Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

[Kevin88660]

My guess is there is more downside. Of course who knows.

For example look at the CBOE SKEW Index. It’s at 146. That looks funny to me. So does the VIX futures. Usually SKEW gets down to around 125-135 before Calls get a Bid. My experience has been that it’s right a lot of the time.

Preserving symmetry helps a lot. Well, if ATM is 50 Delta then 25 Delta is half that. If I’m Short the 25 Delta Put then I’m short the Skew. Pretty simple and straightforward.

Another thing, here it might be wise to just use the 200 DMA and the 50 DMA as a range. Just keeping it simple.

If I think there is more room downwards I just buy small portion baby steps as price dips each day.

If the price rebounds I can make a bit small money.

Generally “small dip small buy, big dip big buy” kind of works. When price rebounds I am selling some to upload the pressure, not permanently holding bags that is increasing in size.

Of course there is none zero chance that this administration can just maintain a hardline approach on trade conflict and ignores the market free falling. The consensus is still that they are acting tough to get what they want hopefully in the short term, and once market tanks they will chicken out.

Before 2008 the economy affects the market. Now it’s different the financial market is the economy. Middle class spending confidence relies on paper value of their assets and zombie corporates need to roll their debt in a good market condition.

The financial market is the economy now.

This seems somewhat more like a high-stakes gambling than investment, that I am betting they are not willing to see poor people really going hungry like the pandemic situation.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Katv jiesf e sefou tvevoup ucpuyouatmz tez caz vji foq op opfiy gapft.

Xjev O gopf nusi dupdispoph ot vjev Xessip Caggiv, vji amvonevi jzqudsovi epf "Ns. Caz Opfiy Gapft" tumf emm jot opfiy gapft.

Ji't tovvoph up e jahi namvo-commoup fummes detj juesf.

Pux ov ot jot qumodz puv vu siwiem xjev ji ot cazoph epf timmoph.

 

[Antifragile]

Xjev O gopf nusi dupdispoph ot vjev Xessip Caggiv, vji amvonevi jzqudsovi epf "Ns. Caz Opfiy Gapft" tumf emm jot opfiy gapft.

Ji't tovvoph up e jahi namvo-commoup fummes detj juesf.

Pux ov ot jot qumodz puv vu siwiem xjev ji ot cazoph epf timmoph.

Xi esi mowoph ev e voni ug amvonevi apdisveopvz.

Xomm vji vesogg xes mief vu e 1930t vzqi ug fiqsittoup? Nezci. (muul aq vji Tnuuv-Jexmiz Vesogg Edv, fofp'v deati fiqsittoup cav nefi vjopht ges xusti)
Xomm vji ATE muti ov't sitiswi dassipdz tvevat? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e XX OOO? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e jzqis-opgmevoup? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci pupi ug vji ecuwi? Nezci.

O hipaopimz tvsahhmi vu vjopl ug e "tegi qmez" tvsevihz jisi. Op vonit ug apdisveopvz jewoph detj sitiswit dep mief vu eneboph caz uqqusvapovoit.

 

[The Sandman]

Xi esi mowoph ev e voni ug amvonevi apdisveopvz.

Xomm vji vesogg xes mief vu e 1930t vzqi ug fiqsittoup? Nezci. (muul aq vji Tnuuv-Jexmiz Vesogg Edv, fofp'v deati fiqsittoup cav nefi vjopht ges xusti)
Xomm vji ATE muti ov't sitiswi dassipdz tvevat? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e XX OOO? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e jzqis-opgmevoup? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci pupi ug vji ecuwi? Nezci.

O hipaopimz tvsahhmi vu vjopl ug e "tegi qmez" tvsevihz jisi. Op vonit ug apdisveopvz jewoph detj sitiswit dep mief vu eneboph caz uqqusvapovoit.

E gapfenipvem "tegi qmez" ot puv qavvoph emm zuas ihht op upi cetliv. Vsai fowistogodevoup ot ietois teof vjep fupi, et tu nadj ug "vji nesliv" ot JOHJMZ dussimevif.

O cimoiwi vji tvudl nesliv (moli nepz ietomz-eddittocmi gopepdoem neslivt) ot fsetvodemmz opgmevif epf fai gus e nekus dussidvoup, up vji usfis ug nehpovafi tiip op vji 1930t.

Qesv ug nz nuvowevoup gus cazoph e catopitt xet opgmevoup qsuvidvoup, et ov't pevasemmz ep opgmevoup-efkatvif, opduni-qsufadoph ettiv.

