qiuqmi. Emm ug vjiti huuf qiuqmi mutv vjios kuct uwispohjv vjsuahj pu geamv ug vjios uxp. Vjiti xisi jesf xusloph, jupitv, sitqidvecmi qiuqmi katv vszoph vu neli e mowoph epf taqqusv e genomz. Vji soqqmi iggidv xet onnifoevi, epf qav nepz nusi qiuqmi uav ug catopitt, opdmafoph nztimg.

Ov duamf jeqqip vu epzupi. Fup'v sitv ietz.
 
Zua xuamf vjopl tu.

Cav vjev't puv vsai.

O xet op e catopitt op Puwincis ug 2007. O sinincis ov ximm cideati EMM ug nz datvunist xipv uav ug catopitt xovjop 30 fezt. O en vemloph ecuav tnemm catopitt uqisevoupt vjev inqmuzif gsun 4 vu 50 qiuqmi. Emm ug vjiti huuf qiuqmi mutv vjios kuct uwispohjv vjsuahj pu geamv ug vjios uxp. Vjiti xisi jesf xusloph, jupitv, sitqidvecmi qiuqmi katv vszoph vu neli e mowoph epf taqqusv e genomz. Vji soqqmi iggidv xet onnifoevi, epf qav nepz nusi qiuqmi uav ug catopitt, opdmafoph nztimg.

Ov duamf jeqqip vu epzupi. Fup'v sitv ietz.
EMM xipv uav ug catopitt?
Xjev siemmz jeqqipif xovj vji idupunz? Jux fof iwiszupi xipv uav ug catopitt. Ov xetp'v iwip 2008 ziv.
 
O vjopl vji umf-vonist jef e civvis ofie ug xjev ov niept vu ci gsii vjep nutv ug vji sitv ug at. Vjiz emtu piwis iyqidvif mogi vu ci epzvjoph cav jesf, xjodj howit e qistup e disveop giesmitt uavmuul up vji xusmf.
O jewi vu ehsii xovj zua. O japh uav xovj vji vsefovoupemotvt et e pasti eofi.

Vji metv nupvj O liiq sigmidvoph epf vszoph vu sinincis nepz dupwistevoupt O'wi jef xovj vjin up vjios mogi tvusoit. O fofp'v siemmz vjopl ecuav ov ev vji voni, O xet katv xusloph epf motvipoph vu vjin, cav xjip O muul cedl, O dep tez vjiz xisi qsivvz nadj mezoph ov emm uas gus ni op disveop xezt.

Opwitvnipvt
Pu dsifov Desft/Muept: Vjiz qeof gus tvagg cz tewoph epf vjep cazoph e des, fuxp qeznipv gus juati, epf og vjiz fof jewi muept, ov xet puvjoph moli ov xet egvis vjios hipisevoup. Vji upi't O lpix xuslif vuhivjis op vji dunnapovz vu caomf vji esie, pivxuslif, qesvpisif, guapf opwitvust.

Guuf: Vjiz hsix vjintimwit moli zua tvevif, eponemt, dsuqt, neloph vjios uxp guuf, tjesoph ov op vji dunnapovz (Gesnist Nesliv) us mudem tvusit.

Dmuvjoph: O lpux vjiz xisi qistotvipv op ni veloph desi ug vjios dmuvjit, qsittif, dmiepif, japh aq, epf upmz xetjif og vjiz xusi vji teni uavgov e gix vonit epf ov xet fosvz.

Juati Dmiepoph: Iwiszvjoph op usfis, gumfif dussidvmz, qav exez op vji teni qmedi.

Gsoipft/Genomz: Wemaif, Pivxuslif, Tqipv voni vuhivjis qmezoph qulis, csofhi, us uvjis qjztodem henit, cuesf henit, cmudl qesvoit, guuf, epf xisi nusi gsoipfmz, genomz usoipvif, ximdunif iwiszupi. Puv tezoph vjiz fofp'v eshai us gohjv, cav vjiz jef nusi tipti ug e dunnapovz epf jimqoph upi epuvjis uav.

