Buying Opportunity?

[max momo]

Per my last post, $34 held as support – and silver has now started a contra-cyclical bounce off that number. I expect it will fail, since the fib retracement off the high exceeded the first support and believe after making this move higher, silver will fall to the next level around $31.90. To finish off the correction silver may decline into the second week of June, around $25.50 or 26$. All subject to change, but no reason to switch the horse I rode in just yet…

 

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[max momo]

And now that I bought back in Silver at $34.xx, plan to sell at the upcoming resistance levels which previously had been support targets. Support levels when the trend is up become resistance when the trend is down. So, plan to sell at 38 and/or $41.20.

One more very important point. During major bull epochs, and silver is in one, the up movement is slow and steady over long time periods whereas the down movements are short and very sharp. Note that silver has NOT had a $2 or $3 up day in the last 10 solid years. But, silver has had both a $2 and $3 DOWN day in just the last 10 days!!!

 

[Guest3722A]

And now that I bought back in Silver at $34.xx, plan to sell at the upcoming resistance levels which previously had been support targets. Support levels when the trend is up become resistance when the trend is down. So, plan to sell at 38 and/or $41.20.

One more very important point. During major bull epochs, and silver is in one, the up movement is slow and steady over long time periods whereas the down movements are short and very sharp. Note that silver has NOT had a $2 or $3 up day in the last 10 solid years. But, silver has had both a $2 and $3 DOWN day in just the last 10 days!!!

Max, do you trade directly in the futures market or etf, and do you use protective stops? Thanks

 

[^eagle^]

I bought the dollar at the top of the rally ( actually I am selling the eur/usd which is the same as buying a dollar future) as the silver sell off was the trigger to move everything else. I suspect it will be sometime before investors flee the dollar (at least a month) I suspect silver and other commodities take a beating they deserve for being overvalued because everyone was scared about all the mid east uprisings.
\
I caught BOTH drops on the e/u for a nice profit. the dollar should rally until at least mid month when retail sales comes in.

Looking for the third drop and those draw down trades I have been holding hit TP. On the e/u the final hour on friday was a selling scramble. Look for more downside in the coming two weeks.

 

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[Likwid24]

I suspect silver and other commodities take a beating they deserve for being overvalued because everyone was scared about all the mid east uprisings.

Don't be fooled into thinking that because Bin Laden is dead, that's the end of terrorism. In fact it will probably be complete opposite. Now that we killed their leader and showcased it for the world to see, they will be angrier than ever and looking for revenge. All I see is more unrest in the middle east and it's going to get worse in the U.S. Once terrorism hits our country with suicide bombers like in Israel, people will be more scared than ever before. It's not a matter of if it's going to happen, more of a matter of when. I think it's the greatest thing in the world that we got this bastard but on the other hand it could be one of the worst things that ever happened to this country. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[^eagle^]

The banks and their propaganda machine are well oiled for this. If you read closely this is only a two week to four week forcast. It will take a few weeks before al qaida can retaliate. Al qaida is nothing more than the Bloods or the crips now except they have rocket launchers and bombs.

Its like the war on drugs.....

But now Im starting to get political so I will end here.

 

[Likwid24]

Yes I don't want to get political. I was saying that because I believe the fear will remain and the dollar will continue to go down, meanwhile precious metals will go up.

 

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[Guest3722A]

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[video=youtube;3Xa65U7WPKM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xa65U7WPKM&feature=player_embedded#at=391[/video]

 

[max momo]

Tophera,

Don’t trade futures, I trade Bullion/coins; stocks; and ETFs.

If you are wondering due to the prices quoted above, I TYPICALLY (but not always) use spot NYMEX/GLOBEX. If silver goes into backwardtardation will sometimes use out months chart prices for technical analysis. Also, in the past have used CCE/Teletype or Intelliquote prices when the physical supply is really tight. Furthermore, the long term charts must be normalized/log anyway; New York/London close averaged. So, the point is I don’t get to hung up on exact price points; that is why I sometimes round them off to whole dollar amounts or print $34.xx. The general pivot point is close enough for me; will rarely catch exact top/bottom anyway. Also prefer longer term trades over these shorter ones, but when the volatility arrives MUST take advantage, eh?

Physical supply is actually pretty tight right now for 1 and 10 ounce bars. 1,000 ounce bars are also tight – Sunshine is WAY over-ordered right now.

Regarding STOPS
I rarely place market stops, just lets the MM run over the positions. I always have a mental stop based upon my trading plan. Much of my trading plan depends upon my physical/bullion and stock position; and that is often outside of my control.

 

[Guest3722A]

Max if it's never been a consideration, I think you would do well in the futures market if not for trading, but at the least as a hedge to future prices, possibly for your business. And yes, I can relate to that physical stop thing in stock markets. Gotta love them MMs eh?

Your discovery of quotes is interesting and reminds of one of the guys interviewed in one of Schwager's books where he would find a discrepancy in exchange prices for a commodity and buy it in one market and immediately sell it in the offset market, collecting the spread. Wash, rinse, repeat and the guy is quite wealthy many times over.

 

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[max momo]

And now that I bought back in Silver at $34.xx, plan to sell at the upcoming resistance levels which previously had been support targets. Support levels when the trend is up become resistance when the trend is down. So, plan to sell at 38 and/or $41.20.

Ok, that purchase is up 10% in three trading days. That IS THE EASY MONEY. Many folks trying to make a living on 3.8$ T-bill yeilds.

Selling Silver RIGHT NOW at NY spot 37.70 locks in a VERY NICE 3-day trade. Note that 38 should provide resistance. I think we can get btw 38-41.20 on the upside on this run, but the risk increases starting right here. fwiw.

 

[^eagle^]

Nice dead cat bounce on silver. Caught the final e/u trade on the triple play waterfall it so loves to do. Now ranging it til More bad news out of europe sends it down some more.

 

[CEBenz]

Watching with interest

 

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[max momo]

As suspected, the prevous lower trend rail at $38.xx is now strong resistance; $37.70 was the right sell - hope some of you caught that!