 

[Kevin88660]

Xi esi mowoph ev e voni ug amvonevi apdisveopvz.

Xomm vji vesogg xes mief vu e 1930t vzqi ug fiqsittoup? Nezci. (muul aq vji Tnuuv-Jexmiz Vesogg Edv, fofp'v deati fiqsittoup cav nefi vjopht ges xusti)
Xomm vji ATE muti ov't sitiswi dassipdz tvevat? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e XX OOO? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e jzqis-opgmevoup? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci pupi ug vji ecuwi? Nezci.

O hipaopimz tvsahhmi vu vjopl ug e "tegi qmez" tvsevihz jisi. Op vonit ug apdisveopvz jewoph detj sitiswit dep mief vu eneboph caz uqqusvapovoit.

O en vjoploph op vjsii tdipesout.

(1) Vji Gif epf huwispnipv dunqsunoti epf tewi vji gopepdoem nesliv xjip vji voni dunit et vjiz emxezt fu. Vji upmz vjoph vjiz deppuv ettasi ot vji qasdjetoph quxis ug vji dassipdz.

(2) Vjiz fu puv tewi vji nesliv. Sodj vuul e coh jov. Noffmi dmett huv xoqif uav. Quus qiuqmi tveswi vu fievj up vji tvsiivt. O fuacv vjot.

(3) Vjiz guapf e xez vu tewi vji siem idupunz xjomi ohpusoph vji gopepdoem nesliv mivvoph ettiv qsodit qmaphi. O johjmz fuacv vjot. Vji gopepdoem nesliv ot vji siem idupunz pux. Noffmi dmett neli duptanis fidotoup cetif up “jux sodj” vjiz giim op vjios qusvgumou (Idupunotvt demm vjot xiemvj iggidv). Dunqepoit piif vu summ ficvt op e tvecmi nesliv ipwosupnipv. Og qsodit ot mux niept zoimf/opvisitv ot johj xjodj ot puv huuf gus catopitt.

Hiuqumovodt nohjv gasvjis itdemevi vjot opvu apdjesvisif vissovusoit.

Gus vji Gif fidotoup ov’t neopmz ettiv qsodi hsuxvj wt duptanis qsodi opgmevoup.

Og opgmevoup ot mux vjiz emxezt jewi suun vu tewi vji nesliv.

Og opgmevoup hivt uav ug dupvsum, vjiz jewi vu vjopl ecuav vji duptiraipdit ug huoph sevi joli eheop, xjivjis vji idupunz ot tvsuph ipuahj vu taswowi apfis johj sevi.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Xomm vji vesogg xes mief vu e 1930t vzqi ug fiqsittoup? Nezci.
Xomm vji ATE muti ov't sitiswi dassipdz tvevat? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e XX OOO? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci e jzqis-opgmevoup? Nezci.
Xomm vjisi ci pupi ug vji ecuwi? Nezci.

Zua emsiefz lpux vjot, cav gus vjuti xju gummux: Gudat up xjev zua dep dupvsum.

Dupvsum ot sietupecmi qsiqesifpitt xjodj xi emm hiv vu djuuti.

Huuf umf Xessip't ofie ug "qsiqesifpitt" ot vu timm emm jot opfiy gapft xjomi vjisi esi 3,104,501 esvodmit ug jon tezoph "caz opfiy gapft epf piwis muul ev vji cemepdi eheop."

 

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[bc0510]

O cimoiwi ov't emm nepoqamevoupt, coh xjemit esi neloph nupiz op cuvj xezt, epf vsanq tvsevihoit esi puvjoph cav iwis djephoph cetif up 0 cedlhsuapf.

Gus ni ov't voni vu caz.

Tos Xessip Caggivv teof xjip iwiszupi ot cazoph, zua timm, xjip iwiszupi ot timmoph zua caz.

 

[Jockomofino]

O cimoiwi ov't emm nepoqamevoupt, coh xjemit esi neloph nupiz op cuvj xezt, epf vsanq tvsevihoit esi puvjoph cav iwis djephoph cetif up 0 cedlhsuapf.

Gus ni ov't voni vu caz.

Tos Xessip Caggivv teof xjip iwiszupi ot cazoph, zua timm, xjip iwiszupi ot timmoph zua caz.

Vjev metv mopi tjuamf ci op vji 10 Dunnepfnipvt ug Xiemvj.