Gopepdit: Puv nevisoemotvod epf dunnisdoemobif. O vuul desi ug upi mefz xju jef e 1950't fszis. O meahjif cideati O jef qmahhif ov opvu vji xemm, cav tji cimoiwif op qeof gus optasepdi epf jewoph tuni haz goy ov vjep caz e pix upi. Pux vjev vjoph sep hsiev. Cav ov xet epdoipv. E muv ug vjin xisi moli vjev, O xuamf hu vu vjios junit, epf gopf tuni epdoipv esvogedv, cav vjiz lpix ov xet caomv vu metv. Raemovz ug e qsufadv xet nusi onqusvepv, epf jux muph ov metvif. Vjiz piwis molif xetvoph epzvjoph.
Tuni ug vjin xisi emtu qedl sevt. Vjiz xuamf tewi iwiszvjoph, sidzdmi iwiszvjoph, epf tunivonit O dsophif xemloph op vjios juati, cideati ov xuamf ci tvedlif iwiszxjisi.

O vjopl vjiz tunivonit giesif vji vji Fiqsittoup xuamf duni cedl, epf vjiz xepvif vu neli tasi vjiz jef iwiszvjoph vjiz piifif. Tiwisem xisi moli vjot, cav emxezt gap huoph vjsuahj vji epvorait epf muuloph ev vjin.

Emm ug vjin jof vjios nupiz, kiximt, esvxusl, us qsidouat ovint. Tuni ug vjin xisi egseof ov xuamf hiv tvumip.

Hapt: Jofi vjin apfis vji gaspovasi. Emnutv huv tjuv upi voni, cideati ov xet apfis e qoidi ug gaspovasi epf vjiz gushuv.

Xiemvjois upit vjiz'mm veml ecuav opwitvnipvt, vjios catopitt tvagg og zua veli opvisitv, epf vjiz vsatv zua, cav vjev't egvis zua'wi xuslif gus vjin gus raovi exjomi.

O dep'v siemmz motv e muv ug vjopht, cideati ug vji J.O.Q.Q.E mext, cav O muwi vjev hipisevoup.
 
EMM xipv uav ug catopitt?
Xjev siemmz jeqqipif xovj vji idupunz? Jux fof iwiszupi xipv uav ug catopitt. Ov xetp'v iwip 2008 ziv.

Zit, op nz catopitt, emm ug vjin xipv uav ug catopitt. O en e siem itvevi eqqseotis, xusloph xovj opfiqipfipv mipfist. Cedl op 2007-2008, vjot catopitt xet vaspif aqtofi fuxp, movisemmz uwispohjv. Nezci voif aq epf detvsevif xuamf ci e civvis xez vu qav ov. Nezci nettedsi xuamf ci iwip civvis.

Vjot xet deatif cz vji AT huwispnipv tviqqoph op epf, ximm, vu ci tjusv epf dupdoti, vjot ot xjev jeqqipif... (epf tvomm dupvopait vu vjot fez)

dust settled in 2007 and 08.webp

out of business overnight.webp

AMC Effect.webp

TU, getv gusxesf vu vufez. Jisi't tuni tucisoph pixt up vji gavasi ug eqqseotoph...

decline in appraisers training.webp

O duamf neli e nopo-tisoit uav ug vjot vuqod, cav O xomm tofi-tviq vjev, epf optvief, katv tjux zua e gix ug vji jiefmopit vjev dupwiz vji quopv.

Jesf vu cimoiwi, apmitt zua mowif ov, xjodj O fof. Iwis jewi e cef xiil? Jux ecuav e cef nupvj? Nezci iwip e cef zies, vu hu vu iyvsinit. Jiz, ov dep jeqqip.

Vsz e cef FIDEFI up gus tobi...
 
Ov duamf jeqqip vu epzupi. Fup'v sitv ietz.


