Parabolic & Other Stocks to Short

[Guest3722A]

Through my research of stocks that I would consider trading, I occasionally run into the emotionally driven stock that went parabolic, and as most seasoned traders know, most of these moves will correct. So seeing that trading is boring, I figured I'd try to post anything that may be a watch for a short side trade, as I find 'em and when I have time.

The first one that I want to add to the list is: BVF which basically went from sub 15 to about 19.5 in a week. This morning the target price of it was raised to $25 by Deutsche Bank and I think it may correct before/if it makes the move. So let's watch and see what happens.

 

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[BurnBright]

Top,

Took a quick look at this one. It is a bit of a special situation with the merger with VRX so i would recommend some fundamental analysis on this one.
Telsa may be good for a short term short when it becomes available (forget if it is unavailable to short just the first day or the first three days) lots of hype driving it to now a 2 billion dollar market cap which is hard to justify yet. If I remember correctly the first month has a limit to the sell side promotions of the stock so that may present a opportunity before they decide to prime it to distribute it. Of course you will need to be careful with it due to its hype it could easily go to 4 billion on that.
edit: If it goes below the $17 issue price it could go to ten or lower. Reasoning currently selling for about 20x sales and already increasing burn rate in the first quarter think they will need to raise $ again soon. It is a cool car company but still a car company.

 

[Guest3722A]

" lots of hype driving it to now a 2 billion dollar market cap which is hard to justify yet."

Nice! Thanks -will definitely check it out!

 

[Guest3722A]

Burn Bright- I just found this on BVF:

The Briscoe Law Firm and Cash Powers Taylor Announce Shareholder Investigation into the Merger of Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intern


DALLAS, Jun 29, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
The Briscoe Law Firm, PLLC, founded by a former state prosecutor and enforcement attorney for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, and the law firm of Cash Powers Taylor, LLP are investigating potential legal claims against the Board of Directors of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International ("Valeant") (NYSE: VRX | PowerRating) relating to the proposed merger of Valeant with Biovail (NYSE/TSX: BVF | PowerRating).

The proposed transaction, which was announced on Monday, June 21, 2010, is valued at approximately $3.2 billion. Under the terms of the acquisition agreement, Valeant's shareholders will receive a one-time "special cash dividend" of $16.77 per share immediately prior to the closing of the merger, and 1.7809 shares of Biovail common stock upon the closing of the merger, for each share of Valeant stock owned. Upon completion, Biovail stockholders will own 50.5 percent of the combined entity, and Valeant stockholders will own 49.5 percent. Based on preliminary review and the closing price of Biovail's common stock the day before the merger announcement, it appears that the offer to Valeant shareholders may not be adequate. The investigation relates to possible breaches of fiduciary duty and other violations of state law by the Board of Directors of Valeant for approving this transaction, whether the consideration to be received by Valeant shareholders is fair, and whether Valeant's Board of Directors acted in the shareholders' best interests.

If you currently own shares of Valeant and would like additional information regarding this investigation, or if you have information regarding the allegations involving this transaction, please contact Patrick Powers at Cash Powers Taylor, LLP, toll free (877) 728-9607, via e-mail at patrick@cptlawfirm.com, or The Briscoe Law Firm at (214) 706-9314, or via email at WBriscoe@TheBriscoeLawFirm.com. There is no cost or fee to you.

The Briscoe Law Firm is a business litigation, commercial transaction, and public advocacy firm with experience in complex litigation, transactional matters, governmental relations and advocacy efforts.

Cash Powers Taylor, LLP is a litigation and corporate transactional law firm that handles a variety of complex commercial and business litigation matters, including claims of investor and stockholder fraud, shareholder oppression, and high-profile business disputes.

SOURCE: Cash Powers Taylor, LLP

 

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[Guest3722A]

Just for fun, $17.50-$17.75 to close short on BVF. Stop at $19.23

 

[Guest3722A]

By the way, TSLA does look like it would be a very nice short, but for me, it is currently out of the range of my strategy, and unfortunately, it wouldn't be the first nice trade I have to let go!! :smxE: Thank you though Burn Bright for that suggestion.

Rep+

 

[Guest3722A]

copano energy CPNO,
BJ's wholesale BJ, heh heh he said BJ
IDT corp IDT,
Hawk corp HWK,
CPI Aerostructures Inc CVU

 

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[BurnBright]

HWK and CVU have way to low volume for anything that I would touch if I am looking at the right numbers in google finance. Top, are these hitting your screen for pure technical/price action reasons?

How about that TSLA? If you could of got shares the next day you'd have a nice 3 day 30% return. Makes me want to start trading again.

 

[Guest3722A]

HWK and CVU have way to low volume for anything that I would touch if I am looking at the right numbers in google finance. Top, are these hitting your screen for pure technical/price action reasons?

How about that TSLA? If you could of got shares the next day you'd have a nice 3 day 30% return. Makes me want to start trading again.

Hey Bright!

Yeah TSLA was a beauty. I hope you keep posting here and with calls like that you should trade. And yeah, so far what I'm listing is only technical based. And you are right, HWK and CVU are low volume.