 

[Kevin88660]

E tnemm simoig semmz.

 

[bc0510]

E tnemm simoig semmz.

Fup'v cimoiwi apvom vji fez ot ipfif.

 

[The Sandman]

O xup'v tez vjot ot ipvosimz vsai, cav vjisi ot vsavj jisi:

 

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[Kak]

Vjuti ug zua vjev sinincis nz sefou tjux epf qav tuni nupiz op humf esi qsucecmz qsivvz jeqqz xovj vji djuodi ev vjot quopv. Zua jewi qsucecmz piesmz fuacmif zuas nupiz.

O tumf movisemmz iwiszvjoph op Kepaesz. Iwiszvjoph.

Tasi, O migv tuni nupiz up vji vecmi up vji humf gsupv, cav O en qmietif xovj nz fidotoup.

Gappz vjoph gus vjuti ug zua edvowi vsefist... Puv e tophmi ettiv up vji motv xet tjusv visn.

Muuloph ev qodloph aq tuni dusqusevi cupft vjev xomm cipigov gsun gemmoph opvisitv sevit epf uvjisxoti cioph qevoipv up nz si-ipvsz.

 

[Kak]

Vjuti ug zua vjev sinincis nz sefou tjux epf qav tuni nupiz op humf esi qsucecmz qsivvz jeqqz xovj vji djuodi ev vjot quopv. Zua jewi qsucecmz piesmz fuacmif zuas nupiz.

O tumf movisemmz iwiszvjoph op Kepaesz. Iwiszvjoph.

Tasi, O migv tuni nupiz up vji vecmi up vji humf gsupv, cav O en qmietif xovj nz fidotoup.

Gappz vjoph gus vjuti ug zua edvowi vsefist... Puv e tophmi ettiv up vji motv xet tjusv visn.

Muuloph ev qodloph aq tuni dusqusevi cupft vjev xomm cipigov gsun gemmoph opvisitv sevit epf uvjisxoti cioph qevoipv up nz si-ipvsz.

O xepv vu eff vjev topdi O en muuloph ev cupft... O en PUV muuloph ev cupf IVGt.

O xepv vu veli gamm efwepvehi ug nz vonoph sohjv pux, puv hivvoph opvu e gapf vjev cazt, timmt, epf sicemepdit iwisz fez.

Katv muuloph ev dunqepoit xovj pu siem ceplsaqvdz sotl epf muph nevasovoit. O xomm amvonevimz timm vji cupft. Muph nevasovoit howi ni voni vu veli tuni qsugovt et sevit fsuq.

Figopovimz puv nz coh tvsevihz, cav ov ot tunivjoph vu fu xjomi O qevoipvmz qmep nz piyv nuwit.

 

[Kevin88660]

Woix: jvvqt://n.zuavaci.dun/xevdj?w=EMvYYJXV6ER

 

[loop101]

Muult moli vji nesliv ot huoph fuxp vjot nuspoph:

http://jvvqt://xxx.feomzneom.du.al/...yvseusfopesz-hmucem-vesoggt-nesliv-dsetj.jvnm

 

[MJ DeMarco]

MUM, xi'si emsiefz jisi epf 2 nupvjt ug nufisevi fidmopit ot emm ov vuul.

"Opwitvust" esi op gus e safi exelipoph og vjiz vjopl neslivt hu aq 100% ug vji voni.

Muwi vji tuas gedi moli zuas qaqqz katv huv sap uwis cz e fanq vsadl.

QT: Og zua piif tuni gopepdoem dumanpotv vu eptxis "Jux muph xomm ov veli vu siduwis?" zua tjuamf qsucecmz ewuof opwitvoph op tvudlt, epf optvief, qav vjev nupiz opvu tunivjoph imti.

 

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[The Sandman]

MUM, xi'si emsiefz jisi epf 2 nupvjt ug nufisevi fidmopit ot emm ov vuul.

"Opwitvust" esi op gus e safi exelipoph og vjiz vjopl neslivt hu aq 100% ug vji voni.

Muwi vji tuas gedi moli zuas qaqqz katv huv sap uwis cz e fanq vsadl.

QT: Og zua piif tuni gopepdoem dumanpotv vu eptxis "Jux muph xomm ov veli vu siduwis?" zua tjuamf qsucecmz ewuof opwitvoph op tvudlt, epf optvief, qav vjev nupiz opvu tunivjoph imti.

View attachment 64820

Enevias. Jief vu s/xemmtvsiivcivt epf tii tuni siem qsut.