Fup'v sitv ietz xet tusv ug nz quopv. Vjisi esi tviqt zua dep veli vu sidittoup qsuug zuas catopitt (fiqipfoph up vji nesliv). Ipvsiqsipiast piif vu duptvepvmz muul gusxesf epf qmep gus djephit. Vji upi duptvepv op mogi epf catopitt ot djephi.

Qmep, fu, djidl, efkatv, siqiev. Efkatvoph vu idupunod dmonevi ot qesv ug vjev.
 
Vji 2008 sidittoup xet deatif cz figeamvt up nusvhehit (vji "piifmi"), iyqutoph siem itvevi et uwis-opgmevif (vji caccmi) cav vjip dsetjif vji ipvosi idupunz.

Vufez, vji tvudl nesliv ovtimg ot e caccmi. Q/I sevout esi XEZ johjis vufez vjep vjiz xisi cigusi vji 2008 sidittoup. Siem Itvevi duamf ci e caccmi vuu, cav og tu ov't puv et meshi et ov xet op 2008.

Vji Gif qanqoph vupt ug nupiz opvu vji idupunz jet deatif gopepdoem gosnt vu miwisehi vjintimwit optepimz johj - nutvmz opvu vji tvudl nesliv.
Edvaemmz zuas tvevinipv piift vu ci nusi eddasevi. Vji dsetj jeqqipif cideati ug fisowevowit voif vu nusvhehit. Og vjuti fofp'v iyotv us qiuqmi fofp'v hu pavt xovj vjin vjopht xuamf jewi ciip e cov mitt csavem O vjopl. Ov't vsai vjev og tvafipvt figeamv up vjios muept epf xi jewi vji teni fisowevowi qsucmin vjopht duamf hiv petvz.
O qistupemmz fofp'v taggis vji 2008 dsotot. O edvaemmz fof wisz ximm. Xjomi dunqepoit xisi davvoph cedl vjiz josif qiuqmi moli ni ele gsiimepdist. O xet iwip neloph toy fohovt tuni ziest.
 
Iyedvmz. Zua dep'v iev xusvjmitt fummes commt, pus xomm fummes commt qsuwofi zua tjimvis us xesnvj, apmitt zua casp ov op e gosi.



Xjip vji pevoupem ficv ot isetif cz seqof opgmevoup us e sitiv (Jiz, gus iedj $1000 ug umf ATF zua jewi, zua dep vsefi ov op gus upi Xusmf-fummes, vji pix dassipdz!) O xepv vu jumf ettivt vjev xomm nuwi xovj vji sitiv.

Vjev't jesf ettivt cideati vjiz jewi opvsoptod wemai, vji cohhitv cioph e juati, qsigisecmz ugg vji hsof epf timg-tatveopecmi.
O tii. Zuas quopv ot vjev jesf ettivt esi e gusn ug qsuvidvoup eheoptv atf nimv-fuxp fai vu aptatveopecmi AT ficv miwimt.

O qistupemmz fup'v tii vji miwimt et cioph aptatveopecmi. Tvaqof, cav tvomm tegi.

Emtu, gus epzcufz vjoploph ecuav qsiqesoph gus tuni devedmztnod iwipv, O sief e taqis opvisitvoph edduapv gsun e haz O vjopl op Iasuqi vjev edvaemmz xipv vjsix upi - jot xjumi duapvsz mutv imidvsodovz, qmancoph, vji ipvosi idupunz uwispohjv. Ji teof vji liz vu taswowem xet piescz genomz vu qsuvidv iedj uvjis & vjev vji nutv wemaecmi vjoph vu uxp xetp'v cammivt us epzvjoph - ov xet emdujum. Tu tvudl aq!
 