I haven't really put any serious research in yet as I've been waiting for an investor group to 'get it together' but something tells me I'm going to be waiting forever with these guys, so to make a long story short, I initially had two years of living expenses saved up so that I had something to live on while trading 'their' account but seeing that they're still not ready/ dragging their feet, I just took half of my savings and switched over to the driver's seat. It's time to make a move and be in control. My check goes out tomorrow. :smxB: Wish me luck!

So why did you quit trading?

 

[BurnBright]

Hi Top,

The reason I stopped trading is because I was getting bored with it and did not like the lack of social interaction that came with the game. Once I started losing interest I stopped taking the time necessary to plan out strategies and trades. This led to losses that were not necessary. I was lucky enough to realize my errors and stop before doing major damage. Eventually I will get back into active trading but will keep it on a longer term basis and as a secondary income source only.
That being said with a good solid plan and willingness to change with the market you can do well, good luck. I will try to post if I see anything interesting happening.

 

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[Jonleehacker]

I looked at shorting Tesla, but wasn't able to borrow the shares. In fact they still show as "hard to borrow" on my account.

I understand that a lot of IPOs block shorting for a certain length of time after the shares hit the market.

 

[Guest3722A]

I looked at shorting Tesla, but wasn't able to borrow the shares. In fact they still show as "hard to borrow" on my account.

I understand that a lot of IPOs block shorting for a certain length of time after the shares hit the market.

I kinda had a sneaking suspicion that Goldman Sachs underwrote this one after seeing the ballistic drop, and guess what?

Tesla Motors' underwriters sell more shares

Cramer complained in his book 'a street addict' about GS fiercely shorting thestreet after they underwrote it's ipo and outlined the ipo process and what underwriters 'do' to secure their investment.

 

[BurnBright]

I never checked the availability of it but my broker shows 100k available now. A few days ago that might not of been the case. I checked the rules and you are able to short IPO's just the availability of the shares are usually limited during the first day of trading and I also believe some retail brokers have a restriction on it. Not sure about GS, the share sale was only 13 million so the over allotment could not be to large, anyway they would of been selling on the way up rather then driving it under the issue price.

I would keep apple on the short radar, not that they are overpriced or anything. It is just that they are starting to get some bad press around quality issues with the iPhone 4, security issues with iTunes and I am sure there will be some anti-trust issues more heavily discussed soon. So if there is a technical reason to short it may be worth a punt.

 

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[Guest3722A]

I would keep apple on the short radar, not that they are overpriced or anything. It is just that they are starting to get some bad press around quality issues with the iPhone 4, security issues with iTunes and I am sure there will be some anti-trust issues more heavily discussed soon. So if there is a technical reason to short it may be worth a punt.

right on. Currently, today was strong technically for AAPL as it appeared (to me) to move with the indices. My concern is that the DJIA looks to be nearing resistance of a downward trendline that may have begun around the 27th of April. Same with SPX and nasdaq. Imo, 270ish is the spot to watch for resistance on AAPL.

 

[Guest3722A]

ARMH currently blasting off to the moon! & keeping an eye on IDT as it looks like it might be getting tired.

 

[Guest3722A]

ADCT another "buyout" with lawsuits pending...went parabolic. This is getting interesting.

HEW buyout with lawsuit
IVN arbitration talks
MEND same
ACAP same


IGTE blasting off to the moon on heavy institutional activity
WES too. WES looks good for a bull move with the volume breaking out
APKT breaking out of base on institutional activity

 

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[Guest3722A]

NTY

NBTY, Inc. (NBTY) is a vertically integrated manufacturer, marketer and retailer of a line of nutritional supplements in the United States and throughout the world. The Company markets approximately 25,000 products under numerous brands, including Nature’s Bounty, Ester-C, Solgar, MET-Rx, American Health, Osteo Bi-Flex, Flex-A-Min, SISU, Knox, Sundown, Rexall, Pure Protein, Body Fortress, WORLDWIDE Sport Nutrition, Natural Wealth, Puritan's Pride, Holland & Barrett, GNC (UK), Physiologics, Le Naturiste, De Tuinen, Julian Graves and Vitamin World. The Company’s vertical integration includes the purchase of raw materials, formulating and manufacturing products, which it markets through the four channels of distribution: Wholesale/United States Nutrition, North American Retail, European Retail and Direct Response/E-Commerce. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2009 (fiscal 2009), the Company manufactured approximately 90% of the nutritional supplements it sold.

...another acquisition with law suits. Does this seem odd to anyone?

 

[Guest3722A]

Another IPO!

RLD RealD Soars In IPO, As Theater Owners Bet On 3-D Movies - IBD - Investors.com

 

[Guest3722A]

Fwiw I jammed today with a LONG position in....... BVF! Yes Biovail!

Still holding will most likely sell in first 20 minutes Monday before the days first reversal.

two days back trading and my equity curve is off to a great start! Yeah baby!!

 

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[Guest3722A]

MLNX may be a good channel short! Check it out!

 

[Guest3722A]

Heavy institutional activity!

