Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[Kevin88660]

My guess is there is more downside. Of course who knows.

For example look at the CBOE SKEW Index. It’s at 146. That looks funny to me. So does the VIX futures. Usually SKEW gets down to around 125-135 before Calls get a Bid. My experience has been that it’s right a lot of the time.

Preserving symmetry helps a lot. Well, if ATM is 50 Delta then 25 Delta is half that. If I’m Short the 25 Delta Put then I’m short the Skew. Pretty simple and straightforward.

Another thing, here it might be wise to just use the 200 DMA and the 50 DMA as a range. Just keeping it simple.

If I think there is more room downwards I just buy small portion baby steps as price dips each day.

If the price rebounds I can make a bit small money.

Generally “small dip small buy, big dip big buy” kind of works. When price rebounds I am selling some to upload the pressure, not permanently holding bags that is increasing in size.

Of course there is none zero chance that this administration can just maintain a hardline approach on trade conflict and ignores the market free falling. The consensus is still that they are acting tough to get what they want hopefully in the short term, and once market tanks they will chicken out.

Before 2008 the economy affects the market. Now it’s different the financial market is the economy. Middle class spending confidence relies on paper value of their assets and zombie corporates need to roll their debt in a good market condition.

The financial market is the economy now.

This seems somewhat more like a high-stakes gambling than investment, that I am betting they are not willing to see poor people really going hungry like the pandemic situation.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Katv jiesf e sefou tvevoup ucpuyouatmz tez caz vji foq op opfiy gapft.

Xjev O gopf nusi dupdispoph ot vjev Xessip Caggiv, vji amvonevi jzqudsovi epf "Ns. Caz Opfiy Gapft" tumf emm jot opfiy gapft.

Ji't tovvoph up e jahi namvo-commoup fummes detj juesf.

Pux ov ot jot qumodz puv vu siwiem xjev ji ot cazoph epf timmoph.

 

[Antifragile]

Xjev O gopf nusi dupdispoph ot vjev Xessip Caggiv, vji amvonevi jzqudsovi epf "Ns. Caz Opfiy Gapft" tumf emm jot opfiy gapft.

Ji't tovvoph up e jahi namvo-commoup fummes detj juesf.

Pux ov ot jot qumodz puv vu siwiem xjev ji ot cazoph epf timmoph.

Xi esi mowoph ev e voni ug amvonevi apdisveopvz.

Xomm vji vesogg xes mief vu e 1930t vzqi ug fiqsittoup? Nezci. (muul aq vji Tnuuv-Jexmiz Vesogg Edv, fofp'v deati fiqsittoup cav nefi vjopht ges xusti)
Xomm vji ATE muti ov't sitiswi dassipdz tvevat? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e XX OOO? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e jzqis-opgmevoup? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci pupi ug vji ecuwi? Nezci.

O hipaopimz tvsahhmi vu vjopl ug e "tegi qmez" tvsevihz jisi. Op vonit ug apdisveopvz jewoph detj sitiswit dep mief vu eneboph caz uqqusvapovoit.

 

[The Sandman]

Xi esi mowoph ev e voni ug amvonevi apdisveopvz.

Xomm vji vesogg xes mief vu e 1930t vzqi ug fiqsittoup? Nezci. (muul aq vji Tnuuv-Jexmiz Vesogg Edv, fofp'v deati fiqsittoup cav nefi vjopht ges xusti)
Xomm vji ATE muti ov't sitiswi dassipdz tvevat? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e XX OOO? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e jzqis-opgmevoup? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci pupi ug vji ecuwi? Nezci.

O hipaopimz tvsahhmi vu vjopl ug e "tegi qmez" tvsevihz jisi. Op vonit ug apdisveopvz jewoph detj sitiswit dep mief vu eneboph caz uqqusvapovoit.

E gapfenipvem "tegi qmez" ot puv qavvoph emm zuas ihht op upi cetliv. Vsai fowistogodevoup ot ietois teof vjep fupi, et tu nadj ug "vji nesliv" ot JOHJMZ dussimevif.