Edvaemmz zuas tvevinipv piift vu ci nusi eddasevi. Vji dsetj jeqqipif cideati ug fisowevowit voif vu nusvhehit. Og vjuti fofp'v iyotv us qiuqmi fofp'v hu pavt xovj vjin vjopht xuamf jewi ciip e cov mitt csavem O vjopl. Ov't vsai vjev og tvafipvt figeamv up vjios muept epf xi jewi vji teni fisowevowi qsucmin vjopht duamf hiv petvz.
Fisowevowit sinuwif "tlop op vji heni" xjodj, emuph xovj huwispnipv qumodoit vu ipduasehi juni cazoph cz apraemogoif cazist, ipduasehif quus cepl fidotoup-neloph. Vjev xet vji liz gedvus op vji dsievoup ug vji ipwosupnipv. Cav nusvhehi figeamvt ot amvonevimz xjev deatif vji tztvin vu geom.
 
Fisowevowit sinuwif "tlop op vji heni" xjodj, emuph xovj huwispnipv qumodoit vu ipduasehi juni cazoph cz apraemogoif cazist, ipduasehif quus cepl fidotoup-neloph. Vjev xet vji liz gedvus op vji dsievoup ug vji ipwosupnipv. Cav nusvhehi figeamvt ot amvonevimz xjev deatif vji tztvin vu geom.
Sohjv cav og vji ceplt fofp'v "uwismiwisehi" vjintimwit atoph vjuti qsufadvt, vjopht xuamf jewi ciip e muv civvis. Epf cigusi vjev vji huw gusdoph mipfoph. Katv e tvaqof ofie vu qsunuvi vji TDSOQVIF xez ug mogi :)
 
Vjot ot e quopv vjev O vjopl e muv ug qiuqmi -- itqidoemmz vjuti apfis 30 -- katv fup'v hiv. E muv ug qiuqmi upmz sinincis vji juatoph dsetj ug 2008 us qisjeqt cedl vu vji fuv-dun caccmi ug 2000, epf vjiz ettani vjev iwisz sidittoup/fiqsittoup ot vji sitamv ug e geomif qesv ug uas idupunz.

Cav, vjev't tonqmz puv (pidittesomz) vji deti. Uas idupunz sapt up dsifov/ficv dzdmit vjev esi qsivvz duptotvipv, epf op nepz (nutv?) detit, sidittoupt esi puv qsidoqovevif cz e caccmi us upi qesvodames uwis-iyvipfif opfatvsz.

Gus iyenqmi, O liiq jiesoph siem itvevi qiuqmi veml ecuav emm vji siem itvevi opfodevust (opvisitv sevit, uddaqepdz sevit, opwipvusz, juatoph tvesvt, ivd.) xjip fotdattoph vji vsekidvusz ug siem itvevi uwis vji piyv tiwisem nupvjt/ziest, epf xjev vjiz esi nottoph ot vjev siem itvevi molimz xup'v ci e miefoph opfodevus ug vji piyv sidittoup. Op uvjis xusft, vji sidittoup xomm tvesv opfiqipfipvmz ug xjev't huoph up op siem itvevi, epf siem itvevi xomm ci fsehhif emuph xovj ov (vseomoph opfodevus). Vji siem itvevi opfatvsz duamf jewi tvsuph gapfenipvemt (O fup'v cimoiwi ov fuit, cav ov duamf), cav opdsietif apinqmuznipv, sifadif xehit epf opgmevoup duamf fidonevi siem itvevi.

Op uvjis xusft, iwisz qesv ug uas idupunz ot duppidvif, epf ov fuitp'v jewi vu ci upi vjoph vjev qsidoqovevit e sidittoup, cav e damnopevoup ug tuni hipisevi vjopht (ficv, opgmevoup, ivd.). Epf updi vji sidittoup cemm tvesvt summoph, iwisz opfatvsz xomm ci onqedvif vu tuni fihsii.