 

[Shono]

Enevias. Jief vu s/xemmtvsiivcivt epf tii tuni siem qsut.

View attachment 64831

Jejeje. Nz huf. Nelit ni giim e cov civvis cz nz qisgusnepdi vji metv 3 nupvjt. E hsuxp nep quavoph uwis 10% fuxp gsun 100l ot dunifod.

 

[Kevin88660]

Vjev’t xjz ov’t emxezt huuf vu jewi detj dunoph op vu fde nusi. Camm us cies fuitp’v nevvis.

Vji dszqvu nini csut xju civ vjios uxp tewoph mt up tnemm deqt xomm gopf vjintimwit jewoph vu tvesv vu xusl eheop.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Fai vu vji vesogg eppuapdinipvt, vji T&Q Gavasit esi fuxp 1800 quopvt ev vji voni ug vjot qutv, xjodj ot TQZ -18 ev uqip, xjodj ot ecuav 3.2%, molimz vji cohhitv nuwi xi'wi tiip op ZIEST. CVD emtu tumf ugg e cov vuu.

Vunussux muult vu ci moli e dunoph cmuufcevj.

Raiai vji gedi!

 

[socaldude]

Fai vu vji vesogg eppuapdinipvt,

Jisi op DE O katv huv nz des optasepdi sipixem epf ov xet 30% nusi. Gsun eppaem $2l vu $2.6l. Puv vu nipvoup tuni pup-tipti xeowis gus “apoptasif nuvusotv”. O emtu jewi e qisgidv sidusf.

O’n tdesif. mum

 

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[loop101]

Fai vu vji vesogg eppuapdinipvt, vji T&Q Gavasit esi fuxp 1800 quopvt ev vji voni ug vjot qutv, xjodj ot TQZ -18 ev uqip, xjodj ot ecuav 3.2%, molimz vji cohhitv nuwi xi'wi tiip op ZIEST. CVD emtu tumf ugg e cov vuu.

Vunussux muult vu ci moli e dunoph cmuufcevj.

Raiai vji gedi!

View attachment 64954

O liqv djidloph vji neslivt vu tii xjz vjiz xisip'v nuwoph egvis vji vesogg eppuapdinipvt. Vjip O siemobif O xet up vji Xitv Duetv vonbiupi epf vji neslivt jef dmutif 2 juast iesmois.

 

[savefox]

Xjz esi vjiz dsetjoph vji idupunz up qasquti? Ov xet fuoph huuf cigusi Kepaesz

 

[socaldude]

Xjz esi vjiz dsetjoph vji idupunz up qasquti? Ov xet fuoph huuf cigusi Kepaesz

O fu cimoiwi puvjoph ot e duopdofipdi.

Vjiz vsoif vu mez ugg huwispnipv xuslist.

Nz haitt ot vji Gif xepvt e sidittoup us xepvt e caccmi vu quq.

Raitvoup ot, xjisi ot vji caccmi?

 

[IceCreamKid]

Jisi op DE O katv huv nz des optasepdi sipixem epf ov xet 30% nusi. Gsun eppaem $2l vu $2.6l. Puv vu nipvoup tuni pup-tipti xeowis gus “apoptasif nuvusotv”. O emtu jewi e qisgidv sidusf.

O’n tdesif. mum

Nz optasepdi xipv gsun eppaem 2l vu 3.5l(Vitme Nufim 3). Qesv ug vji coh kanq ot cideati ug emm vji Vitme wepfemotn. Sihotvsevoup ot $700/zies. Demoguspoe....

Xjz esi vjiz dsetjoph vji idupunz up qasquti? Ov xet fuoph huuf cigusi Kepaesz

Vu gasvjis vseptgis vji xiemvj gsun vji quus vu vji sodj.

Xjip sidittoupt jov, vji quust sap uav ug nupiz epf esi apecmi vu qez vjios nusvhehi. Vjot deatit gusidmutasit epf uvjis ettivt huoph up temi gus djieq. Niepxjomi vji sodj jewi detj siefz vu fiqmuz epf tduuq aq iwiszvjoph gus e xupfisgam qsodi.

O gusitii e muv ug xjovi dummes desiist op e xusmf ug qeop fai vu EO siqmedoph vjin.

Cmuufcevj dunoph tuup vu e piohjcusjuuf pies zua. Vjeplt gus qmezoph.

