I have no doubt that UBI will be a reality in our lifetimes. However, I argue that this isn't a positive development, quite the contrary, it will only exacerbate the problems we're already dealing with: lack of motivation, laziness, mental health issues. Imagine how handicapped people will become once they don't have to work anymore. Just spend a moment to imagine that. What will they do all day long?OK, let me go against the current here.
I believe that because of AI we are living an incredibly powerful time, where we are going to experience changes of the same magnitude as the invention of the press and the industrial revolution (or more recently, the internet).
I believe this will transform the way we work, learn, travel etc. Potentially also for the better, but... like any huge change that happened before, this will also create a lot of misery.
What I think is that the need to work will drop dramatically, and many people (40/50% of the working force?) will find themselves obsolete and with no job. Most of these people simply don't have the tools to adapt, recover and learn. What happens then? Also put into the picture all the "green" politics, with western government slowly limiting the consumption of goods in general (this is especially visible in Europe).
Unless we want to create a distopian future where half of the world is destined to be hungry and ill, I think the most realistic solution is a universal income, that should at least allow access to food, education and health care.
The question of course is: who pays? Well, once machines can do most of the work, is it that important?
Of course people creating value should keep earning more, and that's the incentive to be a producer, just like now.
I tell you what. They will suffocate in depression, anxiety, and hatred. Hatred that XYZ has more than them, and they live like rats. Depression because they have no impact, they are completely meaningless, they're not even needed to sweep the streets.
So yes, it will be bad without UBI, but I think it will be infinitely worse with UBI. It's just putting a bandage on a wound that cannot be closed – the fact that they won't be needed unless they make themselves needed.
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