Haven't posted in a few days, interesting to see people are still looking at this from the same lens as they were previously with zero to no change in
perspective which largely mirrors the situation on the ground.
The whole bully analogy does not apply here as the
Russian elite views this conflict as existential, very different from your typical bully which knows he can back off and target another victim if the original victim becomes too troublesome. The Russian elite have backed themselves/been backed into a corner by choice mostly by Putin and the reaction of the West. There are no off ramps here for the Russian leadership by the design of Putin it would seem, Russia now has to win in Ukraine or the entire Russian leadership class falls in Russia. Quite Machiavellian on the part of Putin, the Russian leadership must now assist in this plan he has(whatever it happens to be, no one quite knows).
I'm also surprised people here are surprised by alleged Russian chemical weapons use, happens in almost all wars. The US/Marines regularly use "Shake & Bake" tactics in the Middle East to "smoke out the enemy". This is using a chemical/smoke/explosive, etc to get the enemy out of their defensive positions. I'm also unsure what the actual moral difference is of using a bomb to kill someone vs a chemical , etc? Seems like a very semantic argument to again try to draw in NATO/US forces into the fight.
It's not going to happen, Ukraine is a proxy, it's a sacrificial lamb to give Russia a bloody nose and check them. Also if Russia is this monster/bully that has attacked Ukraine been on destruction and is constantly committing war crimes, what moral expectations can really be placed on them?
The number one thing we should be looking for is an off ramp to this war, a cease fire of some sort to delay more killing, unfortunately it increasingly looks like even Putin/Russian leadership has just decided to level Ukraine and keep the slow boil going. Putin is betting the West can't hold out politically and perhaps economically he is most likely right, with the election of Orban(Pro Putin) and Macron having trouble in France. The whole let's focus on the war to distract the domestic population trick western countries have used for so long isn't working as well as it used to. It's certainly not working for Biden, he can blame Bush Jr for that.
As for Ukraine, the next phase of this campaign is going to very deadly for the Ukrainians and unfortunately their country/civilization/population. It is my belief now that Putin wants this thing to drag on for his own purposes. The western countries like the US are now/about to enter financial recessions and if the Ukrainians think the domestic populations of those countries are going to support the hundreds of billions flowing to Ukraine to keep this thing going, while domestically the populations suffer.....
Interesting Links:
"Shake 'n' Bake;" it's not just for dinner anymore.
www.sandiegouniontribune.com