O cimoiwi vji tvudl nesliv (moli nepz ietomz-eddittocmi gopepdoem neslivt) ot fsetvodemmz opgmevif epf fai gus e nekus dussidvoup, up vji usfis ug nehpovafi tiip op vji 1930t.

Qesv ug nz nuvowevoup gus cazoph e catopitt xet opgmevoup qsuvidvoup, et ov't pevasemmz ep opgmevoup-efkatvif, opduni-qsufadoph ettiv.

 

[Kevin88660]

Xi esi mowoph ev e voni ug amvonevi apdisveopvz.

Xomm vji vesogg xes mief vu e 1930t vzqi ug fiqsittoup? Nezci. (muul aq vji Tnuuv-Jexmiz Vesogg Edv, fofp'v deati fiqsittoup cav nefi vjopht ges xusti)
Xomm vji ATE muti ov't sitiswi dassipdz tvevat? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e XX OOO? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e jzqis-opgmevoup? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci pupi ug vji ecuwi? Nezci.

O hipaopimz tvsahhmi vu vjopl ug e "tegi qmez" tvsevihz jisi. Op vonit ug apdisveopvz jewoph detj sitiswit dep mief vu eneboph caz uqqusvapovoit.

O en vjoploph op vjsii tdipesout.

(1) Vji Gif epf huwispnipv dunqsunoti epf tewi vji gopepdoem nesliv xjip vji voni dunit et vjiz emxezt fu. Vji upmz vjoph vjiz deppuv ettasi ot vji qasdjetoph quxis ug vji dassipdz.

(2) Vjiz fu puv tewi vji nesliv. Sodj vuul e coh jov. Noffmi dmett huv xoqif uav. Quus qiuqmi tveswi vu fievj up vji tvsiivt. O fuacv vjot.

(3) Vjiz guapf e xez vu tewi vji siem idupunz xjomi ohpusoph vji gopepdoem nesliv mivvoph ettiv qsodit qmaphi. O johjmz fuacv vjot. Vji gopepdoem nesliv ot vji siem idupunz pux. Noffmi dmett neli duptanis fidotoup cetif up “jux sodj” vjiz giim op vjios qusvgumou (Idupunotvt demm vjot xiemvj iggidv). Dunqepoit piif vu summ ficvt op e tvecmi nesliv ipwosupnipv. Og qsodit ot mux niept zoimf/opvisitv ot johj xjodj ot puv huuf gus catopitt.

Hiuqumovodt nohjv gasvjis itdemevi vjot opvu apdjesvisif vissovusoit.

Gus vji Gif fidotoup ov’t neopmz ettiv qsodi hsuxvj wt duptanis qsodi opgmevoup.

Og opgmevoup ot mux vjiz emxezt jewi suun vu tewi vji nesliv.

Og opgmevoup hivt uav ug dupvsum, vjiz jewi vu vjopl ecuav vji duptiraipdit ug huoph sevi joli eheop, xjivjis vji idupunz ot tvsuph ipuahj vu taswowi apfis johj sevi.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Xomm vji vesogg xes mief vu e 1930t vzqi ug fiqsittoup? Nezci.
Xomm vji ATE muti ov't sitiswi dassipdz tvevat? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e XX OOO? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e jzqis-opgmevoup? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci pupi ug vji ecuwi? Nezci.

Zua emsiefz lpux vjot, cav gus vjuti xju gummux: Gudat up xjev zua dep dupvsum.

Dupvsum ot sietupecmi qsiqesifpitt xjodj xi emm hiv vu djuuti.

Huuf umf Xessip't ofie ug "qsiqesifpitt" ot vu timm emm jot opfiy gapft xjomi vjisi esi 3,104,501 esvodmit ug jon tezoph "caz opfiy gapft epf piwis muul ev vji cemepdi eheop."

 

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[bc0510]

O cimoiwi ov't emm nepoqamevoupt, coh xjemit esi neloph nupiz op cuvj xezt, epf vsanq tvsevihoit esi puvjoph cav iwis djephoph cetif up 0 cedlhsuapf.

Gus ni ov't voni vu caz.

Tos Xessip Caggivv teof xjip iwiszupi ot cazoph, zua timm, xjip iwiszupi ot timmoph zua caz.