IGTE VNR MRX AMT

MLNX played in well to the channel short mentioned above too.

I'm pissed cuz I missed the move on IDT today!!! Was watching it too and stepped away for a few. it did draw a bullish engulfing candle tho and I do have a limit in for tomorrow but it's low & I ain't chasing it if it doesn't get picked up!

 

[Guest3722A]

I took a small loss today in idt as it was looking good but then it was feeling a bit 'tired' if that makes sense to anybody and then bernanke came out with his verbiage about the weakening economy and the djia that was flat took a nose dive taking idt with it. I knew I'd be rusty for the first couple weeks and I'm ok with that as I know the precision I'm capable of once I'm in the game for a bit.

As a trader who's working towards being a licensed professional so I can trade prop, I'm well aware that the focus needs to be on 'how much I can lose' v. the 'how much I can make' mentality which is why I pulled the trigger to sell at a small loss because the elimination of the emotional "it will come back" is one of the keys towards a profitable system.

My equity curve, although less than a week old, is still positive. My plan is to compound my account at a rate of 10-25% month for the first year for which I will then have enough to live off of for the next year as well as get myself even, pay for my series 7 and be able to fund my prop account.
Currently my account is small enough to enable this type of growth provided my system, my mind, and my edge stays intact. And I am aware that compounding at this rate is not realistic once higher levels are achieved which is why proprietary leverage would then be necessary.

For those who have their doubts about rapid fastlane growth with trading, please consider reading this journal kindly provided by one of the few rockstars on et: Forums - Grinding it out, day after day

The trader who's writing this journal started this year with (I believe) $10,000 and currently is up around $500k. A graph of his equity curve is on page 166 of his journal. He was able to achieve these numbers by using proprietary leverage.

Also keep in mind that once I reach a target level my goal is to put the real plan in place which is a system I designed that I believe will work towards greatly reducing poverty in America and other parts of the world.

But currently I'm walking the walk, or should I say crawling the crawl?:smx4:

 

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[Guest3722A]

One more thing I feel the need to clarify here as I'm noticing that many have the wrong idea about trading.

Trading and investing are two completely different worlds and are NOT the same thing.

Trading deals with short term time periods and investing deals with long term time periods.

I'm mentioning this here because in reading other threads it seems that most don't know this. :huh2::nono:

 

[Guest3722A]

MLNX may be a good channel short! Check it out!

wish I woulda taken my own advice on this one!

it was down 48% today!! it's ok though, i'll be back in the zone soon enough and i run into these often...

anyway, LFL is going parabolic as is CPX

 

[SKM430]

I don't know if you guys touch ETFs or not but the triple-leverged ones, BGU and FAS and their short counterparts can make for good returns in the volatile market if you day- or swingtrade.

 

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[Guest3722A]

I don't know if you guys touch ETFs or not but the triple-leverged ones, BGU and FAS and their short counterparts can make for good returns in the volatile market if you day- or swingtrade.

Hey there SKM430! Welcome! Yes, I've traded ETFs on occasion and have developed quite an extensive list of em. SSG (triple semi bear) was one I would trade a while back and what I liked about it was that it was almost an exact opposite of AMAT, so for pairs traders, this may have been a good match.

FAS and FAZ I've heard alot about but never traded them. Can i assume you like these types of leveraged etfs? If so, I'd be interested in learning of your experience.

 

[Guest3722A]

MSB 12.92% yield

The trustees of Mesabi Trust (NYSE: MSB | PowerRating) announced on Thursday a distribution of USD0.80 per unit of beneficial interest.

This will be paid on 20 August 2010 to unitholders of record at the close of business on 30 July 2010.

The trust did not declare a distribution for the same period last year.

 

[Jonleehacker]

MSB 12.92% yield

The trustees of Mesabi Trust (NYSE: MSB | PowerRating) announced on Thursday a distribution of USD0.80 per unit of beneficial interest.

This will be paid on 20 August 2010 to unitholders of record at the close of business on 30 July 2010.

The trust did not declare a distribution for the same period last year.

Not seeing the short on this one, in general I stay away from anything with a big dividend when shorting... don't want to get caught paying some dude's yield.

 

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[Guest3722A]

Not seeing the short on this one, in general I stay away from anything with a big dividend when shorting... don't want to get caught paying some dude's yield.

Agree. But the ex date I believe is this Friday so wouldn't you think that after Friday it would come back down to earth seeing how over-bought it currently is? Or in a case like this, do you think the b band has a better chance of going to the price instead of the price reverting back to the mean?

 

[Jonleehacker]

Agree. But the ex date I believe is this Friday so wouldn't you think that after Friday it would come back down to earth seeing how over-bought it currently is? Or in a case like this, do you think the b band has a better chance of going to the price instead of the price reverting back to the mean?

I had another look and you are right, good short candidate. I don't use b bands, but it sure is a LONG way away from the moving averages, so a drop would be expected.

For me I would be looking for a rejection candle and go short when the low of the rejection candle is broken.

Dividend still scares me and I think the easy money will be made on this one before Friday.

I may see if there is a day trade on this one tomorrow... will let you know.