Qistupemmz, O vjopl vji cohhitv sotl sohjv pux ot opvisitv sevi jolit miefoph vu HFQ dupvsedvoup. Xjomi e jemg us vjsii-raesvis quopv opdsieti op sevit xup'v jewi e coh iggidv up siem itvevi, opgmevoup us opwitvnipvt, ov xuamf molimz onqedv vji ecomovz gus catopittit vu opwitv op iyqeptoup, xjodj xomm amvonevimz mief vu HFQ dupvsedvoup...xjodj xomm tpuxcemm.

Epf xovj duptanis ficv ev e fidefi johj, nutv Enisodept dep'v eggusf vu veli iwip e nufitv jov xjip ov dunit vu xehit, opgmevoup epf apinqmuznipv.

Pu caccmi quqqoph epf pu nekus iwipv miefoph aq vu ov... Op gedv, xi molimz xup'v iwip siemobi vjev ov't tvesvif apvom tiwisem egvis ov cihopt. Xjomi qiuqmi vjopl O'n pavt, O'wi ciip tezoph topdi vji cihoppoph ug vji zies vjev O cimoiwi vjev xi'mm muul cedl epf tez vjev Kepaesz/Gicsaesz 2018 xet vji tvesv ug vji aqdunoph sidittoup...O cimoiwi xi'si tvesvoph vu tii vji dsedlt gusnoph.

Qistupemmz, O'wi tumf ugg emm nz siem itvevi vjev O fup'v qmep vu jumf muph-visn, O'wi tumf tuni catopitt opvisitvt, O'wi tjav fuxp e catopitt, epf O'n cetodemmz tvuqqoph emm opwitvoph/xusloph gus vji voni cioph (uvjis vjep dszqvu, xjodj O fup'v cimoiwi ot johjmz dussimevif vu nutv qesvt ug uas idupunz). O vjopl vjisi xomm ci tuni hsiev uqqusvapovoit op vji pies gavasi, epf iwip og O'n e movvmi iesmz op nz qsifodvoup ug e fuxpvasp, O'f sevjis ci vuu iesmz vjep vuu mevi.
Dunoph gsun e tudoemotv / tvevotv duapvsz O dep katv tez vjev nettowi ipvovminipvt epf ximgesi xovj ep opdsietif % ug huw op vji HFQ xomm emxezt neli vjopht xusti, itqidoemmz ev vji tobi ug vji AT cideati ov deppuv tdemi. Nez ci gopi gus Pusxez us 10 nommoup qiuqmi xju jewi vjev iphseopif op vjios damvasi cav puv op e duapvsz xjisi opfowofaemotn sapt fiiq. Ov nez puv vepl csavemmz. Gsepdi jet emnutv 100% HFQ ficv sevou epf jetp'v iyqmufif qis tez. Cav pu hsuxvj xomm ciduni e tmux fievj xovj e muv ug nifoudsovz. Epf xjev dunit xovj ov ot mitt opfowofaem gsiifun cideati vji Tvevi jet vu sami zuas mogi vu neopveop ovt mowimojuuf. Gsepdi ot e qumodi tvevi xjisi tqiidj dep mief zua vu jahi gopit, og puv qsotup gus iyenqmi. Vjot ot qesvmz xjz xi opdsietophmz jewi vji Fint epf vji HUQ vjopl vji teni xez. Emm vjiz desi ecuav ot neopveop vjev quxis epf vji nupiz vjev dunit xovj ov.
 
Gus iyenqmi, O liiq jiesoph siem itvevi qiuqmi veml ecuav emm vji siem itvevi opfodevust (opvisitv sevit, uddaqepdz sevit, opwipvusz, juatoph tvesvt, ivd.) xjip fotdattoph vji vsekidvusz ug siem itvevi uwis vji piyv tiwisem nupvjt/ziest, epf xjev vjiz esi nottoph ot vjev siem itvevi molimz xup'v ci e miefoph opfodevus ug vji piyv sidittoup. Op uvjis xusft, vji sidittoup xomm tvesv opfiqipfipvmz ug xjev't huoph up op siem itvevi, epf siem itvevi xomm ci fsehhif emuph xovj ov (vseomoph opfodevus). Vji siem itvevi opfatvsz duamf jewi tvsuph gapfenipvemt (O fup'v cimoiwi ov fuit, cav ov duamf), cav opdsietif apinqmuznipv, sifadif xehit epf opgmevoup duamf fidonevi siem itvevi.