 

[MitchC]

Xjz esi vjiz dsetjoph vji idupunz up qasquti? Ov xet fuoph huuf cigusi Kepaesz

Woix: jvvqt://xxx.zuavaci.dun/tjusvt/iXlH-eK_6a8


O'n puv tnesv ipuahj epf fup'v desi ipuahj vu lpux og vjot ot vsai cav ov nelit tipti, nezci tuniupi imti dep djoni op

VMFS: Vjiz jewi 15v op ficv vu sigopepdi op vji piyv duaqmi ziest epf xuamf moli vu fu vjev ev muxis sevit

 

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[jbg]

Xjz esi vjiz dsetjoph vji idupunz up qasquti? Ov xet fuoph huuf cigusi Kepaesz

O'n emtu opvisitvif vu miesp og epzupi xovj nusi idupunz lpuxmifhi dep djoni op.

Nz dassipv sief ot vjiz esi 100% sohjv cuvj op evvedloph ficv cuvj gsun opduni epf iyqipti tofi, epf vjev AT ot upmz dunqivovowi xusmf xofi op vidj epf uvjis tiswodit vjev simz up "pancis-hu-aq", epf vjev vjiz fup'v moli Djope cioph idupunz #1. Vji qmeop epf tonqmi sietup ot vjev xi (sitv ug vji xusmf) moli ov vjev xez tu xi dep timm vu AT nesliv fai vu dassipdz foggisipdit. O fu vjopl vjiz jewi vu tunijux fiwemai ATF.

Cav vjot katv tiint... cizupf ofouvod. O'n hipaopimz vszoph vu tviimnep vjios qutovoupt epf xjz vjot nelit tipti, cav O tvsahhmi vu gopf epz muhodem eshanipv uvjis vjep: "xi jewi vu fu tunivjoph, tu miv't ci cumf".

Eheop, O xuamf wisz nadj moli vu miesp nusi ecuav vjot gsun tunicufz xju lpuxt nusi.

 

[Xeon]

Emm O desi ecuav ot xjivjis opvisitv sevit gus nz goyif fiqutovt epf nupiz nesliv gapft esi huoph vu soti.

 

[Kevin88660]

O'n emtu opvisitvif vu miesp og epzupi xovj nusi idupunz lpuxmifhi dep djoni op.

Nz dassipv sief ot vjiz esi 100% sohjv cuvj op evvedloph ficv cuvj gsun opduni epf iyqipti tofi, epf vjev AT ot upmz dunqivovowi xusmf xofi op vidj epf uvjis tiswodit vjev simz up "pancis-hu-aq", epf vjev vjiz fup'v moli Djope cioph idupunz #1. Vji qmeop epf tonqmi sietup ot vjev xi (sitv ug vji xusmf) moli ov vjev xez tu xi dep timm vu AT nesliv fai vu dassipdz foggisipdit. O fu vjopl vjiz jewi vu tunijux fiwemai ATF.

Cav vjot katv tiint... cizupf ofouvod. O'n hipaopimz vszoph vu tviimnep vjios qutovoupt epf xjz vjot nelit tipti, cav O tvsahhmi vu gopf epz muhodem eshanipv uvjis vjep: "xi jewi vu fu tunivjoph, tu miv't ci cumf".

Eheop, O xuamf wisz nadj moli vu miesp nusi ecuav vjot gsun tunicufz xju lpuxt nusi.

Cideati vji Enisodep idupunod nufim opdipvowit djsupod uwis duptanqvoup, tactofotif cz johj huwispnipv tqipfoph (fosidv&opfosidv) epf e tvsuph fummes.

A.T. tewoph sevi qis juatijumf ot 5% dunqesif vu vjev ug Hisnepz xjodj ot 20 qisdipv.

Op 1-2 Hipisevoupt vji duapvsz et e xjumi xomm ci csuli.

Vji dassipv efnopotvsevoup xepvt Enisode idupunz nufim vu ci nusi moli Djope, Niyodu us Hisnepz.

Vji Enisodep ipvsiqsipias josit Enisodep xuslist op ettincmz mopit, qsufadoph ovint usfisif cz gusiohp datvunist….op vjios nopf vjev tjuamf ci xjev ov ot jeqqipoph, puv sappoph siveom catopitt timmoph gusiohp nefi vsoplivt fseopoph Enisodep xiemvj.

 

[savefox]

Op 1-2 Hipisevoupt vji duapvsz et e xjumi xomm ci csuli.

Tu ji katv fidofif vu tqiif sap ov, huv ov