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As MJ's quote goes, "would you rather be right or be rich"? Same principle applies here, "would you rather be right, or be severely ill (or worse) with the chance of harming your own family members and friends?"
The market doesn't care how badly you want to make money, just like the market doesn't care about your opinions of the virus. You might think the virus is nothing, but millions of others do.
South Korea has been extremely prudent in getting ahead of the virus compared to most countries. They were more prepared than anyone to face a virus of this magnitude. You have to compare apples to apples.
South Korea has ran 740x the amount of C0VlD-19 tests per capita compared to the US. You don't think this stat has anything to do with how "well" Korea is handling this?
Actually, no...I don’t think it has anything to do with how SK is handling it compared to other countries, at least at the level of the patient
it’s very smart to be testing, it picks up early cases and can help slow the spread by limiting their exposure and risk of infecting other people. SK is in the first inning right now, look at recovered vs dead and the picture is anything but certain, it’s around 19% fatality rate FYI.
But this is an artifact and needlessly high at the moment because the time to full recovery appears to be long, 30 days or so, but very vulnerable people will succumb early on, this the v ery high dead to recovered.
That’s why we need time stratified cohorts, too many newly sick, the most vulnerable die quickly, many will survive but it takes a long time for them to be considered a survivor.
However for those infected, the individual patient, there is no treatment, cure, etc that knowing early can give you a head start or a leg up. Their mortality numbers are and will be a function of the number infected and the type of risk factor of the individual patient. Lastly will be the availability of medical resources.
reports out of Italy appear they are triaging a mass casualty situation. Basically people are grouped into 3 designations. Critical unlikely to live, serious/critical likely to live, and stable. The critical unlikely to live do not receive the limited resource and you shift your focus to care and use resources to those that require advanced care and are the most likely to survive.
Basically you begin to allocate resources not to the sickest, but to the healthiest that still needs advanced care to survive. For example two people require a ventilator, both would die without, the least sick of the two is given thee ventilator.
I have been through these situations before, think mass casualty situation with very large number of injured. It’s a very different medical system than people are accustomed to. The decision making is totally flipped from what you see normally in the health care setting (I.e. most time and resources to the sickest). Italy appears to have entered this phase of care.
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