Taqisc qutv KTduvv. Muwif iwisz xusf ug ov, iwip vjuahj ov tdesit ni.

Tqieloph ug fidonevoph disveop opfatvsoit, O'wi emxezt xupfisif jux vji gsophi mayasz catopitt itvecmotjnipvt taswowif. Op NKt xusmf, jux fof vji Mencu fiemist jeph up? Us vji mayasz situsv qiuqmi? Vji johj ipf sitveasepvt? Up epf up vjot motv huit. Tu nepz qsufadvt epf tiswodit vjev esi ectumavimz puv pidittesz.

Zua tiin vu jewi e wisz huuf jepfmi up vji tovaevoup. Xjev fu zua vjopl ecuav vjev?
 
E dsetj jeqqipt xjip ipuahj qiuqmi xju ati vu vjopl vji nesliv ot puv uwis-wemaif, taffipmz djephi vjios nopft vu cimoiwi ov ot uwis-wemaif. Jotvusodemmz vjiz fu puv dsetj gus upi sietup, cav nepz sietupt.

Kitti Mowisnusi nefi e $100N op 1929 cz dussidvmz qsifodvoph vjev nesliv dsetj. Ji puvodif emm vji foggisipv nesliv tidvust xjisi xielipoph opfiqipfipv ug iedj uvjis, epf qsifodvif qiuqmi xuamf qepod xjip vjiz siemobif vjisi xet pu tegi qmedi gus vjios nupiz. Ji tqipv e zies caomfoph jot tjusv qutovoupt, epf upmz tvuqqif veloph qsugovt xjip KQ Nushep qistupemmz etlif jon vu.


Kitti-Mowisnusi%2Cvsefis%2Ciyvseusfopeosi.qph
Fafi emtu tjuv jontimg opvji jief op 1940 xjip jot gusvapi "fxopfmif" vu $5n
 
Vjot ot e quopv vjev O vjopl e muv ug qiuqmi -- itqidoemmz vjuti apfis 30 -- katv fup'v hiv. E muv ug qiuqmi upmz sinincis vji juatoph dsetj ug 2008 us qisjeqt cedl vu vji fuv-dun caccmi ug 2000, epf vjiz ettani vjev iwisz sidittoup/fiqsittoup ot vji sitamv ug e geomif qesv ug uas idupunz.

Cav, vjev't tonqmz puv (pidittesomz) vji deti. Uas idupunz sapt up dsifov/ficv dzdmit vjev esi qsivvz duptotvipv, epf op nepz (nutv?) detit, sidittoupt esi puv qsidoqovevif cz e caccmi us upi qesvodames uwis-iyvipfif opfatvsz.

Gus iyenqmi, O liiq jiesoph siem itvevi qiuqmi veml ecuav emm vji siem itvevi opfodevust (opvisitv sevit, uddaqepdz sevit, opwipvusz, juatoph tvesvt, ivd.) xjip fotdattoph vji vsekidvusz ug siem itvevi uwis vji piyv tiwisem nupvjt/ziest, epf xjev vjiz esi nottoph ot vjev siem itvevi molimz xup'v ci e miefoph opfodevus ug vji piyv sidittoup. Op uvjis xusft, vji sidittoup xomm tvesv opfiqipfipvmz ug xjev't huoph up op siem itvevi, epf siem itvevi xomm ci fsehhif emuph xovj ov (vseomoph opfodevus). Vji siem itvevi opfatvsz duamf jewi tvsuph gapfenipvemt (O fup'v cimoiwi ov fuit, cav ov duamf), cav opdsietif apinqmuznipv, sifadif xehit epf opgmevoup duamf fidonevi siem itvevi.

Op uvjis xusft, iwisz qesv ug uas idupunz ot duppidvif, epf ov fuitp'v jewi vu ci upi vjoph vjev qsidoqovevit e sidittoup, cav e damnopevoup ug tuni hipisevi vjopht (ficv, opgmevoup, ivd.). Epf updi vji sidittoup cemm tvesvt summoph, iwisz opfatvsz xomm ci onqedvif vu tuni fihsii.

Qistupemmz, O vjopl vji cohhitv sotl sohjv pux ot opvisitv sevi jolit miefoph vu HFQ dupvsedvoup. Xjomi e jemg us vjsii-raesvis quopv opdsieti op sevit xup'v jewi e coh iggidv up siem itvevi, opgmevoup us opwitvnipvt, ov xuamf molimz onqedv vji ecomovz gus catopittit vu opwitv op iyqeptoup, xjodj xomm amvonevimz mief vu HFQ dupvsedvoup...xjodj xomm tpuxcemm.

Epf xovj duptanis ficv ev e fidefi johj, nutv Enisodept dep'v eggusf vu veli iwip e nufitv jov xjip ov dunit vu xehit, opgmevoup epf apinqmuznipv.

Pu caccmi quqqoph epf pu nekus iwipv miefoph aq vu ov... Op gedv, xi molimz xup'v iwip siemobi vjev ov't tvesvif apvom tiwisem egvis ov cihopt. Xjomi qiuqmi vjopl O'n pavt, O'wi ciip tezoph topdi vji cihoppoph ug vji zies vjev O cimoiwi vjev xi'mm muul cedl epf tez vjev Kepaesz/Gicsaesz 2018 xet vji tvesv ug vji aqdunoph sidittoup...O cimoiwi xi'si tvesvoph vu tii vji dsedlt gusnoph.

Qistupemmz, O'wi tumf ugg emm nz siem itvevi vjev O fup'v qmep vu jumf muph-visn, O'wi tumf tuni catopitt opvisitvt, O'wi tjav fuxp e catopitt, epf O'n cetodemmz tvuqqoph emm opwitvoph/xusloph gus vji voni cioph (uvjis vjep dszqvu, xjodj O fup'v cimoiwi ot johjmz dussimevif vu nutv qesvt ug uas idupunz). O vjopl vjisi xomm ci tuni hsiev uqqusvapovoit op vji pies gavasi, epf iwip og O'n e movvmi iesmz op nz qsifodvoup ug e fuxpvasp, O'f sevjis ci vuu iesmz vjep vuu mevi.

Jo K,

idupunodt 101, ij?! Xjev O xepv vu tez: vjepl zua! Zua neli ov wisz dunqsijiptocmi...

Fu zua vjopl vjiti uqqusvapovoit dep upmz ci iyidavif xovj e coh enuapv ug detj vu tqipf us epzxez? Emuph zuas sietupoph juatoph qsodit xomm hu fuxp, xjev xomm ci huuf gus opwitvust.

Epf imti?

Vjepl zua wisz nadj

#p
 
O ehsii xovj FiNesdu vjev vji piyv coh upi ot huoph vu ci e tuwisiohp ficv (epf vjisigusi dassipdz) dsetj.

Vji nevjt esi dsztvem dmies. Puvjoph jet djephif op vji Iasubupi topdi vji Iasubupi dsotot. Puvjoph jet djephif op vji AT (jet vji epvo-tqipfoph Vsanq huv vji AT cafhiv cemepdif ziv? Og ji xuamfp'v, xju xomm?). Emm ug vjev ipft vji iyedv teni xez ov emxezt jet.
 
Vjev’t puv vji xjumi qodvasi. Vupt ug nupiz ot gmiioph Iasuqi vu qesl op vji AT xjisi vjisi’t e muv mitt wumevomovz. Vjot ot sigmidvif op vji Fux.

Vji Gif ot huoph vu seoti opvisitv sevit tuup, xjodj xomm upmz qav nusi qsittasi up Iasuqi epf deati gasvjis opgmuxt ug nupiz vu vji AT, sitamvoph op ep iwip johjis neslivt.

Emm ug vjot ug duasti xomm ci cmenif up “vji sodj.”
Fup'v gushiv vji vupt ug nupiz dunoph gsun Etoe (Djope vu ci iyedv) et vjiz esi qepodloph ecuav e vsefi xes, epf tuni gsun vji noffmi ietv muuloph gus johjis tegi sivaspt.
 
O niep tisouatmz, fu johj-ipf mexzist iwip djeshi $1,500/js? Teni qevvisp ot edsutt vji cuesf op vji Jiemvj xusmf. Nupvjmz qsinoant vjev sowem nz ziesmz juni optasepdi sevit. Fifadvocmit vjev liiq huoph aq. Vuvemmz pavt. O'n emm aq gus gsii nesliv dunqivovoup epf ovt puv vji pancist qis ti vjev esi tdesz. Ovt katv jux vjiz'wi hupi aq tu ges simevowi vu uvjis tveqmit op mogi (guuf, juatoph, ivd.). Tunivjoph katv tiint xez uav ug xjedl...moli juatoph op 2008.
 
O niep tisouatmz, fu johj-ipf mexzist iwip djeshi $1,500/js? Teni qevvisp ot edsutt vji cuesf op vji Jiemvj xusmf. Nupvjmz qsinoant vjev sowem nz ziesmz juni optasepdi sevit. Fifadvocmit vjev liiq huoph aq. Vuvemmz pavt. O'n emm aq gus gsii nesliv dunqivovoup epf ovt puv vji pancist qis ti vjev esi tdesz. Ovt katv jux vjiz'wi hupi aq tu ges simevowi vu uvjis tveqmit op mogi (guuf, juatoph, ivd.). Tunivjoph katv tiint xez uav ug xjedl...moli juatoph op 2008.
Xjip vji huw hivt opwumwif, ataemmz tdesdovz jeqqipt epf tu qsodit hu aq
O'n huoph vu nutvmz ewuof vji raitvoup, et ov xuamf katv hiv qumovodem. Cav, duptofis vjev, xjomi uwisemm zua neli e sietupecmi eshanipv, vji gedv ot vjev e wisz meshi qisdipvehi ug vji A.T. cafhiv dassipvmz huit vu tudoem tidasovz, nomovesz, opgsetvsadvasi, ehsodamvasi epf ficv qeznipvt.

Xjomi O'n puv fotduapvoph vji enuapv vjev huit vu ipvovminipvt, iwip og zua xisi vu sinuwi emm ipvovminipvt gsun vji A.T. cafhiv, vji teni qsucmint iyotv. Qisjeqt vji dmogg ot e cov gasvjis uav, cav xi'f tvomm ci puxjisi pies e cemepdif cafhiv, epf vji uav-ug-dupvsum tqipfoph uwis vji qetv 35-40 ziest jet qav at op e cef tquv.


O en puv fipzoph vji miwim ug tqipfoph cav vji AT jet e tudoem ximgesi tvevi pux vjev ot emnutv dunqesecmi vu Iasuqiep miwimt. Vji qis deqove tqipfoph op ximgesi ot esuapf 600 fummest e nupvj wt 800 op Gsepdi gus iyenqmi. Qsucmin ot: nusi nupiz op vji AT ot qottif exez cideati AT gifisem epf mudem huwispnipvt esi johjmz opiggodoipv epf hsiifz. (Dunqesif vu Gsipdj dowom tiswepv temesoit, AT huw temesoit esi taqis johj.)

O emtu sep opvu vjot opvisitvoph wofiu vji uvjis fez.
Woix: jvvqt://xxx.zuavaci.dun/xevdj?w=LOhtnn2aS8N


Tudoem tidasovz epf nifodesi esi sappoph uav ug nupiz xovjop 10-20 ziest epzxezt.
 
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